A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Matthew J. Purvis  Paul D. Bates  Christopher M. Hayes 《Coastal Engineering》2008,55(12):1062-1073

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.  相似文献   

Evaluating the Geographic in GIS     

Weihe W. Guan  Matthew W. Wilson  Anne K. Knowles 《Geographical review》2019,109(3):297-307

Despite several decades of discussion and debate around the role of GIS in the discipline of Geography, it would be a stretch to argue that GIS has not irreversibly altered the discipline, both in the scope of research and teaching as well as in the wider imagination of a general public. However, it remains a challenge to incorporate the range of geographic knowledge, born of a diversity of modalities, into operational insights and analytical pre‐conditions in a GIS. To be certain, some irreconcilability between GIS and geographical inquiry is to be expected, epistemologically speaking. In what follows, we consider what might be meant by a shift to geographic analysis as scholars from disciplines in the humanities and social sciences turn to GIS as a method of observation, interpretation, analysis, and representation. In this context, we engage in a thought experiment and offer some commentary, fixing the notion of information system, while opening the geographic in GIS to more variable understanding. The point is to pursue greater development of GIS theory and method, encompassing, while not reducing, scientific, social scientific, and humanities research.  相似文献   

Understanding the Past and Present and Predicting the Future: Farmers’ Use of Multiple Nutrient Best Management Practices in the Upper Midwest     

Riva C. H. Denny  Sandra T. Marquart-Pyatt  Matthew Houser 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(7):807-826

Understanding what drives farmers’ voluntary adoption of nutrient and soil best management practices has important consequences for many environmental outcomes including water quality. We build on research revealing the need for simultaneous use of multiple nitrogen best management practices to achieve water quality improvement goals. Using social, economic and attitudinal variables we predict the use of multiple nitrogen best management practices at three time points: current use (2013), past use (before 2013), and likelihood of use on their largest field in the next three years. Our empirical analysis uses structural equation modeling with latent variables and 2014 farmer survey data from three Midwestern US states. Most farmers in our sample used at least one of the six best management practices. Our results reveal that farmers’ attitudes, use of information sources, and conservation program participation affect the number of nitrogen best management practices concurrently in use at multiple time points.  相似文献   

Non-periglacial stone stripes? An example from North Wales     

Matthew R. Bennett 《Geological Journal》1993,28(1):81-88

A set of active stone stripes below a small debris cone in North Wales is described. In form they do not appear to resemble stone stripes described elsewhere. They are of particular note because their form is not controlled by conventional periglacial processes, but by stones moving downslope when sheep disturb the debris cone above. This downslope movement of stones has resulted in a complex pattern of stripes and horizontal terraces, the exact form of which appears to be controlled by probability. These observations add to the debate over the mode of formation of active stone stripes in Britain and the role of non-periglacial processes.  相似文献   

苏鲁超高压变质岩中地震波速随围压的变化规律     

嵇少丞  王茜  Denis MARCOTTE  许志琴  夏斌  Jacques MARTIGNOLE  Matthew SALISBURY 《地质学报》2006,80(12):1807-1812

我们在10~800MPa的静水压力下测量了中国大陆科学钻探(CCSD)主孔岩心和采自苏鲁地区地表露头上的共68块典型超高压变质岩试样的地震波速,并建立了波速和围压的定量关系,成功地解释了描述这一定量关系方程中4个参数的物理意义。笔者相信,本文将为超高压变质岩地区以及新老俯冲带地震波资料的解释提供必不可少的理论和实验支撑。  相似文献   

Unique achondrite Northwest Africa 11042: Exploring the melting and breakup of the L chondrite parent body     

Zoltn Vci  Carl B. Agee  Munir Humayun  Karen Ziegler  Yemane Asmerom  Victor Polyak  Henner Busemann  Daniela Krietsch  Matthew Heizler  Matthew E. Sanborn  Qing‐Zhu Yin 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2020,55(3):622-648

