Modelling Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Hudson Bay Complex Using Bulk Heat Flux Parameterization: Sensitivity to Atmospheric Forcing,and Model Resolution     

Shabnam JafariKhasragh  Jennifer V. Lukovich  Xianmin Hu  Paul G. Myers  Kevin Sydor  David G. Barber 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):120-133

ABSTRACT

Sea surface temperature (SST) from four Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model simulations is analyzed to study the bulk flux parameterization to compute SST over the Hudson Bay Complex (HBC) for the summer months (August and September) from 2002 to 2009. The NEMO simulation was forced with two atmospheric forcing sets with different resolutions: the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment, version 2 (COREv2), as the lower resolution and the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s Global Deterministic Prediction System Reforecasts (CGRF) as the higher resolution. The CGRF forcing is also implemented in the third and fourth runs using different runoff data and different NEMO resolutions (1/12° versus 1/4°). Results show that all four modelled SSTs followed observed SST patterns, with regional differences in SST bias between simulations with different atmospheric forcing. The SST differences are small between simulations forced with the same atmospheric forcing but with different model resolution or runoff. This implies that the model resolution and runoff have a small effect on the simulated SST in the HBC. Moreover, to better capture the effect of near-surface temperature (T_air) on simulated SST, we conducted three analyses using the Haney flux linearization formula. Results from these assessments did not indicate any direct influence on the model-simulated SSTs by T_air. Looking at the heat flux as a signature for SST showed that both averaged spatial distribution and time series of net heat flux produced by the three CGRF forcing simulations were higher than the net heat flux generated by the CORE 2 simulation. This was generally true for all four components of the total heat flux (sensible, latent, shortwave, and longwave) individually as well. Total heat flux in summer is governed by the shortwave heat flux, with values up to 120?W?m^?2 in August, and the longwave heat flux is the main contributor to the total heat flux differences. These heat flux differences lead to corresponding colder model SSTs for the CGRF runs and warmer SSTs for the CORE 2 simulations.  相似文献   

Resolution dependence of tropical cyclone formation in CMIP3 and finer resolution models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kevin Walsh  Sally Lavender  Enrico Scoccimarro  Hiroyuki Murakami 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):585-599

Detection of tropical lows is performed in a suite of climate model simulations using objectively-determined detection thresholds that are resolution-dependent. It is found that there is some relationship between model resolution and tropical cyclone formation rate even after the resolution-dependent tropical cyclone detection threshold is applied. The relationship is investigated between model-simulated tropical cyclone formation and a climate-based tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Index (GPI). It is found that coarser-resolution models simulate the GPI better than they simulate formation of tropical cyclones directly. As a result, there appears to be little relationship from model to model between model GPI and the directly-simulated cyclone formation rate. Statistical analysis of the results shows that the main advantage of increasing model resolution is to give a considerably better pattern of cyclone formation. Finer resolution models also simulate a slightly better pattern of GPI, and for these models there is some relationship between the pattern of GPI simulated by each model and that model’s pattern of simulated tropical cyclone formation.  相似文献   

Paleoecological evidence of major declines in total organic carbon concentrations since the nineteenth century in four nemoboreal lakes     

Laura?CunninghamEmail author  Kevin?Bishop  Eva?Mett?vainio  Peter?Rosén 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2011,45(4):507-518

A decade of widespread increases in surface water concentrations of total organic carbon (TOC) in some regions has raised questions about longer term patterns in this important constituent of water chemistry. This study uses near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to infer lake water TOC far beyond the decade or two of observational data generally available. An expanded calibration dataset of 140 lakes across Sweden covering a TOC gradient from 0.7 to 24.7 mg L⁻¹ was used to establish a relationship between the NIRS signal from surface sediments (0–0.5 cm) and the TOC concentration of the water mass. Internal cross-validation of the model resulted in an R ² of 0.72 with a root mean squared error of calibration (RMSECV) of 2.6 mg L⁻¹. The TOC concentrations reconstructed from surface sediments in four Swedish lakes were typically within the range of concentrations observed in the monitoring data during the period represented by each sediment layer. TOC reconstructions from the full sediment cores of four lakes indicated that TOC concentrations were approximately twice as high a century ago.  相似文献   

