Seismic risk analysis with predictable models     

E. Grandori Guagenti  C. Molina  G. Mulas 《地震工程与结构动力学》1988,16(3):343-359

Recent studies show that, in some seismogenetic areas, strong earthquakes occur rather predictably. Their pattern of occurrence, however, cannot be interpreted according to a classic model of seismic risk analysis. It is shown that semi-Markov models are capable of interpreting predictable behaviour and, in particular, the types suggested by the Slip Predictable Model, the Time Predictable Model and the Characteristic Earthquake Model. A number of general properties are demonstrated, dealing with return periods, waiting times, damage cost, stationary and variable characteristics of seismic risk analysis. The case of Friuli is then examined and its semi-Markovian interpretation is discussed. This interpretation is compared with others which also are possible, and the consequences for the computation of hazard and risk terms are evaluated.  相似文献   

The Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary: sedimentology and micropalaeontology at El Mulato section, NE Mexico     

L. Alegret  I. Arenillas  J. A. Arz  C. Liesa  A. Meléndez  E. Molina  A. R. Soria  E. Thomas 《地学学报》2002,14(5):330-336

ABSTRACT In the El Mulato section (NE Mexico), the Upper Cretaceous marly Méndez and the Lower Palaeogene marly Velasco Formations are separated by a clastic unit. Benthic foraminifera from both marly formations indicate lower bathyal depths. The clastic unit, in contrast, contains platform sands, muddy pebbles and neritic (shallow) faunas mixed with microspherules, indicating that it was allochthonously deposited into the deep basin. The diversity and the variability in origin of the components in the clastic unit, and its sedimentological features, support a model of deposition by turbidity currents related to mass-wasting processes triggered by the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary impact. Planktic foraminifera were affected by a catastrophic extinction at the K/T boundary, whereas benthic foraminifera show reorganization of the community structure rather than significant extinction. The benthic faunal turnover may have resulted from the drop in primary productivity after the asteroid impact at the end of the Cretaceous.  相似文献   

Jurassic guyots on the Southern Iberian Continental Margin: a model of isolated carbonate platforms on volcanic submarine edifices     

J. A. Vera  J. M. Molina  P. Montero  & F. Bea 《地学学报》1997,9(4):163-166

During the middle Jurassic on the Southern Iberian Continental Margin (at the westernmost end of the northern Tethys) isolated carbonate platforms developed over volcanic edifices, forming guyots. The volcanic edifices were composed of K-rich pillow-lavas and pyroclastic rocks with a radiometric age ≈ 170 Myr. Such phenomena have not been described until now in this continental margin nor in other passive continental margins of Alpine domains. The presence of a shallowing-upward megasequence (Bajocian–Bathonian) with hummocky cross- stratification strata below oolitic shoals, shows that very shallow isolated carbonate platforms developed above the volcanic edifices, with similar facies to those recognized in other guyots, but with a different age and geodynamic context.  相似文献   

Petrology,phase equilibria modelling,noble gas chronology and thermal constraints of the El Pozo L5 meteorite     

Pedro Corona-Chávez  María del Sol Hernández-Bernal  Pietro Vignola  Rufino Lozano-Santacruz  Juan Julio Morales-Contreras  Margarita Reyes-Salas  Jesús Solé-Viñas  José F. Molina 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2018,78(2):248-253

We present the results of physical properties, petrography, bulk chemistry, mineral compositions, phase relations modelling and Noble gases study of the meteorite El Pozo. The petrography and mineral compositions indicate that the meteorite is an L5 chondrite with a low shock stage of S2-S3. Heterogenous weathering was preferentially along shock structures. Thermobarometric calculations indicate thermal equilibrium conditions between 768?°C and 925?°C at ～4 to 6?kb, which are substantially consistent with the petrological metamorphism type 5. A pseudosection phase diagram is relatively consistent with the mineral assemblage observed and PT conditions calculated. Temperature vs. fO₂ diagram shows that plagioclase compositional stability is very sensitive to Tschermack substitution in orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene and X_An plagioclase during the high temperature metamorphic process. Based on noble gases He, Ne, Ar and K contents a cosmogenic exposure age CRE of 1.9?Myr was calculated. The ²¹Ne would be totally cosmogenic, with no primordial Ne. The ²¹Ne/²²Ne value (0.97) is higher than solar value. According to the cosmogenic Ne content, we argue that El Pozo chondrite originally had a pre-atmospheric mass of 9–10?kg, which would have been produced by a later collision after the recognized collision of the L-chondrite parent body ～470?Ma ago.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Groundwater quality assessment using data clustering based on hybrid Bayesian networks     

