Extreme events,trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)     

Barbara J. Benson  John J. Magnuson  Olaf P. Jensen  Virginia M. Card  Glenn Hodgkins  Johanna Korhonen  David M. Livingstone  Kenton M. Stewart  Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer  Nick G. Granin 《Climatic change》2012,112(2):299-323

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.  相似文献   

Depleted subcontinental lithospheric mantle and its tholeiitic melt metasomatism beneath NE termination of the Eger Rift (Europe): the case study of the Steinberg (Upper Lusatia,SE Germany) xenoliths     

Anna Kukuła  Jacek Puziewicz  Magdalena Matusiak-Małek  Theodoros Ntaflos  Jörg Büchner  Olaf Tietz 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2015,109(6):761-787

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Water balance estimation under the challenge of data scarcity in a hyperarid to Mediterranean region          下载免费PDF全文

Agnes Sachse  Christian Fischer  Jonathan B. Laronne  Hanna Hennig  Amer Marei  Olaf Kolditz  Tino Rödiger 《水文研究》2017,31(13):2395-2411

Water budget analyses are important for the evaluation of the water resources in semiarid and arid regions. The lack of observed data is the major obstacle for hydrological modelling in arid regions. The aim of this study is the analysis and calculation of the natural water resources of the Western Dead Sea subsurface catchment, one which is highly sensitive to rainfall resulting in highly variable temporal and spatial groundwater recharge. We focus on the subsurface catchment and subsequently apply the findings to a large‐scale groundwater flow model to estimate the groundwater discharge to the Dead Sea. We apply a semidistributed hydrological model (J2000g), originally developed for the Mediterranean, to the hyperarid region of the Western Dead Sea catchment, where runoff data and meteorological records are sparsely available. The challenge is to simulate the water budget, where the localized nature of extreme rainstorms together with sparse runoff data results in few observed runoff and recharge events. To overcome the scarcity of climate input data, we enhance the database with mean monthly rainfall data. The rainfall data of 2 satellites are shown to be unsuitable to fill the missing rainfall data due to underrepresentation of the steep hydrological gradient and temporal resolution. Hydrological models need to be calibrated against measured values; hence, the absence of adequate data can be problematic. Therefore, our calibration approach is based on a nested strategy of diverse observations. We calculate a direct surface runoff of the Western Dead Sea surface area (1,801 km²) of 3.4 mm/a and an average recharge (36.7 mm/a) for the 3,816 km² subsurface drainage basin of the Cretaceous aquifer system.  相似文献   

Non-isothermal flow in low permeable porous media: a comparison of Richards’ and two-phase flow approaches   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Wenqing Wang  Jonny Rutqvist  Uwe-Jens Görke  Jens T. Birkholzer  Olaf Kolditz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,62(6):1197-1207

The present work compares the performance of two alternative flow models for the simulation of thermal-hydraulic coupled processes in low permeable porous media: non-isothermal Richards’ and two-phase flow concepts. Both models take vaporization processes into account: however, the Richards’ model neglects dynamic pressure variations and bulk flow of the gaseous phase. For the comparison of the two approaches first published, data from a laboratory experiment are studied involving thermally driven moisture flow in a partially saturated bentonite sample. Then a benchmark test of longer-term thermal-hydraulic behavior in the engineered barrier system of a geological nuclear waste repository is analyzed (DECOVALEX project). It was found that both models can be used to reproduce the vaporization process if the intrinsic permeability is relative high. However, when a thermal-hydraulic coupled problem has the same low intrinsic permeability, only the two-phase flow approach provides reasonable results.  相似文献   

Succession and seasonal onset of colonization in subtidal hard‐bottom communities off northern Chile     

Aldo S. Pacheco  Jürgen Laudien  Martin Thiel  Marcelo Oliva  Olaf Heilmayer 《Marine Ecology》2011,32(1):75-87

Although there is extensive information concerning the colonization sequences of benthic communities, little is known about the successional development of subtidal hard‐bottom habitats in highly productive coastal upwelling areas. In these systems, succession is predicted to be fast due to high growth rate of the later dominant colonizers. Using artificial hard substrata a field experiment was conducted in a rocky subtidal area off Northern Chile (Humboldt Current System) and monitored at 3‐month intervals to test the following hypotheses: (i) epibenthic succession may proceed through consecutive replacement of species, (ii) there is a fast convergence rate towards natural communities, and (iii) different seasonal starting points for the colonization will produce different community structure over a 1‐year period of exposure. Panels were installed on a vertical wall at 17 m water depth. Three replicate panels were sampled every 3 months over a period of 27 months. As a reference, six haphazardly selected plots from the surrounding natural community were surveyed at each sampling date. To evaluate how seasonally varying substratum availability affects community development, further panels were exposed for a 12‐month period, starting in four different seasons (n = 3 replicates per season). Community succession was slow and occurred through progressive changes, between early encrusting red corallines, middle Balanus flosculus and late Lagenicella variabilis. After 27 months, the community composition, but not its structure, was similar between experimental and reference communities on surrounding rocky bottoms. Seasonality had no effects and after 1 year of exposure the experimental communities converged towards a common structure. This study indicates that succession of subtidal epibenthic communities follows a slow and predictable pattern with a dominant late colonial species. In addition, aseasonal variability might be more relevant during colonization and succession in this upwelling ecosystem.  相似文献   

