Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：15  

David G. Vaughan  Gareth J. Marshall  William M. Connolley  Claire Parkinson  Robert Mulvaney  Dominic A. Hodgson  John C. King  Carol J. Pudsey  John Turner 《Climatic change》2003,60(3):243-274

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.  相似文献   

Carboniferous diamictite dykes in the Falkland Islands     

D.M. Hyam  J.E.A. Marshall  D.J. Sanderson 《Journal of African Earth Sciences》1997,25(4):505-517

Sedimentary dykes hosted in ? Ordovician-Devonian strata on the Falkland Islands contain diamictite. The dykes, which are discordant to the host rocks, are sub-vertical, parallel-sided sheets formed by downward injection of a semi-fluidized sediment. On West Falkland palynomorphs present in 2 of the 11 dykes located demonstrate a Late Visean-Early Namurian age. This is older than the main Lafonian Diamictite Formation (Permian) and indicates that the dykes are a rare preservation of sediments formed during the main ice coverage of the Gondwana glaciation. Vitrinite reflectance from organic matter in the dykes indicates a shallow burial history (< 2–3 km) for the southwest Falkland Islands implying deposition of an incomplete or condensed sequence during Late Palaeozoic times, although the stratigraphical relationship of the dykes indicates that this may be extended back into the Mid Palaeozoic. The two diamictite dykes located on East Falkland are shown to be younger; probably Permian in age.  相似文献   

Genetic significance of fluid inclusions in the CSA Cu–Pb–Zn deposit, Cobar, Australia     

Alan D. Giles  Brian Marshall   《Ore Geology Reviews》2004,24(3-4):241

CSA mine exploits a ‘Cobar-type’ Cu–Pb–Zn±Au±Ag deposit within a cleaved and metamorphosed portion of the Cobar Supergroup, central New South Wales. The deposit comprises systems of ‘lenses’ that encompass veins, disseminations and semi-massive to massive Cu–Pb–Zn ores. The systems and contained lenses truncate bedding, are approximately coplanar with regional cleavage and similarly oriented shear zones and plunge parallel to the elongation lineation. Systems have extreme vertical continuity (>1000 m), short strike length (400 m) and narrow width (100 m), exhibit vertical and lateral ore-type variation and have alteration haloes. Models of ore formation include classical hydrothermalism, structurally controlled remobilisation and polymodal concepts; syntectonic emplacement now holds sway.Fluid inclusions were examined from quartz±sulphide veins adjacent to now-extracted ore, from coexisting quartz–sulphide within ore, and from vughs in barren quartz veins. Lack of early primary inclusions precluded direct determination of fluids associated with D₂–D₃ ore and vein emplacement. Similarly, decrepitation (by near-isobaric heating) of the two oldest secondary populations precluded direct determination of fluid phases immediately following D₂–D₃ ore and vein emplacement. Post-decrepitation outflow (late D₃ to early post-D₃) is recorded by monophase CH₄ inclusions. Entrained outflow of deeply circulated meteoric fluid modified the CH₄ system; modification is recorded by H₂O+CH₄ and H₂O+(trace CH₄) secondary populations and by an H₂O+(trace CH₄) primary population. The contractional tectonics (D₂–D₃) of ore emplacement was superseded by relaxational tectonics (D_4P) that facilitated meteoric water penetration and return flow.Under D₂ prograde metamorphism, entrapment temperatures (Tt) and pressures (Pt) for pre-decrepitation secondary inclusions are estimated as Tt300–330 °C and Pt1.5–2 kbar≈Plith (the lithostatic pressure). Decrepitation accompanied peak metamorphism (T350–380 °C) in mid- to late-D₃, while in late-D₃ to early post-D₃, essentially monophase CH₄ secondary inclusions were entrapped at Tt350 °C and Pt=1.5–2 kbar≈Plith. Subsequently, abundant CH₄ and entrained meteoric water were entrapped as H₂O+CH₄ secondaries under slowly decreasing temperature (Tt330–350 °C) and constant pressure (Pt1.5–2 kbar). Finally, with increasingly dominant meteoric outflow, H₂O+(trace CH₄) populations record decreasing temperatures (Tt>300 to <350 down to 275–300 °C) at pressures of Phydrostatic<Pt (1 kbar) <Plith (1.5 kbar).The populations of inclusions provide insight into fluid types, flow regimes and P–T conditions during parts of the deposit's evolution. They indirectly support the role of basin-derived CH₄ fluids in ore formation, but provide no insight into a basement-sourced ore-forming fluid. They fully support post-ore involvement of meteoric water. The poorly constrained entrapment history is believed to span 10 Ma from 395 to 385 Ma.  相似文献   

Predicting small business demise after a natural disaster: an analysis of pre-existing conditions     

