GCM Hindcasts of SST Forced Climate Variability over Agriculturally Intensive Regions     

Leonard M. Druyan  Kathryn P. Shah  Mark A. Chandler  David Rind 《Climatic change》2000,45(2):279-322

The NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climatemodel is forced with globally observed sea-surfacetemperatures (SST) in five simulations, 1969–1991,with individual runs beginning from altered initialatmospheric conditions. The interannual variability ofmodeled anomalies of the Southern Oscillation Index,mid-tropospheric temperatures, 850 mb zonal winds andOutgoing Longwave Radiation over the tropical PacificOcean, which has the largest SST anomaly forcing, arestrongly correlated with observed trends which reflectENSO cycles. The model's rainfall variability overthree agriculturally intensive regions, two tropicaland one mid-latitude, is investigated in order toevaluate the potential usefulness of GCM predictionsfor agricultural planning. The correct sign ofZimbabwe seasonal precipitation anomalies was hindcastwithin a useful range of consensus only for selectseasons corresponding to extreme ENSO events for whichanomalous circulation patterns were ratherrealistically simulated. The correlation betweenhindcasts of Nordeste monthly precipitation andobservations increases with time smoothing, reaching0.64 for 5-month running means. Consensus betweenindividual runs is directly proportional to theabsolute value of Niño3 SST so that during ElNiño and La Niña years most simulations agreeon the sign of predicted Nordeste rainfall anomalies.We show that during selected seasons the uppertropospheric divergent circulation and near surfacemeridional displacements of the ITCZ are realisticallyrepresented by the ensemble mean of the simulations.This realistic simulation of both the synopticmechanisms and the resulting precipitation changesincreases confidence in the GCM's potential forseasonal climate prediction.  相似文献   

Simulation of Regional Ground Water Flow and Salt Water Intrusion in Hernando County, Florida   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Varut Guvanasen  Shirley C. Wade  Mark D. Barcelo 《Ground water》2000,38(5):772-783

  相似文献   

Local and regional variations in Central American arc lavas controlled by variations in subducted sediment input   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Lina C. Patino  Michael J. Carr  Mark D. Feigenson 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2000,138(3):265-283

The sedimentary section (at DSDP Site 495) on the subducting Cocos Plate has large stratigraphic changes in incompatible elements and element ratios, the result of early carbonate deposition followed by late hemipelagic deposition. Lavas from Central America define both local and regional geochemical trends that reflect the strong influence of the two Cocos Plate sediment units. Element ratios with large stratigraphic variations on the Cocos Plate (e.g. Ba/Th, U/La) define local variations within individual volcanic centers in Central America, indicating that marine stratigraphy controls some geochemical characteristics of the lavas. These local trends can be explained by changing the proportions of hemipelagic sediment input into the magma generation process. These local trends are observed in all the segments of the arc, regardless of the intensity of the slab signature. Regional variations are most clearly seen in element ratios that are nearly constant through the Cocos Plate sediment stratigraphy (e.g. Ba/La, U/Th), suggesting that regional variations reflect differences in the intensity of the flux from the subducting slab. The slab signal is strongest in Nicaragua and along the volcanic front. The signal decreases to the northwest and southeast of Nicaragua and toward the back arc. The large slab signature in the lavas from western Nicaragua occurs in the area with the thinnest continental crust and steepest dip of the slab. The mass flux of incompatible elements into the system is easily estimated, except for elements, like Pb, that have high and variable abundances in the basaltic oceanic crust section. The mass flux of elements out of the system depends on eruption rates, which are variable along the arc and only approximately known. Comparison of input and output fluxes for five different segments of the arc reveals that some elements (K, B, Cs, and Rb) are very efficiently delivered to the volcanoes from the subducted slab. Other elements (Sr, Ba, and U) are returned to the surface with moderate efficiency, whereas some elements (REEs) may come mostly from the mantle wedge with minor slab contribution. The relative order of recycling efficiencies of incompatible elements implies that a hydrous fluid dominates the transfer of material from the slab to mantle. Received: 7 September 1998 / Accepted: 30 September 1999  相似文献   

The origin of Himalayan anatexis and inverted metamorphism: Models and constraints   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

T. Mark Harrison  Marty Grove  Oscar M. Lovera  E. J. Catlos  Jessica D&#x;Andrea 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》1999,17(5-6)

