Predicting human mobility with activity changes     

Wei Huang  Xintao Liu  Yifang Ban 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1569-1587

Human mobility patterns can provide valuable information in understanding the impact of human behavioral regularities in urban systems, usually with a specific focus on traffic prediction, public health or urban planning. While existing studies on human movement have placed huge emphasis on spatial location to predict where people go next, the time dimension component is usually being treated with oversimplification or even being neglected. Time dimension is crucial to understanding and detecting human activity changes, which play a negative role in prediction and thus may affect the predictive accuracy. This study aims to predict human movement from a spatio-temporal perspective by taking into account the impact of activity changes. We analyze and define changes of human activity and propose an algorithm to detect such changes, based on which a Markov chain model is used to predict human movement. The Microsoft GeoLife dataset is used to test our methodology, and the data of two selected users is used to evaluate the performance of the prediction. We compare the predictive accuracy (R²) derived from the data with and without implementing the activity change detection. The results show that the R² is improved from 0.295 to 0.762 for the user with obvious activity changes and from 0.965 to 0.971 for the user without obvious activity changes. The method proposed by this study improves the accuracy in analyzing and predicting human movement and lays the foundation for related urban studies.  相似文献   

海拉尔-塔木察格盆地中部断陷带构造演化与富油构造带成因机制分析          下载免费PDF全文

孙永河  史盼盼  杨帆  袁红旗  杨勉 《地质科学》2012,(3):700-713

海拉尔盆地和塔木察格盆地分属于中国和蒙古国,构造上具有统一的构造背景和成盆演化过程。为了整体剖析海拉尔-塔木察格盆地构造演化过程及其对油气运聚成藏的控制作用,本文在明确成盆背景基础上,立足中部断陷带,系统研究了盆地的沉积充填结构、盆地的性质及其叠加演化过程,进而分析了不同演化阶段富油构造带的形成机制及构造演化对油气成藏的控制作用。研究表明,海塔盆地分别由铜钵庙组构成的残留盆地和由南屯组-青元岗组构成的被动裂陷盆地两种不同性质盆地叠加而成,被动裂陷盆地可进一步划分为4个演化阶段,即南一段下、中亚段构成的初始裂陷演化阶段、南一段上亚段-南二段构成的强裂陷演化阶段、大磨拐河组-伊敏组构成的断坳转化演化阶段以及青元岗组构成的坳陷演化阶段。初始裂陷阶段简单剪切走滑变形控制形成的掀斜隆起带,为下部油气系统即南一段下亚段和中亚段的有利勘探方向; 强裂陷阶段的纯剪切伸展变形控制形成的中央隆起带和中央背斜带,为中部油气系统即南一段上亚段和南二段的有利勘探方向; 断坳转化阶段伊二、三沉积晚期的纯剪切张扭变形控制断裂密集带的形成,并指示下部和中部油气系统的油气运聚成藏及富集部位; 伊二、三段末期及坳陷演化阶段的挤压反转变形主要控制了多类型反转构造带的形成,并指示上部次生油气系统即大磨拐河组的油气调整聚集成藏及富集部位。  相似文献   

温度对发头裸腹溞(Moina irrasa)种群动态和两性生殖的影响     

张赛  邓道贵  李玉颖  孟小丽  任盼盼  雷娟  金显文 《湖泊科学》2011,23(3):479-482

在食物浓度为4×105 cells/ml栅藻的条件下,研究了4种温度(15、20、25、30～C)对发头裸腹溞种群动态及两性生殖的影响.结果表明,在4种温度下,发头裸腹涵种群密度在实验初期逐渐增大,达到密度最大值后呈现下降的趋势.随着温度的升高,发头裸腹溞成熟时间、首次产幼溞时间以及达到最大种群密度所需时间均缩短,但母...  相似文献   

霍山皖33井水位与"霍山窗"小震活动关系的初步研究     

孙盼盼  张军  刘泽民  陶月潮  李军辉 《华南地震》2011,31(2):79-85

分析了霍山皖33井水位变化与"霍山窗"地震活动的关系:首先采用差分法和从属函数等方法对水位数据进行处理,提取了水位的短期异常,结果表明该井水位异常对霍山以及周边地区的中小地震有较好的反映;其次,通过对该井水位与"霍山窗"小震活动性的对比研究,发现该地区小地震在水位低值时活跃.参考该地区的环境剪应力,我们认为霍山皖33井...  相似文献   

Long-term simulations of the sulfur concentrations over the China, Japan and Korea: A model comparison study     

