Quality and reliable drought prediction is essential for mitigation strategies and planning in disaster-stricken regions globally. Prediction models such as empirical or data-driven models play a fundamental role in forecasting drought. However, selecting a suitable prediction model remains a challenge because of the lack of succinct information available on model performance. Therefore, this review evaluated the best model for drought forecasting and determined which differences if any were present in model performance using standardised precipitation index (SPI). In addition, the most effective combination of the SPI with its respective timescale and lead time was investigated. The effectiveness of data-driven models was analysed using meta-regression analysis by applying a linear mixed model to the coefficient of determination and the root mean square error of the validated model results. Wavelet-transformed neural networks had superior performance with the highest correlation and minimum error. Preprocessing data to eliminate non-stationarity performed substantially better than did the regular artificial neural network (ANN) model. Additionally, the best timescale to calculate the SPI was 24 and 12 months and a lead time of 1–3 months provided the most accurate forecasts. Studies from China and Sicily had the most variation based on geographical location as a random effect; while studies from India rendered consistent results overall. Variation in the result can be attributed to geographical differences, seasonal influence, incorporation of climate indices and author bias. Conclusively, this review recommends use of the wavelet-based ANN (WANN) model to forecast drought indices.
ABSTRACTBased on the experience of the International Society for Digital Earth (ISDE), this paper describes some challenges foreseen in order to develop a Digital Earth platform that can support the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. The use of ready-to-use derived geospatial information is essential. Future Earth’s methodology of ‘co-design’ aims to bring together natural, social scientists and decision makers to plan and carry out research for sustainability. Sustainability implies transdisciplinary research, but in order for scientists of different disciplines to work together, they will need to be able to share, access and use common data. This is by far not simple! While the good will to share data might exist, the associated technological, ethical and privacy issues are difficult to solve. An adequate e-infrastructure will be required. ISDE could consider to use the SDGs is the basis to develop the desired Digital Earth platform. This paper, by no means, covers everything for a Digital Earth platform, it aims to trigger research discussions and to have a good view about a starting point. 相似文献
Summary The comparison of the geomagneticK-indices for Mogadiscio with the correspondingKp for the whole earth, during the 2.nd Intern. Polar Year 1932–33, allows to deduce some features of the equatorial geomagnetic activity. Furthermore, evidence is adduced indicating that the geomagnetic disturbance at Mogadiscio is normal inH andD, while it appears slightly abnormal inZ.Communication presentée à l'Association Internationale de Magnétisme et Electricité Terrestres, IXe Assemblée Générale de l'UGGI, Bruxelles, Séance du 28 Août 1951. 相似文献
Riassunto Vengono documentate ed illustrate alcune correlazioni fra le alterazioni del moto di rotazione terrestre iniziatesi nel 1923 con gli eventi meteorologici; in particolare si discutono e si spiegano in tal modo le forti anomalie della pressione osservate a Genova nel periodo 1924–32.
Zusammenfassung Störungen in der Bewegung des Erdkörpers und Verschiebungen seiner Rotaktionsachse rufen Wirkungen hervor, welcke mit der Anpassung der Luftmassen an den neuen Bewegungen und an den neuen Lagen der Rotaktionsachse sich ausdrucken. Das führt zu Veränderungen der Luftströmungen, der Luftdruckverteilungen und daher der Grossewetterlagen. Einige meteorologischen Korrelationen dieser Art werden für die bedeutende Störung der Polarbewegung des 1923 gezeigt. Nachher werden damit besonders die starken Luftdruckanomalien erklärt, welche in Genua in der Periode 1924–32 beobachtet worden sind.
Riassunto Si espongono i risultati delle osservazioni sulle correnti telluriche eseguite a Mogadiscio nel 1933 con misure delle due componenti NS ed EW, traendone alcune deduzioni che permettono di precisarne le caratteristiche, specie nei confronti del relativo andamento diurno.
Summary The paper deals with the results of the earth-current-observations made at Mogadiscio during 1933. The analysis reveal elements for a new picture of the distribution of the earth-currents in the equatorial regions, particularly concerning the daily variation.
