Energy and stability in the Full Two Body Problem   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Julie Bellerose  Daniel J. Scheeres 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2008,100(1):63-91

The conditions for relative equilibria and their stability in the Full Two Body Problem are derived for an ellipsoid–sphere system. Under constant angular momentum it is found that at most two solutions exist for the long-axis solutions with the closer solution being unstable while the other one is stable. As the non-equilibrium problem is more common in nature, we look at periodic orbits in the F2BP close to the relative equilibrium conditions. Families of periodic orbits can be computed where the minimum energy state of one family is the relative equilibrium state. We give results on the relative equilibria, periodic orbits and dynamics that may allow transition from the unstable configuration to a stable one via energy dissipation.   相似文献   

Integrating field and laboratory approaches for ripple development in mixed sand–clay–EPS     

Jaco H. Baas  Megan L. Baker  Jonathan Malarkey  Sarah J. Bass  Andrew J. Manning  Julie A. Hope  Jeffrey Peakall  Ian D. Lichtman  Leiping Ye  Alan G. Davies  Daniel R. Parsons  David M. Paterson  Peter D. Thorne 《Sedimentology》2019,66(7):2749-2768

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Australian ‘gayborhoods’ and ‘lesborhoods’: a new method for estimating the number and prevalence of adult gay men and lesbian women living in each Australian postcode     

Denton Callander  Julie Mooney-Somers  Phillip Keen  Rebecca Guy  Tim Duck  Benjamin R. Bavinton 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(11):2160-2176

ABSTRACT

Gay men and lesbian women often demonstrate unique settlement patterns, forming what have been referred to as ‘gayborhoods’. This study sought to provide the first postcode-level estimates of population size and prevalence of gay and lesbian people in Australia. Data on same-gender-partnered households from the Australian Census were combined with information from six different surveys conducted from 2011 to 2017. We estimated that in 2016 there were 132,203 gay men (1.5% of adult males; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6) and 79,931 lesbian women (0.9% of adult females; 95% CI: 0.8–1.0) in Australia. While many postcodes were sparsely populated by gay and lesbian people (40.1% had prevalences of <0.1%), 24.6% were moderately populated (prevalences in the 50-95th percentile) and 2.7% were highly populated (95th percentile). By jurisdiction, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest prevalences of gay men (2.1%; 95% CI: 2.0–2.2) and lesbian women (1.5%; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6). Although the majority of highly populated postcodes were found in major cities (83.7%), some were also found in regional and remote area (16.3%). This method can be applied in other countries to enhance populate estimates. The accompanying dataset can be used to guide service delivery, conduct geographically contextualised research and develop policies relevant to gay men and lesbian women in Australia.  相似文献   

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> infection incidence prediction in hospitals (CDIIPH): a predictive model based on decision tree and fuzzy techniques     

Gyan?Chhipi-ShresthaEmail author  Julie?Mori  Kasun?Hewage  Rehan?Sadiq 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(2):417-430

Several risk factors associated with the increased likelihood of healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have been identified in the literature. These risk factors are mainly related to age, previous CDI, antimicrobial exposure, and prior hospitalization. No model is available in the published literature that can be used to predict the CDI incidence using healthcare administration data. However, the administrative data can be imprecise and may challenge the building of classical statistical models. Fuzzy set theory can deal with the imprecision inherent in such data. This research aimed to develop a model based on deterministic and fuzzy mathematical techniques for the prediction of hospital-associated CDI by using the explanatory variables controllable by hospitals and health authority administration. Retrospective data on CDI incidence and other administrative data obtained from 22 hospitals within a regional health authority in British Columbia were used to develop a decision tree (deterministic technique based) and a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model (fuzzy technique based). The decision tree model had a higher prediction accuracy than that of the fuzzy based model. However, among the common results predicted by two models, 72 % were correct. Therefore, this relationship was used to combine their results to increase the precision and the strength of evidence of the prediction. These models were further used to develop an Excel-based tool called C. difficile Infection Incidence Prediction in Hospitals (CDIIPH). The tool can be utilized by health authorities and hospitals to predict the magnitude of CDI incidence in the following quarter.  相似文献   

One Million Years tephra record at IODP Sites U1436 and U1437: Insights into explosive volcanism from the Japan and Izu arcs          下载免费PDF全文

Julie Christin Schindlbeck  Steffen Kutterolf  Susanne M. Straub  Graham D. M. Andrews  Kuo‐Lung Wang  Maryline J. Mleneck‐Vautravers 《Island Arc》2018,27(3)