Northwest Africa (NWA) 11042 is a heavily shocked achondrite with medium‐grained cumulate textures. Its olivine and pyroxene compositions, oxygen isotopic composition, and chromium isotopic composition are consistent with L chondrites. Sm‐Nd dating of its primary phases shows a crystallization age of 4100 ± 160 Ma. Ar‐Ar dating of its shocked mineral maskelynite reveals an age of 484.0 ± 1.5 Ma. This age coincides roughly with the breakup event of the L chondrite parent body evident in the shock ages of many L chondrites and the terrestrial record of fossil L chondritic chromite. NWA 11042 shows large depletions in siderophile elements (<0.01×CI) suggestive of a complex igneous history involving extraction of a Fe‐Ni‐S liquid on the L chondrite parent body. Due to its relatively young crystallization age, the heat source for such an igneous process is most likely impact. Because its mineralogy, petrology, and O isotopes are similar to the ungrouped achondrite NWA 4284 (this work), the two meteorites are likely paired and derived from the same parent body.  相似文献   

Burial and exhumation of the Hoh Xil Basin,northern Tibetan Plateau: Constraints from detrital (U-Th)/He ages     

Jin-Gen Dai  Matthew Fox  David L. Shuster  Jeremy Hourigan  Xu Han  Ya-Lin Li  Cheng-Shan Wang 《Basin Research》2020,32(5):894-915

The uplift and associated exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau has been widely considered a key control of Cenozoic global cooling. The south-central parts of this plateau experienced rapid exhumation during the Cretaceous–Palaeocene periods. When and how the northern part was exhumed, however, remains controversial. The Hoh Xil Basin (HXB) is the largest late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary basin in the northern part, and it preserves the archives of the exhumation history. We present detrital apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He data from late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary rocks of the western and eastern HXB. These data, combined with regional geological constraints and interpreted with inverse and forward model of sediment deposition and burial reheating, suggest that the occurrence of ca. 4–2.7 km and ca. 4–2.3 km of vertical exhumation initiated at ca. 30–25 Ma and 40–35 Ma in the eastern and western HXB respectively. The initial differential exhumation of the eastern HXB and the western HXB might be controlled by the oblique subduction of the Qaidam block beneath the HXB. The initial exhumation timing in the northern Tibetan Plateau is younger than that in the south-central parts. This reveals an episodic exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau compared to models of synchronous Miocene exhumation of the entire plateau and the early Eocene exhumation of the northern Tibetan Plateau shortly after the India–Asia collision. One possible mechanism to account for outward growth is crustal shortening. A simple model of uplift and exhumation would predict a maximum of 0.8 km of surface uplift after upper crustal shortening during 30–27 Ma, which is insufficient to explain the high elevations currently observed. One way to increase elevation without changing exhumation rates and to decouple uplift from upper crustal shortening is through the combined effects of continental subduction, mantle lithosphere removal and magmatic inflation.  相似文献   

Leachable particulate iron in the Columbia River,estuary, and near-field plume     

Sherry M. Lippiatt  Matthew T. Brown  Maeve C. Lohan  Carolyn J.M. Berger  Kenneth W. Bruland 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

This study examines the distribution of leachable particulate iron (Fe) in the Columbia River, estuary, and near-field plume. Surface samples were collected during late spring and summer of 2004–2006 as part of four River Influence on Shelf Ecosystems (RISE) cruises. Tidal amplitude and river flow are the primary factors influencing the estuary leachable particulate Fe concentrations, with greater values during high flow and/or spring tides. Near the mouth of the estuary, leachable particulate Fe [defined as the particulate Fe solubilized with a 25% acetic acid (pH 2) leach containing a weak reducing agent to reduce Fe oxyhydroxides and a short heating step to access intracellular Fe] averaged 770 nM during either spring tide or high flow, compared to 320 nM during neap tide, low flow conditions. In the near-field Columbia River plume, elevated leachable particulate Fe concentrations occur during spring tides and/or higher river flow, with resuspended shelf sediment as an additional source to the plume during periods of coastal upwelling and spring tides. Near-field plume concentrations of leachable particulate Fe (at a salinity of 20) averaged 660 nM during either spring tide or high flow, compared to 300 nM during neap tide, low flow conditions. Regardless of tidal amplitude and river flow, leachable particulate Fe concentrations in both the river/estuary and near-field plume are consistently one to two orders of magnitude greater than dissolved Fe concentrations. The Columbia River is an important source of reactive Fe to the productive coastal waters off Oregon and Washington, and leachable particulate Fe is available for solubilization following biological drawdown of the dissolved phase. Elevated leachable Fe concentrations allow coastal waters influenced by the Columbia River plume to remain Fe-replete and support phytoplankton production during the spring and summer seasons.  相似文献   

Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning     

Melissa M. Foley  Benjamin S. Halpern  Fiorenza Micheli  Matthew H. Armsby  Margaret R. Caldwell  Caitlin M. Crain  Erin Prahler  Nicole Rohr  Deborah Sivas  Michael W. Beck  Mark H. Carr  Larry B. Crowder  J. Emmett Duffy  Sally D. Hacker  Karen L. McLeod  Stephen R. Palumbi  Charles H. Peterson  Helen M. Regan  Mary H. Ruckelshaus  Paul A. Sandifer  Robert S. Steneck 《Marine Policy》2010

The declining health of marine ecosystems around the world is evidence that current piecemeal governance is inadequate to successfully support healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems and sustain human uses of the ocean. One proposed solution to this problem is ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a process that informs the spatial distribution of activities in the ocean so that existing and emerging uses can be maintained, use conflicts reduced, and ecosystem health and services protected and sustained for future generations. Because a key goal of ecosystem-based MSP is to maintain the delivery of ecosystem services that humans want and need, it must be based on ecological principles that articulate the scientifically recognized attributes of healthy, functioning ecosystems. These principles should be incorporated into a decision-making framework with clearly defined targets for these ecological attributes. This paper identifies ecological principles for MSP based on a synthesis of previously suggested and/or operationalized principles, along with recommendations generated by a group of twenty ecologists and marine scientists with diverse backgrounds and perspectives on MSP. The proposed four main ecological principles to guide MSP—maintaining or restoring: native species diversity, habitat diversity and heterogeneity, key species, and connectivity—and two additional guidelines, the need to account for context and uncertainty, must be explicitly taken into account in the planning process. When applied in concert with social, economic, and governance principles, these ecological principles can inform the designation and siting of ocean uses and the management of activities in the ocean to maintain or restore healthy ecosystems, allow delivery of marine ecosystem services, and ensure sustainable economic and social benefits.  相似文献   

Accretionary lapilli from the Sudbury impact event          下载免费PDF全文

Matthew S. Huber  Christian Koeberl 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2017,52(6):1257-1276

Meteorite impact‐generated accretionary lapilli are not well studied. The recently discovered distal ejecta from the 1850 Ma Sudbury impact event contain abundant accretionary lapilli generated during the impact and deposited at great distances from the crater. We petrographically and geochemically examined lapilli from five sites (McClure, Connors Creek, Hwy 588, Pine River, and Grand Trunk Pacific, approximately 480–750 km from the center of the Sudbury structure). The compositions of quartz, K‐feldspar, calcite, biotite, and chlorite minerals are similar to each other in all of the samples, although the relative proportions of the minerals vary from site to site. The lapilli occur in a matrix of coarse‐grained quartz, carbonate, and feldspar grains. Zonation within lapilli appears to be due to grain size distribution rather than compositional variation. The inner zones are coarser grained than outer zones. The relative abundances of calcite, phyllosilicates, and feldspars are similar in each zone within individual lapilli. A meteoritic component is indicated by up to 1.8 ppb Ir in one lapillus from the Pine River site, and Ni and Cr ratios are on a chondritic trend line for many of the lapilli. Mechanisms previously proposed for accretionary lapilli formation seem inadequate to explain deposition of distal accretionary lapilli resulting from impact events. A new mechanism for upper atmospheric accretion is proposed, whereby ash ejected from impact events concentrates at altitudes of neutral buoyancy, where it then accretes and is deposited later than ballistically emplaced particles. Likely, multiple processes are taking place in the chaotic postimpact environment.  相似文献