The need for data: natural disasters and the challenges of database management   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Angelika Wirtz  Wolfgang Kron  Petra Löw  Markus Steuer 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):135-157

Hundreds of natural catastrophes occur worldwide every year—there were 780 loss events per year on average over the last 10 years. Since 1980, these disasters have claimed over two million lives and caused losses worth US$ 3,000 billion. The deadliest disasters were caused by earthquakes: the tsunami following the Sumatra quake (2004) and the Haiti earthquake (2010) claimed more than 220,000 lives each. The Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 was the costliest natural disaster of all times, with total losses of US$ 210 billion. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, was the second costliest disaster, with total losses of US$ 140 billion (in 2010 values). To ensure that high-quality natural disaster analyses can be performed, the data have to be collected, checked and managed with a high degree of expertise and professionality. Scientists, governmental and non-governmental organisations and the finance industry make use of global databases that contain losses attributable to natural catastrophes. At present, there are three global and multi-peril loss databases: NatCatSERVICE (Munich Re), Sigma (Swiss Re) and EM-Dat (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). They are supplemented by numerous databases focusing on national or regional issues, certain hazards and specific sectors. This paper outlines the criteria and definitions relating to how global and multi-peril databases are operated, and the efforts being made to ensure consistent and internationally recognised standards of data management. In addition, it presents the concept and methodology underlying the NatCatSERVICE database, and points out the many challenges associated with data acquisition and data management.  相似文献   

Suitability of Existing Numerical Model Codes and Thermodynamic Databases for the Prognosis of Calcite Dissolution Processes in Near-Surface Sediments Due to a CO2 Leakage Investigated by Column Experiments     

Christoph Haase  Andreas Dahmke  Markus Ebert  Dirk Schäfer  Frank Dethlefsen 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2014,20(6):639-661

Among the risks of CO₂ storage is the potential of CO₂ leakage into overlaying formations and near-surface potable aquifers. Through a leakage, the CO₂ can intrude into protected groundwater resources, which can lead to groundwater acidification followed by potential mobilisation of heavy metals and other trace metals through mineral dissolution or ion exchange processes. The prediction of pH buffer reactions in the formations overlaying a CO₂ storage site is essential for assessing the impact of CO₂ leakages in terms of trace metal mobilisation. For buffering the pH-value, calcite dissolution is one of the most important mechanisms. Although calcite dissolution has been studied for decades, experiments conducted under elevated CO₂ partial pressures are rare. Here, the first study for column experiments is presented applying CO₂ partial pressures from 6 to 43 bars and realising a near-natural flow regime. Geochemical calculations of calcite dissolution kinetics were conducted using PHREEQC together with different thermodynamic databases. Applying calcite surface areas, which were previously acquired by N₂-BET or calculated based on grain diameters, respectively, to the rate laws according to Plummer et al. (Am J Sci 278:179–216, doi:10.2475/ajs.278.2.179, 1978) or Palandri and Kharaka (US Geol Surv Open file Rep 2004–1068:71, 2004) in the numerical simulations led to an overestimation of the calcite dissolution rate by up to three orders of magnitude compared to the results of the column experiments. Only reduction of the calcite surface area in the simulations as a fitting procedure allowed reproducing the experimental results. A reason may be that the diffusion boundary layer (DBL), which depends on the groundwater flow velocity and develops at the calcite grain surface separating it from the bulk of the solution, has to be regarded: The DBL leads to a decrease in the calcite dissolution rate under natural laminar flow conditions compared to turbulent mixing in traditional batch experiments. However, varying the rate constants by three orders of magnitudes in a field scale PHREEQC model simulating a CO₂ leakage produced minor variations in the pH buffering through calcite dissolution. This justifies the use of equilibrium models when calculating the calcite dissolution in CO₂ leakage scenarios for porous aquifers and slow or moderate groundwater flow velocities. However, the selection of the thermodynamic database has an impact on the dissolved calcium concentration, leading to an uncertainty in the simulation results. The resulting uncertainty, which applies also to the calculated propagation of an aquifer zone depleted in calcite through dissolution, seems negligible for shallow aquifers of approximately 60 m depth, but amounts to 35 % of the calcium concentration for aquifers at a depth of approximately 400 m.  相似文献   

A geological database for parameterization in numerical modeling of subsurface storage in northern Germany   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Frank Dethlefsen  Markus Ebert  Andreas Dahmke 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(5):2227-2244

Underground land use can play a significant role in future concepts of energy and gas storage and requires an improved understanding of the parameters of potential storage formations (saline aquifers), for instance of porosity and permeability, and also of mineralogical and gas compositions. This study aims at providing data examples and calculating vertical spatial variations through variogram analyses of important North German geological reservoirs from Dogger, Rhaetian, Middle Buntsandstein, and Rotliegend (Sub)Groups and Formations, focusing on the western part of the North German Basin. Vertical correlation lengths of porosity and permeability data range between 0 and 30 m, while most results are calculated at approximately 2–4 m and do not show relevant differences among the evaluated formations. In the majority of the regarded formations, the Kozeny–Carman relationship between porosity and permeability is supported as long as low porosity and permeability values are excluded from the evaluation. Mineral percentages varied significantly among the evaluated sediments. Besides quartz, ankerite is the main compound in the Dogger Group, while feldspars and clay minerals were more frequent in the Rhaetian, Middle Buntsandstein, and Rotliegend sediments. Methane was the main gas compound in the reservoirs, followed by nitrogen, ethane, and carbon dioxide. This study serves as preparatory work to allow for the parameterization of geological models and a subsequent simulation of fluid transport to evaluate (long-term) safety and impacts of geothermal and gas storage projects.  相似文献   

Predictions of microwave and far-infrared transitions in He--H₂⁺     

Markus Meuwly  Jeremy M. Hutson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,302(4):790-792

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