Decadal prediction skill in the GEOS-5 forecast system     

Yoo-Geun Ham  Michele M. Rienecker  Max J. Suarez  Yury Vikhliaev  Bin Zhao  Jelena Marshak  Guillaume Vernieres  Siegfried D. Schubert 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):1-20

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS-5 Atmosphere–Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO’s atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 % improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.  相似文献   

The Community Economic Impacts of Large Wildfires: A Case Study from Trinity County,California     

Emily Jane Davis  Cassandra Moseley  Max Nielsen-Pincus  Pamela J. Jakes 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(9):983-993

Wildfires are increasing in severity and frequency in the American West, but there is limited understanding of their economic effects at the community level. We conducted a case study of the impacts of large wildfires in 2008 in Trinity County, California, by examining labor market, suppression spending, and qualitative interview data. We found that the 2008 fires had interrelated effects on several economic sectors in the county. Labor market data indicated a decrease in total private-sector employment and wages and an increase in public-sector employment and wages during the summer of 2008 compared to the previous year, while interviews captured more nuanced impacts for individual businesses.  相似文献   

Near‐surface temperatures and heat balance of bare outcrops exposed to solar radiation     

Yann Gunzburger  Véronique Merrien‐Soukatchoff 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(12):1577-1589

Subsurface temperatures in rocks naturally fluctuate under the influence of local meteorological conditions. These fluctuations play a role in mechanical weathering, thus creating the environmental conditions conducive to natural hazards such as rockfalls and providing important sediment source terms for landscape evolution. However, the physics that control heat penetration into rocks are not fully understood, which makes the underground thermal state difficult to interpret when temperature measurements are available and even more difficult to estimate for unmonitored sites. This is an important lacuna given possible impacts of future climate change on mechanical weathering processes. The natural daily variations of subsurface temperatures were investigated on a bare gneiss outcrop exposed to solar radiation, where temperatures at various depths (up to 50 cm), as well as the solar radiation reaching a pyranometer, were monitored hourly for several months. This detailed times series of thermal data was used to gain insight into the heat balance at the inclined free surface of the rock mass. Attention was focused on two major contributors to the heat balance; the heat flux entering the rock mass through conduction and the incoming shortwave (solar) radiation. A Fourier decomposition of the temperature measurements provided an estimate of the in situ thermal conductivity of the rock and was used to calculate the conductive term. The shortwave radiation term was determined on the basis of the pyranometer measurements adjusted to account for the angle of incidence of the sun. It is shown that, throughout clear‐sky periods, heat exchanges at the surface are mainly controlled by direct solar radiation during the day, and by a roughly constant outgoing heat flux during the night. Subsurface temperatures can be reliably estimated with a semi‐infinite medium model whose boundary condition is derived from an analytical insolation model that takes atmospheric attenuation into account. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Das südliche Rheintal an der Zeitwende von Rhät und Lias     

Max Pfannenstiel 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1932,23(1):38-56

Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献   

The large-scale polarization of the microwave foreground     

Anglica de Oliveira-Costa  Max Tegmark  Christopher O&#x;Dell  Brian Keating  Peter Timbie  George Efstathiou  George Smoot 《New Astronomy Reviews》2003,47(11-12):1117

Most of the useful information about inflationary gravitational waves and reionization is on large angular scales where Galactic foreground contamination is the worst, so a key challenge is to model, quantify and remove polarized foregrounds. We use the Leiden radio surveys to quantify the polarized synchrotron radiation at large angular scales, which is likely to be the most challenging polarized contaminant for the WMAP satellite. We find that the synchrotron E- and B-contributions are equal to within 10% from 408–820 MHz with a hint of E-domination at higher frequencies. We quantify Faraday rotation and depolarization effects and show that they cause the synchrotron polarization percentage to drop both towards lower frequencies and towards lower multipoles.  相似文献   

Interstellar transfer of planetary microbiota   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Max K. Wallis  N. C. Wickramasinghe 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,348(1):52-61

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[O iii]/[N ii] as an abundance indicator at high redshift     

Max Pettini  Bernard E. J. Pagel 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,348(3):L59-L63

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Chemostatanlage zur kontinuierlichen Kultur von Algen   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Max Von Hirsburnner 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1981,43(2):370-376

The apparatus described was assembled using relatively inexpensive parts and makes the cultivation of various forms of algae under steady-state conditions and different flowrates (variation under 0.5%) possible. There was no difference in the biodensity in the reactor compared to that in the outflow.  相似文献   

Spatially coherent oscillations in microwave bursts     

Arie Kattenberg  Max Kuperus 《Solar physics》1983,85(1):185-190

Solar microwave burst observations (made with the WSRT) with high time and high spatial resolution show large-scale (> 8000 km) short-period (1.5 s) modulations of the source. It is argued that an interpretation in terms of Alfvén oscillations in the microwave source is ruled out by this observation. Instead it must be the source of the fast electrons, that produce the microwaves, that is oscillating. The fluctuating acceleration region is identified with a volume where a sheared field is compressed against a flux tube by an unstable current. MHD oscillations in the overlying fluxtube are caused by the pushing force. The rapidly expanding current plays a major role in the flare theory of van Tend and Kuperus (1978).  相似文献   

Near-infrared spectra of laboratory H₂O-CH₄ ice mixtures     

Max P. Bernstein  Dale P. Cruikshank  Scott A. Sandford 《Icarus》2006,181(1):302-308

We present 1.25-19 μm infrared spectra of pure solid CH₄ and H₂O/CH₄=87, 20, and 3 solid mixtures at temperatures from 15 to 150 K. We compare and contrast the absorptions of CH₄ in solid H₂O with those of pure CH₄. Changes in selected peak positions, profiles, and relative strength with temperature are presented, and absolute strengths for absorptions of CH₄ in solid H₂O are estimated. Using the two largest (ν₃+ν₄) and (ν₁+ν₄) near-IR absorptions of CH₄ at 2.324 and 2.377 μm (4303 and 4207 cm⁻¹), respectively, as examples, we show that peaks of CH₄ in solid H₂O are at slightly shorter wavelength (higher frequency) and broader than those of pure solid CH₄. With increasing temperature, these peaks shift to higher frequency and become increasingly broad, but this trend is reversible on re-cooling, even though the phase transitions of H₂O are irreversible. It is to be hoped that these observations of changes in the positions, profiles, and relative intensities of CH₄ absorptions with concentration and temperature will be of use in understanding spectra of icy outer Solar System bodies.  相似文献