Statistically downscaled probabilistic multi‐model ensemble projections of precipitation change in a watershed     

Muhammad Z. Hashmi  Asaad Y. Shamseldin  Bruce W. Melville 《水文研究》2013,27(7):1021-1032

This paper presents the development of a probabilistic multi‐model ensemble of statistically downscaled future projections of precipitation of a watershed in New Zealand. Climate change research based on the point estimates of a single model is considered less reliable for decision making, and multiple realizations of a single model or outputs from multiple models are often preferred for such purposes. Similarly, a probabilistic approach is preferable over deterministic point estimates. In the area of statistical downscaling, no single technique is considered a universal solution. This is due to the fact that each of these techniques has some weaknesses, owing to its basic working principles. Moreover, watershed scale precipitation downscaling is quite challenging and is more prone to uncertainty issues than downscaling of other climatological variables. So, multi‐model statistical downscaling studies based on a probabilistic approach are required. In the current paper, results from the three well‐reputed statistical downscaling methods are used to develop a Bayesian weighted multi‐model ensemble. The three members of the downscaling ensemble of this study belong to the following three broad categories of statistical downscaling methods: (1) multiple linear regression, (2) multiple non‐linear regression, and (3) stochastic weather generator. The results obtained in this study show that the new strategy adopted here is promising because of many advantages it offers, e.g. it combines the outputs of multiple statistical downscaling methods, provides probabilistic downscaled climate change projections and enables the quantification of uncertainty in these projections. This will encourage any future attempts for combining the results of multiple statistical downscaling methods. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Nutrient and metal accumulation in a freshwater tidal marsh     

Humaira Khan  Grace S. Brush 《Estuaries and Coasts》1994,17(2):345-360

Stratigraphic records from sediment cores collected in a freshwater tidal marsh and in the estuary upstream and downstream from the marsh were used to determine the accumulation of nutrients and trace metals over long time periods. Analysis of pollen and seeds show that the high marsh has formed only within the past 100 yr, following increased sedimentation rates in the area. Variations in nutrient and trace metal accumulations over several decades show that pollutants from agricultural runoff and wastewater discharge are stored to a greater extent in high-marsh than in low-marsh sediments. Greater accumulation rates in the high marsh are probably related to its greater sedimentary organic carbon concentration.  相似文献   

Species Composition and Some Ecological Notes on Diatom Communities of a Lotic Environment in Tarhunãh,Libya Artenzusammensetzung und einige ökologische Notizen über Diatomeengesellschaften eines lotischen Biotops in Tarhunãh/Libyen     

M. A. Khan 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1994,22(1):28-31

Libya occupies a large part of the Sahara Desert, and is a predominantly arid country with extremely scarce freshwaters. Despite aridity, a distinct higher rainfall zone exists along its mediterranean coastal belt. A lotic environment (perennial stream) in Ain-Scersciara, Tarhunãh in northwest Libya was studied for the species composition of diatom communities and their ecological characteristics. The waters are generally alkaline (pH = 7.5) and of hard-water (conductivity = 2008 μS/cm) type. The epiphytic diatom growth on benthic filamentous algae was high (32 taxa) with Amphora veneta as a very common taxon. Gomphonema parvulum var. micropus was an important taxon found in scrapings from the leaves of macrophytes and stony substratum. Nitzschia and Navicula showed high species richness (9 taxa in each) followed by Gomphonema (6 taxa). The ecological attributes of the majority of taxa show an oligohalobe status and alkaliphilous indicator.  相似文献   

Studies on Limnobiotic Conditions in a Thermal Spring at Tajura, (Tripoli), Libya     

M. A. Khan 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1989,17(4):401-405

Summary: Studies on a hot spring at Tajura (Libya) indicated narrow fluctuations in water temperature (43 … 44.5 °C) near the source site. A wide thermal gradient of 10 K between two sampling sites (near the source and in the marsh) recorded in December narrowed to 3 … 4.5 K in March. Similar pH values (6.7) near the source increased along the runoff channel and touched 6.9 in the marsh. Bicarbonate alkalinity always exceeded 400 mg/l; likewise conductivity was remarkably high (>4700 μS/cm). Scarce algal growth was observed near the source site, though mats of variable thickness prevailed along the runoff channel and in the marsh.  相似文献   

巴基斯坦卡拉奇─海得拉巴区域地震危险性预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Shahid A. Khan 《地震研究》1995,(3)

本文讨论了巴基斯坦的地震构造，潜在震源和历史与现代地震活动性，并在此基础上使用确定性和概率性两种方法计算了各发震断层５０年内最大可能的地震在卡拉奇和海得拉巴两城市将引起的地面峰值加速度以及５０年内超越概率为１４％的等加速度区划图。  相似文献   

Precambrian phosphorites in the Bijawar rocks of Hirapur-Bassia areas,sagar district,madhya pradesh,India     

