Evaluation of Short-Range Forecasts from a Mesoscale Model Over the Indian Region During Monsoon 2006     

V. Rakesh  R. Singh  P. C. Joshi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(5):919-943

This study examines the short-range forecast accuracy of the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) as applied to the July 2006 episode of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the model's sensitivity to the choice of different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), namely Betts-Miller, Grell (GR) and Kain-Fritsch (KF). The results showed that MM5 day 1 (0–24 h prediction) and day 2 (24–48 h prediction) forecasts using all three CPSs overpredicted monsoon rainfall over the Indian landmass, with the larger overprediction seen in the day 2 forecasts. Among the CPSs, the rainfall distribution over the Indian landmass was better simulated in forecasts using the KF scheme. The KF scheme showed better skill in predicting the area of rainfall for most of the rainfall thresholds. The root mean square error (RMSE) in day 1 and day 2 rainfall forecasts using different CPSs showed that rainfall simulated using the KF scheme agreed better with the observed rainfall. As compared to other CPSs, simulation using the GR scheme showed larger RMSE in wind speed prediction at 850 and 200 hPa over the Indian landmass. MM5 24-h temperature forecasts at 850 hPa with all the CPSs showed a warm bias of the order of 1 K over the Indian landmass and the bias doubled in 48-h model forecasts. The mean error in temperature prediction at 850 hPa over the Indian region using the KF scheme was comparatively smaller for all the forecast intervals. The model with all the CPSs overpredicted humidity at 850 hPa. The improved prediction by MM5 with the KF scheme is well complemented by the smaller error shown by the KF scheme in vertical distribution of heat and mean moist static energy in the lower troposphere. In this study, the KF scheme which explicitly resolve the downdrafts in the cloud column tended to produce more realistic precipitation forecasts as compared to other schemes which did not explicitly incorporate downdraft effects. This is an important result especially given that the area covered by monsoon-precipitating systems is largely from stratiform-type clouds which are associated with strong downdrafts in the lower levels. This result is useful for improving the treatment of cumulus convection in numerical models over the ISM region.  相似文献   

Engineering geological rock mass classification of Punasa tunnel site,Khandwa District,Madhya Pradesh     

M. C. Gupta  B. K. Singh  K. N. Singh 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2011,77(3):269-272

Systematic rock mass characterization is an integral part of rock engineering practices. In the present scenario several classifications are in used for rock mass characterization for tunnelling. The present paper discusses engineering geological investigations carried out for Punasa tunnel, a part of Narmada Sagar project. The horse shoe shaped tunnel is 3675.25 m long and 9 m in diameter. This straight and free flow tunnel has been constructed in basaltic lava flows erupted during Cretaceous to Eocene age, belonging to poor to fair rock mass rating (RMR) and extremely poor to good in tunnel quality (Q-system). The values of RMR and Q-system ranges from 29 to 74 and 0.0825 to 13.33 respectively.  相似文献   

Implication of drainage basin parameters of Chhoti Gandak River,Ganga Plain,India     

Dhruv Sen Singh  Amit Awasthi 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2011,78(4):370-378

The drainage basin parameters of the groundwater-fed Chhoti Gandak River originating in the terai area of the Ganga Plain were analyzed using topographical sheets, satellite data, and field documentation with emphasis to its implication for flood mitigation and recharging of groundwater. The analyses indicate dominance of first order streams, gentle slope gradient, low surface run-off, low sediment production, high infiltration rate, and low value of basin relief. The low water storage capacity, spreading of water and concentration of peak discharge in the distal part of the river basin explain that whenever precipitation is high in the catchment area there is flood in the distal part of the basin. The bifurcation ratio value (4.34) of this basin describes that the drainage is carved naturally by slope and local relief and not influenced by geological structures like lineaments and faults.  相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility along NH-39 between Karong and Mao,Senapati district,Manipur     

C. D. Singh  K. K. Behera  W. S. Rocky 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2011,78(6):559-570

National Highway-39 is the only lifeline of the state of Manipur. The sector between Karong and Mao is highly landslide prone and frequently blocked the NH-39. The area is represented by Disang and Barail Groups of rock. Considering the importance of NH-39, landslide susceptibility zonation studies along NH-39 between Karong and Mao were carried out following GSI guideline, a modified form of BIS (1998).  相似文献   