Cheol-Hee Kim  Lim-Seok Chang  Jeong-Soo Kim  Fan Meng  Mizuo Kajino  Hiromasa Ueda  Yuanhang Zhang  Hye-Young Son  Youjiang He  Jun Xu  Keiichi Sato  Chang-Keun Song  Soo-Jin Ban  Tatsuya Sakurai  Zhiwei Han  Lei Duan  Suk-Jo Lee  Shang-Gyoo Shim  Young Sunwoo  Tae-Young Lee 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(4):399-411

Three comprehensive acid deposition models were used to simulate the sulfur concentrations over northeast Asia over the period covering entire year of 2002, and discussed the aggregated uncertainties and discrepancies of the three models. The participating models are from the countries participating in the project of Longrange Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia (LTP): China, Japan and Korea. The Eulerian Model-3/CMAQ (by China), Regional Air Quality Model (RAQM, by Japan), and Comprehensive Acid Deposition Model (CADM, by Korea) were employed by each country with common emissions data established by the administrative agencies of China, Japan and Korea. The episodic simulation results between 1 to 15, March 2002 are also presented, during which aircraft measurements were carried out over the Yellow sea. The episodic results show both a wide short-term variability in simulations against measurements, and maximum concentration differences of 3～5 times among the three models, requiring that further attention before confidence among the three models can be claimed for short-term simulations. However, the year-long cumulative simulations showed almost the same general features, with lower aggregated uncertainties between the three models, produced by the long term integration over northeast Asia.  相似文献   

Temperature trends in the skin/surface, mid-troposphere and low stratosphere near Korea from satellite and ground measurements     

Jung-Moon Yoo  Young-In Won  Young-Jun Cho  Myeong-Jae Jeong  Dong-Bin Shin  Suk-Jo Lee  Yu-Ri Lee  Soo-Min Oh  Soo-Jin Ban 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(5):439-455

Various types of satellite (AIRS/AMSU, MODIS) and ground measurements are used to analyze temperature trends in the four vertical layers (skin/surface, mid-troposphere, and low stratosphere) around the Korean Peninsula (123–132°E, 33–44°N) during the period from September 2002 to August 2010. The ground-based observations include 72 Surface Meteorological Stations (SMSs), 6 radiosonde stations (RAOBs), 457 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) over the land, and 5 buoy stations over the ocean. A strong warming (0.052 K yr^?1) at the surface, and a weak warming (0.004～0.010 K yr^?1) in the mid-troposphere and low stratosphere have been found from satellite data, leading to an unstable atmospheric layer. The AIRS/AMSU warming trend over the ocean surface around the Korean Peninsula is about 2.5 times greater than that over the land surface. The ground measurements from both SMS and AWS over the land surface of South Korea also show a warming of 0.043～0.082 K yr^?1, consistent with the satellite observations. The correlation average (r = 0.80) between MODIS skin temperature and ground measurement is significant. The correlations between AMSU and RAOB are very high (0.91～0.95) in the anomaly time series, calculated from the spatial averages of monthly mean temperature values. However, the warming found in the AMSU data is stronger than that from the RAOB at the surface. The opposite feature is present above the mid-troposphere, indicating that there is a systematic difference. Warming phenomena (0.012～0.078 K yr^?1) are observed from all three data sets (SMS, AWS, MODIS), which have been corroborated by the coincident measurements at five ground stations. However, it should also be noted that the observed trends are subject to large uncertainty as the corresponding 95% confidence intervals tend to be larger than the observed signals due to large thermal variability and the relatively short periods of the satellitebased temperature records. The EOF analysis of monthly mean temperature anomalies indicates that the tropospheric temperature variability near Korea is primarily linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and secondarily to ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). However, the low stratospheric temperature variability is mainly associated with Southern Oscillation and then additionally with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Uncertainties from the different spatial resolutions between satellite data are discussed in the trends.  相似文献   

索氏提取-液相色谱法测定土壤中邻苯二甲酸酯类物质   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

曹攽  马军  李云木子 《江苏地质》2011,35(1):73-77

采用索氏提取-固相萃取柱净化分离、高效液相色谱测定土壤中6种邻苯二甲酸酯类物质。利用正交试验对影响加标回收率的3个主要因素(萃取溶剂比例、萃取时间和萃取温度)进行了优化。方法回收率为95.3%～108.0%,相对标准偏差为0.83%～3.53%。并对实际土壤样品进行了测定。  相似文献   

Geochronological Records of Oil-Gas Accumulations in the Permian Reservoirs of the Northeastern Ordos Basin     

