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Kristin Spröhnle Olaf Kranz Elisabeth Schoepfer Matthias Moeller Stefan Voigt 《国际地球制图》2016,31(5):575-595
This study describes the development of a semi-automatic object-based image analysis approach for the detection and quantification of deforestation in Zalingei, Darfur, in consequence of the increasing concentration of refugees or internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the region. The classification workflow is based on a multi-scale approach, ranging from the analysis of high resolution SPOT-4 to very high resolution IKONOS and QuickBird satellite imagery between 2003 and 2008. The overall accuracy rates for the classification of the SPOT 4 data ranged from 92% up to 95%, while those for the QuickBird and IKONOS classification have shown values of 88 and 87%, respectively. The resulting trends in woody vegetation cover were compared with the development of the local population and the variability of precipitation. The results show that the strong increase in human population in the Zalingei IDP camps can be associated with considerable decrease in woody vegetation in the camp vicinity. 相似文献
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Results from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) are used to perform the first in a series of studies of the various time and space scales of climate anomalies in an environment of gradually increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) (a linear transient increase of 1% per year in the coupled model). Since observed climate anomaly patterns often are computed as time-averaged differences between two periods, climate-change signals in the coupled model are defined using differences of various averaging intervals between the transient and control integrations. Annual mean surface air temperature differences for several regions show that the Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere and that land areas warm faster than ocean. The high northern latitudes outside the North Atlantic contribute most to global warming but also exhibit great variability, while the high southern latitudes contribute the least. The equatorial tropics warm more slowly than the subtropics due to strong upwelling and mixing in the ocean. The globally averaged surface air temperature trend computed from annual mean differences for years 23–60 is 0.03 C per year. Projecting this trend to the time of CO2 doubling in year 100 produces a warming of 2.3° C. By chance, one particular northern winter five-year average geographical difference pattern in the Northern Hemisphere from the coupled model resembles the recent observed pattern of surface temperature and sea-level pressure anomalies. This pattern is not consistent from one five-year period to the next in any season in the model. However, multidecadal averages in the coupled model show that the North Atlantic warms less than the rest of the high northern latitudes, and recent observations may be a manifestation of this phenomenon. Consistent geographic patterns of climate anomalies forced by increased CO2 in the model are more evident with a longer averaging interval. There is also the possibility that the CO2 climate-change signal may itself be a function of time and space. The general pattern of zonal mean temperature anomalies for all periods in the model shows warming in the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere. This pattern (or one similar to it taking into account the rest of the trace gases) could be looked for in observations to verify the enhanced greenhouse effect. A zonal mean pattern, however, could prove scientifically satisfactory but of little value to policymakers seeking regional climate-change forecasts. These results from the coupled model underscore the difficulty in identifying a time- and space-dependent fingerprint of greenhouse warming that has some practical use from short climatic records and point to the need to understand the mechanisms of decadal-scale variability.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
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New experimental insight into the spalling behavior of concrete in fire conditions is presented in this paper. Spalling was
recorded by a high-speed camera. The slow-motion sequences allow us to determine the size, shape, and velocity of the spalled-off
pieces. With this information at hand, the released energy associated with every spalling event is computed and compared to
the energies associated with pore-pressure and thermal-stress spalling. This comparison provides new insight into the impact
of the various thermal, mechanical, and hydral processes controlling concrete spalling. 相似文献
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Integrating uncertainty: Canyon Creek hyperconcentrated flows of November 1989 and 1990 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Canyon Creek drains a 79 km2 watershed in northwestern Washington State. Extensive logging occurred from the mid-1960s to 1980s, which resulted in numerous
slope instabilities and a several order of magnitude increase in sediment supply to the creek. On November 9, 1989, a hyperconcentrated
flow with a peak discharge of 450 m3/s destroyed one house on the fan. A forensic investigation of the event suggests that a temporary landslide dam may have
formed at two coalescing earthflows about 4 km above the fan apex. The 1989 hyperconcentrated flow caused significant aggradation
on the fan. One year later to the day, a significant flood occurred, which ran over the aggraded fan surface from the 1989
event. This latter event destroyed four more homes mostly through bank erosion and rendered a section of county road impassable.
FLDWAV, a flood routing model capable of simulating unsteady flow conditions, was used to model landslide dam breaches for
a number of different dam heights at the earthflows. Modeling results were then combined with historic air photograph interpretation,
dendrochronology, and eyewitness accounts to construct a frequency–magnitude relationship for hyperconcentrated flows at Canyon
Creek. FLDWAV results were combined with a hyperconcentrated flow runout model (FLO-2D) on the fan to estimate maximum flow
depth and flow velocity for the design event, a 500-year return period with a predicted peak discharge of 710 m3/s. A large range of mitigation measures were reviewed, but it was concluded that buy-outs would be the most effective risk
reduction measure. Property acquisition commenced in 2004. 相似文献
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