Structural analyses of the crystalline rocks between Dirang and Tawang,West Kameng district,Arunachal Himalaya     

Hari B. Srivastava  Vaibhava Srivastava  Rajesh K. Srivastava  Chandra Kant Singh 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2011,78(1):45-56

In Kameng Valley of Arunachal Pradesh, the crystalline rocks of Se La Group of Higher Himalaya are thrust over the Lesser Himalayan rocks of Dirang Formation, Bomdila Group along the Main Central Thrust and exhibit well preserved structures on macro- to microscopic scales. Detailed analysis of structures reveals that the rocks of the area have suffered four phases of deformation D₁, D₂, D₃ and D₄. These structures have been grouped into (i) early structures (ii) structures related to progressive ductile thrusting and (iii) late structures. The early structures which developed before thrusting formed during D₁ and D₂ phases of deformation, synchronous to F₁ and F₂ phases of folding respectively. The structures related to progressive ductile shearing developed during D₃ phase of deformation, when the emplacement of the crystalline rocks took place over the rocks of Dirang Formation along the Main Central Thrust. Different asymmetric structures/kinematic indicators developed during this ductile/brittle-ductile regime suggest top-to-SSW sense of movement of the crystalline rocks of the area. D₄ is attributed to brittle deformation. Based on satellite data two new thrusts, i.e. Tawang and Se La thrusts have been identified parallel to Main Central Thrust, which are suggestive of imbricate thrusting. Strain analysis from the quartz grains of the gneissic rocks reveals constriction type of strain ellipsoid where k value is higher near the MCT, gradually decreases towards the north. Further, the dynamic analysis carried out on the mesoscopic ductile and brittle-ductile shear zones suggest a NNE-SSW horizontal compression corresponding to the direction of northward movement of Indian Plate.  相似文献   

Late pleistocene and early holocene climate of Ny-Alesund,Svalbard (Norway): A study based on biological proxies     

Vartika Singh  Anjum Farooqui  Naresh. C. Mehrotra  Dhruv Sen Singh  Rajni Tewari  Neerja Jha  Ratan Kar 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2011,78(2):109-116

Subsurface sediments of a 120 cm deep trench from Ny-Alesund, Svalbard, were analysed for pollenspores and other organic matter contents. This study is supported by two AMS ¹⁴C dates (27, 200 yrs BP and 8,762 yrs BP) at the bottom and topmost litho-unit of the trench, respectively. The pollen record provides an evidence of a warm interval at about 27,200 yr BP (Late Weichselian and MIS 3) and cooling episode around 8,762 yr BP. This is also supported by the amount and type of organic matter as well as sediment type and depositional history of the trench sediments.  相似文献   

Natural hazards in the Ghaghara River area, Ganga Plain, India     

Dhruv Sen Singh  Amit Awasthi 《Natural Hazards》2011,57(2):213-225

The Ganga Plain is one of the most densely populated regions of the world due to its fertile soil and availability of water. The rivers of this plain are the lifeline for millions of people of this vast alluvial plain. All rivers of this plain are characterized by narrow channel confined within wide valley. Continuously increasing pressure of population on this plain has led to the intensification of settlement even into the valley of the river. This unplanned expansion has enhanced the damage due to flooding during high-discharge period and lateral erosion during low-discharge period. Flooding and lateral erosion are identified as fluvial hazards in the Ghaghara River area. Extensive studies have been carried out on flooding, but not much attention has been paid to the phenomenon of lateral erosion. However, it has been observed that lateral erosion is an independent fluvial hazard that operates during low-discharge period. Low degree of compaction due to the presence of sandy and silty facies in the river valley deposits, mass movement, palaeocurrent pattern, and fractures initiates and enhances the lateral erosion. The present paper deals with the fluvial hazards in the Ghaghara River area.  相似文献   

Concealed thrusts in the Middle Gangetic plain,India – A ground penetrating radar study proves the truth against the geomorphic features supporting normal faulting     

Pitambar Pati  B. Parkash  A.K. Awasthi  Vivekanand Acharya  Satvindar Singh 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2011,40(1):315-325

