Scale implications and evolution of a social vulnerability index in Atlanta,Georgia, USA     

Karanja  Joseph  Kiage  Lawrence M. 《Natural Hazards》2022,113(1):789-812

Natural Hazards - The implications of hazards on populations are accentuated or alleviated by the nature of social systems, yet the multi-scalar variations of socioeconomic and demographic...  相似文献   

Arctic Sea‐Ice extent and anomalies, 1953–1984     

Lawrence A. Mysak  Davinder K. Manak 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):376-405

Abstract

A study is presented of the seasonal and interannual variability of Arctic sea‐ice extent over the 32‐year period 1953–84. The data set used consists of monthly sea‐ice concentration values given on a 1°‐latitude grid and represents a 7‐year extension of the 25‐year data set analysed by Walsh and Johnson (1979). By focussing attention on the variability in seven distinct subregions that circumscribe the polar region, a number of interesting spatial patterns emerge in the regional seasonal cycles and anomalies of ice coverage. For example, the time‐scale of the smoothed anomaly fluctuations varies from a 4–6 year cycle in the western Arctic (e.g. the Beaufort Sea) to a decadal one in the eastern Arctic (e.g. the Barents Sea). Also, in agreement with earlier studies, a significant out‐of‐phase relationship was found between the 25‐month smoothed anomalies in the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea region and the Greenland Sea. It is proposed that this behaviour is related to atmospheric pressure anomalies associated with the see‐saw in winter air temperature between northern Europe and western Greenland. Finally, a particularly large 9‐year ice anomaly in the Greenland Sea that was centred on 1968 appears to have evolved into a substantial 4‐year Labrador Sea anomaly that peaked in 1972. Both of these anomalies coincided with the passage of the “ Great Salinity Anomaly”, which traversed cyclonically around the subpolar gyre in the northern North Atlantic during the period 1968–82.  相似文献   

Fine-Scale Characteristics of Temperature, Wind, and Turbulence in the Lower Atmosphere (0–1,300 m) Over the South Peruvian Coast     

Ben B. Balsley  Dale A. Lawrence  Ronald F. Woodman  David C. Fritts 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,147(1):165-178

We report results of preliminary high-resolution in situ atmospheric measurements through the boundary layer and lower atmosphere over the southern coast of Perú. This region of the coast is of particular interest because it lies adjacent to the northern coastal edge of the sub-tropical south-eastern Pacific, a very large area of ocean having a persistent stratus deck located just below the marine boundary layer (MBL) inversion. Typically, the boundary layer in this region during winter is topped by a quasi-permanent, well-defined, and very large temperature gradient. The data presented herein examine fine-scale details of the coastal atmosphere at a point where the edge of this MBL extends over the coastline as a result of persistent onshore flow. Atmospheric data were gathered using a recently-developed in-house constructed, GPS-controlled, micro-autonomous-vehicle aircraft (the DataHawk). Measured quantities include high-resolution profiles of temperature, wind, and turbulence structure from the surface to 1,300 m.  相似文献   

Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization     

Jieshun Zhu  Bohua Huang  Magdalena A. Balmaseda  James L. Kinter III  Peitao Peng  Zeng-Zhen Hu  Lawrence Marx 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2785-2795

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.  相似文献   

Basait generation at the Apollo 12 site,Part 2: Source heterogeneity,multiple melts,and crustal contamination     

Clive R. Neal  Matthew D. Hacker  Gregory A. Snyder  Lawrence A. Taylor  Yun-Gang Liu  Roman A. Schmitt 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1994,29(3):349-361

Abstract— The petrogenesis of Apollo 12 mare basalts has been examined with emphasis on trace-element ratios and abundances. Vitrophyric basalts were used as parental compositions for the modelling, and proportions of fractionating phases were determined using the MAGFOX program of Longhi (1991). Crystal fractionation processes within crustal and sub-crustal magma chambers are evaluated as a function of pressure. Knowledge of the fractionating phases allows trace-element variations to be considered as either source related or as a product of post-magma-generation processes. For the ilmenite and olivine basalts, trace-element variations are inherited from the source, but the pigeonite basalt data have been interpreted with open-system evolution processes through crustal assimilation. Three groups of basalts have been examined: (1) Pigeonite basalts — produced by the assimilation of lunar crustal material by a parental melt (up to 3% assimilation and 10% crystal fractionation, with an “r” value of 0.3). (2) Ilmenite basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (4–8%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, augite, and plagioclase, brought together by overturn of the Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulate pile. After generation, which did not exhaust any of the minerals in the source, these melts experienced closed-system crystal fractionation/accumulation. (3) Olivine basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (5–10%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, and augite. After generation, again without exhausting any of the minerals in the source, these melts evolved through crystal accumulation. The evolved liquid counterparts of these cumulates have not been sampled. The source compositions for the ilmenite and olivine basalts were calculated by assuming that the vitrophyric compositions were primary and the magmas were produced by non-modal batch melting. Although the magnitude is unclear, evaluation of these source regions indicates that both be composed of early- and late-stage Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulates, requiring an overturn of the cumulate pile.  相似文献   

Short time-scale optical variability of the dwarf Seyfert nucleus in NGC 4395     

J. E. Skelton  A. Lawrence  A. Pappa  P. Lira  O. Almaini 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,358(3):781-794

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The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Instrument Design     

Greg Kopp  George Lawrence 《Solar physics》2005,230(1-2):91-109

The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) instrument is designed to measure total solar irradiance with an absolute accuracy of 100 parts per million. Four electrical substitution radiometers behind precision apertures measure input radiant power while providing redundancy. Duty cycling the use of the radiometers tracks degradation of the nickel-phosphorous absorptive black radiometer interiors caused by solar exposure. Phase sensitive detection at the shutter frequency reduces noise and simplifies the estimate of the radiometer's equivalence ratio. An as-designed uncertainty budget estimates the instrument's accuracy goal. The TIM measurement equation defines the conversion from measured signal to solar irradiance.  相似文献   

XMM–Newton observations of three high-redshift radio galaxies     

E. Belsole  D. M. Worrall  M. J. Hardcastle  M. Birkinshaw  C. R. Lawrence 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,352(3):924-938

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The SCUBA 8-mJy survey – I. Submillimetre maps, sources and number counts     

S. E.Scott  M. J.Fox  J. S.Dunlop  S.Serjeant  J. A.Peacock  R. J.Ivison  S.Oliver  R. G.Mann  A.Lawrence  A.Efstathiou  M.Rowan-Robinson  D. H.Hughes  E. N.Archibald  A.Blain  M.Longair 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,331(4):817-838

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Reduced rates of primary production in the Columbia River Estuary following the eruption of Mt Saint Helens on 18 May 1980     

Bruce E. Frey  J.Rubén Lara-Lara  Lawrence F. Small 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1983,17(2):213-218

The eruption of Mt Saint Helens on 18 May 1980 resulted in a massive increase in suspended particulate material in the Columbia River Estuary, producing a substantial increase in light attenuation. Since photosynthesis in the estuarine water column is partly controlled by the depth of light penetration in the water, photosynthesis was reduced by about 75% during the period of increased turbidity. It took about five weeks for the estuary to clear. Although primary production within the estuarine water column was greatly diminished during this period, the flux of particulate carbon through the estuary was high, and the total production we estimate to have been lost amounted to only about 2% of the total particulate carbon flux just after the eruption. That the high levels of turbidity in the estuary did not induce a severe fall in the phytoplankton population is evidence that phytoplankton biomass concentrations in the Columbia River Estuary are mostly a function of import from the Columbia River, rather than a function of in situ production.  相似文献