The key to comprehending the tectonic evolution of the Himalaya is to understand the relationships between large-scale faulting, anatexis, and inverted metamorphism. The great number and variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain some or all of these features reflects the fact that fundamental constraints on such models have been slow in coming. Recent developments, most notably in geophysical imaging and geochronology, have been key to coalescing the results of varied Himalayan investigations into constraints with which to test proposed evolutionary models. These models fall into four general types: (1) the inverted metamorphic sequences within the footwall of the Himalayan thrust and adjacent hanging wall anatexis are spatially and temporally related by thrusting; (2) thrusting results from anatexis; (3) anatexis results from normal faulting; and (4) apparent inverted metamorphism in the footwall of the Himalayan thrust is produced by underplating of right-way-up metamorphic sequences. We review a number of models and find that many are inconsistent with available constraints, most notably the recognition that the exposed crustal melts and inverted metamorphic sequences not temporally related. The generalization that appears to best explain the observed distribution of crustal melts and inverted metamorphic sequences is that, due to specific petrological and tectonic controls, episodic magmatism and out-of-sequence thrusting developed during continuous convergence juxtaposing allochthonous igneous and metamorphic rocks. This coincidental juxtaposition has proven to be something of a red herring, unduly influencing attention toward finding a causal relationship between anatexis and inverted metamorphism.  相似文献   

The Comet Nucleus Tour (Contour); A NASA Discovery Mission     

Cochran  Anita  Veverka  Joseph  Bell  James  Belton  Michael  Benkhoff  Johannes  Benkhoff  Andrew  Clark  Benton  Feldman  Paul  Kissel  Jochen  Mahaffy  Paul  Malin  Michael  Murchie  Scott  Neimann  Hasso  Owen  Tobias  Robinson  Mark  Schwehm  Gerhard  Squyres  Steve  Thomas  Peter  Whipple  Fred  Yeomans  Donald 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2000,89(1-4):289-300

In 1997, the COmet Nucleus TOUR (CONTOUR) was selected byNASA for a new start as part of the Discovery line. In this paper, we review the status of the mission, the mission timeline and the instruments to be flown. Detail is given of the science goals and how they are to be accomplished.  相似文献   

Detection of the optical counterpart of the proposed double degenerate polar RX J1914+24     

Gavin Ramsay  Mark Cropper  Kinwah Wu  K. O. Mason  Pasi Hakala 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,311(1):75-84

We have detected the optical counterpart of the proposed double degenerate polar RX J1914+24. The I -band light curve is modulated on the 9.5-min period seen in X-rays. There is no evidence for any other periods. No significant modulation is seen in J . The infrared colours of RX J1914+24 are not consistent with a main-sequence dwarf secondary star. Our ASCA spectrum of RX J1914+24 is typical of a heavily absorbed polar and our ASCA light curve also shows only the 9.5-min period. We find that the folded I band and X-ray light curves are out of phase. We attribute the I -band flux to the irradiated face of the donor star. The long-term X-ray light curve shows a variation in the observed flux of up to an order of magnitude. These observations strengthen the view that RX J1914+24 is indeed the first double degenerate polar to be detected. In this light, we discuss the synchronizing mechanisms in such a close binary and other system parameters.  相似文献   

Magnetic properties of hydrothermally synthesized greigite (Fe₃ S₄ )—II. High- and low-temperature characteristics     

Mark J. Dekkers  Hilde F. Passier  & Martin A. A. Schoonen 《Geophysical Journal International》2000,141(3):809-819

The magnetic behaviour of hydrothermally synthesized greigite was analysed in the temperature range from 4 K to 700 °C. Below room temperature, hysteresis parameters were determined as a function of temperature, with emphasis on the temperature range below 50 K. Saturation magnetization and initial susceptibility were studied above room temperature, along with X-ray diffraction analysis of material heated to various temperatures. The magnetic behaviour of synthetic greigite on heating is determined by chemical alteration rather than by magnetic unblocking. Heating in air yields more discriminative behaviour than heating in argon. When heated in air, the amount of oxygen available for reaction with greigite determines the products and magnetic behaviour. In systems open to contact with air, haematite is the final reaction product. When the contact with air is restricted, magnetite is the final reaction product. When air is excluded, pyrrhotite and magnetite are the final reaction products; the amount of magnetite formed is determined by the purity of the starting greigite and the degree of its surficial oxidation. The saturation magnetization of synthetic greigite is virtually independent of temperature from room temperature down to 4 K. The saturation remanent magnetization increases slowly by 20–30 per cent on cooling from room temperature to 4 K. A broad maximum is observed at ~10 K which may be diagnostic of greigite. The coercive and remanent coercive force both increase smoothly with decreasing temperature to 4 K. The coercive force increases from ~50 mT at room temperature to approximately 100–120 mT at 4 K, and the remanent coercive force increases from approximately 50–80 mT at room temperature to approximately 110–180 mT at 4 K.  相似文献   

Polarimetry and spectroscopy of RX J1141.3−6410: a single‐pole AM Her system     

David A. H. Buckley  Mark Cropper  Kurt van der Heyden  S. B. Potter  Dayal T. Wickramasinghe 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,318(1):187-194

