Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jesús Antón  Andrea Cattaneo  Shingo Kimura  Jussi Lankoski 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1726-1736

Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers’ adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers’ expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

Demonstration of crystalline forsterite grain formation due to coalescence growth of Mg and SiO smoke particles     

C. Kaito  Y. Ojima  K. Kamitsuji  O. Kido  Y. Kimura  H. Suzuki  T. Sato  T. Nakada  Y. Saito  C. Koike 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2003,38(1):49-57

Abstract— Experimental studies of coalescence between Mg grains and SiO grains in smoke reveal the direct production of crystalline forsterite grains. The present results also show that different materials can be produced by grain‐grain collisions, which have been considered one of the models of grain formation in the interstellar medium. The fundamentals of coalescence growth in smoke, which have been developed in our series of experiments, are presented in this paper. Mg₂Si polyhedral grains were obtained in a Mg grain‐rich atmosphere. Mg₂SiO₄ polyhedral grains were obtained in a SiO grain‐rich atmosphere. The IR spectra of the resultant grains showed the characteristics of crystalline forsterite.  相似文献   

A survey of emission-line stars in the perseus dark cloud     

Liu Cai-pin  Zhang Chun-sheng  Kimura Hiroshi 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》1981,5(3):276-281

The results of an objective prism survey of H_α emission-line stars in a 5° × 5° region around NGC 1333 are presented. We have identified 25 stars as having H_α -line in emission, of which 11 have been discovered in the Lick H_α-survey. The limiting magnitude of the present survey is about 16.7 mag. in blue. These are suspected to be mainly T Tauri stars. Based on the UGR(Kiso) multiexposure plates, we have found that, on the [(G - U), (R - G)]-diagram, the domain of H_α emission line stars is fairly well delineated and separate from other stars. Some interesting features in their space distribution are also discussed briefly.  相似文献   

A web-based real-time and full-resolution data visualization for Himawari-8 satellite sensed images     

Ken T. Murata  Praphan Pavarangkoon  Atsushi Higuchi  Koichi Toyoshima  Kazunori Yamamoto  Kazuya Muranaga  Yoshiaki Nagaya  Yasushi Izumikawa  Eizen Kimura  Takamichi Mizuhara 《Earth Science Informatics》2018,11(2):217-237

It has been almost four decades since the first launch of geostationary meteorological satellite by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The specifications of the geostationary meteorological satellites have shown tremendous progresses along with the generations, which are now entering their third generation. The third-generation geostationary meteorological satellites not only yield basic data for weather monitoring, but also globally observe the Earth’s environment. The development of multi-band imagers with improved spatial resolution onboard the third-generation geostationary meteorological satellites brings us meteorological data in larger size than those of the second-generation ones. Thus, new techniques for domestic and world-wide dissemination of the observational big data are needed. In this paper, we develop a web-based data visualization for Himawari-8 satellite sensed images in real time and with full resolution. This data visualization is supported by the ecosystems, which uses a tiled pyramid representation and parallel processing technique for terrain on an academic cloud system. We evaluate the performance of our techniques for domestic and international users on laboratory experiments. The results show that our data visualization is suitable for practical use on a temporal preview of observation image data for the domestic users.  相似文献   

Noble gases in individual chondrules of the Allende CV3 chondrite     

Yayoi N. Miura  Keisuke Nagao  Makoto Kimura 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(6):1037-1056

