Forcing mechanisms of a heavy precipitation event in the southeastern Adriatic area     

Branka Ivančan-Picek  Kristian Horvath  Nataša Strelec Mahović  Marjana Gajić-Čapka 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):1231-1252

The aim of this study was to identify the main mesoscale features and mechanisms responsible for the generation of an extreme precipitation event as a contribution to improving the modelling of processes that produce HPEs. The event occurred during the morning hours on 22 November 2010 over the Dubrovnik coast in Croatia and the hinterland mountain range of the southern Dinaric Alps and caused severe flash floods and landslides and consequent interruption of traffic and electricity supply as well as other infrastructural damage. The analysis is geographically focused on the southern portion of the eastern Adriatic region, which is prone to relatively frequent heavy precipitation events that occur mostly in autumn. This area is one of the rainiest in Europe with expected annual amounts of precipitation greater than 5,000 mm in the mountainous hinterland. The mechanisms responsible for the formation of convection were analysed using synop measurements, satellite data and numerical experiments performed with the WRF model, which was set up at the convection-permitting resolution in the innermost domain. Satellite data were used to identify the precipitation systems and to estimate the intensity of the precipitation during the period of interest. The development of the precipitation system was connected to a strong large-scale ascent over the southern Italy and southern Adriatic due to the advection of warm air and cyclonic vorticity advection, which increases with height. The numerical simulations highlighted the essential role of a southerly low-level jet stream in the transport of warm and moist air towards the affected area. The convergence of two branches of low-level marine air favoured convection triggered over the coast and sea. Furthermore, numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the orography of the Dinaric Alps plays an essential role in the precipitation maximum over the mountainous hinterland, but also that the orography was not the crucial factor in the heavy precipitation near Dubrovnik. This study highlights the need for a dense network of observations, especially radar measurements, to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical forecasts via data assimilation.  相似文献   

Analyzing seismic imagery in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains to determine fluid nature and migration pathways: A case study from the Queen Charlotte Basin,offshore British Columbia     

Mathieu J. Duchesne  E. Julie Halliday  J. Vaughn Barrie 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2011,73(2):111-120

Combining time–amplitude and time–frequency information from seismic reflection data sets of different resolutions allows the analysis of anomalous reflections from very-shallow to great subsurface depths. Thus, it can enhance the imaging of subsurface features which have a frequency-dependent reflectivity such as gas. Analysing seismic data of different resolution in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains is a powerful method to determine hydrocarbon migration pathways from deep reservoirs to the seafloor. This interpretation method has been applied to the formerly-glaciated offshore Queen Charlotte Basin hosting several seafloor pockmarks and mounds associated with the leakage of underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs. Low-frequency shadows observed in the time–frequency domain provide evidence of different resolutions that several anomalous reflection amplitudes may be attributed to the occurrence of gas. The seismic imagery shows that gas uses a fault to migrate from deep reservoirs included in Upper Mesozoic strata towards secondary reservoirs located along the fault plane into Neogene layers. Once gas reaches a porous cut-and-fill succession, migration changes from structurally- to stratigraphically-controlled before gas leaks through unconsolidated Quaternary sediments forming the shallow subsurface to eventually seep at the seafloor where pockmarks and carbonate mounds are formed.  相似文献   

Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate     

Yves Tramblay  Luc Neppel  Julie Carreau  Emilia Sanchez‐Gomez 《水文研究》2012,26(25):3934-3944

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The art of adaptation: Living with climate change in the rural American Southwest     

Julie Brugger  Michael Crimmins 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1830-1840

As adaptation has come to the forefront in climate change discourse, research, and policy, it is crucial to consider the effects of how we interpret the concept. This paper draws attention to the need for interpretations that foster policies and institutions with the breadth and flexibility to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Social scientists have argued that, in practice, the standard definition of adaptation tends to prioritize economic over other values and technical over social responses, draw attention away from underlying causes of vulnerability and from the broader context in which adaptive responses take place, and exclude discussions of inequality, justice, and transformation. In this paper, we discuss an alternate understanding of adaptation, which we label “living with climate change,” that emerged from an ethnographic study of how rural residents of the U.S. Southwest understand, respond to, and plan for weather and climate in their daily lives, and we consider how it might inform efforts to develop a more comprehensive definition. The discussion brings into focus several underlying features of this lay conception of adaptation, which are crucial for understanding how adaptation actually unfolds on the ground: an ontology based on nature–society mutuality; an epistemology based on situated knowledge; practice based on performatively adjusting human activities to a dynamic biophysical and social environment; and a placed-based system of values. We suggest that these features help point the way toward a more comprehensive understanding of climate change adaptation, and one more fully informed by the understanding that we are living in the Anthropocene.  相似文献   

