Climatology of meteorological “bombs” in the New Zealand region     

L. M. Leslie  M. Leplastrier  B. W. Buckley  L. Qi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2005,89(1-4):207-214

Summary The purpose of this paper is to present a recently developed climatology of explosively developing south eastern Tasman Sea extra-tropical cyclones, or meteorological “bombs”, using a latitude dependent definition for meteorological bombs based on that of Simmonds and Keay (2000a, b), and Lim and Simmonds (2002). These highly transient systems, which have a damaging impact upon New Zealand, are frequently accompanied by destructive winds, flood rains, and coastal storm surges. Two cases are selected from the climatology and briefly described here. The first case study is the major flood and storm force wind event of June 20 to 21, 2002 that affected the Coromandel Peninsula region of the North Island of New Zealand. The second case was a “supercyclone” bomb that developed well to the southwest of New Zealand region during May 29 to 31, 2004, but which could easily have formed in the New Zealand region with catastrophic consequences. It was well-captured by the new high resolution Quikscat scatterometer instrument.This study extends the work of two of the authors (Buckley and Leslie, 2004; Buckley and Leslie, 2000; Qi and Leslie, 2000), on southern hemisphere meteorological bombs, to yet another geographical location. Here, we relied heavily on surface observations, scatterometer and other satellite-derived data, and weather radar imagery in developing the climatology.  相似文献   

Developing a high-resolution climatology for the Central California coastal region     

Hyun-Sook Kim  Avijit Gangopadhyay  Leslie K. Rosenfeld  Frank L. Bub 《Continental Shelf Research》2007

This work presents a procedure for developing a high-resolution, regional climatology estimate, named RClimo, off the coast of central California. This high-resolution climatology may provide an alternative way to initialize numerical nowcast/forecast exercises in coastal regions. The methodology includes two primary steps: (1) averaging available data on a high-resolution grid and (2) objective interpolating the resulting average profiles onto a regular grid. The first step involves the computation of averages over density layers in the vertical and allowing for data gaps in the horizontal if data are unavailable at a high resolution. The OA in the second step uses anisotropic correlation length scales derived from the data themselves and an averaging radius to preserve the scales and variability of the synoptic fields.  相似文献   

Monitoring Networks in Fractured Rocks: A Decision Analysis Approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Karen Jardine  Leslie Smith  Tom Clemo 《Ground water》1996,34(3):504-518

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Relationships between water availability and Eucalyptus camaldulensis growth in a riparian forest     

P.E. Bacon  C. Stone  D.L. Binns  D.J. Leslie  D.W. Edwards 《Journal of Hydrology》1993,150(2-4):541-561

The effects of short-term flooding on soil water content and subsequent tree response were examined in a riparian Eucalyptus camaldulensis forest which was dissected by a series of shallow ephemeral channels, locally known as runners. Twelve isolated plots, each approximately 0.8 ha, were established in three blocks of four treatments. One of the blocks was underlain by a moist, sandy aquifer 2–4 m below the surface. The four treatments were (1) flooding each spring; (2) flooding each summer; (3) flooding each spring plus each summer; (4) control (zero flooding). Depth of water percolation after a summer flooding varied from 1.3 to over 6 m below the surface. Horizontal movement away from the edge of the floodwater ranged from almost zero on some plots to at least 38 m. The extensive horizontal movement was confined within narrow aquifers which occurred under some plots. Trees in plots underlain by a shallow aquifer always had higher xylem pressure potential (XPP, MPa) than other trees, and flooding these plots increased XPP by a non-significant quantity (−0.14 MPa to −0.12 MPa). However, on the other plots, flooding resulted in a statistically significant increase in XPP from −0.45 to −0.10 MPa. The effect of flooding on XPP was evident for between 22.5 and 37.5 m from the floodwater. This was ascribed to root interception and some horizontal movement of water. Increased flood frequency from zero to one to two per year resulted in mean leaf areas of 11.0 cm², 12.2 cm² and 13.2 cm², respectively. Trees in the runner, at 8 or at 38 m from the channels, had mean leaf areas of 12.9 cm², 13.6 cm² and 9.9 cm², respectively. The presence of shallow aquifers increased mean leaf area from 11.5 to 13.3 cm². Increased flood frequency significantly increased relative growth rate of trees up to 22.5 m from the edge of the floodwater. We conclude that short-term flooding of channels that occupied 15–20% of the forest floor temporarily improved tree moisture status and this increased tree growth rate in up to 70% of the forest.  相似文献   

