Significance tests for covariate-dependent trends in inhomogeneous spatio-temporal point processes     

Carlos Díaz-Avalos  P. Juan  J. Mateu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):593-609

Modeling and inference for spatial and spatio-temporal point processes is an issue that has been broadly investigated in the last years. Application fields such as forestry, epidemiology and ecology have been the main engine driving such raised interest. The inclusion of spatially varying covariates in the models for the intensity function is becoming of particular interest, but little attention has been paid to testing the significance of such covariates. Testing the significance of covariates is important if one seeks to explain which covariates have an effect in the spatial or spatio-temporal distribution of the point pattern observed. We thus provide practical procedures to build statistical tests of significance for covariates that have an effect on the intensity function of a point pattern. Our approximation focuses on the conditional intensity function, by considering nonparametric kernel-based estimators. We calculate thinning probabilities under the conditions of absence and presence of a covariate and compare them through divergence measures. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, we approximate the statistical properties of our tests under a variety of practical scenarios. An application on testing the significance of a covariate in a spatio-temporal data set on wildfires is also developed.  相似文献   

A smoothed ANOVA model for multivariate ecological regression   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Marc Marí-Dell’Olmo  Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito  Mercè Gotsens  Laia Palència 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):695-706

Smoothed analysis of variance (SANOVA) has recently been proposed for carrying out disease mapping. The main advantage of this approach is its conceptual simplicity and ease of interpretation. Moreover, it allows us to fix the combination of diseases of particular interest in advance and to make specific inferences about them. In this paper we propose a reformulation of SANOVA in the context of ecological regression studies. This proposal considers the introduction in a non-parametric way of one (or several) covariate(s) into the model, explaining some pre-specified combinations of the outcome variables. In addition, random effects are also incorporated in order to model geographical variation in the combinations of outcome variables not explained by the covariate. Lastly, the model permits the decomposition of the variance in the set of outcome variables into different orthogonal components, quantifying the contribution of every one of them. The proposed model is applied to the geographical analysis of mortality due to malignant stomach neoplasm among women resident in the city of Barcelona (Spain). The available outcome variables are deaths grouped into two time periods, and a socioeconomic deprivation index is included as a covariate. The model has been implemented through INLA, a novel inference tool for Bayesian statistics.  相似文献   

Prediction of PM10 and SO2 exceedances to control air pollution in the Bay of Algeciras,Spain     

E. Muñoz  M. L. Martín  I. J. Turias  M. J. Jimenez-Come  F. J. Trujillo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1409-1420

In this paper, the authors apply different classification techniques in order to provide 24 h advance forecasts of the daily peaks of SO₂ and PM10 concentrations in the Bay of Algeciras. K-nearest-neighbours, multilayer neural network with backpropagation and support vector machines (SVMs) are the classification methods used. The aim of this research is to obtain a suitable prediction model that would enable us to predict the peaks of pollutant concentrations in critical meteorological situations caused by the widespread existing industry and population in the area. A resampling strategy with twofold crossvalidation has been applied, using different quality indexes to evaluate the performance of the prediction models. SVM models achieved better true positive rate and accuracy (ACC) quality indexes. Results of ACC index value of 0.795 for PM10 and 0.755 for SO₂ showed the ability of the model to predict peaks and non-peaks correctly.  相似文献   

Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín,Colombia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez  Daniela Zuloaga-Romero  Gabriel A. Bernal  Miguel G. Mora  Omar-Darío Cardona 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(2):671-695

A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates.  相似文献   

Modeling flocculation in a hypertidal estuary     

Rafael Ramírez-Mendoza  Alejandro J. Souza  Laurent O. Amoudry 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(2):301-313

When fine particles are involved, cohesive properties of sediment can result in flocculation and significantly complicate sediment process studies. We combine data from field observations and state-of-the-art modeling to investigate and predict flocculation processes within a hypertidal estuary. The study site is the Welsh Channel located at the entrance of the Dee Estuary in Liverpool Bay. Field data consist of measurements from a fixed site deployment during 12–22 February 2008. Grain size, suspended sediment volume concentration, and current velocity were obtained hourly from moored instruments at 1.5 m above bed. Near-bottom water samples taken every hour from a research vessel are used to convert volume concentrations to mass concentrations for the moored measurements. We use the hydrodynamic model Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) coupled with the turbulence model General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and a sediment module to obtain three-dimensional distributions of suspended particulate matter (SPM). Flocculation is identified by changes in grain size. Small flocs were found during flood and ebb periods—and correlate with strong currents—due to breakup, while coarse flocs were present during slack waters because of aggregation. A fractal number of 2.4 is found for the study site. Turbulent stresses and particle settling velocities are estimated and are found to be related via an exponential function. The result is a simple semiempirical formulation for the fall velocity of the particles solely depending on turbulent stresses. The formula is implemented in the full three-dimensional model to represent changes in particle size due to flocculation processes. Predictions from the model are in agreement with observations for both settling velocity and SPM. The SPM fortnight variability was reproduced by the model and the concentration peaks are almost in phase with those from field data.  相似文献   

