Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Anna Wesselink  Andrew Juan Challinor  James Watson  Keith Beven  Icarus Allen  Helen Hanlon  Ana Lopez  Susanne Lorenz  Friederike Otto  Andy Morse  Cameron Rye  Stephane Saux-Picard  David Stainforth  Emma Suckling 《Climatic change》2015,132(1):1-14

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A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs     

Helen Ross  Sylvie Shaw  David Rissik  Neil Cliffe  Susie Chapman  Vanessa Hounsell  James Udy  Nghia Trong Trinh  Jess Schoeman 《Climatic change》2015,129(1-2):27-42

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Erratum to: Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States     

David Mills  Russell Jones  Karen Carney  Alexis St. Juliana  Richard Ready  Allison Crimmins  Jeremy Martinich  Kate Shouse  Benjamin DeAngelo  Erwan Monier 《Climatic change》2015,131(1):179-181

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Detecting climate impacts with oceanic fish and fisheries data     

Alistair J. Hobday  Karen Evans 《Climatic change》2013,119(1):49-62

Anthropogenic climate change is affecting the environment of all oceans, modifying ocean circulation, temperature, chemistry and productivity. While evidence for changes in physical signals is often distinct, impacts on fishes inhabiting oceanic systems are not easily identified, and therefore, quantification of responses is less common. Correctly attributing changes associated with a changing climate from other drivers is important for the implementation of effective harvest and management strategies and for addressing associated socio-economic impacts, particularly for countries highly dependent on oceanic resources. Data supporting investigation of responses of oceanic species to climate impacts include fisheries catch, fisheries-independent surveys, and conventional and electronic tagging data. However, there are a number of challenges associated with detecting climatic responses with these data, including (i) data collection costs (ii) small sample sizes (iii) limited time series relative to temporal scales at which environmental variability occurs, (iv) changing fisher and fisheries behavior due to non-climate drivers and (v) changes in population dynamics due to natural climate variability and non-climate drivers. We highlight potential biases and suggest strategies that should be considered when using oceanic fish and fisheries data in the evaluation of climate change impacts. Consideration of these factors is important when assessing variability in exploited species and designing management responses to climate or fisheries threats.  相似文献   

Flood disaster subcultures in The Netherlands: the parishes of Borgharen and Itteren     

Karen Engel  Georg Frerks  Lucia Velotti  Jeroen Warner  Bart Weijs 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):859-882

The Netherlands knows a persistent threat of flooding. To adapt to this dangerous reality, the Dutch have cultivated what disaster research literature has labeled ‘disaster subcultures’ or a set of cultural (tangible and intangible) tools to deal with the recurrent hazard. While there is abundant attention for the way the Dutch ‘coastal’ and ‘low-lying’ communities deal with the recurrent threat of (coastal) flooding, less is known about the way the Dutch ‘high-lands’ deal with the yearly threat of (fluvial) flooding. This article presents the findings of an explorative research endeavor (2011–2013) aimed at discerning if the disaster subculture concept has contemporary relevance in the Netherlands, particularly with respect to flooding, and if so, whether applying this lens would reveal more about the nature of existing disaster subcultures. Because less is known about the Dutch ‘high-lands,’ we chose to look into the existence and attributes of disaster subcultures in the parishes Borgharen and Itteren, which experience a systematic threat of flooding. Our findings suggest that the disaster subculture lens is valuable as it enables the empirical appreciation of disaster subcultures, even in a small country like the Netherlands, and it unveiled elements of these neighboring parishes’ flood reality that otherwise might have gone unnoticed and that seem central to understanding these two parishes’ levels of vulnerability and resilience. It is our contention that the concept ‘disaster subculture’ makes a greater understanding possible of the cultural context from which vulnerability and resilience to specific and recurrent threats emerge.  相似文献   

From Headwaters to Coast: Influence of Human Activities on Water Quality of the Potomac River Estuary     

Suzanne B. Bricker  Karen C. Rice  Owen P. Bricker III 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2014,20(2-3):291-323

