ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Timothy N. Stockdale  David L. T. Anderson  Magdalena A. Balmaseda  Francisco Doblas-Reyes  Laura Ferranti  Kristian Mogensen  Timothy N. Palmer  Franco Molteni  Frederic Vitart 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(3-4):455-471

The latest operational version of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system is described. It shows noticeably improved skill for sea surface temperature (SST) prediction compared with previous versions, particularly with respect to El Nino related variability. Substantial skill is shown for lead times up to 1?year, although at this range the spread in the ensemble forecast implies a loss of predictability large enough to account for most of the forecast error variance, suggesting only moderate scope for improving long range El Nino forecasts. At shorter ranges, particularly 3?C6?months, skill is still substantially below the model-estimated predictability limit. SST forecast skill is higher for more recent periods than earlier ones. Analysis shows that although various factors can affect scores in particular periods, the improvement from 1994 onwards seems to be robust, and is most plausibly due to improvements in the observing system made at that time. The improvement in forecast skill is most evident for 3-month forecasts starting in February, where predictions of NINO3.4 SST from 1994 to present have been almost without fault. It is argued that in situations where the impact of model error is small, the value of improved observational data can be seen most clearly. Significant skill is also shown in the equatorial Indian Ocean, although predictive skill in parts of the tropical Atlantic are relatively poor. SST forecast errors can be especially high in the Southern Ocean.  相似文献   

Physical and dynamical oceanography of Liverpool Bay   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jeffrey A. Polton  Matthew Robert Palmer  Michael John Howarth 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(9):1421-1439

The UK National Oceanography Centre has maintained an observatory in Liverpool Bay since August 2002. Over 8 years of observational measurements are used in conjunction with regional ocean modelling data to describe the physical and dynamical oceanography of Liverpool Bay and to validate the regional model, POLCOMS. Tidal dynamics and plume buoyancy govern the fate of the fresh water as it enters the sea, as well as the fate of its sediment, contaminants and nutrient loads. In this context, an overview and summary of Liverpool Bay tidal dynamics are presented. Freshwater forcing statistics are presented showing that on average the bay receives 233 m³ s^− 1. Though the region is salinity controlled, river input temperature is shown to significantly modulate the plume buoyancy with a seasonal cycle. Stratification strongly influences the region’s dynamics. Data from long-term moored instrumentation are used to analyse the stratification statistics that are representative of the region. It is shown that for 65% of tidal cycles, the region alternates between being vertically mixed and stratified. Plume dynamics are diagnosed from the model and are presented for the region. The spring–neap modulation of the plume’s westward extent, between 3.5 °W and 4°W, is highlighted. The rapid eastward erosion of the plume during spring tides is identified as a potentially important freshwater mixing mechanism. Novel climatological maps of temperature, salinity and density from the CTD surveys are presented and used to validate numerical simulations. The model is found to be sensitive to the freshwater forcing rates, temperature and salinities. The existing CTD survey grid is shown to not extend sufficiently near the coast to capture the near coastal and vertically mixed component the plume. Instead the survey grid captures the westward spreading, shallow and transient, portion of the plume. This transient plume feature is shown in both the long-term averaged model and observational data as a band of stratified fluid stretching between the mouth of the Mersey towards the Isle of Man. Finally the residual circulation is discussed. Long-term moored ADCP data are favourably compared with model data, showing the general northward flow of surface water and southward trajectory of bottom water.  相似文献   

Fluid–rock interaction in the Qitianling granite and associated tin deposits, South China: Evidence from boron and oxygen isotopes     

Kui-Dong Zhao  Shao-Yong Jiang  Eizo Nakamura  Takuya Moriguti  Martin R. Palmer  Shui-Yuan Yang  Bao-Zhang Dai  Yao-Hui Jiang 《Ore Geology Reviews》2011,43(1):243-248

The behavior of boron and its isotopes in fluid-dominant processes and hydrothermal alteration of granites is examined using fresh and altered granite samples from the Qitianling granite and associated hydrothermal tin deposits in South China. Boron concentrations are highest in the fresh granite (37 ppm) and depleted as a result of two stages of fluid mobility and fluid–rock interaction within the granite. Constraints provided both by δ¹¹B and δ¹⁸O data suggest that the first stage was related to exsolution of aqueous fluids from the granite magma at a temperature of > 450 °C. This was followed by further boron depletion in the granite by hydrothermal circulation of meteoric water at lower temperatures (~ 350 °C) and low water/rock ratios. The sensitivity of coupled boron and oxygen isotope systematics to these processes suggests that they can provide valuable constraints on of fluid mobility in granite and associated mineralization.  相似文献   

Plant and mycorrhizal driven silicate weathering: Quantifying carbon flux and mineral weathering processes at the laboratory mesocosm scale     

M.Y. Andrews  J.R. Leake  B.G. Palmer  S.A. Banwart  D.J. Beerling 《Applied Geochemistry》2011

