Estimating australian forest fire danger under conditions of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations     

Tom Beer  Allyson Williams 《Climatic change》1995,29(2):169-188

The most appropriate indices with which to quantify Australian bushfire danger are the McArthur fire danger meters. These meters use meteorological information to produce a fire danger index that is directly related to the chance of a fire starting - and to the severity of a fire once it has started. The Mark 5 forest-fire danger meter uses air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, plus a drought factor that is calculated using daily rainfall and temperature information.Three years of daily data generated from the CSIRO four-level general circulation model, and thirty years of daily data generated from the CSIRO nine-level model were used to estimate the daily McArthur forest fire danger index for simulations corresponding to present conditions, and to those corresponding to doubled atmospheric CO₂. The performance of these models with respect to fire danger was tested by comparing the fire danger index for Sale (in the Eastern part of Victoria, South-eastern Australia) calculated from analysis of daily climatological data with the modelled annual cumulative forest fire danger index for the grid point that was representative of Sale. Data from both models for all Australian grid points were also examined. Both models predict an increase in fire danger over much of Australia for their doubled CO₂ scenarios.The results from the models confirm that annually averaged daily relative humidity is the single most important variable in the estimation of forest fire danger on an annual basis, yet the models tend to produce relative humidities that are slightly too low so that the fire danger is overestimated. A simple one-box model of evaporation indicates that the value of relative humidity to be expected under an altered climatic regime depends on the modelled relation between actual and potential evaporation, the present values of relative humidity and evaporation rate, as well as on the expected changes in wind speed.  相似文献   

Non-stationary random seismic responses of non-uniform beams     

Jiahao Lin  Guizhen Song  Yong Sun  F. W. Williams 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1995,14(4)

In this paper, a direct Ritz method is presented for analysing the responses of non-uniform shear beams subjected to the action of an evolutionary random seismic excitation. Because of the use of a pseudo ground acceleration, time-dependent random responses can conveniently be calculated by solving a set of deterministic equations of motion. These responses include power spectral densities, variances and higher spectral moments of any required responses of the beam. A non-uniform beam example was solved and the time-dependent variances and second spectral moments of both the beam-top displacement and the beam-base shear force are given to show the simplicity and effectiveness of the method, which can also easily be applied to other continuous elastic structures.  相似文献   

Geomagnetic secular variation from recent lake sediments,ancient fireplaces and historical measurements in southeastern Australia     

C.E. Barton  Mike Barbetti 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1982,59(2):375-387

Compilations of historical observations, archaeomagnetic data from ancient fireplaces and palaemagetic results from short cores of sediment from lakes in southeastern Australia, particularly Lake Keilambete, provide a detailed record of the geomagnetic secular variation during the last 3000 years. The independent sets of data are in good agreement if the radiocarbon time scale for the lacustrine record is about 450 years too old. The error is attributed to systematic incorporation of ancient carbon into the lake floor sediments, mainly through erosion of sediment on the crater walls at times of low water level. A significant lag between deposition and the acquisition of stable magnetic remanence is ruled out. Inclination has been abnormally steep during the last 500 years but remained fairly close to the axial dipole field value prior to that. During the last 1000 years the predominant sense of looping of the magnetic vector corresponds to westward drift of the nondipole field. Secular variations on a time scale of ～ 100 years can be resolved by the lacustrine record.  相似文献   

Field observations of stratified atmospheric flow above an obstacle     

C. C. Van Valin  R. F. Pueschel  E. W. Barrett  G. M. Williams 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1982,24(3):331-343

In a study using the plume from the Four Corners power plant, near Farmington, N.M., lee waves were observed during times when the plume flowed across the Hogback. Wavelengths were typically about 1.2 km; wave amplitudes were more variable, ranging from 20 to 100 m. The observed amplitudes imply an obstacle that is broader and shallower than is actually the case. This is in agreement with laboratory studies that show the existence of regions of complex flow both upstream and downstream from an obstacle, which have the effect of broadening the region over which laminar flow occurs. Visual observation, measurement of the plume cross-sectional area both upstream and downstream from the Hogback, and measurement of plume aerosol concentrations show that turbulent and eddy flow over and downwind from the Hogback increase the rate of mixing of the plume with the surrounding atmosphere. This in turn increases the rate at which plume components come into contact with the ground.  相似文献   

