The Handling of Hazard Data on a National Scale: A Case Study from the British Geological Survey     

Katherine R. Royse 《Surveys in Geophysics》2011,32(6):753-776

This paper reviews how hazard data and geological map data have been combined by the British Geological Survey (BGS) to produce a set of GIS-based national-scale hazard susceptibility maps for the UK. This work has been carried out over the last 9 years and as such reflects the combined outputs of a large number of researchers at BGS. The paper details the inception of these datasets from the development of the seamless digital geological map in 2001 through to the deterministic 2D hazard models produced today. These datasets currently include landslides, shrink-swell, soluble rocks, compressible and collapsible deposits, groundwater flooding, geological indicators of flooding, radon potential and potentially harmful elements in soil. These models have been created using a combination of expert knowledge (from both within BGS and from outside bodies such as the Health Protection Agency), national databases (which contain data collected over the past 175 years), multi-criteria analysis within geographical information systems and a flexible rule-based approach for each individual geohazard. By using GIS in this way, it has been possible to model the distribution and degree of geohazards across the whole of Britain.  相似文献   

Hydrogen isotope ratios of leaf wax n-alkanes in grasses are insensitive to transpiration     

Francesca A. McInerney  Brent R. Helliker  Katherine H. Freeman 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(2):541-554

We analyzed hydrogen isotope ratios of high-molecular weight n-alkanes (δD_l) and oxygen isotope ratios of α-cellulose (δ¹⁸O_C) for C₃ and C₄ grasses grown in the field and in controlled-environment growth chambers. The relatively firm understanding of ¹⁸O-enrichment in leaf water and α-cellulose was used to elucidate fractionation patterns of δD_l signatures. In the different relative humidity environments of the growth chambers, we observed clear and predictable effects of leaf-water enrichment on δ¹⁸O_C values. Using a Craig-Gordon model, we demonstrate that leaf water in the growth chamber grasses should have experienced significant D-enriched due to transpiration. Nonetheless, we found no effect of transpirational D-enrichment on the δD_l values. In field samples, we saw clear evidence of enrichment (correlating with relative humidity of the field sites) in both δ¹⁸O_C and δD_l. These seemingly contrasting results could be explained if leaf waxes are synthesized in an environment that is isotopically similar to water entering plant roots due to either temporal or spatial isolation from evaporatively enriched leaf waters. For grasses in the controlled environment, there was no enrichment of source water, whereas enrichment of grass source water via evaporation from soils and/or stems was likely for grass samples grown in the field.Based on these results, evaporation from soils and/or stems appears to affect δD_l, but transpiration from leaves does not. Further evidence for this conclusion is found in modeling expected net evapotranspirational enrichment. A Craig-Gordon model applied to each of the field sites yields leaf water oxygen isotope ratios that can be used to accurately predict the observed δ¹⁸O_C values. In contrast, the calculated leaf water hydrogen isotope ratios are more enriched than what is required to predict observed δD_l values. These calculations lend support to the conclusion that while δ¹⁸O_C reflects both soil evaporation and transpiration, δD_l appears to only record evaporation from soils and/or stems. Therefore, the δD of n-alkanes can likely be used to reconstruct the δD of water entering a leaf, supporting the soil-enrichment model of Smith and Freeman (2006). In both the field and controlled studies, we found significant photosynthetic pathway effects on n-alkane δD suggesting that biochemical pathways or plant phylogeny have a greater effect on leaf wax δD than leaf-water enrichment in grasses.  相似文献   

Making data useful for modelers to understand complex Earth systems   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Mark A. Parsons 《Earth Science Informatics》2011,4(4):197-223

The Arctic is changing rapidly with dramatic local and global effect. To understand that change requires understanding the Arctic as a system. Models of different processes and at various scales are necessary tools for analyzing and understanding the Earth system. Models are extremely diverse, yet they all require quality data. Through a series of case studies, augmented with ethnographic observation around the International Polar Year, this work examines how modelers assess, acquire, and prepare data for their models. By comparing specific case studies, common themes emerge that can be compared against broader observation. These themes, in turn, suggest data management techniques or requirements for data systems to improve access and use by modelers and generally improve understanding of the Arctic system. The study has an Arctic focus because of the rapid changes occurring in the Arctic, but the approach and results should apply generally to Earth system science. This case study based approach has proven to be a useful method for teasing out both general and specific data needs for different models. An overarching lesson is that greater short-term benefit to modelers and significant gains in efficiency can be achieved by improving the formats, convention, and consistency of the data rather than improved interfaces and analysis tools. A “data-first” philosophy can improve the data systems that support the overall interdisciplinary, integrative science necessary to understand the complex Earth system.  相似文献   