Delamination of smectite in river-borne suspensions at the fluvial/marine interface – An experimental study     

Olaf Brockamp 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

Fine fractions (<2 μm) from smectite-rich flood-plain sediments from the Elbe and Weser rivers in Germany were treated in the laboratory with synthetic sea salt solutions at different concentrations and for different periods of time to document sheet delamination of smectite particles at the fluvial/marine interface and thus simulate changes in clay minerals at the mouth of a river. The project consisted of two steps: (1) Pilot tests were made in 0.5% salt solutions (brackish environment) showing a nearly 2-min delay of the clearing of the clayey suspensions, when the suspension was redispersed 15 and 30 min later after the first measurement. This was due to an obviously increased number of fine laminae from disintegrated smectite particles. (2) X-ray diffraction studies (XRD) of the clayey material from suspensions in 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, and 3.0% salt solutions after standing 10 min, and one and three weeks were made to document alteration reactions of smectite. An aliquot was pipetted periodically from each series, and oriented clay-mineral specimens were analyzed by XRD in air-dried, glycol- and glycerin-solvated states. The peak intensities in the XRD patterns of the clay minerals smectite, random-ordered mixed-layer illite/smectite (I–S), kaolinite, chlorite, and illite did not change in the salt-free series during the experiments. In contrast the peak intensities of smectite and I–S mineral in the air-dried and glycerin-solvated states after suspension in saline solutions decreased significantly. The d-values of the smectitic materials in the air-dried state also decreased after contact with the saline solutions, and in the glycerin-solvated state the full-width-at-half-maximum (FWHM) of the 001 smectite reflection increased by about 20%, indicating a reduction in grain size.  相似文献   

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector     

Hermann Held  Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe  Tobias Pardowitz  Joaquim G. Pinto  Uwe Ulbrich  Kai Born  Markus G. Donat  Melanie K. Karremann  Gregor C. Leckebusch  Patrick Ludwig  Katrin M. Nissen  Hermann Österle  Boris F. Prahl  Peter C. Werner  Daniel J. Befort  Olaf Burghoff 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):195-207

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.  相似文献   

New palynology-based astronomical and revised 40Ar/39Ar ages for the Eocene maar lake of Messel (Germany)     

Olaf K. Lenz  Volker Wilde  Dieter F. Mertz  Walter Riegel 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2015,104(3):873-889

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Complex hydrothermal alteration and illite K–Ar ages in Upper Visean molasse sediments and magmatic rocks of the Variscan Badenweiler-Lenzkirch suture zone,Black Forest,Germany     

Olaf Brockamp  Andreas Schlegel  Klaus Wemmer 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2015,104(3):683-702

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Interpolation of Steady-State Concentration Data by Inverse Modeling     

Ronnie L. Schwede  Olaf A. Cirpka 《Ground water》2010,48(4):569-579

In most groundwater applications, measurements of concentration are limited in number and sparsely distributed within the domain of interest. Therefore, interpolation techniques are needed to obtain most likely values of concentration at locations where no measurements are available. For further processing, for example, in environmental risk analysis, interpolated values should be given with uncertainty bounds, so that a geostatistical framework is preferable. Linear interpolation of steady-state concentration measurements is problematic because the dependence of concentration on the primary uncertain material property, the hydraulic conductivity field, is highly nonlinear, suggesting that the statistical interrelationship between concentration values at different points is also nonlinear. We suggest interpolating steady-state concentration measurements by conditioning an ensemble of the underlying log-conductivity field on the available hydrological data in a conditional Monte Carlo approach. Flow and transport simulations for each conditional conductivity field must meet the measurements within their given uncertainty. The ensemble of transport simulations based on the conditional log-conductivity fields yields conditional statistical distributions of concentration at points between observation points. This method implicitly meets physical bounds of concentration values and non-Gaussianity of their statistical distributions and obeys the nonlinearity of the underlying processes. We validate our method by artificial test cases and compare the results to kriging estimates assuming different conditional statistical distributions of concentration. Assuming a beta distribution in kriging leads to estimates of concentration with zero probability of concentrations below zero or above the maximal possible value; however, the concentrations are not forced to meet the advection-dispersion equation.  相似文献