Strontium-calcium ratios in Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera     

David W. Graham  Michael L. Bender  Douglas F. Williams  Lloyd D. Keigwin 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1982,46(7):1281-1292

The $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio and other parameters have been measured in fossil planktonic foraminifera from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins in order to evaluate the $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio of seawater during the last 75 million years. Results on well-preserved samples indicate that the ratio has increased to its present value by 10–15% during the Cenozoic, and that minima occurred between 55-45 Ma and 10-5 Ma, when the ratio was 15–25% less than at present. The long-term increase may reflect either decreasing deposition of aragonite with a high $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$ ratio in shallow seas, or decreasing seafloor spreading rates and consequently decreasing hydrothermal supply of Ca during the Cenozoic. Other geologic evidence suggests that the Eocene minimum (near 50 Ma) may have resulted from increased aragonite sedimentation, while the Late Miocene minimum (between 10-5 Ma) may have been caused by an increased rate of seawater-basalt exchange when seafloor spreading rates increased on the East Pacific Rise near 10 Ma.  相似文献   

Report on the inaugural meeting of the Canadian Tectonics Group held on 16–18 October 1981 at the University of New Brunswick,Fredericton     

Paul F. Williams 《Journal of Structural Geology》1982,4(2):231-235

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Vertical sedimentation units in a barrier island washover fan     

S. P. Leatherman  A. T. Williams 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1983,8(2):141-150

Overwash is a major component of a barrier island's response to high energy conditions. Examination of the 19-20 March, 1975, storm deposits at Assateague Island, showed that an overwash sequence could be divided into sedimentation units. Interpretation depends upon defining textural and mineralogical combinations that can be logically ordered as a vertical sequence. If the sequence is depositional and formed from a single material, normal grading usually results; if polymineralogical and erosionally truncated, inverse grading with a top layer of heavy minerals can be formed via an in situ sorting process dependent on disturbance depth and overwash influence.  相似文献   

A generalised one-dimensional kinematic catchment model     

W. G. Field  B. J. Williams 《Journal of Hydrology》1983,60(1-4):25-42

A numerical model has been developed for the solution of the kinematic wave equation for a one-dimensional catchment, using the Lax-Wendroff technique. The model has been verified by comparing its solutions with some analytical solutions already available. Certain catchment parameters have been identified and the model applied with promising results to two actual catchments to ascertain their values.  相似文献   

Dynamic model of flotation cell banks — circuit analysis     

M.C. Williams  T.P. Meloy 《International Journal of Mineral Processing》1983,10(2):141-160

While all mineral industry flotation circuits are stable, they are sensitive to low-frequency perturbations in the feedrate. In both countercurrent and cocurrent circuits, the lead cell is more sensitive to feed variations. The frequency response predicts the amount of extra cell capacity needed to handle the maximum feed due to a sinusoidal forcing function. Feedback loops are more significant than sump delays. The countercurrent $\text{4 × 4}$ circuit floating quartz, with a 200-sec retention time, requires 75 minutes for the concentration of quartz in the input to the first cell to reach 95% of its steady-state value. Countercurrent circuits were found superior to cocurrent circuits in all respects.  相似文献   

J. E Andrews,P. Brimblecombe,T. D. Jickells,P. S. Liss and B. Reid: <Emphasis Type="Italic">An Introduction to Environmental Chemistry</Emphasis>, 2nd Edition,Blackwell Publishing Company,Oxford, UK, 2004, ISBN 0-632-05905 (paperback), £24.99     

J. Williams 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2005,50(1):101-102

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