Technology innovation and diffusion in “less than ideal” climate policies: An assessment with the WITCH model   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Enrica De Cian  Valentina Bosetti  Massimo Tavoni 《Climatic change》2012,114(1):121-143

This paper examines the dynamics of innovation in low-carbon energy technologies distinguishing between research and development and technology diffusion as a response to alternative climate policies. We assess the implications of second-best policies that depart from the assumption of immediate and global participation and of full technology availability. The analysis highlights the heterogeneous effects of climate policy on different energy R&D programs and discusses the contribution of important determinants such as carbon price and policy stringency, policy credibility, policy and technological spillovers and absorptive capacity.  相似文献   

Indian Ocean SST, evaporation, and precipitation during the South Asian summer monsoon in IPCC-AR4 coupled simulations     

Massimo Bollasina  Sumant Nigam 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(7-8):1017-1032

The veracity of modeled air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean during the South Asian summer monsoon is examined. Representative simulations of the twentieth century climate, produced by coupled general circulation models as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, are the analysis targets along with observational data. The analysis shows the presence of large systematic biases in coupled simulations of boreal summer precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean, often exceeding 50% of the climatological values. Many of the biases are pervasive, being common to most simulations. The representation of air–sea interactions is also compromised. Coupled models tend to emphasize local forcing in the Indian Ocean as reflected by their large precipitation–SST correlations, at odds with the weak links in observations which suggest the importance of non-local controls. The evaporation–SST correlations are also differently represented, indicating atmospheric control on SST in some models and SST control on evaporation in others. The Indian monsoon rainfall–SST links are also misrepresented: the former is essentially uncorrelated with antecedent and contemporaneous Indian Ocean SSTs in nature, but not so in most of the simulations. Overall, coupled models are found deficient in portraying local and non-local air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean during boreal summer. In our opinion, current models cannot provide durable insights on regional climate feedbacks nor credible projections of regional hydroclimate variability and change, should these involve ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Indian basin.  相似文献   

Counting only the hits? The risk of underestimating the costs of stringent climate policy   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Massimo Tavoni  Richard S. J. Tol 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):769-778

This paper warns against the risk of underestimating the costs—and the uncertainty about the costs—of achieving stringent stabilization targets. We argue that a straightforward review of integrated assessment models results produces biased estimates for the more ambitious climate objectives such as those compatible with the 2°C of the European Union and the G8. The magnitude and range of estimates are significantly reduced because only the most optimistic results are reported for such targets. We suggest a procedure that addresses this partiality. The results show highly variable costs for the most ambitious scenarios.  相似文献   

Delayed action and uncertain stabilisation targets. How much will the delay cost?     

Valentina Bosetti  Carlo Carraro  Massimo Tavoni 《Climatic change》2009,96(3):299-312

Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance.  相似文献   

Geological and geophysical investigation of Kamil crater,Egypt     

Stefano Urbini  Iacopo Nicolosi  Antonio Zeoli  Sami El Khrepy  Ahmed Lethy  Mahfooz Hafez  Mohamed El Gabry  Ahmed El Barkooky  Aly Barakat  Mahomoud GOMAA  Ali M. Radwan  Mohamed El Sharkawi  Massimo D’orazio  Luigi Folco 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(11):1842-1868

Abstract– We detail the Kamil crater (Egypt) structure and refine the impact scenario, based on the geological and geophysical data collected during our first expedition in February 2010. Kamil Crater is a model for terrestrial small‐scale hypervelocity impact craters. It is an exceptionally well‐preserved, simple crater with a diameter of 45 m, depth of 10 m, and rayed pattern of bright ejecta. It occurs in a simple geological context: flat, rocky desert surface, and target rocks comprising subhorizontally layered sandstones. The high depth‐to‐diameter ratio of the transient crater, its concave, yet asymmetric, bottom, and the fact that Kamil Crater is not part of a crater field confirm that it formed by the impact of a single iron mass (or a tight cluster of fragments) that fragmented upon hypervelocity impact with the ground. The circular crater shape and asymmetries in ejecta and shrapnel distributions coherently indicate a direction of incidence from the NW and an impact angle of approximately 30 to 45°. Newly identified asymmetries, including the off‐center bottom of the transient crater floor downrange, maximum overturning of target rocks along the impact direction, and lower crater rim elevation downrange, may be diagnostic of oblique impacts in well‐preserved craters. Geomagnetic data reveal no buried individual impactor masses >100 kg and suggest that the total mass of the buried shrapnel >100 g is approximately 1050–1700 kg. Based on this mass value plus that of shrapnel >10 g identified earlier on the surface during systematic search, the new estimate of the minimum projectile mass is approximately 5 t.  相似文献   

The Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array: overview & status     

Massimo Tarenghi 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,313(1-3):1-7

The Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) is an international millimeter-wavelength radio telescope under construction in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. ALMA will be situated on a high-altitude site at 5000 m elevation which provides excellent atmospheric transmission over the instrument wavelength range of 0.3 to 3 mm. ALMA will be comprised of two key observing components—a main array of up to sixty-four 12-m diameter antennas arranged in a multiple configurations ranging in size from 0.15 to ∼18 km, and a set of four 12-m and twelve 7-m antennas operating in a compact array ∼50 m in diameter (known as the Atacama Compact Array, or ACA), providing both interferometric and total-power astronomical information. High-sensitivity dual-polarization 8 GHz-bandwidth spectral-line and continuum measurements between all antennas will be available from two flexible digital correlators. At the shortest planned wavelength and largest configuration, the angular resolution of ALMA will be 0.005″. The instrument will use superconducting (SIS) mixers to provide the lowest possible receiver noise contribution, and special-purpose water vapor radiometers to assist in calibration of atmospheric phase distortions. A complex optical fiber network will transmit the digitized astronomical signals from the antennas to the correlators in the Array Operations Site Technical Building, and post-correlation to the lower-altitude Operations Support Facility where the array will be controlled, and initial construction and maintenance of the instrument will occur. ALMA Regional Centers in the US, Europe, Japan and Chile will provide the scientific portals for the use of ALMA; early science observations are expected in 2010, with full operations in 2012.  相似文献   

Historical behaviour of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica) as investigated by snow accumulation and ice velocity measurements     

Stefano Urbini  Massimo Frezzotti  Stefano Gandolfi  Christian Vincent  Claudio Scarchilli  Luca Vittuari  Michel Fily 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):576-588

Ice divide–dome behaviour is used for ice sheet mass balance studies and interpretation of ice core records. In order to characterize the historical behaviour (last 400 yr) of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica), ice velocities have been measured since 1996 using a GPS system, and the palaeo-spatial variability of snow accumulation has been surveyed using snow radar and firn cores. The snow accumulation distribution of both domes indicates distributions of accumulation that are non-symmetrical in relation to dome morphology. Changes in spatial distributions have been observed over the last few centuries, with a decrease in snow accumulation gradient along the wind direction at Talos Dome and a counter-clockwise rotation of accumulation distribution in the northern part of Dome C. Observations at Dome C reveal a significant increase in accumulation since the 1950s, which could correlate to altered snow accumulation patterns due to changes in snowfall trajectory. Snow accumulation mechanisms are different at the two domes: a wind-driven snow accumulation process operates at Talos Dome, whereas snowfall trajectory direction is the main factor at Dome C. Repeated GPS measurements made at Talos Dome have highlighted changes in ice velocity, with a deceleration in the NE portion, acceleration in the SW portion and migration of dome summit, which are apparently correlated with changes in accumulation distribution. The observed behaviour in accumulation and velocity indicates that even the most remote areas of East Antarctica have changed from a decadal to secular scale.  相似文献   

High-Nb hawaiite–mugearite and high-Mg calc-alkaline lavas from northeastern Iran: Oligo-Miocene melts from modified mantle wedge     

Parham Ahmadi  Massimo Coltorti  Takeshi Kuritani  Yue Cai  Anna Maria Fioretti 《International Geology Review》2019,61(2):150-174

