1986年2月4日太阳耀斑的演化研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

肖速民  丁有济  M.J.Hagyard  J.B.Smith Jr 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1988,(4)

本文根据乌鲁木齐天文站的H_α耀斑及3.2cm射电流量观侧资料、云南天文台的黑子精细结构照相和Marshall Space Flight Center的向量磁场图,对1986年2月4日的六个耀斑的形态相关及演化联系,特别是0736UT 4B/3X大耀斑的发展过程进行了综合分析。主要结果是: 1.4日大耀斑的初始亮点和闪光相的主要形态演化,与活动区中沿中性线新浮现的强大电流/磁环系密切相关。后者的主要标志是沿中性线的长的剪切半影纤维及它两端的偶极旋涡黑子群(1_3F_3)。 2.上述大耀斑与1972年8月4日0624 UT大耀斑爆发的磁场背景及主要形态特征相似,表明两者的储能和触发机制可能相同。 3.大耀斑爆发的H_α初始亮点,双带出现,环系形成,亮物质抛射和吸收冕珥等现象同3.2cm射电流量的变化在时间上有较好的对应关系。 4.重复性的前期小耀斑爆发位置和发展趋势与大耀斑的主要形态及演化特征相似。它们相对于剪切的纵场中性线两侧的位置相近或相同。因而,可以看作上述强大电流/磁环系不稳性发展过程中的前置小爆发。  相似文献   

OH超脉泽源的模型与统计分析     

汪鲸  郑兴武  彭云楼 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1992,(4)

本文提出OH超脉泽源的一个具体模型,在该模型中OH超脉泽源由非饱和的球型子源组成.在此估算出超脉泽星系致密射电核的尺度和连续谱亮温度,以及OH源距星系核的最小非饱和距离.计算表明,OH超脉泽源所包含的子源数目可能相当大.R_H～log ρ_(25μm)/ρ_(60μm)图、log L_(OH)/L_(IR)～log ρ_(25μm)/ρ_(60μm)图和其它结果显示,有一部分OH超脉泽源很可能是弱饱和的,本文对此作了解释.  相似文献   

月际地震趋势的数值预测法   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

黎令仪  刘德富  康春丽  韩延本 《地震学报》2004,26(5):529-532

考虑到目前地震月趋势以模糊用语进行预测的缺陷,本文提出采用数值预测法能更好地适应社会需求. 这种方法是基于地震有自律现象,通过建立非线性的数学模型予以实现的. 模型试验结果表明,我国大陆地震活动存在有7~8个月左右的循环结构,逐月比较预测与实况的震级误差平均低于0.2级,因而该方法比经验性预报更适宜社会的实际利用.   相似文献   

Simulations of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model of the Beijing Climate Center   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

DONG Min  WU Tongwen  WANG Zaizhi  ZHANG Fang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(5):571-583

The performance of BCC (Beijing Climate Center) AGCM 2.0.1 (Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.0.1) in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TIO) is examined in this paper.The simulations are validated against observation and compared with the NCAR CAM3 (Community Atmosphere Model version 3) results.The BCC AGCM2.0.1 is developed based on the original BCC AGCM (version 1) and NCAR CAM3.New reference atmosphere and reference pressure are introduced into the model.Therefore,the origi...  相似文献   

What Kind of Initial Errors Cause the Severest Prediction Uncertainty of El Nino in Zebiak-Cane Model     

XU Huiand DUAN Wansuo State Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences  Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 《大气科学进展》2008,(4)

With the Zebiak-Cane(ZC)model,the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP).The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model.By analyzing the behavior of CNOP- type errors,we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak El Nino events in the ZC model,the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP.For the relatively strong El Nino events,the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities.Also,our results suggest that the error growth of El Nino in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO.The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth.The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most diffcult.A linear singular vector(LSV)approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO,but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model.This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes.CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty.That is to say,the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error.This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation.It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill.  相似文献   

西北地区东部冰雹云的卫星光谱特征和遥感监测模型   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

张杰  张强  康凤琴  何金梅 《高原气象》2004,23(6):743-748

根据气象台站的冰雹观测记录,针对冰雹灾害多发的西北地区东部,选取2001—2004年间14次NOAA卫星过境的AVHRR资料,共88个样本数,对冰雹云和其他云的光谱特征进行对比分析。结果表明,雹云的热红外亮度温度的变化基本在245K以下,中红外波段反射率相对较低,基本变化在0.4及以下范围,可见光和近红外波段反射率>0.6。冰雹产生的两个重要条件是高的云光学厚度和大的云粒子有效半径共同发生的区域;西北地区冰雹发生的云顶高度基本在4.5～7km之间。根据雹云的光谱特征,确定雹暴指数及其模型阈值>0.35的冰雹监测方法,多普勒雷达回波和气象站观测结果说明,雹暴指数等多参数结合判别冰雹云效果显著。  相似文献   

