Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.
Results
All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.
Conclusions
No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.
This paper describes the main features related to lateral displacements with depth after successive lateral loading–unloading cycles applied to the top of reinforced-concrete flexible bored piles embedded in naturally bonded residual soil. The bored piles under study have a cylindrical shape, with 0.40-m in diameter and 8.0-m in length. Both bored piles types (P1 and P2) include an embedded steel pipe section in their center as longitudinal steel reinforcements: pile type P1 has another 16 steel rods as steel reinforcement to concrete while pile type P2 has no further steel reinforcement. Pile type P1 has three times as much stiffness (EI) and four and a half times the plastic moment (My) than pile type P2. A similar load–displacement performance was observed at initial loads as for small displacements of both piles. At this initial loading stage, the response of the reinforced concrete piles is a function of the soil characteristics and of a linear elastic pile deformation. During this stage, piles can even be understood as probes for evaluating soil reactions. For larger horizontal displacements, after the concrete section starts undergoing large deformations, approaching the ultimate bending moment, pile behavior and consequently the load–displacement relation starts to diverge for both piles. For pile P1 the values of relevant lateral displacements are extended to about 2.5-m in depth, while for pile P2 lateral displacements are mostly constrained to about 2.0-m in depth. Measurements of horizontal displacements of pile P1 against depth recorded with a slope indicator show that, after unloading, lateral loads at distinct stages (small and near failure loads), exhibits a much higher elastic phase of the system response. An analytical fitting model of soil reaction is proposed based on the measured displacements from slope indicator. The integration of a continuous model proposed for the soil reaction agrees fairly well with the measured displacements up to moments close to plastic limit. Results of load–displacement show that the stiffer pile (P1) was able to mobilize twice as much lateral load compared to pile P2 for a service limit displacement of about 20 mm. The paper shows results that enable the isolation of the structural variable through real scale pile load tests, thus granting understanding of its importance and enabling its quantitative visualization in examples of piles embedded in residual soil sites.
Hydrogeology Journal - The dynamics related to evolution of nitrate-contaminated groundwater are analyzed with focus on the impact of intrinsic aquifer properties, agricultural activities and... 相似文献
Mathematical Geosciences - Closed terrain depressions are geomorphic features that show scale invariance over the wide range of scales on which they occur, from metres to thousands of kilometres.... 相似文献
While carbon pricing is widely seen as a crucial element of climate policy and has been implemented in many countries, it also has met with strong resistance. We provide a comprehensive overview of public perceptions of the fairness of carbon pricing and how these affect policy acceptability. To this end, we review evidence from empirical studies on how individuals judge personal, distributional and procedural aspects of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. In addition, we examine preferences for particular redistributive and other uses of revenues generated by carbon pricing and their role in instrument acceptability. Our results indicate a high concern over distributional effects, particularly in relation to policy impacts on poor people, in turn reducing policy acceptability. In addition, people show little trust in the capacities of governments to put the revenues of carbon pricing to good use. Somewhat surprisingly, most studies do not indicate clear public preferences for using revenues to ensure fairer policy outcomes, notably by reducing its regressive effects. Instead, many people prefer using revenues for ‘environmental projects’ of various kinds. We end by providing recommendations for improving public acceptability of carbon pricing. One suggestion to increase policy acceptability is combining the redistribution of revenue to vulnerable groups with the funding for environmental projects, such as on renewable energy.
Key policy insights
If people perceive carbon pricing instruments as fair, this increases policy acceptability and support.
People’s satisfaction with information provided by the government about the policy instrument increases acceptability.
While people express high concern over uneven distribution of the policy burden, they often prefer using carbon pricing revenues for environmental projects instead of compensation for inequitable outcomes.
Recent studies find that people’s preferences shift to using revenues for making policy fairer if they better understand the functioning of carbon pricing, notably that relatively high prices of CO2-intensive goods and services reduce their consumption.
Combining the redistribution of revenue to support both vulnerable groups and environmental projects, such as on renewable energy, seems to most increase policy acceptability.