D. M. Banerjee  M. W. Y. Khan  Neeta Srivastava  G. C. Saigal 《Mineralium Deposita》1982,17(3):349-362

The Precambrian phosphorites of Bijawar Group of rocks show characteristics of a epicontinental sea with restricted and very shallow marine environment of formation along some shoals, which existed during the iron-rich Precambrian times. These phosphorite deposits located in the Hirapur-Bassia areas show extensive leaching of carbonate and phosphate minerals during episodes of weathering. X-ray diffraction studies indicated that carbonate-flourapatite is the major apatitic phase in these phosphorites while crandallite developed on the surface outcrops. There is a general tendency for the depletion of CO₂ in these apatites leading to formation of flourapatite. This CO₂ is an indicator of hidden weathering in the rocks. Major and trace element determinations of phosphorite have been used to indicate various correlation factors responsible for the concentration of elements in these Precambrian leached phosphorites.The paper is a contribution to the aims and objectives of IGCP Project 156The paper is dedicated to Prof. Dr. R. C. Misra, who as a teacher and guide had been a source of inspiration to the senior author for the last two decades  相似文献   

Accuracy of the earth's gravity field models     

M.A. Khan 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1983,31(3):231-240

Accuracy tests on the most recent GEM (Goddard Earth Model) gravity models for the representation of the Earth's gravity field, using specially devised statistical techniques of comparative evaluation, show that there is steady improvement in these models with time. On this comparative basis, the accuracy of determination for the spherical harmonic coefficients of the Earth's gravity field is ～ 100% for n = 2–6, 90–99% for n = 7–10, 55–80% for n = 11–14 and ? 50% for n ? 15, deteriorating rapidly with increasing n. The higher degree coefficients corresponding to n ≥ 15 do not seem to be determined accurately enough to be useful from a geophysical standpoint, though their cumulative contribution is undoubtedly useful for specific orbital computations. The estimated errors are 0.3 mGal for n = 2–6, 1.5 mgal for the frequency range n = 2–10, 3 mGal for n = 2–14 and 5–6 mGal for n = 2–22. These error estimates, especially the ones for the higher frequency range, may have been affected by possible errors in the comparison standards used for this evaluation. Consequently, some of the higher degree coefficients of recent GEM models may be more accurate than predicted by these tests.Due to the inherent deficiency of the comparison standards, the errors given in this paper should be treated as error estimates. The steady and progressive improvement, shown by the various GEM gravity models when tested against comparison standards 10E and WGS 72, i.e. the more recent a gravity model, the better it tests against the comparison standards in contrast to its predecessors, is remarkable, as the comparison standards themselves are several years older than the gravity models tested here. This clearly validates our choice of comparison standards, as well as the premises and predictions of our evaluation techniques. It also demonstrates the power and potential of these techniques, which only seem to be limited by the level of accuracy of the available standard of comparison.  相似文献   

Levels of organochlorine pesticide residues in some organs of the Ganges perch, Lates calcarifer, from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Estuary, Bangladesh     

Jabber SA  Khan YS  Rahman MS 《Marine pollution bulletin》2001,42(12):1291-1296

Levels of organochlorine pesticide residues (p,p′ DDT, DDD, DDE, Aldrin, Dieldrin, Lindane, Heptachlor and BHC) were analysed in the dry and wet seasons in four organs (muscle, liver, gut and egg samples) of Ganges Perch, Lates calcarifer, collected during October–November–December, 1996 and May–June–July, 1997 from the Ganges–Brahmaputtra–Meghna estuary. The residues were analysed by using gas-chromatography (GC) in electron capture detector (ECD) mode and were verified by thin layer chromatography (TLC). Among the four organs analysed, the residues were found in the order egg > gut > muscle > liver. The pesticide residues were found in the order ∑DDT > Heptachlor >Dieldrin > Aldrin. Higher levels of residues were found during the dry season due to high lipid content in fishes. A positive correlation was observed between the pesticide residues (∑DDT and ∑OCs) and lipid contents of fish, and the correlation was found to be linear. The concentrations of pesticide residues in muscle, liver and gut were below the FAO/WHO (1993) recommended permissible limit except in eggs.  相似文献   

Growth, ionic and osmotic relations of an Allenrolfea occidentalis population in an inland salt playa of the Great Basin Desert     

Bilquees Gul  Darrell J. Weber  M. Ajmal Khan 《Journal of Arid Environments》2001,48(4):445

Variation in growth, physiology and ionic relations patterns of Allenrolfea occidentalis, a perennial halophyte of dry habitats, was studied under field conditions from May 1996 to November 1997. An A. occidentalis community has a characteristic soil pH of 7·3–8·3. During the two years, the population was exposed to great variations in soil salinity, from 29 to 146 dS m⁻¹, and soil moisture, ranging from drought (9·2%) to wet (19%). The salt concentrations were significantly higher in the surface soil layers than in the subsurface layers. Seasonal changes in dry weight are directly related to soil salinity stress. Allenrolfea occidentalis had greater growth and biomass production under saline conditions. Na⁺and Cl⁻ions were accumulated in plant tissues in much greater amounts than K⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺. Soil salinities were significantly reduced at the end of the growing season. Water potentials of the shoots decreased significantly with increasing salinity. The plant (F_v/F_mratio) was more affected by salinity and irradiation levels during the summer period.  相似文献   

Wave propagation through ionospheric plasma in presence of time-varying random irregularities     

R. M. Khan  S. S. De 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1970,83(1):31-37

Summary The dielectric tensor of a time-varying anisotropic electron-plasma has been studied with the consideration of the effect of collision. The tripple splitting of the electromagnetic waves is obtained from the dispersion relation which gives the two usual magnetoionic modes in the limiting case. The randomness of electron number density has been evaluated by the help of field variables and also by the nature of fluctuation of dielectric tensor.  相似文献