Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling     

Amir Hossein Hakimhashemi  Jeoung Seok Yoon  Oliver Heidbach  Arno Zang  Gottfried Grünthal 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):671-680

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.  相似文献   

Quantifying rates and processes of landscape evolution     

Arjun M. Heimsath  Oliver Korup 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2012,37(2):249-251

  相似文献   

Compensatory mitigation in marine ecosystems: Which indicators for assessing the “no net loss” goal of ecosystem services and ecological functions?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Harold Levrel  Sylvain Pioch  Richard Spieler 《Marine Policy》2012

Recent years have seen increasing interest in the concepts of compensation and ecosystem services. Regulation systems in the United States dealing with environmental protection (Superfund Act, Oil Pollution Act, National Environment Policy Act, Clean Water Act, Endangered Species Act, etc.) require those responsible for damage to ecosystem services to compensate for it “physically” and restore these services for the benefit of the entire population. This article, using simple indicators of compensation identified in the literature, attempts to analyze what types of ecological compensation are adopted, how performance is assessed, how standards on ecological equivalencies are adopted, and what are the costs of this compensation. To perform this analysis, compensatory measures carried out during the last ten years in the case of coastal and marine ecosystems in Florida have been addressed. The results show that: analysis criteria for the equivalencies between ecosystem services lost due to damage and ecosystem services gained due to compensatory measures are questionable; most compensation monitoring is for a relatively brief period of time and the data obtained during this period may be insufficient for assessing the net effect of the compensatory measure; the weaknesses regarding criteria for the equivalencies and the uncertainty about the relevant time-scale can be counter-balanced by increasing the area of compensation, a problematic solution at best.  相似文献   

Seasonal temperatures for the past ∼400 years reconstructed from diatom and chironomid assemblages in a high-altitude lake (Lej da la Tscheppa,Switzerland)     

Lucien von Gunten  Oliver Heiri  Christian Bigler  Jacqueline van Leeuwen  Carlo Casty  André F. Lotter  Michael Sturm 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,39(3):283-299

We analysed a 42 cm long sediment record from Lej da la Tscheppa, a high-altitude lake (2,616 m a.s.l.) in the Upper Engadine valley (Switzerland) for subfossil diatoms, chironomids and pollen. The chronology of the top 21 cm of the record was established using ²¹⁰Pb analysis using a constant-rate-of-supply model, and validated with ¹³⁷Cs measurements and the content of spheroidal carbonaceous particles. A tentative chronology for the lower part of the core was obtained through extrapolation of the sedimentation rates in the uppermost part of the record. Pollen assemblages in the record reflect regional changes in forestation and land-use patterns in the Upper Engadine valley and show no evidence of significant local human activity in the lake’s catchment. Diatom assemblages record a distinct increase in planktonic taxa since the early 19th century, suggesting a decrease in the duration of ice-cover. In contrast, chironomid assemblages remained stable during a large part of the record. We applied an established chironomid-based July air temperature transfer function and a newly developed diatom-based spring air temperature transfer function to reconstruct past seasonal air temperature changes at Lej da la Tscheppa. The reconstructions indicate a diatom-inferred warming trend in spring temperatures during the past ca. 400 years, whereas chironomid-inferred summer temperatures suggest a slight cooling trend. These biota-based reconstructions are in good agreement with the centennial-scale temperature trend in an independent reconstruction of regional temperatures in the Upper Engadine region based on instrumental records and documentary proxy evidence from the Alps. Our results suggest that, in high-altitude lakes, independent chironomid- and diatom-based seasonal temperature reconstruction is possible and can be successfully used to track seasonal temperature trends.  相似文献   

500 years of trophic-state history of a hypertrophic Dutch dike-breach lake     

Emiliya P. Kirilova  Maarten van Hardenbroek  Oliver Heiri  Holger Cremer  André F. Lotter 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,43(4):829-842

We present a palaeolimnological study encompassing five centuries of trophic-state change of the dike-breach lake De Waay located on the Rhine-Meuse delta (the Netherlands). Diatom-inferred total phosphorus (TP) concentrations indicate hypertrophic epilimnetic conditions (>300 μg l⁻¹ TP) since the formation of the lake in the fifteenth century until the end of the eighteenth century. Cladocera data support the reconstructed trophic state and indicate turbid conditions in lake De Waay during this period. High inferred TP concentrations as well as the amount of Ti in the sediment reflect numerous flooding events. From the nineteenth century onwards reconstructed TP concentrations decreased to 40–150 μg l⁻¹ due to improvements in sewage and dike systems that considerably diminished direct river flooding and seepage-derived nutrients. As a consequence, the increased stability of littoral habitats led to an increased diversity of the Cladocera assemblages. The most significant decrease in TP concentrations to ~40 μg l⁻¹ occurred between about 1900 and 1930. This mesotrophic phase was a consequence of the isolation of the lake from catchment drainage and the introduction of a highly elaborate flood control during this period. However, since the mid twentieth century a eutrophication trend is preserved in the record, likely related to increased agricultural activity in the vicinity of the lake. Our results emphasize that land-use and trophic-state history must be taken into account when evaluating the ecological status of lakes for water management and protection actions, especially for lakes in landscapes that are strongly modified by human action.  相似文献   