We analyzed noble gases in nine individual chondrules, an assemblage of small chondrules, and four whole‐rock samples of the Allende CV3 chondrite. Major elements were also determined for five chondrules. The cosmic ray exposure ages are calculated from cosmogenic ³He to be 5.17 ± 0.38 and 5.15 ± 0.25 Myr for the averages of the chondrules and whole rocks, respectively, showing no significant pre‐exposure evidence for the studied chondrules. Large amounts of ³⁶Ar, ^80,82Kr, and ¹²⁸Xe produced by neutron capture are observed in most samples; the abundances of these nuclides are correlated among the samples. The epithermal neutron flux and neutron slowing down density are calculated based on [⁸⁰Kr]_n, from which a sample depth of about 30 cm can be calculated. The measured chondrules contain variable amounts of radiogenic ¹²⁹Xe. The abundance ratios of radiogenic ¹²⁹Xe to neutron capture–produced ¹²⁸Xe are rather constant among the studied chondrules; four chondrules give more precise ratios at the high‐temperature fractions, ranging from 1920 ± 80 to 2280 ± 140, which corresponds to a time difference of 3.9 ± 2.4 Myr. It is noticeable that most chondrules also contain ²⁴⁴Pu‐derived fission Xe. The average ²⁴⁴Pu/²³⁸U ratio for nine chondrules is 0.0069 ± 0.0018, which agrees well with the preferred ratio reported for chondrites.  相似文献   

Sublimation’s impact on temporal change of albedo dichotomy on Iapetus     

Jun Kimura  Taichi Kawamura  Tomokatsu Morota  Kiyoshi Kuramoto  Tatsuaki Okada 《Icarus》2011,214(2):596-605

Iapetus, one of the saturnian moons, has an extreme albedo contrast between the leading and trailing hemispheres. The origin of this albedo dichotomy has led to several hypotheses, however it remains controversial. To clarify the origin of the dichotomy, the key approach is to investigate the detailed distribution of the dark material. Recent studies of impact craters and surface temperature from Cassini spacecraft data implied that sublimation of H₂O ice can occur on Iapetus’ surface. This ice sublimation can change the albedo distribution on the moon with time.In this study, we evaluate the effect of ice sublimation and simulate the temporal change of surface albedo. We assume the dark material and the bright ice on the surface to be uniformly mixed with a certain volume fraction, and the initial albedo distribution to incorporate the dark material deposits on the surface. That is, the albedo at the apex is lowest and concentrically increases in a sinusoidal pattern. This situation simulates that dark materials existed around the Iapetus’ orbit billions of years ago, and the synchronously rotating Iapetus swept the material and then deposited it on its surface. The evolution of the surface albedo during 4.0 Gyr is simulated by estimating the surface temperature from the insolation energy on Iapetus including the effect of Saturn’s eccentricity and Iapetus’ obliquity precession, and evaluating the sublimation rate of H₂O ice from the Iapetus’ surface.As a result, we found that the distribution of the surface albedo changed dramatically after 4.0 Gyr of evolution. The sublimation has three important effects on the resultant surface albedo. First, the albedo in the leading hemisphere has significantly decreased to approach the minimum value. Second, the albedo distribution has been elongated along the equator. Third, the edge of the low albedo region has become clear. Considering the effect of ice sublimation, the current albedo distribution can be reconstructed from the sinusoidal albedo distribution, suggesting the apex-antapex cratering asymmetry as a candidate for the origin of the albedo dichotomy. From the model analysis, we obtained an important aspect that the depth of the turn-over layer where the darkening process proceeded for 4 Gyr should be an order of 10 cm, which is consistent with evaluation from the Cassini radar observations.  相似文献   

Indian MORB-type mantle beneath the Kuril Island arc: Isotopic investigation of the mafic lavas of Kunashir Island     

Yu. A. Martynov  J. -I. Kimura  A. Yu. Martynov  A. V. Rybin  M. Katakuse 《Petrology》2012,20(1):93-100

New data on the Hf, Pb, and Nd isotopes of the mafic rocks of various ages from Kunashir Island were used to address the nature of the sub-arc mantle of the southern segment of the Kuril island arc. At least since Late Cenozoic, its isotopic characteristics have been the MORB-type mantle of the Indian Ocean. Its boundary with the mantle reservoir of the Pacific MORB-type coincided probably with the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench.  相似文献   