Impact of the winter North-Atlantic weather regimes on subtropical sea-surface height variability     

Nicolas Barrier  Anne-Marie Treguier  Christophe Cassou  Julie Deshayes 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1159-1171

Interannual variability of subtropical sea-surface-height (SSH) anomalies, estimated by satellite and tide-gauge data, is investigated in relation to wintertime daily North-Atlantic weather regimes. Sea-level anomalies can be viewed as proxies for the subtropical gyre intensity because of the intrinsic baroclinic structure of the circulation. Our results show that the strongest correlation between SSH and weather regimes is found with the so-called Atlantic-Ridge (AR) while no significant values are obtained for the other regimes, including those related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), known as the primary actor of the Atlantic dynamics. Wintertime AR events are characterized by anticyclonic wind anomalies off Europe leading to a northward shift of the climatological wind-stress curl. The latter affects subtropical SSH annual variability by altered Sverdrup balance and ocean Rossby wave dynamics propagating westward from the African coast towards the Caribbean. The use of a simple linear planetary geostrophic model allows to quantify those effects and confirms the primary importance of the winter season to explain the largest part of SSH interannual variability in the Atlantic subtropical gyre. Our results open new perspectives in the comprehension of North-Atlantic Ocean variability emphasizing the role of AR as a driver of interannual variability at least of comparable importance to NAO.  相似文献   

The danger of overvaluing methane’s influence on future climate change     

Julie K. Shoemaker  Daniel P. Schrag 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):903-914

Minimizing the future impacts of climate change requires reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) load in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic emissions include many types of GHG’s as well as particulates such as black carbon and sulfate aerosols, each of which has a different effect on the atmosphere, and a different atmospheric lifetime. Several recent studies have advocated for the importance of short timescales when comparing the climate impact of different climate pollutants, placing a high relative value on short-lived pollutants, such as methane (CH₄) and black carbon (BC) versus carbon dioxide (CO₂). These studies have generated confusion over how to value changes in temperature that occur over short versus long timescales. We show the temperature changes that result from exchanging CO₂ for CH₄ using a variety of commonly suggested metrics to illustrate the trade-offs involved in potential carbon trading mechanisms that place a high value on CH₄ emissions. Reducing CH₄ emissions today would lead to a climate cooling of approximately ~0.5 °C, but this value will not change greatly if we delay reducing CH₄ emissions by years or decades. This is not true for CO₂, for which the climate is influenced by cumulative emissions. Any delay in reducing CO₂ emissions is likely to lead to higher cumulative emissions, and more warming. The exact warming resulting from this delay depends on the trajectory of future CO₂ emissions but using one business-as usual-projection we estimate an increase of 3/4 °C for every 15-year delay in CO₂ mitigation. Overvaluing the influence of CH₄ emissions on climate could easily result in our “locking” the earth into a warmer temperature trajectory, one that is temporarily masked by the short-term cooling effects of the CH₄ reductions, but then persists for many generations.  相似文献   

Non-state governance and climate policy: the fossil fuel divestment movement     

Julie Ayling  Neil Gunningham 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):131-149

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Funding low-carbon investments in the absence of a carbon tax     

Julie Rozenberg  Stéphane Hallegatte  Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert  Jean-Charles Hourcade 《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):134-141

Introducing a carbon tax is difficult, partly because it suggests that current generations have to make sacrifices for the benefit of future generations. However, the climate change externality could be corrected without such a sacrifice. It is possible to set a carbon value, and use it to create ‘carbon certificates’ that can be accepted as part of commercial banks’ legal reserves. These certificates can be distributed to low-carbon projects, and be exchanged by investors against concessional loans, reducing capital costs for low-carbon projects. As the issuance of carbon certificates would increase the quantity of money, it will either lead to accelerated inflation or induce the Central Bank to raise interest rates. Low-carbon projects will thus have access to cheaper loans at the expense of either ‘regular’ investors (in case of higher interest rates) or of lenders and depositors (in case of accelerated inflation). Within this scheme, mitigation expenditures are compensated by a reduction in regular investments, so that immediate consumption is maintained. It uses future generation wealth to pay for a hedge against climate change. This framework is not as efficient as a carbon tax but is politically easier to implement and represents an interesting step in the trajectory towards a low-carbon economy.  相似文献   

