Tellurium isotopic composition of the early solar system—A search for effects resulting from stellar nucleosynthesis, Sn decay, and mass-independent fractionation     

Manuela A. Fehr  Mark Rehkämper  Alex N. Halliday  Uwe Wiechert  Detlef Günther  Jennifer L. Eigenbrode  Douglas Rumble III 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(21):5099-5112

New precise Te isotope data acquired by multiple collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS) are presented for selected extraterrestrial and terrestrial materials. Bulk samples of carbonaceous, ordinary and enstatite chondrites as well as the metal and sulfide phases of iron meteorites were analyzed to search for nucleosynthetic isotope anomalies and to find evidence of formerly live ¹²⁶Sn, which decays to ¹²⁶Te with a half-life of 234,500 yr. None of the meteorites show evidence of mass dependent Te isotope fractionations larger than 2‰ for δ^126/128Te. Following internal normalization of the data to ¹²⁵Te/¹²⁸Te, the Te isotope ratios of all analyzed meteorites were found to be identical to a terrestrial standard, within uncertainties. This provides evidence that the regions of the solar disk that were sampled during accretion of the meteorite parent bodies were well mixed and homogeneous on a large scale, with respect to Te isotopes. The data acquired for bulk carbonaceous chondrites indicate that the initial ¹²⁶Sn/¹¹⁸Sn ratio of the solar system was <4 × 10⁻⁵, but this is dependent on the assumption that no redistribution of Sn and Te occurred since the start of the solar system. Five Archean sedimentary sulfides that display both mass dependent and mass-independent isotope effects for S yield internally normalized Te isotope data, which indicate that mass-independent Te isotope effects are absent. The mass dependent fractionations in these samples are constrained to be less than ∼1‰ for δ^126/128Te.  相似文献   

North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment   总被引：3，自引：9，他引：3  

D. B. Stephenson  V. Pavan  M. Collins  M. M. Junge  R. Quadrelli 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(4):401-420

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO₂, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5–10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970–1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO₂ concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061±0.0036 hPa per %CO₂. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO₂ represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models’ inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.  相似文献   

Acceleration Phase of Coronal Mass Ejections: II. Synchronization of the Energy Release in the Associated Flare     

Darije Maričić  Bojan Vršnak  Andrew L. Stanger  Astrid M. Veronig  Manuela Temmer  Dragan Roša 《Solar physics》2007,241(1):99-112

We analyze the relationship between the acceleration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the energy release in associated flares, employing a sample of 22 events in which the CME kinematics were measured from the pre-eruption stage up to the post-acceleration phase. The data show a distinct correlation between the duration of the acceleration phase and the duration of the associated soft X-ray (SXR) burst rise, whereas the CME peak acceleration and velocity are related to the SXR peak flux. In the majority of events the acceleration started earlier than the SXR burst, and it is usually prolonged after the SXR burst maximum. In about one half of the events the acceleration phase is very closely synchronized with the fastest growth of the SXR burst. An additional one quarter of the events may be still considered as relatively well-synchronized, whereas in the remaining quarter of the events there is a considerable mismatch. The results are interpreted in terms of the feedback relationship between the CME dynamics and the reconnection process in the wake of the CME.  相似文献   

First detection of glacial meltwater signature in tree‐ring δ18O: Reconstructing past major glacier runoff events at Lago Verde (Miage Glacier,Italy)     

Giovanni Leonelli  Manuela Pelfini  Giovanna Battipaglia  Matthias Saurer  Rolf T. W. Siegwolf  Paolo Cherubini 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(3):600-607

With the aim of evaluating the influence of glacial meltwater signature on tree‐ring stable isotopes, we analysed δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C in the tree rings of Larix decidua Mill. specimens growing in the area of an ice‐contact lake (Lago Verde, at Miage Glacier, European Alps). Additionally, we analysed δ¹⁸O in the glacial meltwater of the lake and of the glacier stream and compared it with the δ¹⁸O of precipitation predicted by a spatial model. We found that tree‐ring cellulose of trees fed by glacial meltwaters (LVW site) is significantly more depleted in δ¹⁸O than at a control site LVM (?0.91‰) fed only by precipitation, thus reflecting the measured higher depletion of glacial meltwaters with respect to local precipitation. δ¹³C values did not show significant differences in mean values between the two sites but an anomalous correlation with summer temperature was found at the LVW site, probably due to the different responses of trees stomatal conductance. Over the 30‐year period of analysis, four years at LVW (1992, 1995, 2003 and 2009) were markedly depleted in δ¹⁸O. These years are those when the highest summer temperatures were recorded in the area (the ones during which glacier ablation usually increases and more depleted meltwaters fill the lake), with the exception of 1995 during which high water levels occurred following the year with the second highest summer temperature (1994). Overall, our analysis demonstrates that tree‐ring δ¹⁸O, driven by the glacial meltwater signature in the lake, can be used for detecting past major glacier runoff events. The proposed approach could also be used for quantifying past glacier runoff and for defining past distribution areas of glacial meltwaters in glacier forefields, thus contributing to past environmental reconstructions and to hazard assessment.  相似文献   

