Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yanqiong Xie  Fengsi Wei  Xueshang Feng  Dingkun Zhong 《Solar physics》2006,234(2):363-377

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.  相似文献   

昆仑山8.1级地震前中国大陆的构造应变背景   总被引：10，自引：4，他引：6  

杨少敏  王琪 《大地测量与地球动力学》2003,23(3):61-65

利用“网络工程”1998～2001年累积的1181个测站的GPS重复观测资料，采用双三次样条函数模型建立中国大陆水平运动模型速度场，用大地坐标在椭球面上计算各类应变场，详细分析了2001年昆仑山8．1级地震前中国大陆水平构造应变场空间分布特征。各类构造应变场的最高值都出现在喜马拉雅构造带与昆仑山地块内(地震断裂带南侧)，鲜水河—安宁河断裂带次之。分析表明，昆仑山8．1级地震正好发生在张性面膨胀应变率的高值区，第一、第二和最大剪应变率高值区边缘的突变区和最大、最小主应变率的高值区。  相似文献   

Pollen-based reconstructions of Holocene vegetation and climatic change of Tibetan Plateau     

唐领余  李春海  于革  沈才明 《极地研究(英文版)》2003,14(2)

A synthesis of Holocene pollen records from the Tibetan Plateau shows the history of vegetation and climatic changes during the Holocene. Palynological evidences from 24 cores/sections have been compiled and show that the vegetation shifted from subalpine/alpine conifer forest to subalpine/alpine evergreen sclerophyllous forest in the southeastern part of the plateau; from alpine steppe to alpine desert in the central, western and northern part; and from alpine meadow to alpine steppe in the eastern and southern plateau regions during the Holocene. These records show that increases in precipitation began about 9 ka from the southeast, and a wide ranging level of increased humidity developed over the entire of the plateau around 8-7 ka, followed by aridity from 6 ka and a continuous drying over the plateau after 4-3 ka. The changes in Holocene climates of the plateau can be interpreted qualitatively as a response to orbital forcing and its secondary effects on the Indian Monsoon which expanded northwards  相似文献   

利用自回归模型检测地球极移重力效应     

杨学峰  孙和平  徐建桥 《大地测量与地球动力学》2004,24(2):110-114

同时采用4个台站的国际超导重力仪长期连续重力观测资料和国际地球自转服务中心提供的同步地球自转参数，研究了极移引起的地球重力场变化特征。利用自回归模型估计了各序列的功率谱密度和积谱密度，结果表明极移导致的重力效应的主要能量集中在Chandler摆动和周年项附近，叠积后实际重力观测与极移重力信号理论值之间的差异分别为0．4％和3．9％，说明超导重力仪可有效监测极移导致的重力变化。  相似文献   

行星天文学的重要地位及其热点     

张威  朱进 《天文学进展》2002,20(4):379-383

对1995年至2001年《Natue》和《Science》上发表的天文学论文的统计表明，行星天文学领域的论文数量明显超过天文学的其它分支学科，占天文学总论文数的1/3左右。从这个角度来看，行星天文学是天文学最活跃和重要的分支学科之一。对这些论文具体内容的分析可以给出当前行星天文学领域的若干热点问题。相比之下，我国对这一重要领域的关注和投入还远远不够。  相似文献   

地震前后垂直形变场动态演化的量化指标   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

张四新  王双绪  陈兵  李风琴 《大地测量与地球动力学》2004,24(3):35-40

提出一种表达垂直形变场动态演化过程的量化指标——区域应变率、应变集中度。在此基础上，对南北地震带各水准监测区近30年的垂直形变资料进行了实际计算．并结合具体震例进行了对比研究。结果表明：量化指标在一定程度上能够反映地震前后形变场的动态演化过程和地壳运动状态，对地震的中长期预报有一定的积极意义。  相似文献   

Calibration of the kinematic method of studying solar wind disturbances on the basis of a one-dimensional MHD solution and a simulation study of the heliosphere disturbances between 22 november and 6 december 1977     

Wei Sun  S.-I. Akasofu  Z.K. Smith  M. Dryer 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(8):933-943

An empirical kinematic method developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982) is calibrated on the basis of a one-dimensional MHD solution. The calibrated results are used to simulate the stream-stream interaction and the background corotating structure in a simple situation and also during 22 November–6 December 1977. The solar wind disturbances caused by solar activities during this period are then introduced into the above background stream in simulating the heliospheric disturbance event which was observed by an aligned set of spacecraft at distances between 0.6 and 1.6 a.u. The observations and the simulated results are satisfactory, and a little more refinement in the simulation could reconstruct reasonably well the data by filling the data gaps in the solar wind speed, the density and the IMF magnitude.  相似文献   

基于PowerBuilder的信息系统的权限控制     

罗卫敏 《成都信息工程学院学报》2004,19(2):209-213

针对信息系统安全的考虑,介绍在PowerBuilder环境中对用户权限的具体控制.  相似文献   

Microwave Type III Burst Group in the 1993 October 2 Flare     

Qijun Fu  Zhihai Qin  Yuying Liu  Guangli Huang 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,250(2):189-204

Microwave Type III bursts with positive frequency drifting rate were found by Stahli and Benz (1987) for first time. Type III events are especially interesting because they are well-known to be signatures of electron beams in coronal plasma, and they are effective means for diagnosting of source plasma. A microwave burst consisting of some microwave type III burst groups was registered at Beijing Astronomical Observatory with the 2545–2645–2840 MHz synchronous observing system. The distributions of frequency drifting rate, half power duration, and intensity for each impulse in the groups have been statistically analysed. From this analysis, some important parameters for the dynamic process in the flare are deduced and discussed.  相似文献   

阿吾拉勒山西段二叠纪火山岩组合与构造环境分析     

姜常义  吴文奎  谢广成  李伍平 《地球科学与环境学报》1992,(4)

阿吾拉勒山体西段发育了厚度巨大的下二叠统火山岩,这些火山岩均属碱性玄武岩系列,以钾质类型为主,钠质类型次之,岩浆演化呈现出跨越B型趋势。这种火山活动是在大陆地壳内部产生的,代表了陆内裂谷演化的早期阶段。在早二叠世末期,由于受到新源运动的影响,这种火山活动被终止了。  相似文献