Nitrogen uptake and primary productivity rates in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB)     

Katherine C. Filippino  Margaret R. MulhollandPeter W. Bernhardt 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

Nutrient concentrations, primary productivity, and nitrogen uptake rates were measured in coastal waters of the Mid-Atlantic Bight over a two-year period that included measurements from all four seasons. In order to assess carbon productivity and nitrogen demand within the context of the physical environment, the region was divided into three distinct hydrographic regimes: the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay outflow plumes (PL), the southern Mid-Atlantic shelf influenced by the Gulf Stream (SS), and the mid-shelf area to the north of the Chesapeake Bay mouth (MS). Annual areal rates of total nitrogen (N) uptake were similar across all regions (10.9 ± 2.1 mol N m⁻² y⁻¹). However, annual areal rates of net primary productivity were higher in the outflow plume region (43 mol C m⁻² y⁻¹), than along the Mid-Atlantic shelf and in areas influenced by the Gulf Stream (41 and 34 mol C m⁻² y⁻¹, respectively). Rates of net primary productivity were not well correlated with Chl a concentrations and were uncoupled with net N uptake rates. Seasonally averaged annual areal rates of net primary productivity for the Mid-Atlantic Bight measured in this study were higher than those calculated in previous decades and provide important validation information for biogeochemical models and satellite remote sensing algorithms developed for the region.  相似文献   

Three‐dimensional gravity‐current flow within a subaqueous bend: Spatial evolution and force balance variations     

Taoyuan Wei  Jeff Peakall  Daniel R. Parsons  Zhongyuan Chen  Baocheng Zhao  Jim Best 《Sedimentology》2013,60(7):1668-1680

The nature of three‐dimensional flow in submarine channel bends is poorly understood, largely due to the absence of detailed data from natural channels. Herein, data from density‐driven flows in a large reservoir on the Huanghe (Yellow) River are presented showing the spatio‐temporal variation of flow around a subaqueous bend. The data demonstrate for the first time that reversed helical flow, relative to that found in river channel bends, can occur from the centrifugal forcing of flow, even when the Coriolis force acts in the opposite direction. The data also suggest that reversed helical flow fields in submarine channels may be more frequent than currently estimated, notably for bends where Coriolis and centrifugal forces combine in the same direction. In addition, this study provides the first field evidence suggesting that sinuous submarine channels can exhibit an asymmetry in helical flow orientation between left and right‐turning bends, which will have major implications for the morphodynamics of submarine channels, their resultant patterns of sedimentation and, ultimately, the distribution of depositional units across submarine fan systems.  相似文献   

Measurement of soluble reactive phosphorus concentration profiles and fluxes in river-bed sediments using DET gel probes   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Helen P. Jarvie  Robert J.G. Mortimer  Elizabeth J. Palmer-Felgate  Katherine St. Quinton  Sarah A. Harman  Patricia Carbo 《Journal of Hydrology》2008,350(3-4):261-273

DET (diffusive equilibrium in thin films) gel probes were used for sampling river-bed sediment porewaters, to characterise in situ soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration profiles and fluxes. DET probes were deployed in three contrasting rural streams: (1) a headwater ‘pristine’ stream, with minimal P inputs from low intensity grassland and no point sources, (2) an intensively cultivated arable catchment, and (3) a stream subject to high P loadings from sewage effluent and intensive arable farming. The DET results showed highly enriched porewater SRP concentrations of between ca. 400 and 5000 μg-P l⁻¹ in the sewage-impacted stream. In contrast, the arable and pristine streams had porewater SRP concentrations <70 μg-P l⁻¹ and <20 μg-P l⁻¹, respectively. Porewater SRP concentration profiles in both the sewage-impacted and arable-impacted streams showed well-defined vertical structure, indicating internal sources and sinks of SRP within the sediment. However, there was little variability in porewater SRP concentrations in the pristine stream. The DET porewater profiles indicated net diffusion of SRP (a) from the overlying river water into the surface sediment and (b) from subsurface sediment upwards towards the sediment–water interface. A mass balance for the sewage-impacted site showed that the influx of SRP into the surface sediments from the overlying river water was small (ca. 1% of the daily river SRP load). The DET results indicated that, in the arable and sewage-impacted streams, the surface ‘cap’ of fine sediment may play an important role in inhibiting upward movement of SRP from subsurface porewaters into the overlying river water, under steady-state, low-flow conditions.  相似文献   