Probabilistic SWE reanalysis as a generalization of deterministic SWE reconstruction techniques          下载免费PDF全文

Manuela Girotto  Steven A. Margulis  Michael Durand 《水文研究》2014,28(12):3875-3895

Snow accumulation and melt is highly variable in space and time in complex mountainous environments. Therefore, it is necessary to provide high‐resolution spatially and temporally distributed estimates of sub‐basin snow water equivalent (SWE) to accurately predict the timing and magnitude of snowmelt runoff. In this study, we compare two reconstruction techniques (a commonly used deterministic reconstruction vs a probabilistic data assimilation framework). The methods retrospectively estimate SWE from a time series of remotely sensed maps of fractional snow‐covered area (FSCA). In testing both methods over the Tokopah watershed in the Sierra Nevada (California), the probabilistic reconstruction approach is shown to be a more robust generalization of the deterministic reconstruction. Under idealized conditions, both probabilistic and deterministic approaches perform reasonably well and yield similar results when compared with in situ verification data, whereas the probabilistic reconstruction was found to be in slightly better agreement with snow‐pit observations. More importantly, the probabilistic approach was found to be more robust: unaccounted for biases in solar radiation impacted the probabilistic SWE estimates less than the deterministic case (4% vs 7% errors for water year (WY)1997 and 0% vs 3% errors for WY1999); the probabilistic reconstruction was found to be less sensitive to the number of available observations (6% vs 10% errors in WY1997 and 13% vs 44% errors in WY1999 from the nominal cases when four fewer FSCA images were available). Finally, results from the probabilistic reconstruction approach, which requires precipitation inputs (unlike the deterministic approach), were found to be relatively robust to bias in prior precipitation estimates, where the nominal case mean estimates were recovered even when an underestimated prior precipitation was used. The additional robustness of the probabilistic SWE reconstruction technique should prove useful in future applications over larger basins and longer periods in mountainous terrain. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Towards a cross-domain interoperable framework for natural hazards and disaster risk reduction information     

Robert Tomas  Matthew Harrison  José I. Barredo  Florian Thomas  Miguel Llorente Isidro  Manuela Pfeiffer  Otakar Čerba 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(3):1545-1563

  相似文献   

AffectRoute – considering people’s affective responses to environments for enhancing route-planning services     

Haosheng Huang  Silvia Klettner  Manuela Schmidt  Georg Gartner  Sven Leitinger  Andreas Wagner 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(12):2456-2473

Humans perceive and evaluate environments affectively. Some places are experienced as unsafe, while some others as attractive and interesting. These affective responses to environments influence people’s daily behavior and decision-making in space, e.g., choosing which route to take, or which place to visit. In this article, we report on a methodology of using people’s affective responses to environments for enhancing computer-based route planning. More specifically, we explore a crowdsourcing approach to model and collect people’s affective responses to environments; an Affect-Space-Model and a mobile application are developed to facilitate this crowdsourcing approach; a routing algorithm (named AffectRoute) is then proposed to aggregate and integrate the collected data for automatic route planning. Evaluation with human participants shows that the routes generated by considering people’s affective responses to environments are significantly preferred over the conventional shortest ones, which are employed in car navigation systems and many online route planners. In conclusion, considering people’s affective responses to environments contributes to the improvement of automatic route planning. The proposed method can be integrated into existing route-planning services (e.g., location-based services) to provide users with more satisfying routing results.  相似文献   

Least squares support vector machine for short-term prediction of meteorological time series   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