CHEN Gang  YANG Fu  LI Shuheng  ZHANG Huiruo  HU Yanxu  LEI Panpan 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(6):1701-1711

Geochronology of oil-gas accumulation （OGA） is a challenging subject of petroleum geology in multi-cycle superimposed basins.By K-Ar dating of authigenic illite （AI） and fluid inclusion （FI） analysis combined with apatite fission track （AFT） thermal modeling,a case study of constraining the OGA times of the Permian reservoirs in northeast Ordos basin （NOB） has been conducted in this paper.AI dating of the Permian oil-gas-bearing sandstone core-samples shows a wide time domain of 178-108 Ma.The distribution of the AI ages presents 2-stage primary OGA processes in the Permian reservoirs,which developed in the time domains of 175-155 Ma and 145-115 Ma with 2-peak ages of 165 Ma and 130 Ma,respectively.The FI temperature peaks of the samples and their projected ages on the AFT thermal path not only present two groups with a low and a high peak temperatures in ranges of 90-78℃ and 125-118℃,respectively corresponding to 2-stage primary OGA processes of 162-153 Ma and 140-128 Ma in the Permian reservoirs,but also appear a medium temperature group with the peak of 98℃ in agreement with a secondary OGA process of c.～30 Ma in the Upper Permian reservoirs.The integrated analysis of the AI and FI ages and the tectono-thermal evolution reveals that the Permian reservoirs in the NOB experienced at least 2-stage primary OGA processes of 165-153 Ma and 140-128 Ma in agreement with the subsidence thermal process of the Mid-Early Jurassic and the tectono-thermal event of the Early Cretaceous.Then,the Upper Permian reservoirs further experienced at least 1-stage secondary OGA process of c.～30 Ma in coincidence with a critical tectonic conversion between the slow and the rapid uplift processes from the Late Cretaceous to Neogene.  相似文献   

Temporal and spatial variations in the discharge and dissolved organic carbon of drip waters in Beijing Shihua Cave,China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Fengmei Ban  Genxing Pan  Jian Zhu  Binggui Cai  Ming Tan 《水文研究》2008,22(18):3749-3758

To detect the causal relationship between cave drip waters and stalagmite laminae, which have been used as a climate change proxy, three drip sites in Beijing Shihua Cave were monitored for discharge and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Drip discharges and DOC were determined at 0 to 14‐day intervals over the period 2004–2006. Drip discharges show two types of response to surface precipitation variations: (1) a rapid response; and (2) a time‐lagged response. Intra‐annual variability in drip discharge is significantly higher than inter‐annual variability. The content of DOC in all drip waters varies inter‐ and intra‐annually and has good correlation with drip water discharge at the rapid response sites. High DOC was observed in July and August in the three years observed. The flushing of soil organic matter is dependent upon the intensity of rain events. The DOC content of drip water increases sharply above a threshold rainfall intensity (>50 mm d^?1) and shows several pulses corresponding with intense rain events (>25 mm d^?1). The DOC content was lower and less variable during the dry period than during the rainy period. The shape of DOC peak also varies from year to year as it is influenced by the intensity and frequency of rainfall. The different drip sites show marked differences in DOC response, which are dominated by hydrological behaviour linked to the recharge of the soil and karst micro‐fissure/porosity network. The results explain why not all stalagmite laminae are consistent with climate changes and suggest that the structure of the rainy season events could be preserved in speleothems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A Social–Ecological Systems Approach to Assessing Conservation and Fisheries Outcomes in Fijian Locally Managed Marine Areas     

Stacy D. Jupiter  Graham Epstein  Natalie C. Ban  Sangeeta Mangubhai  Margaret Fox  Michael Cox 《社会与自然资源》2017,30(9):1096-1111

Locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) are often recommended as a strategy to achieve conservation and fisheries management, though few studies have evaluated their performance against these objectives. We assessed the effectiveness of eight periodically harvested closures (PHCs), the most common form of management within Fijian LMMAs, focusing on two outcomes: protection of resource units and biodiversity conservation. Of the eight PHCs, only one provided biodiversity benefits, whereas three were moderately successful in protecting resource units (targeted fish biomass). Protection of resource units was more likely when PHCs were harvested less frequently, less recently, and when total fish biomass in open areas was lower. Our findings further suggest that monitoring, enforcement, and clearly defined boundaries are critical, less frequent harvesting regimes are advised, and culturally appropriate management incentives are needed. Although PHCs have some potential to protect resource units, they are not recommended as a single strategy for broad-scale biodiversity conservation.  相似文献