Patellid limpets are key species on rocky shores, structuring intertidal assemblages through their grazing. Their role as prey for fish is, however, often overlooked in studies of intertidal ecosystem functioning. The shanny Lipophrys pholis is a common predator of limpets on rocky shores in Northern Europe and, in this study, we examined the characteristics of its predation on limpets based on prey size. The limpet size range that adult L. pholis (10–12.5 cm) can eat was examined in the laboratory using Patella depressa in 0.2 cm classes, varying between 0.5 cm and 3.0 cm in maximum shell length. There was a limpet size refuge above 1.8 cm, while all smaller sizes were readily consumed by the shanny. The predator attacking behaviour was also examined and found to vary with prey size. Limpets up to 0.8 cm were crushed by the jaw‐constricting force and eaten whole, whereas larger prey were prised from the substratum and the body subsequently separated from the shell. To examine whether there was a L. pholis preference for P. depressa size, a two‐stage laboratory experiment was done using two size classes defined as small (0.7–0.8 cm maximum shell length) and large (1.5–1.6 cm maximum shell length). In the first stage, the predator was given each limpet size class separately. In the second stage, the fish was given a choice between the two classes. Lipophrys pholis was shown to have a preference for the large size class (1.5–1.6 cm). The average number of limpets consumed by the shanny was examined for the duration of one high‐tide typical of the central region of Portugal (≈ 4 h). On average, approximately five limpets (up to an eight limpet maximum) were consumed. The present study shows that L. pholis has a feeding preference based on limpet size, which suggests that the limpet population structure and intra‐ and inter‐specific interactions may be influenced by the shanny predation. 相似文献
The late Holocene is of particular interest to our understanding of the evolution of coastal sedimentary systems because this period encompasses warmer and cooler periods, and rising sea level in northern Europe. Based on an approach combining AMS 14C, sedimentological and rock magnetic analyses on sediment cores complemented with seismic data collected in the macrotidal Bay of Vilaine (south Brittany), we document the depositional history of the inner bay coeval to the mid- to late-Holocene transgression in south Brittany. Correlation between sedimentary archives revealed the main sedimentary infilling phases during the last 6000 years. Four units (U1–U4) are recognized in the coastal sediment wedge of the system, corresponding to the stepwise marine invasion of the bay. We show that (1) marine inundation, due to the steep morphology of the bedrock, is diachronous between distal and proximal records. A time lag of ～1000 years is inferred over a distance of less than 5 km; (2) in the outer areas, the sedimentation has been condensed since 3000 years; (3) proximal estuarine archives offer the best record of sedimentary processes covering the last 2000 years, including the Medieval Warm Period (MWP).Correlations in proximal records in the Bay of Vilaine assess the connection between coastal sedimentary dynamics, climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities during the MWP. We match the preservation of clay deposits to increased river-borne suspended matter transported to the estuary probably as a result of accelerated land-use development (higher soil erosion) in the catchment area between ca. 880 and 1050 AD. Because the preservation of estuarine sedimentary successions is favoured when coastal wave sediment reworking is minimal, it is proposed that the prevailing climatic regime in south Brittany during the MWP likely resembled to that of the preferred negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our data are fairly consistent with other late Holocene records from northern Europe including the Atlantic seaboard. However, they outline the difficulty in interpreting climatic and anthropogenic signatures in coastal sedimentary records where high-resolution chronologies required to unravel their respective influences are still missing. 相似文献
Cerro Machín is a dacitic tuff ring located in the central part of the Colombian Andes. It lies at the southern end of the Cerro Bravo–Cerro Machín volcanic belt. This volcano has experienced at least six major explosive eruptions during the last 5000 years. These eruptions have generated pyroclastic flows associated with Plinian activity that have traveled up to 8 km from the crater, and pyroclastic flows associated with Vulcanian activity with shorter runouts of 5 km from the source. Today, some 21,000 people live within a 8 km radius of Cerro Machín. The volcano is active with fumaroles and has shown increasing seismic activity since 2004, and therefore represents a potentially increasing threat to the local population. To evaluate the possible effects of future eruptions that may generate pyroclastic density currents controlled by granular flow dynamics we performed flow simulations with the TITAN2D code. These simulations were run in all directions around the volcano, using the input parameters of the largest eruption reported. The results show that an eruption of 0.3 km3 of pyroclastic flows from a collapsing Plinian column would travel up to 9 km from the vent, emplacing a deposit thicker than 60 m within the Toche River valley. Deposits >45 m thick can be expected in the valleys of San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral creeks, while 30 m thick deposits could accumulate within the drainages of the Tochecito, Bermellón, and Coello Rivers. A minimum area of 56 km2 could be affected directly by this kind of eruption. In comparison, Vulcanian column-collapse pyroclastic flows of 0.1 km3 would travel up to 6 km from the vent depositing >45 m thick debris inside the Toche River valley and more than 30 m inside the valleys of San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral creeks. The minimum area that could be affected directly by this kind of eruption is 33 km2. The distribution and thickness of the deposits obtained by these simulations are consistent with the hazard map presented by INGEOMINAS (Geological Survey of Colombia) in 2002. The composite map of the simulated flow deposits suggests that after major explosive events such as these, the generation of lahars is probable. 相似文献