Petrogenesis of the Kaikomagatake granitoid pluton in the Izu Collision Zone, central Japan: implications for transformation of juvenile oceanic arc into mature continental crust   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Satoshi Saito  Makoto Arima  Takashi Nakajima  Kenichiro Tani  Takashi Miyazaki  Ryoko Senda  Qing Chang  Toshiro Takahashi  Yuka Hirahara  Jun-Ichi Kimura 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,163(4):611-629

The Miocene Kaikomagatake pluton is one of the Neogene granitoid plutons exposed in the Izu Collision Zone, which is where the juvenile Izu-Bonin oceanic arc is colliding against the mature Honshu arc. The pluton intrudes into the Cretaceous to Paleogene Shimanto accretionary complex of the Honshu arc along the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, which is the collisional boundary between the two arcs. The pluton consists of hornblende–biotite granodiorite and biotite monzogranite, and has SiO₂ contents of 68–75 wt%. It has high-K series compositions, and its incompatible element abundances are comparable to the average upper continental crust. Major and trace element compositions of the pluton show well-defined chemical trends. The trends can be interpreted with a crystal fractionation model involving the removal of plagioclase, biotite, hornblende, quartz, apatite, and zircon from a potential parent magma with a composition of ~68 wt% SiO₂. The Sr isotopic compositions, together with the partial melting modeling results, suggest that the parent magma is derived by ~53% melting of a hybrid lower crustal source comprising ~30% Shimanto metasedimentary rocks of the Honshu arc and ~70% K-enriched basaltic rocks of the Izu-Bonin rear-arc region. Together with previous studies on the Izu Collision Zone granitoid plutons, the results of this study suggest that the chemical diversity within the parental magmas of the granitoid plutons reflects the chemical variation of basaltic sources (i.e., across-arc chemical variation in the Izu-Bonin arc), as well as a variable contribution of the metasedimentary component in the lower crustal source regions. In addition, the petrogenetic models of the Izu Collision Zone granitoid plutons collectively suggest that the contribution of the metasedimentary component is required to produce granitoid magma with compositions comparable to the average upper continental crust. The Izu Collision Zone plutons provide an exceptional example of the transformation of a juvenile oceanic arc into mature continental crust.  相似文献   

Tsunami deposit associated with the 2011 Tohoku‐oki tsunami in the Hasunuma site of the Kujukuri coastal plain,Japan          下载免费PDF全文

Dan Matsumoto  Yuki Sawai  Koichiro Tanigawa  Osamu Fujiwara  Yuichi Namegaya  Masanobu Shishikura  Kyoko Kagohara  Haruo Kimura 《Island Arc》2016,25(5):369-385

We describe the detailed sedimentary characteristics of a tsunami deposit associated with the 2011 Tohoku‐oki tsunami in Hasunuma, a site on the Kujukuri coastal plain, Japan. The thick tsunami deposit was limited to within 350 m from the coastline whereas the inundation area extended about 1 km from the coastline. The tsunami deposit was sampled by excavation at 29 locations along three transects and studied using peels, soft‐X imaging and grain‐size analysis. The deposit covers the pre‐existing soil and reached a maximum measured thickness of 35 cm. It consists mainly of well‐sorted medium to fine sand. On the basis of sedimentary structures and changes in grain size, we divided the tsunami deposit into several sedimentary units, which may correspond to multiple inundation flows. The numbers of units and their sedimentary features vary among the three transects, despite the similar topography. This variation implies a considerable influence of local effects such as elevation, vegetation, microtopography, and distance from footpaths, on the tsunami‐related sedimentation.  相似文献   

Degassing and magma mixing during the eruption of Surtsey Volcano (Iceland, 1963–1967): the signatures of a dynamic and discrete rift propagation event     

C. Ian Schipper  Marion Le Voyer  Yves Moussallam  James D. L. White  Thor Thordarson  Jun-Ichi Kimura  Qing Chang 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(4):33

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