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91.
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A zonal-average model of the upper branch of the meridional overturning circulation of the southern ocean is constructed and used to discuss the processes – wind, buoyancy, eddy forcing and boundary conditions – that control its strength and sense of circulation. The geometry of the thermocline ‘wedge’, set by the mapping between the vertical spacing of buoyancy surfaces (the stratification) on the equatorial flank of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and their outcrop at the sea surface, is seen to play a central role by setting the interior large-scale potential vorticity distribution. It is shown that the action of eddies mixing this potential vorticity field induces a residual flow in the meridional plane much as is observed, with upwelling of fluid around Antarctica, northward surface flow and subduction to form intermediate water. Along with this overturning circulation there is a concomitant air-sea buoyancy flux directed in to the ocean. 相似文献
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Diagnostic calibration and cross‐catchment transferability of a simple process‐consistent hydrologic model
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The transferability of hydrologic models is of ever increasing importance for making improved hydrologic predictions and testing hypothesized hydrologic drivers. Here, we present an investigation into the variability and transferability of the recently introduced catchment connectivity model (Smith et al., 2013 ). The catchment connectivity model was developed following extensive experimental observations identifying the key drivers of streamflow in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Jencso et al., 2009 ; Jencso et al., 2010 ), with the goal of creating a simple model consistent with internal observations of catchment hydrologic connectivity patterns. The model was applied across seven catchments located within Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest to investigate spatial variability and transferability of model performance and parameterization. The results demonstrated that the model resulted in historically good fits (based on previous studies at the sites) to both the hydrograph and internal water table dynamics (corroborated with experimental observations). The impact of a priori parameter limits was also examined. It was observed that enforcing field‐based limits on model parameters resulted in slight reductions to streamflow hydrograph fits, but significant improvements to model process fidelity (as hydrologic connectivity), as well as moderate improvement in the transferability of model parameterizations from one catchment to the next. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Adrienne M. Marshall Timothy E. Link Gerald N. Flerchinger Dmitry J. Nicolsky Melissa S. Lucash 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14251
Soil moisture is an important driver of growth in boreal Alaska, but estimating soil hydraulic parameters can be challenging in this data-sparse region. Parameter estimation is further complicated in regions with rapidly warming climate, where there is a need to minimize model error dependence on interannual climate variations. To better identify soil hydraulic parameters and quantify energy and water balance and soil moisture dynamics, we applied the physically based, one-dimensional ecohydrological Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, loosely coupled with the Geophysical Institute of Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) model, to an upland deciduous forest stand in interior Alaska over a 13-year period. Using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation parameterisation, SHAW reproduced interannual and vertical spatial variability of soil moisture during a five-year validation period quite well, with root mean squared error (RMSE) of volumetric water content at 0.5 m as low as 0.020 cm3/cm3. Many parameter sets reproduced reasonable soil moisture dynamics, suggesting considerable equifinality. Model performance generally declined in the eight-year validation period, indicating some overfitting and demonstrating the importance of interannual variability in model evaluation. We compared the performance of parameter sets selected based on traditional performance measures such as the RMSE that minimize error in soil moisture simulation, with one that is designed to minimize the dependence of model error on interannual climate variability using a new diagnostic approach we call CSMP, which stands for Climate Sensitivity of Model Performance. Use of the CSMP approach moderately decreases traditional model performance but may be more suitable for climate change applications, for which it is important that model error is independent from climate variability. These findings illustrate (1) that the SHAW model, coupled with GIPL, can adequately simulate soil moisture dynamics in this boreal deciduous region, (2) the importance of interannual variability in model parameterisation, and (3) a novel objective function for parameter selection to improve applicability in non-stationary climates. 相似文献
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Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States
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Liang Wei Timothy E. Link Andrew T. Hudak John D. Marshall Kathleen L. Kavanagh John T. Abatzoglou Hang Zhou Robert E. Pangle Gerald N. Flerchinger 《水文研究》2016,30(13):2000-2013
Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long‐term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal watershed hydrological fluxes that affect discharge. We used the physically based Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model to simulate the inter‐annual hydrological dynamics of a 4 km2 watershed in northern Idaho. The model simulates seasonal and annual water balance components including evaporation, transpiration, storage changes, deep drainage, and trends in streamflow. Independent measurements were used to parameterize the model, including forest transpiration, stomatal feedback to vapour pressure, forest properties (height, leaf area index, and biomass), soil properties, soil moisture, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. No calibrations were applied to fit the simulated streamflow to observations. The model reasonably simulated the annual runoff variations during the evaluation period from water year 2004 to 2009, which verified the ability of SHAW to simulate the water budget in this small watershed. The simulations indicated that inter‐annual variations in streamflow were driven by variations in precipitation and soil water storage. One key parameterization issue was leaf area index, which strongly influenced interception across the catchment. This approach appears promising to help elucidate the mechanisms responsible for hydrological trends and variations resulting from climate and vegetation changes on small watersheds in the region. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Climate-induced increase in surface temperatures can impact hydrologic processes of a watershed system. This study uses a continuous simulation model to evaluate potential implications of increasing temperature on water quantity and quality at a regional scale in the Connecticut River Watershed of New England. The increase in temperature was modeled using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) high and low warming scenarios to incorporate the range of possible temperature change. It was predicted that climate change can have a significant affects on streamflow, sediment loading, and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loading in a watershed. Climate change also influences the timing and magnitude of runoff and sediment yield. Changes in variability of flows and pollutant loading that are induced by climate change have important implications on water supplies, water quality, and aquatic ecosystems of a watershed. Potential impacts of these changes include deficit supplies during peak seasons of water demand, increased eutrophication potential, and impacts on fish migration. 相似文献
100.
Stanislav S. Davydenko Thomas C. Marshall Maribeth Stolzenburg 《Atmospheric Research》2009,91(2-4):165-177
This study examines the electricity in two thunderstorms, typical for their respective locales (the Great Plains and the New Mexico mountains), by modeling them as a set of steady-state horizontal layers of external currents. The model electric sources, corresponding to the charge separation processes in the thundercloud, are embedded in an exponential conducting atmosphere. The source parameters are determined by fitting the model electric field to measured profiles. The resulting currents to the ionosphere (i.e., the Wilson current) from the two storms are 0.53 A and 0.16 A, while the calculated electrical energies of the storms are 2.3 × 1010 J and 2.8 × 109 J, respectively. The more vigorous storm is estimated to transfer 16 000 C in the global circuit during 8.5 h of its lifetime, while the weaker mountain storm transferred about 1200 C in its entire 2-h lifetime. Removal of the screening charge layer from above the updraft region in one modeled storm leads to only a small increase in the net Wilson current of less than 3%, while it provides a substantial local disturbance of the electric field. Overall, the model findings indicate that differences in the Wilson currents and electrical energies of the two storms result from differences in their internal dynamical and electrical structures as well as their geographical locations. 相似文献