The rise of vascular land plants in the Paleozoic is hypothesized to have driven lower atmospheric CO₂ levels through enhanced weathering of Ca and Mg bearing silicate minerals and rocks. However, this view overlooks the co-evolution of roots and mycorrhizal fungi, with many of the weathering processes ascribed to plants potentially being driven by the combined activities of roots and fungi. Here mesocosm scale controlled laboratory experiments quantifying the effects of plant and fungal evolution on silicate rock weathering under ambient and elevated CO₂ concentrations are described. A snapshot is presented of C allocation through roots and mycorrhizal fungi and biological activity associated with geochemical changes in weathered mineral substrates via transfer of elements from solid phases into solution.  相似文献   

Evaluation of infiltration‐based stormwater management to restore hydrological processes in urban headwater streams          下载免费PDF全文

Rosemary Fanelli  Karen Prestegaard  Margaret Palmer 《水文研究》2017,31(19):3306-3319

Urbanization threatens headwater stream ecosystems globally. Watershed restoration practices, such as infiltration‐based stormwater management, are implemented to mitigate the detrimental effects of urbanization on aquatic ecosystems. However, their effectiveness for restoring hydrologic processes and watershed storage remains poorly understood. Our study used a comparative hydrology approach to quantify the effects of urban watershed restoration on watershed hydrologic function in headwater streams within the Coastal Plain of Maryland, USA. We selected 11 headwater streams that spanned an urbanization–restoration gradient (4 forested, 4 urban‐degraded, and 3 urban‐degraded) to evaluate changes in watershed hydrologic function from both urbanization and watershed restoration. Discrete discharge and continuous, high‐frequency rainfall‐stage monitoring were conducted in each watershed. These datasets were used to develop 6 hydrologic metrics describing changes in watershed storage, flowpath connectivity, or the resultant stream flow regime. The hydrological effects of urbanization were clearly observed in all metrics, but only 1 of the 3 restored watersheds exhibited partially restored hydrologic function. At this site, a larger minimum runoff threshold was observed relative to the urban‐degraded watersheds, suggesting enhanced infiltration of stormwater runoff within the restoration structure. However, baseflow in the stream draining this watershed remained low compared to the forested reference streams, suggesting that enhanced infiltration of stormwater runoff did not recharge subsurface storage zones contributing to stream baseflow. The highly variable responses among the 3 restored watersheds were likely due to the spatial heterogeneity of urban development, including the level of impervious cover and extent of the storm sewer network. This study yielded important knowledge on how restoration strategies, such as infiltration‐based stormwater management, modulated—or failed to modulate—hydrological processes affected by urbanization, which will help improve the design of future urban watershed management strategies. More broadly, we highlighted a multimetric approach that can be used to monitor the restoration of headwater stream ecosystems in disturbed landscapes.  相似文献   

Andesitic Plinian eruptions at Mt. Ruapehu: quantifying the uppermost limits of eruptive parameters     

Natalia Pardo  Shane Cronin  Alan Palmer  Jonathan Procter  Ian Smith 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(5):1161-1185

New tephro-stratigraphic studies of the Tongariro Volcanic Centre (TgVC) on the North Island (New Zealand) allowed reconstruction of some of the largest, andesitic, explosive eruptions of Mt. Ruapehu. Large eruptions were common in the Late Pleistocene, before a transition to strombolian-vulcanian and phreatomagmatic eruptive styles that have predominated over the past 10,000?years. Considering this is the most active volcano in North Island of New Zealand and the uppermost hazard limits are unknown, we identified and mapped the pyroclastic deposits corresponding to the five largest eruptions since ~27?ka. The selected eruptive units are also characterised by distinctive lithofacies associations correlated to different behaviours of the eruptive column. In addition, we clarify the source of the ~10–9.7?ka Pahoka Tephra, identified by previous authors as the product of one of the largest eruptions of the TgVC. The most common explosive eruptions taking place between ~13.6 and ~10?ka?cal?years BP involved strongly oscillating, partially collapsing eruptive columns up to 37?km high, at mass discharge rates up to 6?×?10⁸?kg/s and magnitudes of 4.9, ejecting minimum estimated volumes of 0.6?km³. Our results indicate that this volcano (as well as the neighbouring andesitic Mt. Tongariro) can generate Plinian eruptions similar in magnitude to the Chaitén 2008 and Askja 1875 events. Such eruptions would mainly produce pyroclastic fallout covering a minimum area of 1,700?km² ESE of the volcano, where important touristic, agricultural and military activities are based. As for the 1995/1996 eruption, our field data indicate that complex wind patterns were critical in controlling the dispersion of the eruptive clouds, developing sheared, commonly bilobate plumes.  相似文献   

Review of continental shelf marine geotechnics: Distribution of soils,measurement of properties,and environmental hazards     

Adrian F. Richards  Harold D. Palmer  Michael Perlow Jr. 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2013,31(1):33-67

Abstract

Sands and silty sands are the predominant surficial soils of continental shelves. Cohesive fine‐grained soils are typical off the mouths of large rivers, near bays and estuaries, and in basins located on the shelf. The stratigraphy of shelf soils is very poorly known for most engineering purposes, except in the vicinity of the Mississippi Delta.

