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61.
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An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
A simulation analysis was carried out using the InfoCrop-rice model to quantify impacts and adaptation gains, as well as to identify vulnerable regions for irrigated and rain fed rice cultivation in future climates in India. Climates in A1b, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios as per a global climate model (MIROC3.2.HI) and a regional climate model (PRECIS) were considered for the study. On an aggregated scale, the mean of all emission scenarios indicate that climate change is likely to reduce irrigated rice yields by ~4 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ~7 % in 2050 (2040–2069), and by ~10 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios. On the other hand, rainfed rice yields in India are likely to be reduced by ~6 % in the 2020 scenario, but in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios they are projected to decrease only marginally (<2.5 %). However, spatial variations exist for the magnitude of the impact, with some regions likely to be affected more than others. Adaptation strategies comprising agronomical management can offset negative impacts in the near future—particularly in rainfed conditions—but in the longer run, developing suitable varieties coupled with improved and efficient crop husbandry will become essential. For irrigated rice crop, genotypic and agronomic improvements will become crucial; while for rainfed conditions, improved management and additional fertilizers will be needed. Basically climate change is likely to exhibit three types of impacts on rice crop: i) regions that are adversely affected by climate change can gain in net productivity with adaptation; ii) regions that are adversely affected will still remain vulnerable despite adaptation gains; and iii) rainfed regions (with currently low rainfall) that are likely to gain due to increase in rainfall can further benefit by adaptation. Regions falling in the vulnerable category even after suggested adaptation to climate change will require more intensive, specific and innovative adaptation options. The present analysis indicates the possibility of substantial improvement in yields with efficient utilization of inputs and adoption of improved varieties.  相似文献   
63.
Time series data on cropping pattern at disaggregated level were analysed and its implications on geospatial drought assessment were demonstrated. An index of Cropping Pattern Dissimilarity (CP-DI) between a pair of years, developed in this study, proved that the cropping pattern of a year has a higher degree of similarity with that of recent past years only and tends to be dissimilar with longer time difference. The temporal divergence in cropping pattern has direct implications on geospatial approach of drought assessment, in which, time series NDVI data are compared for drought interpretation. It was found that, seasonal NDVI profiles of drought year and normal year did not show any anomaly when the cropping patterns were dissimilar and two normal years having dissimilar cropping pattern showed different NDVI profiles. Therefore, it is suggested that such temporal comparisons of NDVI are better restricted to recent past years to achieve more objective interpretation.  相似文献   
64.
Crustal thickness and Poisson’s ratios are estimated across the northwest (NW) Himalaya and eastern Ladakh applying H-k stacking method on receiver functions of teleseismic earthquakes recorded at 16 broadband seismological stations. The results show significant lateral variation of crustal thickness from the Lesser and Higher Himalaya (~50 km thick) to Ladakh (~80 km thick) through the Indus Tsangpo Suture Zone (ITSZ). The Indian Moho is continuously traceable across the ITSZ which is consistent with the underthrusting of the Indian plate beyond the surface collision boundary. The estimated Poisson’s ratios in the Lesser and Higher Himalaya are low (0.249–0.253), suggesting felsic composition of the crust. The Poisson’s ratio is intermediate in the Tethyan Himalaya (0.269–0.273) and high beneath Ladakh (0.280–0.303), indicating the effect of aqueous fluid/partial melt present in the crust.  相似文献   
65.
The opening of cracks and influx of fluids in the dilatancy zone of impending earthquake is expected to induce short-term changes in physical/chemical/hydrological properties during earthquake build-up cycle, which should be reflected in time-varying geophysical fields. With this rationale, eleven geophysical parameters are being recorded in continuous mode at the Multi-Parametric Geophysical Observatory (MPGO), in Ghuttu, Garhwal Himalaya, for earthquake precursory research. The critical analysis of various geophysical time series indicates anomalous behavior at few occasions; however, the data is also influenced by many external forces. These external influences are the major deterrent for the isolation of precursory signals. The recent work is focused on the data adoptive techniques to estimate and eliminate effects of solar-terrestrial and hydrological/environmental factors for delimiting the data to identify short-term precursors. Although any significant earthquake is not reported close to the observatory, some weak precursory signals and coseismic changes have been identified in few parameters related to the occurrence of moderate and strong earthquakes.  相似文献   
66.
This study has examined the temporal variation in monthly, seasonal annual precipitation over the Western Himalayan Region(WHR) and the influence of global teleconnections, like the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and Southern Oscillation(SO) Indices on seasonal annual precipitation. The Mann–Kendall non-parametric test is applied for trend detection and the Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test is used to detect possible shift. Maximum entropy spectral analysis is applied to find the periodicity in annual seasonal precipitation. The study shows a non-significant decreasing trend in annual precipitation over WHR for the period 1857-2006. However, in seasonal precipitation, a significant decreasing trend is observed in monsoon and a significant increasing trend in post-monsoon season during the same period. The significant decrease in monsoon precipitation may be due to weakening of its teleconnection with NAO as well as SO Indices mainly during last three decades. It is observed that the probable change of year in annual monsoon precipitation over WHR is 1979. The study also shows significant periodicities of 2.3-2.9 years and of 3.9-4.7 years in annual seasonal precipitation over WHR.  相似文献   
67.
A toppled structure with sliding in the Siwalik Hills, midwestern Nepal   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Not only the high mountainous regions but also the southern hilly regions of Nepal frequently suffer from landslides and debris flows. An interesting toppled structure with sliding was distinguished on an excavated slope facing the major highway in one such region, the Siwalik Hills. These hills are mostly composed of alternating beds of sandstones and mudstones of the Siwalik Group. A distinct contrast in the direction of dip of the strata was recognized on the excavated slope; the strata in the upper portion of the slope dipped southward, whereas those of the foot slope dipped northward. This indicated that toppling of strata had occurred. The northward direction of toppling and the angle and axis of rotation of the block were determined by examining the distribution of the attitudes of the strata.