Models for reproducing the damage scenario of the Lorca earthquake     

A. Rivas-Medina  S. Martínez-Cuevas  L. E. Quirós  J. M. Gaspar-Escribano  A. Staller 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2075-2093

A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.  相似文献   

Local site effect microzonation of Lorca town (SE Spain)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Navarro  A. García-Jerez  F. J. Alcalá  F. Vidal  T. Enomoto 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):1933-1959

Local site effect assessment based on subsurface ground conditions is often the key to evaluate urban seismic hazard. The site effect evaluation in Lorca town (south-eastern Spain) started with a classification of urban geology through the geological mapping at scale 1:10,000 and the use of geotechnical data and geophysical surveys. The 17 geological formations identified were classified into 5 geological/seismic formations according to their seismic amplification capacity obtained from ambient vibration measurements as well as from simultaneous strong motion records. The shear-wave velocity structure of each geological/seismic formation was evaluated by means of inversion of Rayleigh wave dispersion data obtained from vertical-component array records of ambient noise. Nakamura’s method was applied to determine a predominant period distribution map. The spectral amplification factors were fourfold the values recorded in a reference hard-rock site. Finally, the capability of this study for explaining the damage distribution caused by the May 11th, 2011 Lorca destructive earthquake (Mw \(=\) 5.2) was examined. The methods used in this work are of assistance to evaluate ground amplification phenomena in urban areas of complex geology as Lorca town due to future earthquakes with applicability on urban seismic risk management.  相似文献   

Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation     

Martín Jesús Rodríguez-Peces  Julián García-Mayordomo  José Jesús Martínez-Díaz 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):1961-1976

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).  相似文献   

Tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series in the Southeastern Betic Cordillera,Spain     

Emilio Rodríguez-Escudero  José J. Martínez-Díaz  José A. Álvarez-Gómez  Juan M. Insua-Arévalo  Ramón Capote del Villar 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):1831-1854

In this work we analyze the tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series occurred in the Internal Zones of the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain) and surrounding areas, the tectonic region where took place the 11th May 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca earthquake. We revisit and make a synthesis of the seven largest and damaging seismic series occurred from 1984 to 2011. We analyze their seismotectonic setting, and their geological sources under the light of recent advances in the knowledge on active faults, neotectonics, seismotectonics and stress regime, with special attention focused on the Lorca Earthquake. These seismic series are characterized by two types of focal mechanisms, produced mainly by two sets of active faults, NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW small (no larger than 20–30 km) extensional faults with some strike slip component, and E–W to NE–SW large strike slip faults (more than 50 km long) with some compressional component (oblique slip faults). The normal fault earthquakes related to the smaller faults are dominant in the interior of large crustal tectonic blocks that are bounded by the large E–W to NE–SW strike-slip faults. The strike slip earthquakes are associated to the reactivation of segments or intersegment regions of the large E–W to NE–SW faults bounding those crustal tectonic blocks. Most of the seismic series studied in this work can be interpreted as part of the background seismicity that occurs within the crustal blocks that are strained under a transpressional regime driven by the major strike slip shear corridors bounding the blocks. The seismotectonic analysis and the phenomenology of the studied series indicate that it is usual the occurrence of damaging compound earthquakes of M  \(\sim \)  5.0 associated with triggering processes driven by coseismic stress transfer. These processes mainly occur in the seismic series generated by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW faults. These mechanical interaction processes may induce a higher frequency of occurrence of this kind of earthquakes than considered in traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and it should be taken into account in future seismic hazard assessments.  相似文献   

Adsorption of Arsenite from Groundwater Using Titanium Dioxide          下载免费PDF全文

Miriam Z. López Paraguay  José Apolinar Cortes  Juan F. Pérez‐Robles  María T. Alarcón‐Herrera 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(6):713-721

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