Variability of tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution climate model     

L. M. Leslie  D. J. Karoly  M. Leplastrier  B. W. Buckley 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2007,97(1-4):171-180

Summary Knowledge of the variability in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and distribution is essential in determining the possible impact of natural or human-induced climate change. This variability can be investigated using the available TC data bases and by carrying out long-term climate model simulations for both past and future climates. A coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model (referred to here as the OU-CGCM) is described and applied with a higher resolution (50 km) nested domain in the southwest Pacific region. Six-member ensembles of simulations with the OU-CGCM have been run for 80 years, from 1970 to 2050. During the period 1970–2000, the OU-CGCM runs were compared with the observed TC data base. For the period 2000–2050, two ensembles of simulations were performed, one with constant greenhouse gas concentrations and the second with increasing greenhouse gases. The OU-CGCM simulated well the observed TC frequency and distribution in the southwest Pacific during the period 1970–2000. It also produced clear interannual and interdecadal TC variability in both the fixed and enhanced greenhouse gas simulations during the period 2000–2050. The variability in TC frequencies was associated with the typical atmospheric and SST anomaly patterns that occur in periods of quiet and active TC frequencies. The main findings from the enhanced greenhouse gas scenario for the period 2000–2050 are: no change in the mean decadal number of TCs relative to the control run, but a marked increase of about 15% in the mean decadal number of TCs in the most severe WMO categories 4 and 5; the likelihood of TCs during the next 50-year period that are more intense than ever previously experienced in the Australian region; a poleward extension of TC tracks; and a poleward shift of over 2 degrees of latitude in the TC genesis region.  相似文献   

Conservation as disturbance: Upheaval and livelihood diversification near Tarangire National Park,northern Tanzania     

Timothy D. Baird  Paul W. Leslie 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1131-1141

Recent studies have identified poverty reduction near parks and protected areas, findings that challenge an extensive literature on the social burdens associated with protected areas. These studies move the discussion on the social dynamics of conservation forward, however, they do not offer insight into the underlying mechanisms that shape household-level outcomes such as income and wealth. By focusing on protected areas as centers of uncertainty, upheaval, and disturbance, this study examines the character and incidence of livelihood diversification within communities near Tarangire National Park in northern Tanzania compared to communities far from the park. Livelihood diversification is well understood as a coping and/or risk mitigation strategy pursued in response to various types of shocks, and uncertainty more generally. This study draws on mixed methodologies to construct multivariate statistical models to estimate the effect of proximity to the park on measures of livelihood diversification. The results indicate that proximity to park is strongly correlated with livelihood diversification, suggesting that households near the park are adapting to opportunities and constraints and may be seeking to reduce variance in income and wealth in response to disturbances and uncertainty associated with the park.  相似文献   

The Monitor project: rotation of low-mass stars in the open cluster NGC 2516     

Jonathan Irwin  Simon Hodgkin  Suzanne Aigrain  Leslie Hebb  Jerome Bouvier  Cathie Clarke  Estelle Moraux  D. M. Bramich 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,377(2):741-758

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The Monitor project: JW 380 – a 0.26-, 0.15-M_⊙, pre-main-sequence eclipsing binary in the Orion nebula cluster     

Jonathan Irwin  Suzanne Aigrain  Simon Hodgkin  Keivan G. Stassun  Leslie Hebb  Mike Irwin  Estelle Moraux  Jerome Bouvier  Aude Alapini  Richard Alexander  D. M. Bramich  Jon Holtzman  Eduardo L. Martín  Mark J. McCaughrean  Frédéric Pont  P. E. Verrier  María Rosa Zapatero Osorio 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,380(2):541-550