Attitudes to Diversity: new perspectives on the ethnic geography of Brisbane,Australia     

James Forrest  Kevin Dunn 《The Australian geographer》2011,42(4):435-453

As a consequence of changing immigration policy over the past 50 years, contemporary Australia has a culturally diverse population. Focusing on Brisbane, one of Australia's smaller immigrant-receiving cities but where some 19 per cent of the population is born overseas, this study examines attitudes to and perceptions of culturally different ethnic (non-Anglo) immigrant groups. Emphasis is placed on patterns of tolerance and intolerance for the city as a whole, both in areas of contact and in areas of minimal contact. Findings show that variations in attitudes vary somewhat from commonly accepted socio-economic and age-based correlations (the lower the status or the older people are the less tolerant), depending on the particular mix of ethnic birthplace groups present. They also show levels of intolerance in areas of minimal contact, which is implicitly attributed to mass media influences. In light of these findings, a concluding plea is made for anti-intolerance strategies to be developed for cities that pay regard to the geography of attitude-forming contexts.  相似文献   

Remote sensing of soybean stress as an indicator of chemical concentration of biosolid amended surface soils     

B.B. Maruthi Sridhar  Robert K. Vincent  Sheila J. Roberts  Kevin Czajkowski 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2011

The accumulation of heavy metals in the biosolid amended soils and the risk of their uptake into different plant parts is a topic of great concern. This study examines the accumulation of several heavy metals and nutrients in soybeans grown on biosolid applied soils and the use of remote sensing to monitor the metal uptake and plant stress. Field and greenhouse studies were conducted with soybeans grown on soils applied with biosolids at varying rates. The plant growth was monitored using Landsat TM imagery and handheld spectroradiometer in field and greenhouse studies, respectively. Soil and plant samples were collected and then analyzed for several elemental concentrations. The chemical concentrations in soils and roots increased significantly with increase in applied biosolid concentrations. Copper (Cu) and Molybdenum (Mo) accumulated significantly in the shoots of the metal-treated plants. Our spectral and Landsat TM image analysis revealed that the Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) can be used to distinguish the metal stressed plants. The NDVI showed significant negative correlation with increase in soil Cu concentrations followed by other elements. This study suggests the use of remote sensing to monitor soybean stress patterns and thus indirectly assess soil chemical characteristics.  相似文献   

Transport and exchange of U-series nuclides between suspended material,dissolved load and colloids in rivers draining basaltic terrains     

Philip A.E. Pogge von Strandmann  Kevin W. Burton  Don Porcelli  Rachael H. James  Peter van Calsteren  Sigurður R. Gislason 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2011,301(1-2):125-136

This study presents uranium and thorium concentrations and activity ratios for all riverine phases (bedload, suspended load, dissolved load and colloids) from basaltic terrains in Iceland and the Azores. Small basaltic islands, such as these, are thought to account for ~ 25% of CO₂ consumed by global silicate weathering, and for ~ 45% of the flux of suspended material to the oceans. These data indicate that [U] and [Th] in the dissolved and colloidal fractions are strongly controlled by pH, and to a much lesser extent by levels of dissolved organic carbon (which are low in these environments). At high pH, basalt glass dissolution is enhanced, and secondary mineral formation (e.g. Fe-oxyhydroxides and allophane) is suppressed, resulting in high dissolved [U], and low colloidal [U] and [Th], indicating a direct chemical weathering control on elemental abundances. When the dissolved (²³⁴U/²³⁸U) activity ratio is >~1.3 (i.e. when physical weathering, groundwater contribution or soil formation are high), there is little isotope exchange between dissolved and colloidal fractions. At lower activity ratios, the dissolved load and colloids have indistinguishable activity ratios, suggesting that when chemical weathering rates are high, secondary clay formation is also high, and colloids rapidly adsorb dissolved U. Many of the suspended sediment samples have (²³⁴U/²³⁸U) activity ratios of > 1, which suggests that uptake of U onto the suspended load is important. Identical (²³⁰Th/²³²Th) in suspended, dissolved and colloidal samples suggests that Th, like U, is exchanged or sorbed rapidly between all riverine phases. This particle-reactivity, combined with poorly constrained contributions from groundwater and hydrothermal water, and short-term variations in input to soils (volcanic and glacial), suggests that U-series nuclides in riverine material from such basaltic terrains are unlikely to reflect steady state erosion processes.  相似文献   