We present polarimetric and spectroscopic observations of the ROSAT source RX J1141.3−6410, recently identified as a polar. The detection of circular polarization variations, with an amplitude of 10 per cent, over a 3.16-h period confirms that the system is a polar (AM Herculis star). Supporting evidence comes from the nature of the emission lines and their radial velocity variability. In addition, we observe continuum slope changes in the far-red spectral region (∼6000–8200 Å), indicative of phase dependent cyclotron emission. Polarimetric modelling at two wavelengths establishes RX J1141.3−6410 as a single-pole system, with i ∼ β ∼70°. The accretion region is extended in magnetic longitude, and is totally self-occulted for ∼25 per cent of the orbit. The radial velocity curves derived from the emission lines show a phasing with maximum blueshift occurring with Δ φ ∼0.05 of maximum intensity and circular polarisation. In addition, the broader component of the lines exhibit a substantial radial velocity phase shift with respect to the narrower component, in the sense that the broad component preceeds the narrow. This can be readily understood if the narrower component is principally a result of orbital motion of the stream material and the broad component mainly a result of streaming motion near the coupling region. The phasing of the Ca  ii near-infrared line radial velocities also supports this general picture.  相似文献   

The spring bloom in the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone as observed from a mesoscale array of bio-optical sensors     

Mark R. Abbott  James G. Richman  Ricardo M. Letelier  Jasmine S. Bartlett 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2000,47(15-16)

The US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) conducted a series of survey and process studies in part to understand the processes regulating primary productivity and carbon flux in the APFZ, which is a high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll (HNLC) region. We deployed a high-resolution array of 12 moorings (average horizontal spacing 30 km) equipped with bio-optical and physical sensors to study the temporal and spatial scales of biological and physical processes in the APFZ. The moorings collected data from November 1997 to March 1998, effectively observing the growing season. Estimates of chlorophyll and sun-stimulated fluorescence/chlorophyll (F/C) were derived from the bio-optical measurements. Each mooring showed a strong spring bloom beginning in early December as the upper ocean began to stratify, with chlorophyll levels nearly quadrupling. The time series, along with ship studies, suggest that phytoplankton were initially light-limited as a result of deep, late spring mixing, followed by intense zooplankton grazing or silicate limitation, which controlled the maximum chlorophyll concentration, and finally by iron limitation, which led to increasing photoadaptive stress. These results suggest that phytoplankton in the APFZ are regulated by a confluence of processes involving light, grazing, silicate, and iron, and that models comprising a single mechanism may not be sufficient. The spring bloom in the APFZ is a transient event, persisting for only a few weeks, and therefore it is difficult to draw conclusions from sporadic ship cruises. Moreover, its spatial scales are also small so that widely spaced hydrographic stations can easily overlook critical processes.  相似文献   

青藏高原北缘阿尔金东段中生代南北向伸展作用   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

陈宣华  An Yin  George E. Gehrels  Eric S. Cowgill  Marty Grove  T. Mark Harrison  王小凤  杨农  刘健 《地质力学学报》2004,10(3):193-212

青藏高原北缘的阿尔金山脉东段发育了延伸大于300 km、东西走向的拉配泉断裂,为南倾的正断层,局部倾角可以低至30°以下。断层中段表现为30~50 m厚的韧性剪切带,发育有较好的糜棱岩组构和矿物伸展线理;东段和西段以碎裂变形为特征。断裂带内运动学标志,如不对称香肠构造、不对称褶皱和次级脆性和韧性断裂,都指示了上盘向南的正滑移剪切方式。两方面证据控制了拉配泉断裂的活动时代。首先,拉配泉断裂上盘局部产出早-中侏罗世沉积地层。侏罗系地层中的砾石,特别是其中的含叠层石硅质灰岩和紫色石英岩,可以与断裂下盘的岩石相对比。早-中侏罗世地层可能为拉配泉断裂之上的伸展盆地沉积。其次,拉配泉断裂下盘岩石的40Ar/39Ar热年代学分析给出2个明显的冷却事件。较老的事件出现在约220~187 Ma之间的三叠纪末期至侏罗纪早期,而年轻的事件出现在早白垩世的晚期(约100 Ma).约220~187 Ma之间的冷却年龄在拉配泉断裂下盘岩石中普遍存在,代表了拉配泉断裂正断作用的主要阶段。约100 Ma时,断裂东段的正断作用再次活动,该事件可能被南倾的恰什坎正断层运动所叠加而增强,并与拉配泉断裂的东段合并。这2条断裂具有共同的上盘向南的正滑移运动方式。青藏高原和东亚其它地区的中生代伸展作用可以归结为特提斯洋向北和太平洋向西俯冲形成的弧后伸展作用。   相似文献