Effect of selection and sequencing of representative wave conditions on process-based predictions of equilibrium embayed beach morphology     

Christopher J. Daly  Karin R. Bryan  Mauricio R. Gonzalez  Antonio H. F. Klein  Christian Winter 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(6):863-877

In order to decrease the simulation time of morphodynamic models, often-complex wave climates are reduced to a few representative wave conditions (RWC). When applied to embayed beaches, a test of whether a reduced wave climate is representative or not is to see whether it can recreate the observed equilibrium (long-term averaged) bathymetry of the bay. In this study, the wave climate experienced at Milagro Beach, Tarragona, Spain was discretized into ‘average’ and ‘extreme’ RWCs. Process-based morphodynamic simulations were sequenced and merged based on ‘persistent’ and ‘transient’ forcing conditions, the results of which were used to estimate the equilibrium bathymetry of the bay. Results show that the effect of extreme wave events appeared to have less influence on the equilibrium of the bay compared to average conditions of longer overall duration. Additionally, the persistent seasonal variation of the wave climate produces pronounced beach rotation and tends to accumulate sediment at the extremities of the beach, rather than in the central sections. It is, therefore, important to account for directional variability and persistence in the selection and sequencing of representative wave conditions as is it essential for accurately balancing the effects beach rotation events.  相似文献   

Strong ground-motion relations for Mexican interplate earthquakes     

Danny Arroyo  Daniel García  Mario Ordaz  Mauricio Alexander Mora  Shri Krishna Singh 《Journal of Seismology》2010,14(4):769-785

We derive strong ground-motion relations for horizontal components of pseudo-acceleration response spectra from Mexican interplate earthquakes at rock sites (NEHRP B class) in the forearc region. The functional form is obtained from the analytical solution of a circular finite-source model. For the regression analysis we use a recently proposed multivariate Bayesian technique. The resulting model has similar accuracy as those models derived from regional and worldwide subduction-zone databases. However, there are significant differences in the estimations computed from our model and other models. First, our results reveal that attenuation in Mexico tends to be stronger than that of worldwide relations, especially for large events. Second, our model predicts ground motions for large earthquakes at close distances to the source that are considerably larger than the estimations of global models. Lack of data in this range makes it difficult to identify the most appropriate model for this scenario. Nevertheless, according to the available data at the city of Acapulco, our model seems to estimate seismic hazard more adequately than the other models. These new relations may be useful in computing seismic hazard for the Mexican forearc region, where no similar equations had been yet proposed.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in terms of macroseismic intensity using a site approach     

Vera D’Amico  Dario Albarello  Ragnar Sigbjörnsson  Rajesh Rupakhety 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(7):1797-1811

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.  相似文献   

An assessment of the Brazil Current baroclinic structure and variability near 22° S in Distinct Ocean Forecasting and Analysis Systems   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mateus O. Lima  Mauro Cirano  Mauricio M. Mata  Marlos Goes  Gustavo Goni  Molly Baringer 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(6-7):893-916

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Preface to the special issue “Complexity in the Oil Industry 2007”     

Vera Pancaldi  Peter King  Liacir Dos Santos Lucena 《Computational Geosciences》2009,13(2):151-154

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Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Christine C. Shepard  Vera N. Agostini  Ben Gilmer  Tashya Allen  Jeff Stone  William Brooks  Michael W. Beck 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):727-745

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.  相似文献   

Social change and land tenure regimes in Mexico     

Mauricio Herrera Rodriguez 《GeoJournal》2012,77(5):633-649

This paper argues that the changing land tenure legislation in Mexico is a concrete reflection of generalized societal attitudes towards indigenous and traditional peasants. It contends that the 1992 neoliberal land-reform mimics the progress-oriented liberal project of the ninettenth century and continues a market-centered modernization process underway since the 1940s, which has been legitimized by an overt institutional disdain and discrimination against indigenous people, peasants and their ways of life. It concludes that this process of assimilation or eradication of traditional agro-ecosystems, cultural diversity and social organization will further increase the vulnerability of Mexican peasants to economic and cultural change. As peasants engage in market-controlled business ventures in the rural areas, migrate to cities, rent or sell their lands, they simultaneously adapt to new values and envision new strategies for subsistence that are increasingly mediated by political-economic forces largely beyond their sphere of influence.  相似文献   

Integrated provenance analysis of a convergent retroarc foreland system: U–Pb ages,heavy minerals,Nd isotopes,and sandstone compositions of the Middle Magdalena Valley basin,northern Andes,Colombia     