Forced and unforced variability of twentieth century North American droughts and pluvials     

Benjamin I. Cook  Edward R. Cook  Kevin J. Anchukaitis  Richard Seager  Ron L. Miller 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(5-6):1097-1110

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905?C1917) and drought (1932?C1939, 1948?C1957, 1998?C2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900?C2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1?C2), we are able to reproduce the 1948?C1957 drought and 1905?C1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1?C2?C3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998?C2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932?C1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932?C1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998?C2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932?C1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.  相似文献   

An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Susan E. Tolwinski-Ward  Michael N. Evans  Malcolm K. Hughes  Kevin J. Anchukaitis 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(11-12):2419-2439

We present a simple, efficient, process-based forward model of tree-ring growth, called Vaganov–Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite), that requires as inputs only latitude and monthly temperature and precipitation. Simulations of six bristlecone pine ring-width chronologies demonstrate the interpretability of model output as an accurate representation of the climatic controls on growth. Ensemble simulations by VS-Lite of two networks of North American ring-width chronologies correlate with observations at higher significance levels on average than simulations formed by regression of ring width on the principal components of the same monthly climate data. VS-Lite retains more skill outside of calibration intervals than does the principal components regression approach. It captures the dominant low- and high-frequency spatiotemporal ring-width signals in the network with an inhomogeneous, multivariate relationship to climate. Because continuous meteorological data are most widely available at monthly temporal resolution, our model extends the set of sites at which forward-modeling studies are possible. Other potential uses of VS-Lite include generation of synthetic ring-width series for pseudo-proxy studies, as a data level model in data assimilation-based climate reconstructions, and for bias estimation in actual ring-width index series.  相似文献   

Simultaneous time-lapse electrical resistivity inversion     

Kevin Hayley  A. Pidlisecky  L.R. Bentley 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2011,75(2):401-411

Time-lapse monitoring is a powerful tool for observing dynamic changes in the subsurface. In particular it offers the potential for achieving inversion results with increased fidelity through the inclusion of complementary information from multiple time-steps. This inclusion of complementary information can reduce the need for spatial smoothing, without adding inversion artifacts to the resulting images. Commonly used time-lapse inversion methods include the ratio method, cascaded time-lapse inversion, difference inversion and differencing independent inversions. We introduce two additional methods in which both time-lapse data sets are inverted simultaneously. In the first, called temporally constrained time-lapse inversion, inversion of both datasets is done under a single optimization procedure and constraints are added to the regularization to ensure that the changes from one time to another are smooth. In the second method, called simultaneous time-lapse inversion, the inversions at time 1 and time 2 are performed simultaneously and constraints of smoothness and closeness to a reference model are applied to the difference image produced at each iteration, and subsequently, the constraints are updated at each iteration. Through both a numerical and a field example we compare the results of common time-lapse inversion methods as well as the introduced approaches. We found that of the commonly used time-lapse inversion methods the difference inversion method produced the best resolution of time-lapse changes and was the most robust in the presence of noise. However, we found that the alternative approach of simultaneous time-lapse inversion produced the best reconstruction of modeled EC changes in the numerical example and easily interpretable high resolution difference images in the field example. Moreover, there was less tailoring of regularization parameters with our simultaneous time-lapse approach, suggesting that it will lend itself well to an automated inversion code.  相似文献   

An inter-comparison of Arctic synoptic scale storms between four global reanalysis datasets     

Vessey  Alexander F.  Hodges  Kevin I.  Shaffrey  Len C.  Day  Jonathan J. 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(5):2777-2795

Climate Dynamics - The Arctic is becoming more accessible as sea ice extent continues to decline, resulting in higher human exposure to Arctic storms. This study compares Arctic storm...  相似文献