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481.
Giggenbach (1981) has proposed a relation of van't Hoff form, log10PCO2 = A ? B/(t + 273), between temperature and CO2 partial pressure in deep liquid in geothermal systems. The proposed values for the coefficients are A = 15.26, B = 7850.The proposal is not supported by pressure-temperature data used by Giggenbach, and a survey of different fields indicates that the proposal is not valid.  相似文献   
482.
483.
The sensitivity of the representation of the global monsoon annual cycle to horizontal resolution is compared in three AGCMs:the Met Office Unified Model-Global Atmosphere 3.0;the Meteorological Research Institute AGCM3;and the Global High Resolution AGCM from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.For each model,we use two horizontal resolution configurations for the period 1998–2008.Increasing resolution consistently improves simulated precipitation and low-level circulation of the annual mean and the first two annual cycle modes,as measured by the pattern correlation coefficient and equitable threat score.Improvements in simulating the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal are region-dependent.No consistent response to resolution is found in simulating summer monsoon retreat.Regionally,increased resolution reduces the positive bias in simulated annual mean precipitation,the two annual-cycle modes over the West African monsoon and Northwestern Pacific monsoon.An overestimation of the solstitial mode and an underestimation of the equinoctial asymmetric mode of the East Asian monsoon are reduced in all high-resolution configurations.Systematic errors exist in lower-resolution models for simulating the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon.Higher resolution models consistently improve the early summer monsoon onset over East Asia and West Africa,but substantial differences exist in the responses over the Indian monsoon region,where biases differ across the three low-resolution AGCMs.This study demonstrates the importance of a multi-model comparison when examining the added value of resolution and the importance of model physical parameterizations for simulation of the Indian monsoon.  相似文献   
484.
Large trees (>76 cm breast-height diameter) are vital components of Sierra Nevada/Cascades mixed-conifer ecosystems because of their fire resistance, ability to sequester large amounts of carbon, and role as preferred habitat for sensitive species such as the California spotted owl. To investigate the likely performance of large trees in a rapidly changing climate, we analyzed growth rings of five conifer species against 20th century climate trends from local weather stations. Over the local station period of record, there were no temporal trends in precipitation, but maximum temperatures increased by 0.10 to 0.13 °C/decade (summer and autumn), and minimum temperatures increased by 0.11 to 0.19 °C/decade in all seasons. All species responded positively to precipitation, but more variation was explained by a significant positive response to minimum winter temperatures. High maximum summer temperature adversely affected growth of two species, and maximum spring temperatures in the year prior to ring formation were negatively associated with growth of one species. The strong coherent response to increasing minimum temperatures bodes well for growth of large trees in Sierra/Cascades region mixed conifer forest under continued climatic warming, but these trees will still be under threat by the increased fire intensity that is a indirect effect of warming.  相似文献   
485.
The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle. We use two AGCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM1-A at resolutions ranging from 270 to 60 km, and HadGEM3-A ranging from 135 to 25 km. The models exhibit a stable hydrological cycle, although too intense compared to reanalyses and observations. This over-intensity is explained by excess surface shortwave radiation, a common error in general circulation models (GCMs). This result is insensitive to resolution. However, as resolution is increased, precipitation decreases over the ocean and increases over the land. This is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land, which changes the partitioning of moisture fluxes that contribute to precipitation over land from less local to more non-local moisture sources. The results start to converge at 60-km resolution, which underlines the excessive reliance of the mean hydrological cycle on physical parametrization (local unresolved processes) versus model dynamics (large-scale resolved processes) in coarser HadGEM1 and HadGEM3 GCMs. This finding may be valid for other GCMs, showing the necessity to analyze other chains of GCMs that may become available in the future with such a range of horizontal resolutions. Our finding supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in model parametrization is one of the underlying causes of model disagreement in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises.  相似文献   
486.
Sustainable fisheries management into the future will require both understanding of and adaptation to climate change. A risk management approach is appropriate due to uncertainty in climate projections and the responses of target species. Management strategy evaluation (MSE) can underpin and support effective risk management. Climate change impacts are likely to differ by species and spatially. We use a spatial MSE applied to a multi-species data-poor sea cucumber/béche-de-mer fishery to demonstrate the utility of MSE to test the performance of alternative harvest strategies in meeting fishery objectives; this includes the ability to manage through climate variability and change, and meeting management objectives pertaining to resource status and fishery economic performance. The impacts of fishing relative to the impacts of climate change are distinguished by comparing future projection distributions relative to equivalent no-fishing no-climate-change trials. The 8 modelled species exhibit different responses to environmental variability and have different economic value. Status quo management would result in half the species falling below target levels, moderate risks of overall and local depletion, and significant changes in species composition. The three simple strategies with no monitoring (spatial rotation, closed areas, multi-species composition) were all successful in reducing these risks, but with fairly substantial decreases in the average profit. Higher profits (for the same risk levels) could only be achieved with strategies that included monitoring and hence adaptive management. Spatial management approaches based on adaptive feedback performed best overall.  相似文献   
487.
The probability of the occurrence of urban flash floods has increased appreciably in recent years. Scientists have published various articles related to the estimation of the vulnerability of people and vehicles in urban areas resulting from flash floods. However, most published works are based on research performed using numerical models and laboratory experiments. This paper presents a novel approach that combines the implementation of image velocimetry technique (large-scale particle image velocimetry—LSPIV) using a flash flood video recorded by the public locally and the estimation of the vulnerability of people and vehicles to high water velocities in urban areas. A numerical one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model has also been used in this approach for water velocity characterization. The results presented in this paper correspond to a flash flood resulting on November 29, 2012, in the city of Asunción in Paraguay. During this flash flood, people and vehicles were observed being carried away because of high water velocities. Various sequences of the recorded flash flood video were characterized using LSPIV. The results obtained in this work validate the existing vulnerability criterion based on the effect of the flash flood and resulting high water velocities on people and vehicles.  相似文献   
488.
Journal of Geographical Systems - This paper contributes to the existing literature on the explanation of housing prices. First, our proposed methodology accounts for cross-sectional dependence,...  相似文献   
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