Classification of 24 New Ordinary Chondrites from the Grove Mountains, Antarctica   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

LU Ren  MIAO Bingkui  WANG Guiqing  DAI Deqiu  LIN Yangting  OUYANG Ziyuan  LI Chunlai Institute of Geochemistry  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Guiyang  Guizhou  Graduate School  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing Institute of Geology  Geophysics  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Guangzhou  Guangdong National Astronomical Observatories  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing 《《地质学报》英文版》2004,78(5):1052-1059

Petrography and mineral chemistry of 24 ordinary chondrites from the Grove Mountains, Antarctica, have been studied in order to identify their chemical-petrographic types. These samples were selected from a total of 4448 Grove Mountains (GRV) meteorites collected during the 19th Chinese Antarctic Research Expedition so as to make an estimation of the large GRV meteorite collection. The chemical-petrographic types of these meteorites are presented below: 1 H3,2 H4, 4 H5, 2 H6, 1 L4, 7 L5, 5 L6, 1 LL4 and 1 LL6. The new data weaken the previous report that unequilibrated ordinary chondrites are unusually abundant in the Grove Mountains region. However, this work confirms significant differences in distribution patterns of chemical-petrographic types between the Grove Mountains and other  相似文献   

Distribution Characteristics of Effective Source Rocks and Their Control on Hydrocarbon Accumulation: A Case Study from the Dongying Sag, Eastern China   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

ZHU Guangyou  JIN Qiang  ZHANG Shuichang  DAI Jinxing  ZHANG Linye  LI Jian Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration  Development  China National Petroleum Corporation  Beijing  E-mail: zhugy Faculty of Geo-resource  Information  University of Petroleum  Dongying  Shandong Geo-science Academy in Shengli Oil Fiel  Dongying  Shandong 《《地质学报》英文版》2004,78(6):1275-1288

The exploration conducted in the Bohai Bay basin, eastern China has demonstrated that the abundant petroleum resources have close affinities to the hydrocarbon kitchen with rich organic matter. A number of oil-generating associations with various characteristics of organic geochemistry and assemblages of multiple reservoir facies are developed due to the multi-center sedimentation, multi-source supply and multi-cycle evolution of filling, which have resulted in the formation of multiple oil and gas accumulation zones of various layers and trap styles. Among them the Paleogene Shahejie Formation is the most important hydrocarbon accumulation combination in the Dongying sag. Heretofore, its proved reserve has reached nearly 1.8×109t, which accounts for more than 90% of the total proved reserves of the Dongying sag. Based on previous studies, more than 600 source rock samples and 186 crude oil samples of the Shahejie Formation, collected from 30 oilfields, have been treated with organic geochemical testing  相似文献   

我国海岛旅游发展与生态环境耦合协调评价与影响因素研究     

李梦程  王成新  薛明月  秦伟山 《世界地理研究》2021,30(5):1048-1060

海岛旅游发展与生态环境协调是实现人海关系可持续发展的基础。选取中国12个海岛县（市、区）作为研究区,首先基于CSAED模型和PSR模型分别构建了旅游发展水平和生态环境质量评价指标体系,并借助BP神经网络模型测算其2018年旅游发展水平与生态环境质量,同时引入耦合协调模型对旅游发展与生态环境的协调程度进行定量评价,最后运用地理加权回归模型探究影响其协调发展的因素。结果表明：①我国12个海岛旅游发展与生态环境的协调程度整体上有待提升,多处于勉强协调状态。②我国12个海岛中75%的海岛旅游发展的速度还未超越生态环境的承载力,但其协调程度低,其不协调的发展状态将会导致旅游的发展超越生态环境的承载力。③旅游吸引力和生态脆弱压力对海岛旅游与生态环境的协调发展影响显著,旅游吸引力与协调程度呈负向影响,空间上旅游吸引力对协调程度的影响自南向北逐渐减弱;生态脆弱压力与耦合协调程度呈正向影响,空间上生态脆弱压力对协调程度的影响自南向北逐渐增强。  相似文献   

A preliminary report on the recent eruptions of Hibok-Hibok volcano,Camiguin Island,Philippines     

Philippine Geodetic  Geophysical Institute 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1952,12(1):215-225

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