“7·20”华北强暴雨集合预报的中期预报转折和不确定性分析   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

王毅  马杰  代刊 《气象》2018,44(1):53-64

中央气象台主观预报和数值模式对2016年7月20日华北强暴雨过程的中期预报出现了一定的误差,本文利用ECMWF(简称EC)集合预报和T639集合预报等资料对"7·20"华北强暴雨过程的中期预报效果进行了分析,结果发现:(1)EC集合预报在7月16日前后对降雨区及强度的预报出现了明显转折,其因是大尺度影响天气系统的预报发生了转折性变化,7月16日20:00起报的环流形势集合平均场对比15日20:00起报场显示,在河套地区附近500hPa低槽发展更深,其下游华北高压脊也更强,形成了移动缓慢"东高西低"的环流型,黄河气旋及中低层西南涡北抬加强,导致降雨预报更接近于实况;(2)集合敏感性分析发现对降雨中期预报敏感的区域与转折前后预报的环流差异的分布型一致,引起降雨预报转折的影响系统也是降雨中期预报不确定性的来源;(3)对于降雨预报最敏感的环流系统是黄河气旋,集合成员预报的黄河气旋偏西偏北,强度越强,则预报的京津冀地区降水量越大。  相似文献   

资源环境承载能力预警的超载成因分析方法及应用     

徐勇  张雪飞  周侃  王传胜  徐小任 《地理科学进展》2017,36(3):277-285

建立资源环境承载能力监测预警机制和对超载区域实行限制性措施是中央全面深化改革的一项重大任务,而超载成因分析既是资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法的重要组成内容,也是制定超载区域限制性政策的基础。本文在搭建超载成因分析总体框架、阐述关键因素识别和成因分析方法的基础上,梳理总结了陆域/海域基础和专项评价结果以及综合预警超载成因分析的要点,进而在京津冀地区进行了实证应用。研究结果表明,导致京津冀地区资源环境超载的因素涉及自然、发展和管理各个类别,但关键因素的作用程度及其组合叠加状况在基础评价结果、专项评价结果和综合预警超载成因方面存在较大差异;水资源严重短缺、地形和气象等自然条件是导致超载的基础原因;人口和产业过度集聚以及低端产业、能源消费结构等发展类因素是超载的首要原因;内海净化能力差和海域生态退化、海岸开发强度大综合导致了海域生态环境超载;现行的资源环境管理政策尚不具备有效遏制和解决资源环境超载的能力。既有的超载成因分析框架、方法及要点可供各省、市、自治区开展资源环境承载能力监测预警借鉴。  相似文献   

海湾扇贝幼虫变态诱导研究     

洪旭光  杨宇  阚金军  吴宝铃 《海洋科学进展》1998,(3)

本文在实验室条件下研究了海湾扇贝幼虫的诱导变态。研究结果表明肾上腺素、去甲肾上腺素、ｃ－ＡＭＰ、ＧＡＢＡ、赖氨酸和ＫＣｌ等６种诱导剂中,ＫＣｌ对海湾扇贝幼虫的变态诱导效果非常显著。ＫＣｌ对幼虫的诱导效应随ＫＣｌ浓度和作用时间的增加而增大,过高浓度则抑制幼虫的变态。受精１３ｄ后幼虫（２２±１℃）才对ＫＣｌ的作用着重产生明显反应。这为生产上提供了一种方便、价廉、安全的诱导变态方法,在海湾扇贝育苗工作有很大的应用前景。  相似文献   

螺旋藻多糖对CD₃AK细胞增殖能力的影响   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

王友顺  黎露刚  吴侃  谢宗华  唐庆  李新岗  祁铁流  李长亮  汪洋  汪庭  方光如 《海洋科学》1998,22(3):37-39

研究了螺旋藻多糖（ＰＳ）对ＣＤ３ＭｃＡｂ激活的杀伤细胞（ＣＤ３ＭｃＡｂ Ａｃｔｉｖａｔｅｄ Ｋｉｌｌｅｒ Ｃｅｌｌｓ,ＣＤ３ＡＫ Ｃｅｌｌｓ）增殖能力的影响。结果表明,当ＰＳ浓度为２．５μｇ·ｍｌ＾－１培养体系条件下,对ＣＤ３ＡＫ细胞具有明显的刺激细胞增殖作用（Ｐ〈０．０２）;对培养长达２３ｄ的ＣＤ３ＡＫ细胞杀伤肿瘤细胞（Ｋ５６２细胞）的活性仍维持在较高的水平（４６．５％￣５０％）。提示ＰＳ对辐射  相似文献   

编制专业图集应注意的几个问题          下载免费PDF全文

阚贵生  刘晓玫 《第四纪研究》1999,(3):231-237

本文结合我们过去编制专业图集的体会,就如何提高编图的科学性,实用性和艺术性等谈点在工作过程中应注意的几个问题。即;明确图集的目的和要求,确定图集的内容,拟定编图大纲,图集编绘的技术原则,专家审查确定图稿,以及专业人员与地图专业人员的密切结合。  相似文献   

蛟河井水位异常的初步分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

阚振斌  李克 《东北地震研究》1999,15(2):36-39

对１９９８年６月吉林蛟河井出现的较大小位异常进行了详细的讨论,通过对比分析,排除了其它因素干扰的可能,结合地震活动性和其它异常现象,对该井的水位异常的性质进行了阐述。  相似文献   

Long-Term Variations of Potential Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen of the Japan Sea Proper Water   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Hideto Minami  Yuji Kano  Kan Ogawa 《Journal of Oceanography》1999,55(2):197-205

