Rainfall–runoff model parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation on small plots          下载免费PDF全文

Keewook Kim  Gene Whelan  S. Thomas Purucker  Thomas F. Bohrmann  Michael J. Cyterski  Marirosa Molina  Yin Gu  Yakov Pachepsky  Andrey Guber  Dorcas H. Franklin 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5220-5235

Four seasonal rainfall simulations in 2009 and 2010 were applied to a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 runoff events. In all simulations, a constant rate of rainfall was applied then halted 60 min after initiation of runoff, with plot‐scale monitoring of runoff every 5 min during that period. Runoff was simulated with the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion/Simulator of Transport with Infiltration and Runoff (KINEROS2/STWIR) field‐scale model, whose hydrodynamics are based on the kinematic wave equation. Because of the non‐linear nature of the model and a highly parameterized model with respect to the available data, several approaches were investigated to upscale nine runoff‐related parameters from a series of small monitored plots to the field scale. Inverse modeling was performed using the model‐independent Parameter ESTimation (PEST) algorithm to individually calibrate the nine KINEROS2/STWIR parameters on 36 plots. The parameters were averaged, and bootstrapping was used to assess uncertainty of the parameters via estimation of confidence intervals (CI). A Monte Carlo simulation using the bootstrap results showed reasonable field‐scale representation of flow rates. Median values of calibrated parameters were within the 95% CI obtained with bootstrapping. The simulated results for the median values associated with the 90% CI flow rates produced similar trends as those exhibited with the observed data, suggesting that median values of the calibrated parameters from the PEST inverse modeling could be used to represent the field scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Weathering processes in waste materials from a mining area in a semiarid zone     

Cortes Navarro-Hervás  Carmen Pérez-Sirvent  María José Martínez-Sánchez  Mari Luz García-Lorenzo  José Molina 《Applied Geochemistry》2012

Chemical and mineralogical characterization of waste materials present in an abandoned Pb, Zn–Ag mining site (SE, Spain) was carried out. In unaltered rocks, the mineralogy is characterized by plagioclase, pyroxene, magnetite, ilmenite, amphibole, biotite and quartz. Trace-element contents of these samples represent unaltered values. In mine-waste materials, pH ranged from acidic to slightly acidic and trace-element content was generally high, especially for Pb and Zn, although there were also substantial As concentrations. X-ray diffraction results suggested that these samples have a complex mineralogy, including alteration products. Surficial materials in the study area were affected by weathering processes, generating supergene assemblages, including Fe and Mn oxides and hydroxides, carbonates, hydrated sulfates and jarosite. Knowledge of the geochemical processes that took place in the past and which are still taking place provide an important tool for assessing associated environmental problems in this area.  相似文献   

Methodology to evaluate the renewal period of carbonate aquifers: a key tool for their management in arid and semiarid regions,with the example of Becerrero aquifer,Spain   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Sergio Martos-Rosillo  Carlos Marín-Lechado  Antonio Pedrera  Iñaki Vadillo  Jacek Motyka  José Luis Molina  Pilar Ortiz  José María Martín Ramírez 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(3):679-689

A methodological procedure is proposed for determining the renewal period (RP), which expresses the ratio of total storage to recharge of carbonate aquifers, and it was applied to the overexploited moderate-size Becerrero carbonate aquifer (southern Spain). To this end, geological and subsurface data—time domain electromagnetic (TEM) soundings and borehole logs—were integrated to construct a three-dimensional (3D) geological model of the aquifer. The interconnected porosity was estimated by analyzing 73 rock samples. The resulting 3D geometrical model makes it possible to quantify the fractions of the aquifer having a confined or unconfined behaviour. Based on the total storage capacity (179?·?10⁶–514?·?10⁶ m³) and available aquifer recharge estimation (4.8?·?10⁶–6.4?·?10⁶ m³/year), an RP between 37 and 106 years is obtained. In view of the RP, an exploitation rate slightly lower than the average recharge of the system is recommended, so that the piezometric level will be stable but below the discharge head that is produced through the springs in natural conditions. The proposed methodology to obtain an aquifer RP and the management strategies designed accordingly are of broad interest, especially for carbonate aquifers, which are abundant in arid and semiarid regions.  相似文献   