Steeply dipping strata influenced by southward thrusting along the major tectonic line, contrasting rigidity between sandstone and mudstone, and rapid dissection by a river were the major causes of the toppling. The bottom surface of the toppled part dipped gently not only northward but also partially westward, showing that the toppled block slid westward after toppling. Evidence for tension cracking and scarplets on the top slope indicated that the block was still actively sliding.

Because steeply dipping sandstone and mudstone strata are widely distributed in the Siwalik Hills, similar structures are inferred to exist in many places. Therefore, the investigation of such slope structures is important, and their instability must be evaluated before road construction and excavation projects are carried out in Nepal.  相似文献   

68.
The attenuation characteristics of the Kinnaur area of the North West Himalayas were studied using local earthquakes that occurred during 2008–2009. Most of the analyzed events are from the vicinity of the Panjal Thrust (PT) and South Tibetan Detachment Thrust, which are well-defined tectonic discontinuities in the Himalayas. The frequency-dependent attenuation of P and S waves was estimated using the extended coda normalization method. Data from 64 local earthquakes recorded at 10 broadband stations were used. The coda normalization of the spectral amplitudes of P and S waves was done at central frequencies of 1.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12 Hz. Q p increases from about 58 at 1.5 Hz to 706 at 12 Hz, and Q s increases from 105 at 1.5 Hz to 1,207 at 12 Hz. The results show that the quality factors for both P and S waves (Q p and Q s) increase as a function of frequency according to the relation Q?=?Q o f n , where Q o is the corresponding Q value at 1 Hz frequency and “n” is the frequency relation parameter. We obtained Q p?=?(47?±?2)f (1.04±0.04) and Q s?=?(86?±?4)f (0.96±0.03) by fitting power law dependency model for the estimated values of the entire study region. The Q 0 and n values show that the region is seismically very active and the crust is highly heterogeneous. There was no systematic variation of values of Q p and Q s at different frequencies from one tectonic unit to another. As a consequence, average values of these parameters were obtained for each frequency for the entire region, and these were used for interpretation and for comparison with worldwide data. Q p values lie within the range of values observed for some tectonically active regions of the world, whereas Q s values were the lowest among the values compared for different parts of the world. Q s/Q p values were >1 for the entire range of frequencies studied. All these factors indicate that the crust is highly heterogeneous in the study region. The high Q s/Q p values also indicate that the region is partially saturated with fluids.  相似文献   
69.
70.
International Journal of Earth Sciences - Strong-motion records of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake (M w 7.8), its strong aftershocks and seismic events of Hindu kush region have been analysed for...  相似文献   
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