Zusammenfassung Die Ergebnisse des Erdstrom-Beobachtungen durchgeführt in einigen Monaten des Jahres 1933 in Modagiscio sind angegeben. Aus des Diskussion folgen einige Elemente die eine Neubearbeitung des Darstellung des Erdstrom-Verteilung in dem äquatorialem Gürtel nötig machen und dazu dienen werden sollen. besonders in Beziehung auf den täglichen Gang.
Riassunto Vengono esaminati due esempi di spostamento retrogrado di depressioni nel Mediterraneo, illustrandone le cause. Per uno di essi si calcolano gli elementi energetici, dimostrando come il rapportoK/P fra l'energia cinetica e quella potenziale della depressione costituisca un indice della sua capacità di proseguire il moto lungo la rotta precedente.
Summary Two examples of retrograde displacement of depressions in the Mediterranean are being examined, explaining their causes. For one of them the energetic elements are calculated showing how the ratioK/P between the kinetic and the potential energy of the depression constitutes an index of its capacity to continue the motion along the preceding course.
Zusammenfassung Es werden zwei Fälle rückläufiger Bewegungen, von Mittelmeerdepressionen untersucht und die Ursachen derselben erläutert. Für einen dieser Fälle werden die Grössen der Energie berechnet: und es wird gezeigt, dass das VerhältnisK/P zwischen kinetischer und potentieller Energie massgebend ist für die Fähigkeit der Depression, ihre Bewegung in der ursprünglichen Richtung fortzusetzen.
Riassunto Vengono esposti e discussi i risultati di alcune misure della suscetività magnetica di minerali magnetitiferi italiani. Fra
l'altro si dimostra l'impossibilità di una legge generale di interdipendenza fra i valori della suscettività ed il carattere
genetico dei giacimenti, indicando nuovi orientamenti per approfondire con successo simili indagini.
Summary The results of some measures of magnetic susceptibility of italian magnetic ores are reported and discussed. It is proved
the impossibility of a general relation between the magnitude of the susceptibility and the genetic character of the ores;
however, new views are pointed out to successfully deepen the results.
Zusammenfassung Die Ergebnisse einiger Suszeptibilit?ts-Messungen von ital. Magnetit-Mineralien verschiedener Genesis werden angegeben und
erl?utert. U. a. beweist man, dass ein allgemeine Gesetz für eine einfache Zusammenhang zwischen den Werte der Suszeptibilit?t
und die genetischen Eigentümlichkeiten der Lagerst?tten nicht bestehen kann. Neue Forschungsrichtungen dafür werden vorgeschlagen.
Riassunto Richiamate le condizioni pluviometriche medie cui è soggetta la regione milanese, vengono illustrati e discussi i risultati ottenuti nel biennio 1946–1947 per la distribuzione della pioggia nell'area cittadina, durante la primavera, l'estate e l'autunno. L'influenza alteratrice delle città in tale distribuzione appare evidente, particolarmente nella primavera.
Zusammenfassung Ausgehend von den mittleren Niederschlagsverhältnissen in der Region von Mailand, wird die Verteilung der Niederschläge im Frühjahr, Sommer und Herbst der Jahre 1946 und 1947 im Stadtareal von Mailand dargestellt und diskutiert. Der Einfluss der Stadt auf die Niederschlagsverteilung tritt deutlich in Erscheinung, besonders im Frühjahre.
La Nota I venne pubblicata a pag. 286 e seg. del Vol. XII (Fasc. 5–6), 1948, di questa Rivista. Le numerazioni delle citazioni bibliografiche e delle formole fanno seguito a quelle usate nella Nota I. 相似文献
Riassunto Si espongono ed illustrano i valori medi dei principali elementi meteorologici osservati a Moncalieri senza alcuna interruzione nell'ottantennio 1865–1945 e durante il quarantennio 1907–1946 per il vento. L'analisi delle medie quinquennali ed annuali pone in luce qualche caratteristica della variazione secolare dei medesimi fattori.
Zusammenfassung Die Mittelwerte der wichtigsten meteorologischen Elemente die in Moncalieri ohne Unterbrechung gesammelt worden sind, werden angegeben und zwar für den Zeitraum 1865–1945, ausgenommen für den Wind, deren Beobachtungen auf die Periode 1907–1946 sich beziehen. Die Gänge der fünfjährigen und jährlichen Mitteln zeigen einige Eigentümlichkeiten der sekularen Variation für denselben Elemente, die herausgehoben werden.