An unexpected outburst from A0535+262     

A. B. Hill  A. J. Bird  A. J. Dean  V. A. McBride  V. Sguera †  D. J. Clark  M. Molina  S. Scaringi  S. E. Shaw 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,381(3):1275-1279

A0535+262 is a transient Be/X-ray binary system which was in a quiescent phase from 1994 to 2005. In this paper we report on the timing and spectral properties of the INTEGRAL detection of the source in 2003 October. The source is detected for ∼6000 s in the 18–100 keV energy band at a luminosity of  ∼3.8 × 10³⁵ erg s⁻¹  ; this is compatible with the high end of the range of luminosities expected for quiescent emission. The system is observed to be outside of the centrifugal inhibition regime and pulsations are detected with periodicity,   P = 103.7 ± 0.1 s  . An examination of the pulse history of the source shows that it had been in a constant state of spin-down since it entered the quiescent phase in 1994. The rate of spin-down implies the consistent presence of an accretion disc supplying torques to the pulsar. The observations show that the system is still active and highly variable even in the absence of recent Type I or Type II X-ray outbursts.  相似文献   

Paleoclimate implications of high latitude precession-scale mineralogic fluctuations during early Oligocene Antarctic glaciation: the Great Australian Bight record     

David J. Mallinson  Benjamin Flower  Albert Hine  Gregg Brooks  Roberto Molina Garza   《Global and Planetary Change》2003,39(3-4):257-269

Sediments from ODP Site 1128 in the Great Australian Bight record isotopic and mineralogic variations corresponding to orbital parameters and regional climate change during the early Oligocene climate transition and Oi1 glacial event. Bulk carbonate stable isotope analyses reveal prominent positive oxygen and carbon isotope shifts related to the inferred major increase in glaciation at approximately 33.6 to 33.48 Ma. The oxygen isotope excursion corresponds to a prolonged period of low eccentricity, suggesting ice-sheet growth during low seasonality conditions. The clay mineralogy is dominated by smectite throughout. The exclusive occurrence of highly crystalline smectite from 33.6 to 33.5 Ma suggests the occurrence of explosive volcanism that correlates with the positive oxygen isotope shift. The dominance of mixed-layer smectite from 33.5 to 33.4 Ma and an increase in illite following 33.4 Ma indicates a transition from cool, wet conditions to cool, dry conditions over Australia during the Oi1 glaciation. Clay mineralogy and carbonate percentages reveal precession-scale oscillations during the Oi1 event. Kaolinite varies inversely with smectite and percent carbonate. Variations in precipitation and runoff, and wind velocities during southern hemisphere summer perihelion and high eccentricity intervals may account for the precession-scale oscillations.  相似文献   

Artificial neural networks and geostatistical models for housing valuations in urban residential areas     

M. Carmen Morillo Balsera  Sandra Martínez-Cuevas  Iñigo Molina Sánchez  César García-Aranda  M. Estibaliz Martinez Izquierdo 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(2):184-193

Property valuation studies often use classical statistics techniques. Among these techniques, the Artificial Neural Networks are the most applied, overcoming the inflexibility and the linearity of the hedonic models. Other researchers have used Geostatistics techniques, specifically the Kriging Method, for interpreting spatial-temporal variability and to predict housing unit prices. The innovation of this study is to highlight how the Kriging Method can help to better understand the urban environment, improving the results obtained by classical statistics. This study presents two different methods that share the general objective of extracting information regarding a city’s housing from datasets. The procedures applied are Ordinary Kriging (Geostatistics) and Multi-Layer Perceptron algorithm (Artificial Neural Networks). These methods were used to predict housing unit prices in the municipality of Pozuelo de Alarcon (Madrid). The implementation of both methods provides us with the urban characteristics of the study area and the most significant variables related to price. The main conclusion is that the Ordinary Kriging models and the Neural Networks models, applied to predicting housing unit prices are necessary methodologies to improve the information obtained in classical statistical techniques.