Observed potential temperatures and concentrations of dissolved oxygen are analyzed to elucidate their variations during the period from 1958 to 1996 at Stn. P (37°43′ N, 134°43′ E) and from 1965 to 1996 at Stn. H (40°30′ N, 137°40′ E) in the Japan Sea. At Stn. P, increases of the potential temperature for the period are found below 800 m depth with the largest value of 0.16 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. At Stn. H, the potential temperature increased below 500 m depth. The increase rate has the largest value of 0.50 ± 0.18°C per century at 500 m depth and it is 0.30 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. The concentrations of dissolved oxygen increased around 800 m depth at Stn. P. At Stn. H, they increased above 800 m depth. On the other hand, they decreased below 1200 m depth at both stations. The layer of the dissolved oxygen minimum has deepened in these decades. These features appearing in the distributions of temperature and dissolved oxygen are successively simulated by a vertical one-dimensional advection-diffusion model including consumption of dissolved oxygen and termination of the deep water supply. These results suggest that the supply of the Japan Sea Proper Water into the deep layer, which is cold and rich in dissolved oxygen, has been decreasing for the last four decades. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

基于集合预报的异常温度预报产品在中国的应用分析     

陶亦为  张恒德  代刊  董全  周军  刘珺 《气象》2023,49(12):1532-1541

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)第五代全球再分析资料(ERA5)构建模式气候,应用ECMWF集合预报,采用“集合预报标准化异常预报法”,针对最高和最低气温构建中国地区集合平均异常温度预报和异常温度概率预报产品,并与极端预报指数(extreme forecast index,EFI)开展检验和对比分析预报性能,并基于“异常温度影响矩阵”,构建了异常温度影响程度预报指数,通过异常温度事件个例探讨相关产品的预报应用。结果表明:基于ECMWF的ERA5和集合预报构建的集合平均异常温度预报产品对我国夏季和冬季异常温度事件均有比较好的预报效果,预报性能好于或接近EFI,可作为业务上对异常温度事件预报的支撑产品。异常温度概率预报产品可以体现集合成员中的预报异常温度事件的信息,在中期预报时效对发现早期异常温度事件信号有优势,并可反映对异常天气预报的不确定性信息。异常温度影响程度预报指数结合了异常天气概率预报信息和异常程度预报信息,可对异常温度时间给出客观定量的预报结果,对一次异常低温事件的个例预报证明该指数有比较好的预报效果,对异常温度事件的预报和早期科学预警有一定指示意义和业务应用前景。  相似文献   

Regeneration and utilization of nutrients during collapse of a <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mesodinium rubrum</Emphasis> red tide and its influence on phytoplankton species composition     

Yafeng Zhang  Xiuxian Song  Paul J. Harrison  Sheng Liu  Zhiming Yu  Jinjun Kan  Peiyuan Qian  Hao Liu  Kedong Yin 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2018,61(10):1384-1396

High-biomass red tides occur frequently in some semi-enclosed bays of Hong Kong where ambient nutrients are not high enough to support such a high phytoplankton biomass. These high-biomass red tides release massive inorganic nutrients into local waters during their collapse. We hypothesized that the massive inorganic nutrients released from the collapse of red tides would fuel growth of other phytoplankton species. This could influence phytoplankton species composition. We tested the hypothesis using a red tide event caused by Mesodinium rubrum (M. rubrum) in a semi-enclosed bay, Port Shelter. The red tide patch had a cell density as high as 5.0×10⁵ cells L^?1, and high chlorophyll a (63.71 μg L^?1). Ambient inorganic nutrients (nitrate: \(\rm{NO}_3^-\), ammonium: \(\rm{NH}_4^+\), phosphate: \(\rm{PO}_4^{3-}\), silicate: \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\)) were low both in the red tide patch and the non-red-tide patch (clear waters outside the red tide patch). Nutrient addition experiments were conducted by adding all the inorganic nutrients to water samples from the two patches followed by incubation for 9 days. The results showed that the addition of inorganic nutrients did not sustain high M. rubrum cell density, which collapsed after day 1, and did not drive M. rubrum in the non-red-tide patch sample to the same high-cell density in the red tide patch sample. This confirmed that nutrients were not the driving factor for the formation of this red tide event, or for its collapse. The death of M. rubrum after day 1 released high concentrations of \(\rm{NO}_3^-\), \(\rm{PO}_4^{3-}\), \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\), \(\rm{NH}_4^+\), and urea. Bacterial abundance and heterotrophic activity increased, reaching the highest on day 3 or 4, and decreased as cell density of M. rubrum declined. The released nutrients stimulated growth of diatoms, such as Chaetoceros affinis var. circinalis, Thalassiothrix frauenfeldii, and Nitzschia sp., particularly with additions of \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\) treatments, and other species. These results demonstrated that initiation of M. rubrum red tides in the bay was not directly driven by nutrients. However, the massive inorganic nutrients released from the collapse of the red tide could induce a second bloom in low-ambient nutrient water, influencing phytoplankton species composition.  相似文献   

地面三维激光扫描地形测量数据粗差剔除算法及实现   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李亮  吴侃  刘虎  郝刚 《测绘科学》2010,35(3)

本文基于地面三维激光扫描技术用于地形测量时点云数据的特点,得到引起结果存在粗差的障碍物上的点云具有坡度大于实际地形上坡度的特征,并据此提出了一种实用的粗差提取算法。对算法的原理、实现过程和其中重要参数的确定进行了分析,并编程实现了算法。最后,应用实例对粗差提取效果进行了检验,证明了算法的可行性和可靠性。  相似文献