A. Mellit  A. Massi Pavan  M. Benghanem 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,111(1-2):297-307

The prediction of meteorological time series plays very important role in several fields. In this paper, an application of least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) for short-term prediction of meteorological time series (e.g. solar irradiation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction and pressure) is presented. In order to check the generalization capability of the LS-SVM approach, a K-fold cross-validation and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test have been carried out. A comparison between LS-SVM and different artificial neural network (ANN) architectures (recurrent neural network, multi-layered perceptron, radial basis function and probabilistic neural network) is presented and discussed. The comparison showed that the LS-SVM produced significantly better results than ANN architectures. It also indicates that LS-SVM provides promising results for short-term prediction of meteorological data.  相似文献   

Calibrated multi-model ensemble summer temperature predictions over Italy     

V. Pavan  F. J. Doblas-Reyes 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(7-8):2115-2132

A statistical calibration scheme is applied to multi-model global seasonal ensemble reforecasts in order to predict the interannual variability of summer averaged surface maximum temperature over Italy. In some cases, this technique is shown to be able to improve the skill scores of the seasonal predictions during the last 35 years, with respect to the direct model output (DMO), using seasonal predictions initialised 1 month before the beginning of the season. It is shown that the presence of some skill in the DMO multi-model predictions is mostly due to the correct prediction of the observed secular trends in maximum temperature, and, partly, to the correct prediction of outliers, in particular, of the summer of 2003. At the same time, while the removal of trends produces a small reduction of skill in both the raw and calibrated predictions, the removal of outliers improves the performance of the calibration scheme. Once all trends and outliers are removed, the DMO predictions have no skill, while the calibrated predictions still present a detectable skill. The improvement introduced by the calibration are shown to be statistically significant by applying resampling techniques. It is shown that the reason of this partial success is linked to the fact that although the models present several shortcomings, some models can capture the existence of a weak large-scale signal, possibly linked with the presence of a summer teleconnection between the equatorial Pacific and Europe, with a spatial pattern substantially different from that associated with the temperature secular trend. The teleconnection is associated with a modulation of the quasi-stationary barotropic eddies in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics.  相似文献   

Consistent estimation of geodetic parameters from SLR satellite constellation measurements     

Mathis Bloßfeld  Sergei Rudenko  Alexander Kehm  Natalia Panafidina  Horst Müller  Detlef Angermann  Urs Hugentobler  Manuela Seitz 《Journal of Geodesy》2018,92(9):1003-1021

In this paper, we consistently estimate geodetic parameters such as weekly 3-D station coordinates, Earth orientation parameters (EOP) including daily x/y-pole coordinates and the excess length of day \(\Delta \hbox {LOD}\), and selected weekly Earth’s gravitational field (Stokes) coefficients up to degree and order 6 from Satellite Laser Ranging measurements to up to 11 geodetic satellites. The SLR constellation consists of LAGEOS-1/2, Etalon-1/2, Stella, Starlette, Ajisai, Larets, LARES, BLITS and WESTPAC, and its observations cover a time span of 38 years ranging from February 16, 1979, to April 30, 2017. If multiple satellites with various altitudes and orbit inclinations are combined, correlations between estimated parameters are significantly reduced. This allows us (i) to investigate the ability of satellite constellations to reduce existing correlations and (ii) to estimate reliable parameters with higher precision compared to the standard 4-satellite constellation (LAGEOS-1/2, Etalon-1/2) which is currently used by the International Laser Ranging Service for the determination of the Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) and EOP products. In particular, the Stokes coefficients, EOP and TRF datum parameters (three translations, three rotations, one scale factor), which are highly correlated with satellite-specific orbit parameters, are improved. From our investigations, we found for an 11-satellite solution compared to the above-mentioned 4-satellite solution a decrease in the scatter of the TRF datum parameters of up to 37%, the transformation residuals are decreased by up to 22%, the scatter of the EOP is decreased by up to 22%, and their mean values are decreased by up to 84% w.r.t. the reference solutions. The largest improvement is obtained for the Stokes coefficients which significantly benefit from a combination of multiple satellites (inclinations and orbit altitudes). In total, single coefficients are improved by up to 93% and the overall improvement is up to 74%. Moreover, it could be clearly identified that Ajisai significantly disturbs the TRF solution due to an erroneous center-of-mass correction. We further quantify the impact of specific satellites on the determination of different geodetic parameters and finally evaluate the potential of the existing SLR-tracked spherical satellite constellation to support the goals of GGOS.  相似文献