Abbreviations: ANN: Artificial Neural Networks; OK: ordinary Kriging; MLP: multi-layer perceptron  相似文献   

Using the damage from 2010 Haiti earthquake for calibrating vulnerability models of typical structures in Port-au-Prince (Haiti)     

S. Molina  Y. Torres  B. Benito  M. Navarro  D. Belizaire 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(4):1459-1478

After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, that hits the city of Port-au-Prince, capital city of Haiti, a multidisciplinary working group of specialists (seismologist, geologists, engineers and architects) from different Spanish Universities and also from Haiti, joined effort under the SISMO-HAITI project (financed by the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid), with an objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. In this paper, as a first step for a structural damage estimation of future earthquakes in the country, a calibration of damage functions has been carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. After compiling a database with observed damage in the city after the earthquake, the exposure model (building stock) has been classified and through an iteratively two-step calibration process, a specific set of damage functions for the country has been proposed. Additionally, Next Generation Attenuation Models (NGA) and \(\hbox {Vs}^{30}\) models have been analysed to choose the most appropriate for the seismic risk estimation in the city. Finally in a next paper, these functions will be used to estimate a seismic risk scenario for a future earthquake.  相似文献   

An intermediate black hole spin in the NLS1 galaxy SWIFT J2127.4+5654: chaotic accretion or spin energy extraction?     

G. Miniutti  F. Panessa  A. De Rosa  A. C. Fabian  A. Malizia  M. Molina  J. M. Miller  S. Vaughan 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(1):255-262

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Base isolation for retrofitting historic buildings: Evaluation of seismic performance through experimental investigation     

Antonello De Luca  Elena Mele  Javier Molina  Guido Verzeletti  Artur V. Pinto 《地震工程与结构动力学》2001,30(8):1125-1145

An experimental test program on a full‐scale model representing a sub‐assemblage of the cloister facade of the Sao Vicente de Fora monastery, retrofitted through base isolation, has been recently carried out at the European Laboratory for Structural Assessment of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. In this paper an overview of the laboratory model and the experimental results is provided. In particular, firstly the test model is described, including the geometry and mechanical properties of the masonry specimen and the design of the isolation devices; then the testing method and the sub‐structuring of the isolation system are described and the seismic inputs adopted for the pseudo‐dynamic tests are defined. Finally, the experimental results are discussed and compared to the analogous results obtained on the ‘as is’, fixed‐base sub‐assemblage model. The implications of the test outcomes are emphasized and developments of this research line are presented. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A New Methodology for Decreasing Uncertainties in the Seismic Hazard Assessment Results by Using Sensitivity Analysis. An Application to Sites in Eastern Spain     

J. J. Giner  S. Molina  P. Jáuregui  J. Delgado 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(6):1271-1288

v--vIn this study a sensitivity analysis has been carried out by means of the seismic hazard results obtained using the non-zoning methodology (Epstein and Lomnitz, 1966) and the extreme value distribution functions proposed by Gumbel (1958), via a logic tree procedure. The aim of the sensitivity analysis is to identify the input parameters that have the largest impact on assessed hazard and its uncertainty. The research findings from the study of these parameters can serve as a useful guide to facilitate further research studies on seismic hazard evaluations because it allows us to identify parameters that have little or no effect on the seismic hazard results as well as parameters that have great effects on them. In this way, using the obtained results, we have proposed objective criteria in assigning probabilities to the different logic tree branches in a more objective way. It should be noted that, although the sensitivity of the logic tree branches depends on the site, it does not always do so in the same way. Finally, re-evaluation of seismic hazard using the proposed methodology applied to eastern Spain leads to a reduction of uncertainty from 52% to 27% of the expected acceleration with 10% probability of exceedence, at the site with the highest value of seismic hazard (Site 1: Torrevieja).  相似文献