Maria I. Marshall  Linda S. Niehm  Sandra B. Sydnor  Holly L. Schrank 《Natural Hazards》2015,79(1):331-354

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Inference and uncertainty of snow depth spatial distribution at the kilometre scale in the Colorado Rocky Mountains: the effects of sample size,random sampling,predictor quality,and validation procedures          下载免费PDF全文

J. L. McCreight  A. G. Slater  H. P. Marshall  B. Rajagopalan 《水文研究》2014,28(3):933-957

Historically, observing snow depth over large areas has been difficult. When snow depth observations are sparse, regression models can be used to infer the snow depth over a given area. Data sparsity has also left many important questions about such inference unexamined. Improved inference, or estimation, of snow depth and its spatial distribution from a given set of observations can benefit a wide range of applications from water resource management, to ecological studies, to validation of satellite estimates of snow pack. The development of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology has provided non‐sparse snow depth measurements, which we use in this study, to address fundamental questions about snow depth inference using both sparse and non‐sparse observations. For example, when are more data needed and when are data redundant? Results apply to both traditional and manual snow depth measurements and to LiDAR observations. Through sampling experiments on high‐resolution LiDAR snow depth observations at six separate 1.17‐km² sites in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we provide novel perspectives on a variety of issues affecting the regression estimation of snow depth from sparse observations. We measure the effects of observation count, random selection of observations, quality of predictor variables, and cross‐validation procedures using three skill metrics: percent error in total snow volume, root mean squared error (RMSE), and R². Extremes of predictor quality are used to understand the range of its effect; how do predictors downloaded from internet perform against more accurate predictors measured by LiDAR? Whereas cross validation remains the only option for validating inference from sparse observations, in our experiments, the full set of LiDAR‐measured snow depths can be considered the ‘true’ spatial distribution and used to understand cross‐validation bias at the spatial scale of inference. We model at the 30‐m resolution of readily available predictors, which is a popular spatial resolution in the literature. Three regression models are also compared, and we briefly examine how sampling design affects model skill. Results quantify the primary dependence of each skill metric on observation count that ranges over three orders of magnitude, doubling at each step from 25 up to 3200. Whereas uncertainty (resulting from random selection of observations) in percent error of true total snow volume is typically well constrained by 100–200 observations, there is considerable uncertainty in the inferred spatial distribution (R²) even at medium observation counts (200–800). We show that percent error in total snow volume is not sensitive to predictor quality, although RMSE and R² (measures of spatial distribution) often depend critically on it. Inaccuracies of downloaded predictors (most often the vegetation predictors) can easily require a quadrupling of observation count to match RMSE and R² scores obtained by LiDAR‐measured predictors. Under cross validation, the RMSE and R² skill measures are consistently biased towards poorer results than their true validations. This is primarily a result of greater variance at the spatial scales of point observations used for cross validation than at the 30‐m resolution of the model. The magnitude of this bias depends on individual site characteristics, observation count (for our experimental design), and sampling design. Sampling designs that maximize independent information maximize cross‐validation bias but also maximize true R². The bagging tree model is found to generally outperform the other regression models in the study on several criteria. Finally, we discuss and recommend use of LiDAR in conjunction with regression modelling to advance understanding of snow depth spatial distribution at spatial scales of thousands of square kilometres. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The impact of rural land management changes on soil hydraulic properties and runoff processes: results from experimental plots in upland UK          下载免费PDF全文

M. R. Marshall  C. E. Ballard  Z. L. Frogbrook  I. Solloway  B. Reynolds  H. S. Wheater 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2617-2629

To develop an evidence base to help predict the impacts of land management change on flood generation, four experimental sites were established on improved grassland used for sheep grazing at the Pontbren catchment in upland Wales, UK. At each site, three plots were established where surface runoff was measured, supplemented by measurements of soil infiltration rates and soil and vegetation physical properties. Following baseline monitoring, treatments were applied to two of the plots: exclusion of sheep (ungrazed) and exclusion of sheep and planting with native broadleaf tree species (tree planted), with the third plot acting as a control (grazed pasture). Due to a particularly dry summer that occurred pre‐treatment, the soil hydrological responses were initially impacted by the effects of the climate on soil structure. Nevertheless, treatments did have a clear influence on soil hydrological response. On average, post‐treatment runoff volumes were reduced by 48% and 78% in ungrazed and tree‐planted plots relative to the control, although all results varied greatly over the sites. Five years following treatment application, near‐surface soil bulk density was reduced and median soil infiltration rates were 67 times greater in plots planted with trees compared to grazed pasture. The results illustrate the potential use of upland land management for ameliorating local‐scale flood generation but emphasise the need for long‐term monitoring to more clearly separate the effects of land management from those of climatic variability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Significance of post‐peak metamorphic reaction microstructures in the ultrahigh temperature Eastern Ghats Province,India          下载免费PDF全文