Meteorology and oceanography of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean—a review of German achievements from the last decade     

Hartmut H. Hellmer  Monika Rhein  Günther Heinemann  Janna Abalichin  Wafa Abouchami  Oliver Baars  Ulrich Cubasch  Klaus Dethloff  Lars Ebner  Eberhard Fahrbach  Martin Frank  Gereon Gollan  Richard J. Greatbatch  Jens Grieger  Vladimir M. Gryanik  Micha Gryschka  Judith Hauck  Mario Hoppema  Oliver Huhn  Torsten Kanzow  Boris P. Koch  Gert König-Langlo  Ulrike Langematz  Gregor C. Leckebusch  Christof Lüpkes  Stephan Paul  Annette Rinke  Bjoern Rost  Michiel Rutgers van der Loeff  Michael Schröder  Gunther Seckmeyer  Torben Stichel  Volker Strass  Ralph Timmermann  Scarlett Trimborn  Uwe Ulbrich  Celia Venchiarutti  Ulrike Wacker  Sascha Willmes  Dieter Wolf-Gladrow 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(11):1379-1413

  相似文献   

Special Issue on Applications of Wavelets in the Geosciences     

Margaret A. Oliver 《Mathematical Geosciences》2009,41(6):609-610

  相似文献   

Benchmarking spatial joins a la carte     

Oliver Gunther  Philippe Picouet  Jean-Marc Saglio  Michel Scholl  Vincent Oria 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(7):639-655

Spatial joins are join operations that involve spatial data types and operators. Spatial access methods are often used to speed up the computation of spatial joins. This paper addresses the issue of benchmarking spatial join operations. For this purpose, we first present a WWW-based benchmark generator to produce sets of rectangles. Using a Web browser, experimenters can specify the number of rectangles in a sample, as well as the statistical distributions of their sizes, shapes, and locations. Second, using the generator and a well-defined set of statistical models we define several tests to compare the performance of three spatial join algorithms: nested loop, scan-and-index, and synchronized tree traversal. We also added two real-life data sets from the Sequoia 2000 storage benchmark. Our results show that the relative performance of the different techniques mainly depends on the selectivity factor of the join predicate. All of the statistical models and algorithms are available on the Web, which allows for easy verification and modification of our experiments.  相似文献   

Generalized LSG models with spatially varying Coriolis parameter     

Marcel Oliver  Sergiy Vasylkevych 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(3):259-276

In this paper, we derive and study approximate balance models for nearly geostrophic shallow water flow where the Coriolis parameter is permitted to vary across the domain as long as it remains nondegenerate. This situation includes, for example, the β-plane approximation to the shallow water equations at mid-latitudes. Our approach is based on changing configuration space coordinates in the underlying variational principle in such a way that consistent asymptotics in the transformed Lagrangian leads to a degenerate Lagrangian structure. In this paper, we restrict our attention to first-order models. We show that the resulting models can be formulated in terms of an advected potential vorticity with a nonlinear vorticity inversion relation. We study the associated solvability conditions and identify a subfamily of models for which these conditions are satisfied without additional restrictions on the data. Finally, we provide the link between our framework and the theory of constrained Hamiltonian systems.  相似文献   

A parcel formulation of Hamiltonian layer models     

O. Bokhove  M. Oliver 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(6):423-442

Starting from the three-dimensional hydrostatic primitive equations, we derive Hamiltonian N-layer models with isentropic tropospheric and isentropic or isothermal stratospheric layers. Our construction employs a new parcel Hamiltonian formulation which describes the fluid as a continuum of Hamiltonian ordinary differential equations bound together by integral transport laws. In particular, we show that this parcel Hamiltonian structure is compatible with the stacking of layers under isentropic or isothermal constraints. The appeal of the parcel formulation is the simplification of various calculations, in particular the derivation of the continuum Poisson bracket and the proof of the Jacobi identity. A comparison and connection is made between the Hamiltonian dynamics of fluid parcels and the Hamiltonian system of partial differential equations. The parcel formulation can be seen as a precursor and tool for the study of Hamiltonian numerical schemes.  相似文献