Reducing model complexity for explanation and prediction   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

A. Brad Murray   《Geomorphology》2007,90(3-4):178

Numerical models can be useful for explaining poorly understood phenomena or for reliable quantitative predictions. When modeling a multi-scale system, a ‘top-down’ approach—basing models on emergent variables and interactions, rather than explicitly on the much faster and smaller scale processes that give rise to them—facilitates both goals. Parameterizations representing emergent interactions range from highly simplified and abstracted to more quantitatively accurate. Empirically based large-scale parameterizations lead more reliably to accurate large-scale behavior than do parameterizations of much smaller scale processes. Conversely, purposefully simplified representations of model interactions can enhance a model's utility for explanation, clarifying the key feedbacks leading to an enigmatic behavior. For such potential insights to be relevant, the interactions in the model need to correspond to those in the ‘real’ system in some straightforward way. Such a correspondence usually holds for models constructed for predictive purposes, although this is not a requirement. The goals motivating a modeling endeavor help determine the most appropriate modeling strategies, as well as the most appropriate criteria for judging model usefulness.  相似文献   

Characterizing groundwater flow in a faulted karst system using optical brighteners from septic systems as tracers     

K. E. Murray  D. R. Straud  W. W. Hammond 《Environmental Geology》2007,53(4):769-776

This study used optical brighteners (OB) released from septic systems to show that groundwater flow direction is largely controlled by the structural framework in a faulted karst groundwater system. Effective protection of groundwater resources requires that groundwater systems are adequately characterized and source water protection areas (SWPA) are developed for drinking water wells. Karst aquifers are among the most sensitive to contamination due to high recharge rates, and among the most difficult aquifers to characterize due to heterogeneity, and anisotropy. Because septic systems may be used to treat wastewater within SWPAs for karst aquifers there is a need to characterize these groundwater systems using tracers. The objective of this study was to characterize groundwater flow in a faulted portion of the Edwards aquifer in Bexar County, Texas using OB that are released as incidental tracers from septic systems. This study included measurement of water levels, sampling of groundwater and surface water, analysis for OB, and spatial analysis in a GIS. Results show that OB intensities were highest to the southwest of the septic area, a direction that is sub-parallel to the fault and fracture orientation and nearly perpendicular to the hydraulic gradient. This indicates that movement of OB, solutes, or non-aqueous liquids/solids in a faulted karst system can be largely controlled by fault/fracture orientation and structural relay ramps.  相似文献   

多条人工地震测深剖面资料联合反演首都圈三维地壳结构   总被引：14，自引：11，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文

李松林  张先康  宋占隆  石金虎  邓宏钊  杨健  张成科  任青芳 《地球物理学报》2001,44(3):360-368,T001

为了对多条二维剖面资料进行统一分析和解释,本文考虑了各剖面交点处的约束条件,通过建立统一的偏导矩阵,将各剖面资料联立求解.利用该方法对中国地震局地球物理勘探中心在首都圈内6条人工地震宽角反射/折射剖面资料进行了重新处理和解释,得到该地区的地壳三维速度结构和构造特征.在此基础上,结合其他地球物理研究成果,确定了壳内存在的4处低速层（体）的空间范围及断裂的走向.  相似文献   

Dilemmas of development in Oceania: the political economy of the Tongan agro-export sector     

Donovan Storey  & Warwick E. Murray 《The Geographical journal》2001,167(4):291-304

This article critically engages with the recent diffusion of the orthodox development model in Oceania and highlights some evolving dilemmas. In particular, it explores the social, economic and ecological tensions arising from economic reforms that are exacerbating the fragility of already vulnerable nation-states and communities. In order to illustrate its arguments, a case study of the impacts of agro-export growth in Tonga is presented. Attention is drawn to the socially inequitable and ecologically unsustainable outcomes of rapid growth in this sector. In analyzing the political economy of the squash pumpkin sector, the authors point to the important role that culture plays in mediating and conditioning development outcomes. Reflecting on the Tongan case, it is argued that to better understand the implications of orthodox developmental reform in the region, research must seek to more explicitly incorporate distributional and ethical analysis.  相似文献   

封河预报数学模型研究   总被引：2，自引：6，他引：2  

可素娟  张学成  王玉明 《冰川冻土》2001,23(3):328-332

分析了河冰水力学、封河机理及影响封河的因素，并根据封河机理和影响封河的因素，建立了封河预报数学模型，以黄河内蒙古河段为例，率定封河预报数学模型的函数形式进行检验，证明预报模型精度高且使用方便。  相似文献   

A structured method of landscape assessment and countryside management     

Alan Cooper  Ronald Murray 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》1992,12(4)

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B. Guinot et C. A. Murray 《Journal of Geodesy》1961,59(1):7-22

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The termination of the last major phase of aeolian sand movement,coastal dunefields,Denmark     

Lars B. Clemmensen  Andrew Murray 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2006,31(7):795-808

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sand samples from stabilized (or inactive) coastal dunes in Denmark provides information on the age of the termination phase of the last major aeolian activity period. A total of 26 sand samples were taken from four different coastal dunefields around the North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat coasts of Denmark. The OSL dates indicate that the last major phase of aeolian activity terminated between ad 1860 and 1905. Most of the dunes examined in this study were active around 1820, during a period documented to have been very stormy. A dune management scheme started around 1792, and this no doubt was a major cause of dunefield stabilization, but an overall decline of storminess, particularly spring and summer storminess, around the end of the 19th century must also have contributed to the increasing inactivity of coastal dunes. The new OSL dates on aeolian sand movement agree well with historical data and data from topographic maps on dune movement. This agreement supports the observation from earlier work that OSL dating of recent aeolian sand movement is accurate over the last few decades to centuries. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于TM影像的南京市土地利用遥感动态监测   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

曹雪  柯长青 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2006,31(11):958-961

基于南京市1988年和1998年两期TM影像，首先用辐射水准归一化法将1998年影像校正到1988年影像的辐射水平上，再经过几何校正、训练区纯化等预处理，对两期影像分别用最大似然法进行分类，然后在Arc／Info的GRID模块中编写AML语言，对得到的两期土地利用分类图进行叠置运算，提取出土地利用动态变化信息。分析结果表明，10a间南京市耕地面积大量减少，林地面积有所增加。  相似文献   

Wavelet filter analysis of splitting and coupling of seismic normal modes below 1.5 mHz with superconducting gravimeter records after the December 26, 2004 Sumatra earthquake     

Jacques Hinderer 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2006,49(12):1259-1269

New generation superconducting gravimeters (SGs), which have been demonstrated to be better than the best seismometers STS-1 at frequencies below 1 mHz, can be accepted as the quietest vertical seismometers for observation of long-period earth free oscillations. Wavelet filtering with narrow band-pass frequency response as shown in this paper is very helpful in removing at- mospheric pressure effects from on gravity records in long-period seismic mode frequency bands. The processing of high quality SG records after the great Sumatra earthquake (Dec. 26, 2004) with wavelet filtering leads to clear observations of all coupled toroidal modes below 1.5 mHz except these for 0T5, 0T7 and 1T1; moreover 1T2 and 1T3 are, for the first time, unambiguously revealed in the vertical components of the free oscillations. The three well-resolved splitting singlets of overtones 2S1 are observed from a single SG record for the first time.  相似文献