Tertiary volcanic rocks in northwestern Firoozeh, Iran (the Meshkan triangular structural unit), constitute vast outcrops (up to 250 km²) of high-Mg basaltic andesites to dacites that are associated with high-Nb hawaiites and mugearites. Whole-rock ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages show a restricted range of 24.1 ± 0.4–22.9 ± 0.5 Ma for the volcanic rocks. The initial ratios of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd vary from 0.703800 to 0.704256 and 0.512681 to 0.512877, respectively, in the high-Mg basaltic andesites–dacites. High-Th contents (up to 11 ppm) and Sr/Y values (27–100) and the isotopic composition of the subalkaline high-Mg basaltic andesites–dacites indicate derivation from a mantle modified by slab and sediment partial melts. Evidence such as reverse zoning and resorbed textures and high Ni and Cr contents in the evolved samples indicate that magma mixing with mafic melts and concurrent fractional crystallization lead to the compositional evolution of this series. The high-Nb hawaiites and mugearites, by contrast, have a sodic alkaline affinity and are silica undersaturated; they are also enriched in Nb (up to 47 ppm) and a wide range of incompatible trace elements, including LILE, LREE, and HFSE. Geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotopic compositions of the high-Nb hawaiites and mugearites suggest derivation from a mantle source affected by lower degrees of slab melts. Post-orogenic slab break-off is suggested to have prompted the asthenospheric upwelling that triggered partial melting in mantle metasomatized by slab-derived melts.  相似文献   

卫星遥感结合地面观测估算非均匀地表区域能量通量   总被引：49，自引：1，他引：48  

马耀明  王介民  MassimoMenenti  WimBastiaanssen 《气象学报》1999,57(2):180-189

卫星遥感在研究非均匀陆面上地－气间能量和水循环过程时有其独到的作用。文中介绍了一种利用ＬＡＮＤＳＡＴＴＭ资料进行非均匀陆面上区域能量平衡研究的参数化方案。并以夏季和深秋两个景的ＴＭ资料为个例,结合“黑河实验”（ＨＥＩＦＥ）期间的地面观测资料分析了实验区非均匀陆面上地表特征参数及能量平衡各分量的区域分布及季节差异,同时将所得的结果与地面观测的“真值”作了比较,所得的这些结果是基本可信的。这种方法仍然处于发展的初始阶段,对此也进行了讨论。  相似文献   

Landscape response to tectonic and climatic forcing in the foredeep of the southern Apennines,Italy: insights from Quaternary stratigraphy,quantitative geomorphic analysis,and denudation rate proxies          下载免费PDF全文

Dario Gioia  Salvatore Gallicchio  Massimo Moretti  Marcello Schiattarella 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(6):814-835

We present new data about the morphological and stratigraphic evolution and the rates of fluvial denudation of the Tavoliere di Puglia plain, a low‐relief landscape representing the northernmost sector of the Pliocene‐Pleistocene foredeep of the southern Apennines. The study area is located between the easternmost part of the southern Apennine chain and the Gargano promontory and it is characterized by several orders of terraced fluvial deposits, disconformably overlying lower Pleistocene marine clay and organized in a staircase geometry, which recorded the emersion and the long‐term incision history of this sector since mid‐Pleistocene times. We used the spatial and altimetric distribution of several orders of middle to late Pleistocene fluvial terraces in order to perform paleotopographic reconstruction and GIS‐aided eroded volumes estimates. Then, we estimated denudation rates on the basis of the terraces chronostratigraphy, supported by published OSL and AAR dating. Middle to upper Pleistocene denudation rates estimated by means of such an approach are slightly lower than 0.1 mm yr^‐1, in good agreement with short‐term data from direct and indirect evaluation of suspended sediment yield. The analysis of longitudinal river profiles using the stream power erosion model provided additional information on the incision rates of the studied area. Middle to late Quaternary uplift rates (about 0.15 mm yr^‐1), calculated on the basis of the elevation above sea level of marine deposits outcropping in the easternmost sector of the study area, are quite similar to the erosion rates average value, thus suggesting a steady‐state fluvial incision. The approach adopted in this work has demonstrated that erosion rates traditionally obtained by quantitative geomorphic analysis and k_sn estimations can be successfully integrated to quantify rates of tectonic or geomorphological processes of a landscape approaching steady‐state equilibrium. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献