The natural aging process of Chesapeake Bay and its tributary estuaries has been accelerated by human activities around the shoreline and within the watershed, increasing sediment and nutrient loads delivered to the bay. Riverine nutrients cause algal growth in the bay leading to reductions in light penetration with consequent declines in sea grass growth, smothering of bottom-dwelling organisms, and decreases in bottom-water dissolved oxygen as algal blooms decay. Historically, bay waters were filtered by oysters, but declines in oyster populations from overfishing and disease have led to higher concentrations of fine-sediment particles and phytoplankton in the water column. Assessments of water and biological resource quality in Chesapeake Bay and tributaries, such as the Potomac River, show a continual degraded state. In this paper, we pay tribute to Owen Bricker’s comprehensive, holistic scientific perspective using an approach that examines the connection between watershed and estuary. We evaluated nitrogen inputs from Potomac River headwaters, nutrient-related conditions within the estuary, and considered the use of shellfish aquaculture as an in-the-water nutrient management measure. Data from headwaters, nontidal, and estuarine portions of the Potomac River watershed and estuary were analyzed to examine the contribution from different parts of the watershed to total nitrogen loads to the estuary. An eutrophication model was applied to these data to evaluate eutrophication status and changes since the early 1990s and for comparison to regional and national conditions. A farm-scale aquaculture model was applied and results scaled to the estuary to determine the potential for shellfish (oyster) aquaculture to mediate eutrophication impacts. Results showed that (1) the contribution to nitrogen loads from headwater streams is small (about 2 %) of total inputs to the Potomac River Estuary; (2) eutrophic conditions in the Potomac River Estuary have improved in the upper estuary since the early 1990s, but have worsened in the lower estuary. The overall system-wide eutrophication impact is high, despite a decrease in nitrogen loads from the upper basin and declining surface water nitrate nitrogen concentrations over that period; (3) eutrophic conditions in the Potomac River Estuary are representative of Chesapeake Bay region and other US estuaries; moderate to high levels of nutrient-related degradation occur in about 65 % of US estuaries, particularly river-dominated low-flow systems such as the Potomac River Estuary; and (4) shellfish (oyster) aquaculture could remove eutrophication impacts directly from the estuary through harvest but should be considered a complement—not a substitute—for land-based measures. The total nitrogen load could be removed if 40 % of the Potomac River Estuary bottom was in shellfish cultivation; a combination of aquaculture and restoration of oyster reefs may provide larger benefits.  相似文献   

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and Its Application to Habitat Sustainability for Endangered Species in the San Francisco Estuary     

Kathleen M. Swanson  Judith Z. Drexler  David H. Schoellhamer  Karen M. Thorne  Mike L. Casazza  Cory T. Overton  John C. Callaway  John Y. Takekawa 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(2):476-492

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.  相似文献   

Response of an Arctic Sediment Nitrogen Cycling Community to Increased CO2     

Karen Tait  Bonnie Laverock  Stephen Widdicombe 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(3):724-735

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Exchange of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Between a Shallow Lagoon and Coastal Waters     

Melanie Hayn  Robert Howarth  Roxanne Marino  Neil Ganju  Peter Berg  Kenneth H. Foreman  Anne E. Giblin  Karen McGlathery 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(1):63-73

West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow lagoon on Cape Cod, has experienced a threefold increase in nitrogen load since the mid- to late 1990s due to input from a groundwater plume contaminated by a municipal wastewater treatment plant. We measured the exchange of nitrogen and phosphorus between the harbor and the coastal waters of Buzzards Bay over several years when the harbor was experiencing this elevated nitrogen load. During summer months, the harbor not only retained the entire watershed nitrogen load but also had a net import of nitrogen from Buzzards Bay. During the spring and fall, the harbor had a net export of nitrogen to Buzzards Bay. We did not measure the export in winter, but assuming the winter net export was less than 112 % of the load, the harbor exported less than half of the watershed nitrogen load on an annual basis. For phosphorus, the harbor had a net import from coastal waters in the spring and summer months and a net export in the fall. Despite the large increase in nitrogen load to the harbor, the summertime import of phosphorus from Buzzards Bay was sufficient to maintain nitrogen limitation of primary productivity during the summer. Our findings illustrate that shallow systems dominated by benthic producers have the potential to retain large terrestrial nitrogen loads when there is sufficient supply of phosphorus from exchange with coastal waters.  相似文献   

Interdisciplinary and participatory approaches: the key to effective groundwater management     

Roland Barthel  Stephen Foster  Karen G. Villholth 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(7):1923-1926

The challenges of a changing world, which are progressively threatening sustainable use of groundwater resources, can only be rationally and effectively addressed through close collaboration between experts and practitioners from different disciplines. Furthermore, science and management need to build on stakeholder opinions and processes in order to generate useful knowledge and positive outcomes in terms of sustainable and equitable groundwater management. This essay provides a discussion of the status of and vision for participatory and inter-disciplinary approaches to groundwater evaluation and management as well as a conceptual framework and relevant research questions that will facilitate such approaches.  相似文献