Vibratory coring is the most common method of sampling shelf sands to depths of about 13 m; greater soil depths are sampled by borings often using drilling and wireline sampling tools. Employment of self‐contained or wireline static cone penetrometers to obtain in situ measurements of sands has not been as common in the United States as in Europe. Dynamic piston corers are the most common samplers in cohesive soils, but rotary and hydraulically activated incremental corers are becoming available for marine use. Self‐contained or wireline vane shear devices and static cone penetrometers are used for the in situ testing of cohesive soils, and the latter device is also used for cohesionless soils. Dynamic cone penetrometers have been developed and have had limited experimental use at sea. In situ electrical resistivity and nuclear‐transmission and backscatter probes have been used in cohesive soils to obtain bulk‐density and water‐content measurements and for stratigraphic correlation. Acoustical properties of cohesive and cohesionless soils have been measured by in situ probes and have been estimated from results of geophysical surveys made on ships that are under way.

Environmental hazards to the foundations of offshore structures include earthquakes, wave‐induced loading and scour, and burrowing animals. Reported bottom‐current velocities on the United States continental shelf appear to have maximums of about 0.5 m/s under fair‐weather conditions and greater than about 5 m/s under hurricane conditions. Cyclical loading of the seafloor induced by storm waves appears to be a major hazard to soil stability in some areas.

A representative sample of the widely scattered engineering and scientific literature of continental shelf marine geotechnics and geotechnically related subjects has been made to aid marine geologists, geotechnologists, and other specialists.  相似文献   

The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models     

M. Satoh  K. Oouchi  T. Nasuno  H. Taniguchi  Y. Yamada  H. Tomita  C. Kodama  J. Kinter  D. Achuthavarier  J. Manganello  B. Cash  T. Jung  T. Palmer  N. Wedi 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(9-10):2185-2206

Project Athena is an international collaboration testing the efficacy of high-resolution global climate models. We compare results from 7-km mesh experiments of the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and 10-km mesh experiments of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), focusing on the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) and its relationship with tropical cyclones (TC) among the boreal summer period (21 May–31 Aug) of 8?years (2001–2002, 2004–2009). In the first month of simulation, both models capture the intra-seasonal oscillatory behavior of the Indian monsoon similar to the observed boreal summer ISO in approximately half of the 8-year samples. The IFS simulates the NW–SE-oriented rainband and the westerly location better, while NICAM marginally reproduces mesoscale organized convective systems and better simulates the northward migration of the westerly peak and precipitation, particularly in 2006. The reproducibility of the evolution of MJO depends on the given year; IFS simulates the MJO signal well for 2002, while NICAM simulates it well for 2006. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that both models statistically reproduce MJO signals similar to observations, with slightly better phase speed reproduced by NICAM. Stronger TCs are simulated in NICAM than in IFS, and NICAM shows a wind-pressure relation for TCs closer to observations. TC cyclogenesis is active during MJO phases 3 and 4 in NICAM as in observations. The results show the potential of high-resolution global atmospheric models in reproducing some aspects of the relationship between MJO and TCs and the statistical behavior of TCs.  相似文献   

Verification for numerical modelling of jointed rock mass using thin layer elements     

K. L. Fishman  C. W. Derby  M. C. Palmer 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1991,15(1):61-70

Thin layer finite elements are employed to model the response of rock joints in finite element analyses of rock mechanics problems. The case of a circular opening embedded in a rock mass is investigated. Results are obtained for both solid and jointed rock masses, and the effects of the presence of joints on the stress and strain field are investigated. Results from the finite element analysis are verified with respect to measurements from physical modelling. It is shown that the comparison between measured and computed results is satisfactory and that the presence of joints has a pronounced effect on the stress and strain field as compared to that realized in the absence of any rock joints. This study provides valuable data which contribute to the verification of thin layer finite elements for modelling the response of rock joints.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject   总被引：16，自引：1，他引：16  

J. M. Slingo  K. R. Sperber  J. S. Boyle  J.-P. Ceron  M. Dix  B. Dugas  W. Ebisuzaki  J. Fyfe  D. Gregory  J.-F. Gueremy  J. Hack  A. Harzallah  P. Inness  A. Kitoh  W. K.-M. Lau  B. McAvaney  R. Madden  A. Matthews  T. N. Palmer  C.-K. Parkas  D. Randall  N. Renno 《Climate Dynamics》1996,12(5):325-357

  相似文献