We present a general recipe for constructing N -body realizations of galaxies comprising near spherical and disc components. First, an exact spherical distribution function for the spheroids (halo and bulge) is determined, such that it is in equilibrium with the gravitational monopole of the disc components. Second, an N -body realization of this model is adapted to the full disc potential by growing the latter adiabatically from its monopole. Finally, the disc is sampled with particles drawn from an appropriate distribution function, avoiding local-Maxwellian approximations. We performed test simulations and find that the halo and bulge radial density profile very closely match their target model, while they become slightly oblate due to the added disc gravity. Our findings suggest that vertical thickening of the initially thin disc is caused predominantly by spiral and bar instabilities, which also result in a radial re-distribution of matter, rather than scattering off interloping massive halo particles.  相似文献   

Data selection using support vector regression     

Michael B.RICHMAN  Lance M.LESLIE  Theodore B.TRAFALIS  Hicham MANSOURI 《大气科学进展》2015,32(3):277-286

Geophysical data sets are growing at an ever-increasing rate, requiring computationally efficient data selection(thinning)methods to preserve essential information. Satellites, such as Wind Sat, provide large data sets for assessing the accuracy and computational efficiency of data selection techniques. A new data thinning technique, based on support vector regression(SVR), is developed and tested. To manage large on-line satellite data streams, observations from Wind Sat are formed into subsets by Voronoi tessellation and then each is thinned by SVR(TSVR). Three experiments are performed. The first confirms the viability of TSVR for a relatively small sample, comparing it to several commonly used data thinning methods(random selection, averaging and Barnes filtering), producing a 10% thinning rate(90% data reduction), low mean absolute errors(MAE) and large correlations with the original data. A second experiment, using a larger dataset, shows TSVR retrievals with MAE < 1 m s-1and correlations 0.98. TSVR was an order of magnitude faster than the commonly used thinning methods. A third experiment applies a two-stage pipeline to TSVR, to accommodate online data. The pipeline subsets reconstruct the wind field with the same accuracy as the second experiment, is an order of magnitude faster than the nonpipeline TSVR. Therefore, pipeline TSVR is two orders of magnitude faster than commonly used thinning methods that ingest the entire data set. This study demonstrates that TSVR pipeline thinning is an accurate and computationally efficient alternative to commonly used data selection techniques.  相似文献   

Recent Developments in the Analysis of the Black Mat Layer and Cosmic Impact at 12.8 ka     

William C. Mahaney  Leslie Keiser  David H. Krinsley  Allen West  Randy Dirszowsky  Chris C.R. Allen  Pedro Costa 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2014,96(1):99-111

Recent analyses of sediment samples from “black mat” sites in South America and Europe support previous interpretations of an ET impact event that reversed the Late Glacial demise of LGM ice during the Bølling Allerød warming, resulting in a resurgence of ice termed the Younger Dryas (YD) cooling episode. The breakup or impact of a cosmic vehicle at the YD boundary coincides with the onset of a 1‐kyr long interval of glacial resurgence, one of the most studied events of the Late Pleistocene. New analytical databases reveal a corpus of data indicating that the cosmic impact was a real event, most possibly a cosmic airburst from Earth's encounter with the Taurid Complex comet or unknown asteroid, an event that led to cosmic fragments exploding interhemispherically over widely dispersed areas, including the northern Andes of Venezuela and the Alps on the Italian/French frontier. While the databases in the two areas differ somewhat, the overall interpretation is that microtextural evidence in weathering rinds and in sands of associated paleosols and glaciofluvial deposits carry undeniable attributes of melted glassy carbon and Fe spherules, planar deformation features, shock‐melted and contorted quartz, occasional transition and platinum metals, and brecciated and impacted minerals of diverse lithologies. In concert with other black mat localities in the Western USA, the Netherlands, coastal France, Syria, Central Asia, Peru, Argentina and Mexico, it appears that a widespread cosmic impact by an asteroid or comet is responsible for deposition of the black mat at the onset of the YD glacial event. Whether or not the impact caused a 1‐kyr interval of glacial climate depends upon whether or not the Earth had multiple centuries‐long episodic encounters with the Taurid Complex or asteroid remnants; impact‐related changes in microclimates sustained climatic forcing sufficient to maintain positive mass balances in the reformed ice; and/or inertia in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation system persisted for 1 kyr.  相似文献