The Zamama-Thor region of Io: Insights from a synthesis of mapping, topography, and Galileo spacecraft data     

David A. Williams  Laszlo P. Keszthelyi  Moses P. Milazzo  Julie A. Rathbun 《Icarus》2005,177(1):69-88

We have studied data from the Galileo spacecraft's three remote sensing instruments (Solid-State Imager (SSI), Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS), and Photopolarimeter-Radiometer (PPR)) covering the Zamama-Thor region of Io's antijovian hemisphere, and produced a geomorphological map of this region. This is the third of three regional maps we are producing from the Galileo spacecraft data. Our goal is to assess the variety of volcanic and tectonic materials and their interrelationships on Io using planetary mapping techniques, supplemented with all available Galileo remote sensing data. Based on the Galileo data analysis and our mapping, we have determined that the most recent geologic activity in the Zamama-Thor region has been dominated by two sites of large-scale volcanic surface changes. The Zamama Eruptive Center is a site of both explosive and effusive eruptions, which emanate from two relatively steep edifices (Zamama Tholi A and B) that appear to be built by both silicate and sulfur volcanism. A ∼100-km long flow field formed sometime after the 1979 Voyager flybys, which appears to be a site of promethean-style compound flows, flow-front SO₂ plumes, and adjacent sulfur flows. Larger, possibly stealthy, plumes have on at least one occasion during the Galileo mission tapped a source that probably includes S and/or Cl to produce a red pyroclastic deposit from the same vent from which silicate lavas were erupted. The Thor Eruptive Center, which may have been active prior to Voyager, became active again during the Galileo mission between May and August 2001. A pillanian-style eruption at Thor included the tallest plume observed to date on Io (at least 500 km high) and new dark lava flows. The plume produced a central dark pyroclastic deposit (probably silicate-rich) and an outlying white diffuse ring that is SO₂-rich. Mapping shows that several of the new dark lava flows around the plume vent have reoccupied sites of earlier flows. Unlike most of the other pillanian eruptions observed during the Galileo mission, the 2001 Thor eruption did not produce a large red ring deposit, indicating a relative lack of S and/or Cl gases interacting with the magma during that eruption. Between these two eruptive centers are two paterae, Thomagata and Reshef. Thomagata Patera is located on a large shield-like mesa and shows no signs of activity. In contrast, Reshef Patera is located on a large, irregular mesa that is apparently undergoing degradation through erosion (perhaps from SO₂-sapping or chemical decomposition of sulfur-rich material) from multiple secondary volcanic centers.  相似文献   

Near Infrared Spectra of two Asteroids with low Tisserand Invariant     

Julie Ziffer  Humberto Campins  Javier Licandro  Noemi Pinilla-Alonso  Yanga Fernandez  Schelte J. Bus 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2005,97(3-4):203-212

We present near infrared reflectance spectra from 0.8 to 2.5 μm of two asteroids with low Tisserand invariant, 1373 Cincinnati and 2906 Caltech. We compare our spectra with cometary nuclei and other asteroids in their class. Asteroids Cincinnati and Caltech have Tisserand invariant values of 2.72 and 2.97, respectively, values less than 3 are considered suggestive of cometary origin. The observed spectral slopes in the near-infrared are consistent with both the spectra of cometary nuclei and of primitive asteroids. However, both asteroids have features in the near-infrared that are not seen in cometary nuclei, but are present in other X-type asteroids. 1373 Cincinnati has a sharp slope change between 0.75 and 1.0 μm and 2906 Caltech has a broad and shallow absorption between 1.35 and 2.2 μm. Our attempts to model the visible and near-infrared spectrum of these two objects, with the components successfully used by Emery and Brown (2004, Icarus 164, 104–121) to fit Trojan asteroids, did not yield acceptable fits.Visiting Astronomer at the Infrared Telescope Facility, which is operated by the University of Hawaii under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.  相似文献