Junsheng Nie  Brian K. Horton  Joel E. Saylor  Andrés Mora  Maria Mange  Carmala N. Garzione  Asish Basu  Christopher J. Moreno  Victor Caballero  Mauricio Parra 《Earth》2012,110(1-4):111-126

Sediment provenance analysis remains a powerful method for testing hypotheses on the temporal and spatial evolution of uplifted source regions, but issues such as recycling, nonunique sources, and pre- and post-depositional modifications may complicate interpretation of results from individual provenance techniques. Convergent retroarc systems commonly contain sediment sources that are sufficiently diverse (continental magmatic arc, fold–thrust belt, and stable craton) to enable explicit provenance assessments. In this paper, we combine detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology, heavy mineral identification, Nd isotopic analyses, conventional sandstone petrography, and paleocurrent measurements to reconstruct the clastic provenance history of a long-lived sedimentary basin now exposed in an intermontane zone of the northern Andean hinterland of Colombia. The Middle Magdalena Valley basin, situated between the Central Cordillera and Eastern Cordillera, contains a 5–10 km-thick succession of Upper Cretaceous to Quaternary fill. The integrated techniques show a pronounced change in provenance during the Paleocene transition from the lower to upper Lisama Formation. We interpret this as a shift from an eastern cratonic source to a western Andean source composed of magmatic-arc rocks uplifted during initial shortening of the Central Cordillera. The appearance of detrital chloritoid and a shift to more negative ε_Nd(t=0) values in middle Eocene strata of the middle La Paz Formation are attributed to shortening-related exhumation of a continental basement block (La Cira–Infantas paleohigh), now buried, along the axis of the Magdalena Valley. The diverse provenance proxies also show distinct changes during middle to late Eocene deposition of the Esmeraldas Formation that likely reflect initial rock uplift and exhumation of the fold–thrust belt defining the Eastern Cordillera. Upsection, detrital zircon U–Pb ages and heavy mineral assemblages for Oligocene and younger clastic deposits indicate that the Mesozoic sedimentary cover of the Eastern Cordillera was recycled during continued Cenozoic shortening. Our multidisciplinary provenance study refines the tectonic history of the Colombian Andes and demonstrates that uncertainties related to sediment recycling, nonunique sources, source heterogeneity, and climate in interpreting provenance data can be minimized via an integrated approach.  相似文献   

Flow-based coarsening for multiscale simulation of transport in porous media     

Vera Louise Hauge  Knut-Andreas Lie  Jostein R. Natvig 《Computational Geosciences》2012,16(2):391-408

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Sources and behavior of arsenic and trace elements in groundwater and surface water in the Poopó Lake Basin,Bolivian Altiplano     

Oswaldo Eduardo Ramos Ramos  Luis Fernando Cáceres  Mauricio Rodolfo Ormachea Muñoz  Prosun Bhattacharya  Israel Quino  Jorge Quintanilla  Ondra Sracek  Roger Thunvik  Jochen Bundschuh  Maria Eugenia García 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(3):793-807

Water management in semiarid and arid catchments such as the Poopó Lake Basin requires improved understanding of the complex behavior of the various contaminants, which affect the drinking water quality and considered as crucial for sustainable development of the region. Mechanisms of arsenic (As) release in the surface and groundwater were studied. Hydrochemical data for surface water (4 samples) and groundwater (28 samples) were collected in a small watershed in the Poopó catchment at the highland of the Bolivian Andes (Altiplano). All of them show high electrical conductivity values and moderately oxidizing conditions. The surface water contains high concentration of sulfate and the trace elements As, Zn and Pb in the zone affected by acid mine drainage. There is a large variability of the concentration of As and of the trace elements in the groundwater in the five different regions within the Poopó catchment. The metal concentrations sensitive to changes of redox state and results of speciation modeling suggest that As (V) is a predominant aqueous species, which conforms to the prevailing oxidizing conditions in the shallow groundwater environment. Two generalized trends for As distribution were identified in groundwater: (a) high concentrations are found in the arid zone (100–250 μg/L) in the southern (region III) and in the northwestern (region V) regions, and (b) low concentrations (<50 μg/L) are found in the remaining part of the basin (region I, II and IV). However, the spatial distribution within these regions needs to be investigated further. A conclusion from the present study is that there are multiple sources of As as well as other trace elements (such as Cd, Mn and Zn) in the Poopó Lake Basin. Among the sources and the processes which led to the mobility of As and other trace metals in the region are: (a) weathering of sulfide minerals, (b) oxidation of pyrite and/or arsenopyrite in mineralized areas and (c) desorption from hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) surfaces. In non-mining areas, volcanic ash is suggested to be a significant source of As.  相似文献