Pedro A. Aguilera  Antonio Fernández  Rosa F. Ropero  Luís Molina 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(8):2027-2027

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A first approach to earthquake damage estimation in Haiti: advices to minimize the seismic risk     

Y. Torres  S. Molina  S. Martínez-Cuevas  M. Navarro  J. J. Martínez-Díaz  B. Benito  J. J. Galiana-Merino  D. Belizaire 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(1):39-58

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Environmental factors controlling spatial variation in sediment yield in a central Andean mountain area     

Armando Molina  Gerard Govers  Jean Poesen  Hendrik Van Hemelryck  Bert De Bivre  Veerle Vanacker 《Geomorphology》2008,98(3-4):176

A large spatial variability in sediment yield was observed from small streams in the Ecuadorian Andes. The objective of this study was to analyze the environmental factors controlling these variations in sediment yield in the Paute basin, Ecuador. Sediment yield data were calculated based on sediment volumes accumulated behind checkdams for 37 small catchments. Mean annual specific sediment yield (SSY) shows a large spatial variability and ranges between 26 and 15,100 Mg km^− 2 year^− 1. Mean vegetation cover (C, fraction) in the catchment, i.e. the plant cover at or near the surface, exerts a first order control on sediment yield. The fractional vegetation cover alone explains 57% of the observed variance in ln(SSY). The negative exponential relation (SSY = a × e^{−b C}) which was found between vegetation cover and sediment yield at the catchment scale (10³–10⁹ m²), is very similar to the equations derived from splash, interrill and rill erosion experiments at the plot scale (1–10³ m²). This affirms the general character of an exponential decrease of sediment yield with increasing vegetation cover at a wide range of spatial scales, provided the distribution of cover can be considered to be essentially random. Lithology also significantly affects the sediment yield, and explains an additional 23% of the observed variance in ln(SSY). Based on these two catchment parameters, a multiple regression model was built. This empirical regression model already explains more than 75% of the total variance in the mean annual sediment yield. These results highlight the large potential of revegetation programs for controlling sediment yield. They show that a slight increase in the overall fractional vegetation cover of degraded land is likely to have a large effect on sediment production and delivery. Moreover, they point to the importance of detailed surface vegetation data for predicting and modeling sediment production rates.  相似文献   

Experimental investigation on a base isolation system incorporating steel–Teflon sliders and pressurized fluid viscous spring dampers     

Stefano Sorace  Gloria Terenzi  Georges Magonette  Francisco J. Molina 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(2):225-242

An experimental investigation on a base isolation system incorporating stainless steel–Teflon bearings as sliders, and pressurized fluid viscous spring dampers, is presented in this paper. In the system examined, dampers are connected to the base floor of an isolated building to provide the desired passive control of response in the superstructure, as well as to guarantee that it re‐centres completely after the termination of a seismic action. Two types of experiments were conducted: sinusoidal and random cyclic tests, and a pseudodynamic test in ‘substructured’ configuration. The cyclic tests were aimed at characterizing what follows: the hysteretic and strain‐rate‐dependent response of the considered highly non‐linear spring dampers; the normal pressure‐ and strain‐rate‐dependent frictional behaviour of steel–Teflon bearings, manufactured in compliance with the latest standards for this class of sliders; and the combined response of their assembly. The pseudodynamic test simulated the installation of the protection system at the base of a 2:3‐scale three‐storey steel frame structure, already tested in unprotected conditions by an earlier experimental campaign. Among other findings, the results of the performed tests, as well as of relevant mechanical interpretation and numerical simulation analyses, confirmed the linear additive combination of the dissipative actions of spring dampers and sliders in this mixed installation, and the high protective performance of the considered base isolation/supplemental damping system in a realistic earthquake simulation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Degassing patterns of Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) during the 1999–2006 eruptive period,inferred from remote spectroscopic measurements of SO₂ emissions     