Response to Hairsine's and Sander's ‘Comment on “A transport‐distance based approach to scaling erosionrates”: Parts 1, 2 and 3 by Wainwright et al.’     

John Wainwright  Anthony J. Parsons  Eva N. Müller  Richard E. Brazier  D. Mark Powell 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2009,34(6):886-890

  相似文献   

Tsunami Probability in the Caribbean Region     

Tom Parsons  Eric L. Geist 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(11-12):2089-2116

We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ~500-year empirical record compiled by O’Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0–30% regionally.  相似文献   

A transport‐distance approach to scaling erosion rates: 1. Background and model development     

John Wainwright  Anthony J. Parsons  Eva N. Müller  Richard E. Brazier  D. Mark Powell  Bantigegne Fenti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(5):813-826

The process basis of existing soil‐erosion models is shown to be ill‐founded. The existing literature builds directly or indirectly on Bennett's (1974) paper, which provided a blueprint for integrated catchment‐scale erosion modelling. Whereas Bennett recognized the inherent assumptions of the approach suggested, subsequent readings of the paper have led to a less critical approach. Most notably, the assumption that sediment movement could be approximated by a continuity equation that related to transport in suspension has produced a series of submodels that assume that all movement occurs in suspension. For commonly occurring conditions on hillslopes, this case is demonstrably untrue both on theoretical grounds and from empirical observations. Elsewhere in the catchment system, it is only partially true, and the extent to which the assumption is reasonable varies both spatially and temporally. A second ground‐breaking paper – that of Foster and Meyer (1972) – was responsible for subsequent uncritical application of a first‐order approximation to deposition based on steady‐state analysis and again a weak empirical basis. We describe in this paper an alternative model (Mahleran – Model for Assessing Hillslope‐Landscape Erosion, Runoff And Nutrients) based upon particle‐travel distance that overcomes existing limitations by incorporating parameterizations of the different detachment and transport mechanisms that occur in water erosion in hillslopes and small catchments. In the second paper in the series, we consider the sensitivity and general behaviour of Mahleran , and test it in relation to data from a large rainfall‐simulation experiment. The third paper of the sequence evaluates the model using data from plots of different sizes in monitored rainfall events. From this evaluation, we consider the scaling characteristics of the current form of Mahleran and suggest that integrated modelling, laboratory and field approaches are required in order to advance the state of the art in soil‐erosion modelling. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2008年汶川地震造成的应力变化和四川盆地地震危险性增加   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

T.Parsons  E.Kirby  张效亮 《世界地震译丛》2009,(1):17-20

2008年5月12日,灾难性的汶川7．9级大地震袭击了青藏高原东缘,造成四川盆地西部多个大城市房屋倒塌和大量人员伤亡。如此大的地震之后,地壳应力的重新调整通常会导致破坏性地震发生（Stein et al,1997;Stein,1999;McCloskey et al,2005;Parsons et al,2000;Parsons,2002）。5月12日地震的主震造成龙门山和四川盆地连接处最大位错量达9m,说明复杂的走滑和逆冲运动（Jiand Hayes,2008）为该地区的特征（Burchfiel et al,1995;Densmore et al,2007）。四川盆地及其周边也有其他活跃的走滑和逆冲断层相互交错。本文利用地震断层模型计算了由2008年5月12日汶川地震引起的同震应力变化,结果显示很多地区应力显著增加。快速给出这种应力变化图像有助于确定未来可能发生强余震的断层段。  相似文献