The 1 Myr tephra records of IODP (International Ocean Discovery Program) Holes U1436A and U1437B in the Izu‐Bonin fore‐ and reararc were investigated in order to assess provenance and eruptive volumes, respectively. In total, 304 tephra samples were examined and 260 primary tephra layers were identified. Tephra provenance was determined by means of major and trace element compositions of glass shards and distinguished between Japan and Izu‐Bonin arc origin of the tephra layers. A total of 33 marine tephra compositions were correlated to the Japan arc and 227 to the Izu arc. Twenty marine tephra layers were correlated between the two drilling sites. Additionally, we defined eleven correlations of marine tephra deposits to major widespread Japanese eruptions; from the 1.05 Ma Shishimuta‐Pink Tephra to the 30 ka Aira‐Tn Tephra, both from Kyushu Island. These eruptions provide independent time markers within the sediment record and six correlations were used to date tephra layers from Japan in Hole U1436A to establish an alternative age model for this hole. Furthermore, the minimum distal tephra volumes of all detected events were calculated, which enabled the comparison of the tephra volumes that derived from the Japan and the Izu‐Bonin arcs. For some of the major Japanese eruptions these are the first volume estimations that also include distal deposits. All of the Japanese tephras derived from events with eruption magnitude M_v ≥ 5.6 and three of the investigated eruptions reach magnitudes M_v ≥ 7. Volcanic events of the Izu‐Bonin arc have mostly eruption magnitudes M_v ≤ 5.  相似文献   

A 180 ka record of environmental change at Erdut (Croatia): a new chronology for the loess–palaeosol sequence and its implications for environmental interpretation     

Kaja Fenn  Julie A. Durcan  David S. G. Thomas  Adriano Banak 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(4):582-593

While there are numerous thick loess–palaeosol sequences preserved across the Carpathian Basin, well dated sites that provide terrestrial palaeoenvironmental records extending beyond last glacial–interglacial cycle are scarce. Robust chronologies are essential for correlations of loess with other long-term Quaternary records and to further understanding of the palaeoenvironment and climate of this important region beyond the last 125 ka. Here a new geochronology based on 13 post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence ages focused on the lower part of the loess–palaeosol sequence at Erdut is presented. The results show that the lower part of the Erdut profile spans the penultimate glacial cycle (MIS 7 to MIS 5). The considerable sediments overlaying the investigated part of the profile suggest that this section spans two glacial cycles, rather than the previously suggested one. The most likely source of the discrepancy is the use of uncorrected infrared stimulated luminescence signal, which can cause age underestimation if not accounted for. This study demonstrates the need to revisit sites such as Erdut, re-date them using updated measurement protocols, and update existing palaeoenvironmental interpretations.  相似文献   

Source and supply of sediment to a shoreline salient in a fringing reef environment     

Michael V.W. Cuttler  Jeff E. Hansen  Ryan J. Lowe  Julie A. Trotter  Malcolm T. McCulloch 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(2):552-564

Reef-associated landforms are coupled to the health of the reef ecosystem which produces the sediment that forms and maintains these landforms. However, this connection can make reef-fronted coastlines sensitive to the impacts of climate change, given that any decline in ecosystem health (e.g. decreasing sediment supply) or changes to physical processes (e.g. sea level rise, increasing wave energy) could drive the sediment budgets of these systems into a net erosive state. Therefore, knowledge of both the sediment sources and transport mechanisms is required to predict the sensitivity of reef-associated landforms to future climate change. Here, we examine the benthic habitat composition, sediment characteristics (composition, texture, and age), and transport mechanisms and pathways to understand the interconnections between coastal morphology and the reef system at Tantabiddi, Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. Benthic surveys and sediment composition analysis revealed that although live coral accounts for less than 5% of the benthic cover, coral is the dominant sediment constituent (34% on average). Sediment ages (²³⁸U/²³⁰Th) were mostly found to be thousands of years old, suggesting that the primary sediment source is relic reef material (e.g. Holocene reef framework). Sediment transport across the lagoon was quantified through measurements of ripple migration rates, which were found to be shoreward migrating and responsible for feeding the large shoreline salient in the lee of the reef. The derived sediment fluxes were comparable with previously measured rates of sediment production by bioerosion. These results suggest that sediment budgets of systems dependent on old (>10³ years) source materials may be more resilient to climate change as present-day reef health and community composition (i.e. sources of ‘new’ carbonate production) have limited influence on sediment supply. Therefore, the vulnerability of reef-associated landforms in these systems will be dictated by future changes to mechanisms of sediment generation (e.g. bioerosion) and/or physical processes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system     

Pierre Javelle  Julie Demargne  Dimitri Defrance  Jean Pansu  Patrick Arnaud 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1390-1402

Abstract

This article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d’Information Géographique pour l’Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km² resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, “consolidated” flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fast-response catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA- and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall–runoff model limitations.