S.R. Arellano  M. Hall  P. Samaniego  J.-L. Le Pennec  A. Ruiz  I. Molina  H. Yepes 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

This paper presents the results of 7 years (Aug. 1999–Oct. 2006) of SO₂ gas measurements during the ongoing eruption of Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. From 2004 onwards, the operation of scanning spectrometers has furnished high temporal resolution measurements of SO₂ flux, enabling this dataset to be correlated with other datasets, including seismicity. The emission rate of SO₂ during this period ranges from less than 100 to 35,000 tonnes/day (t d^− 1) with a mean daily emission rate of 1458 t d^− 1 and a standard deviation of ± 2026 t d^− 1. Average daily emissions during inferred explosive phases are about 1.75 times greater than during passive degassing intervals. The total amount of sulfur emitted since 1999 is estimated as at least 1.91 Mt, mostly injected into the troposphere and carried westwards from the volcano. Our observations suggest that the rate of passive degassing at Tungurahua requires SO₂ exsolution of an andesitic magma volume that is two orders of magnitude larger than expected for the amount of erupted magma. Two possible, and not mutually exclusive, mechanisms are considered here to explain this excess degassing: gas flow through a permeable stagnant-magma-filled conduit and gas escape from convective magma overturning in the conduit. We have found that real-time gas monitoring contributes significantly to better eruption forecasting at Tungurahua, because it has provided improved understanding of underlying physical mechanisms of magma ascent and eruption.  相似文献   

Nutrient distributions over the Southwestern South Atlantic continental shelf from Mar del Plata (Argentina) to Itajaí (Brazil): Winter–summer aspects     

Elisabete S. Braga  Vitor C. Chiozzini  Gláucia B.B. Berbel  João C.C. Maluf  Valquíria M.C. Aguiar  Marcela Charo  Daniel Molina  Sílvia I. Romero  Beatriz B. Eichler 《Continental Shelf Research》2008

Nutrient distributions observed at some depths along the continental shelf from 27°05′S (Brazil) to 39°31′S (Argentina) in winter, 2003 and summer, 2004 related to salinity and dissolved oxygen (mL L⁻¹) and saturation (%) data showed remarkable influences of fresh water discharge over the coastal region and in front of the La Plata estuary. In the southern portion of the study area different processes were verified. Upwelling processes caused by ocean dynamics typical of shelf break areas, eddies related to surface dynamics and regeneration processes confirmed by the increase of nutrients and the decrease of dissolved and saturation oxygen data were verified. High silicate concentrations in the surface waters were identified related to low salinities (minimum of 21.22 in winter and 21.96 in summer), confirming the importance of freshwater inputs in this region, especially in winter. Silicate concentration range showed values between 0.00 and 83.52 μM during winter and from 0.00 to 41.16 μM during summer. Phosphate concentrations worked as a secondary trace of terrestrial input and their values varied from 0.00 to 3.30 μM in winter and from 0.03 to 2.26 μM in summer; however, in shallow waters, phosphate indicated more clearly the fresh water influence. The most important information given by nitrate concentrations was the presence of water from SACW upwelling that represents a new source of nutrients for marine primary production. Nitrate maximum values reached 41.96 μM in winter and 33.10 μM in summer. At a depth ∼800 m, high nitrate, phosphate and silicate concentrations were related to Malvinas Current Waters, Subantarctic Shallow Waters and Antarctic Atlantic Intermediate Waters (AAIW). Dissolved oxygen varied from 3.41 to 7.06 mL L⁻¹ in winter and from 2.65 to 6.85 mL L⁻¹ in summer. The percentage of dissolved oxygen saturation in the waters showed values between 48% and 113% in winter and from 46% to135% in summer. The most important primary production was verified in the summer, and situations of undersaturation were mainly observed below 50 m depth and at some points near the coast. The anti-correlation between nutrients and dissolved oxygen which showed evident undersaturation also revealed important potential sites of remineralization processes. The nutrient behaviours showed some aspects of the processes that occur over the Southwestern South Atlantic continental shelf and in their land–sea interfaces between Mar del Plata and Itajaí.  相似文献