As no evidence for thrusting has yet been reported from the Indo-Gangetic plain so, the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) has been considered to be the southern most limit of the Siwaliks to the Indo-Gangetic plain. The present study highlights the thrusting activities between the Gandak and Kosi megafan area in the Middle Gangetic plain. As these thrust sheets are concealed beneath thick sediment cover, direct surficial studies of the discontinuity planes are not possible. Further, the topographic breaks formed by the backward erosion of the uplifted thrust faces resemble normal faults with hanging walls to south. Due to gradual decreasing upliftment and/or erosion from north to south, the area shows a step like topographic appearance. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) studies reveal the concealed thrust planes beneath the sediments and the topographic breaks looking like normal faults are interpreted to be the relief created by backward erosion of the thrust sheets along with the overlying sediments. Out of four GPR profiles taken using 100 MHz antennae, three are across the topographic breaks along which most of the terminal fans are formed and one across the basement fault to study its subsurface nature. Initially GPR failed to strike any subsurface discontinuities at the topographic breaks. However, at certain distance to the south of the topographic breaks, GPR was able to strike the northerly dipping subsurface discontinuity planes. By combining the seismological signatures (distribution of earthquake epicenters) with geomorphology, these discontinuities are identified as thrusts. The GPR profiles show a gradual decrease of dip of the thrust planes from north to south across the area. Hence, by the geomorphology, seismological behavior, topography, orientation and continuity, other topographic breaks can be compared with the proven thrusts. GPR study on the basement fault revealed that the NE–SW trending basement faults are not active in the area. The compression between the South Muzaffarpur fault and the peninsular shield led to the generation of the N–S trending extensional Hathauri–Simariaghat fault with downthrown block towards east. Due to depth penetration limit, the GPR study was confined within 15 m depth. The presence of the discontinuity planes up to the base of the GPR profiles indicate their continuity at least up to the base of Holocene sediments. Although this study brought out the presence of concealed thrusts to the south of the HFT, more detailed work is needed further to study their depth extension, relation to the basement and their implication in Himalayan tectonics in a broad manner. At present, we consider these thrusts to be the splays of the HFT. For confirmation, we propose to carryout detail seismic surveys in future research work.  相似文献   

Variations in vapor pressure and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index since AD 1861 over the western Himalaya in India: inference from tree ring-width records     

Somaru Ram  H. N. Singh  Ramesh Kumar Yadav  Hamza Varikoden  S. S. Nandargi  Manoj K. Srivastava 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,140(1):157-166

A regional tree ring-width index chronology prepared from various tree core samples of the western Himalaya has been analyzed in relation to climate fluctuations. The correlation analysis of tree ring chronology shows significant positive correlations with regional rainfall and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and negative correlations with temperature and vapor pressure (VP) during the spring season. The correlation coefficients (CCs) of tree ring-width index chronology with rainfall, temperature, SPEI, and VP during 1901–1990 are 0.50, −0.49, 0.65, and −0.51, respectively. All CCs are significant at 0.1% level. The highly significant CCs between tree ring-width index chronology and SPEI indicate that tree growth over the western Himalaya is more sensitive to soil moisture availability than rainfall, whereas the rising VP is found to have a significant moisture stress condition to tree growth by accelerating the evapotranspiration, which is not conducive for the development of tree growth in the region. So, based on the strong association between tree ring-width index chronology and SPEI; the reconstructions of SPEI and VP are developed back to AD 1861, that show the long period of dryness during 1936–1963.  相似文献   

Combining climatological and participatory approaches for assessing changes in extreme climatic indices at regional scale     

Neha Mittal  Ashok Mishra  Rajendra Singh 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):603-615

This paper combines the climatological and societal perspectives for assessing future climatic extremes over Kangasabati River basin in India using an ensemble of four high resolution (25 km) regional climate model (RCM) simulations from 1970 to 2050. The relevant extreme indices and their thresholds are defined in consultation with stakeholders and are then compared using RCM simulations. To evaluate the performance of RCM in realistically representing atmospheric processes in the basin, model simulations driven with ERAInterim global re-analysis data from 1989 to 2008 are compared with observations. The models perform well in simulating seasonality, interannual variability and climatic extremes. Future climatic extremes are evaluated based on RCM simulations driven by GCMs, for present (1970–1999) and for the SRES A1B scenario for future (2021–2050) period. The analysis shows an intensification of majority of extremes as projected by future ensemble mean. The study suggests that there is a marked consistency in stakeholder observed changes in climate extremes and future predicted trends.  相似文献