David E. Kelsey  Laura J. Morrissey  Martin Hand  Chris Clark  Renee Tamblyn  Adrian A. Gaehl  Sarah Marshall 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2017,35(9):1081-1109

Ultrahigh temperature (UHT) granulites in the Eastern Ghats Province (EGP) have a complex P–T–t history. We review the P–T histories of UHT metamorphism in the EGP and use that as a framework for investigating the P–T–t history of Mg–Al‐rich granulites from Anakapalle, with the express purpose of trying to reconcile the down‐pressure‐dominated P–T path with other UHT localities in the EGP. Mafic granulite that is host to Mg–Al‐rich metasedimentary granulites at Anakapalle has a protolith age of c. 1,580 Ma. Mg–Al‐rich metasedimentary granulites within the mafic granulite at Anakapalle were metamorphosed at UHT conditions during tectonism at 960–875 Ma, meaning that the UHT metamorphism was not the result of contact metamorphism from emplacement of the host mafic rock. Reworking occurred during the Pan‐African (c. 600–500 Ma) event, and is interpreted to have produced hydrous assemblages that overprint the post‐peak high‐T retrograde assemblages. In contrast to rocks elsewhere in the EGP that developed post‐peak cordierite, the metasedimentary granulites at Anakapalle developed post‐peak, generation ‘2’ reaction products that are cordierite‐absent and nominally anhydrous. Therefore, rocks at Anakapalle offer the unique opportunity to quantify the pressure drop that occurred during so‐called M2 that affected the EGP. We argue that M2 is either a continuation of M1 and that the overall P–T path shape is a complex counter‐clockwise loop, or that M1 is an up‐temperature counter‐clockwise deviation superimposed on the M2 path. Therefore, rather than the rocks at Anakapalle having a metamorphic history that is apparently anomalous from the rest of the EGP, we interpret that other previously studied localities in the EGP record a different part of the same P–T path history as Anakapalle, but do not preserve a significant record of pressure decrease. This is due either to the inability of refractory rocks to extensively react to produce a rich mineralogical record of pressure decrease, or because the earlier high‐P part of the rocks history was erased by the M1 loop. Irrespective of the specific scenario, models for the tectonic evolution of the EGP must take the substantial pressure decrease during M2 into account, as it is probable the P–T record at Anakapalle is a reflection of tectonics affecting the entire province.  相似文献   

Learning the hard way: a case study of an attempt at agricultural transformation in response to climate change     

E. Jakku  P. J. Thorburn  N. A. Marshall  A-M. Dowd  S. M. Howden  E. Mendham  K. Moon  C. Brandon 《Climatic change》2016,137(3-4):557-574

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Adjoint analysis of Buckley-Leverett and two-phase flow equations     

Savithru Jayasinghe  David L. Darmofal  Marshall C. Galbraith  Nicholas K. Burgess  Steven R. Allmaras 《Computational Geosciences》2018,22(2):527-542

This paper analyzes the adjoint equations and boundary conditions for porous media flow models, specifically the Buckley-Leverett equation, and the compressible two-phase flow equations in mass conservation form. An adjoint analysis of a general scalar hyperbolic conservation law whose primal solutions include a shock jump is initially presented, and the results are later specialized to the Buckley-Leverett equation. The non-convexity of the Buckley-Leverett flux function results in adjoint characteristics that are parallel to the shock front upstream of the shock and emerge from the shock front downstream of the shock. Thus, in contrast to the behavior of Burgers’ equation where the adjoint is continuous at a shock, the Buckley-Leverett adjoint, in general, contains a discontinuous jump across the shock. Discrete adjoint solutions from space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element approximations of the Buckley-Leverett equation are shown to be consistent with the derived closed-form analytical solutions. Furthermore, a general result relating the adjoint equations for different (though equivalent) primal equations is used to relate the two-phase flow adjoints to the Buckley-Leverett adjoint. Adjoint solutions from space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element approximations of the two-phase flow equations are observed to obey this relationship.  相似文献   

The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan     

Richard A. Staff  Takeshi Nakagawa  Gordon Schlolaut  Michael H. Marshall  Achim Brauer  Henry F. Lamb  Christopher Bronk Ramsey  Charlotte L. Bryant  Fiona Brock  Hiroyuki Kitagawa  Johannes van der Plicht  Rebecca L. Payne  Victoria C. Smith  Darren F. Mark  Alison Macleod  Simon P. E. Blockley  Jean‐Luc Schwenninger  Pavel E. Tarasov  Tsuyoshi Haraguchi  Katsuya Gotanda  Hitoshi Yonenobu  Yusuke Yokoyama  Suigetsu Project Members 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(2):259-266

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).  相似文献