Analysis of climatic trends in data from the agrometeorological station of Bologna-Cadriano, Italy (1952–2007)     

Philipp Matzneller  Francesca Ventura  Nicola Gaspari  Paola Rossi Pisa 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):717-731

Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change, as farming activities directly depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the extent of such change and of related phenomena will help to answer the questions posed by society about adaptation strategies. The global situation is well described by the Fourth IPCC assessment report (IPCC 2007), but local studies are important to understand the impact and the priorities to adopt in adaptation strategies. In this study a historical set of meteorological data, collected during the period 1952–2007 at the University of Bologna (Italy) agrometeorological station, was analysed. Several indexes, such as Frost Severity Index, number of hot days, number of rainy days, etc., were calculated, and their trends in time were analysed. The results show a scenario of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration, a decrease in rainy days and a deepening of the watertable. The effect of these changes on agriculture will be a decrease in water availability, an increase in heat stress in plants and an increase in drought risk.  相似文献   

Estimating black hole masses in quasars using broad optical and UV emission lines     

Paola Marziani  Jack W. Sulentic 《New Astronomy Reviews》2012,56(2-3):49-63

We review past work using broad emission lines as virial estimators of black hole masses in quasars. Basically one requires estimates of the emitting region radius and virial velocity dispersion to obtain black hole masses. The three major ways to estimate the broad-line emitting region (BLR) radius involve: (1) direct reverberation mapping, (2) derivation of BLR radius for larger samples using the radius-luminosity correlation derived from reverberation measures, and (3) estimates of BLR radius using the definition of the ionization parameter solved for BLR radius (photoionization method). At low redshift (z ? 0.7) FWHM Hβ serves as the most widely used estimator of virial velocity dispersion. FWHM Hβ can provide estimates for tens of thousands of quasars out to z ≈ 3.8 (IR spectroscopy beyond z ≈ 1). A new photoionization method also shows promise for providing many reasonable estimates of BLR radius via high S/N IR spectroscopy of the UV region 1300–2000 Å. FWHM Mgiiλ2800 can serve as a surrogate for FWHM Hβ in the range 0.4 ? z ? 6.5 while civλ1549 is affected by broadening due to non-virial motions and best avoided (i.e. there is no clear conversion factor between FWHM Hβ and FWHM Civλ1549). Most quasars yield mass estimates in the range 7 ? log M_BH ? 9.7. There is no strong evidence for values above 10.0 and there may be evidence for a turnover in the maximum black hole mass near z ≈ 5.  相似文献   

Delineation of flooding risk hotspots based on digital elevation model,calculated and historical flooding extents: the case of Ouagadougou     

Raffaele?De RisiEmail author  Fatemeh?Jalayer  Francesco?De Paola  Sarah?Lindley 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1545-1559

Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (T_R), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available.  相似文献   

Controls on the lateral channel-migration rate of braided channel systems in coarse non-cohesive sediment     

Aaron Bufe  Jens M. Turowski  Douglas W. Burbank  Chris Paola  Andrew D. Wickert  Stefanie Tofelde 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(14):2823-2836

Lateral movements of alluvial river channels control the extent and reworking rates of alluvial fans, floodplains, deltas, and alluvial sections of bedrock rivers. These lateral movements can occur by gradual channel migration or by sudden changes in channel position (avulsions). Whereas models exist for rates of river avulsion, we lack a detailed understanding of the rates of lateral channel migration on the scale of a channel belt. In a two-step process, we develop here an expression for the lateral migration rate of braided channel systems in coarse, non-cohesive sediment. On the basis of photographic and topographic data from laboratory experiments of braided channels performed under constant external boundary conditions, we first explore the impact of autogenic variations of the channel-system geometry (i.e. channel-bank heights, water depths, channel-system width, and channel slope) on channel-migration rates. In agreement with theoretical expectations, we find that, under such constant boundary conditions, the laterally reworked volume of sediment is constant and lateral channel-migration rates scale inversely with the channel-bank height. Furthermore, when channel-bank heights are accounted for, lateral migration rates are independent of the remaining channel geometry parameters. These constraints allow us, in a second step, to derive two alternative expressions for lateral channel-migration rates under different boundary conditions using dimensional analysis. Fits of a compilation of laboratory experiments to these expressions suggest that, for a given channel bank-height, migration rates are strongly sensitive to water discharges and more weakly sensitive to sediment discharges. In addition, external perturbations, such as changes in sediment and water discharges or base level fall, can indirectly affect lateral channel-migration rates by modulating channel-bank heights. © 2019 The Author. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 The Author. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Seismotectonics of the Po Plain (Northern Italy): Tectonic Diversity in a Blind Faulting Domain     

Paola?VannoliEmail author  Pierfrancesco?Burrato  Gianluca?Valensise 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(5):1105-1142

We present a systematic and updated overview of a seismotectonic model for the Po Plain (northern Italy). This flat and apparently quiet tectonic domain is, in fact, rather active as it comprises the shortened foreland and foredeep of both the Southern Alps and the Northern Apennines. Assessing its seismic hazard is crucial due to the concentration of population, industrial activities, and critical infrastructures, but it is also complicated because (a) the region is geologically very diverse, and (b) nearly all potential seismogenic faults are buried beneath a thick blanket of Pliocene–Pleistocene sediments, and thus can be investigated only indirectly. Identifying and parameterizing the potential seismogenic faults of the Po Plain requires proper consideration of their depth, geometry, kinematics, earthquake potential and location with respect to the two confronting orogens. To this end, we subdivided them into four main, homogeneous groups. Over the past 15 years we developed new strategies for coping with this diversity, resorting to different data and modeling approaches as required by each individual fault group. The most significant faults occur beneath the thrust fronts of the Ferrara-Romagna and Emilia arcs, which correspond to the most advanced and buried portions of the Northern Apennines and were the locus of the destructive May 2012 earthquake sequence. The largest known Po Plain earthquake, however, occurred on an elusive reactivated fault cutting the Alpine foreland south of Verona. Significant earthquakes are expected to be generated also by a set of transverse structures segmenting the thrust system, and by the deeper ramps of the Apennines thrusts. The new dataset is intended to be included in the next version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/, version 3.2.0, developed and maintained by INGV) to improve completeness of potential sources for seismic hazard assessment.  相似文献   

Fractional Tajimi–Kanai model for simulating earthquake ground motion     

G. Alotta  M. Di Paola  A. Pirrotta 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(6):2495-2506

The ground acceleration is usually modeled as a filtered Gaussian process. The most common model is a Tajimi–Kanai (TK) filter that is a viscoelastic Kelvin–Voigt unit (a spring in parallel with a dashpot) carrying a mass excited by a white noise (acceleration at the bedrock). Based upon the observation that every real material exhibits a power law trend in the creep test, in this paper it is proposed the substitution of the purely viscous element in the Kelvin Voigt element with the so called springpot that is an element having an intermediate behavior between purely elastic (spring) and purely viscous (dashpot) behavior ruled by fractional operator. With this choice two main goals are reached: (i) The viscoelastic behavior of the ground may be simply characterized by performing the creep (or the relaxation) test on a specimen of the ground at the given site; (ii) The number of zero crossing of the absolute acceleration at the free field that for the classical TK model is \(\infty \) for a true white noise acceleration, remains finite for the proposed model.  相似文献   

1D velocity structure of the Po River plain (Northern Italy) assessed by combining strong motion and ambient noise data     

Giuliano Milana  Paola Bordoni  Fabrizio Cara  Giuseppe Di Giulio  Salomon Hailemikael  Antonio Rovelli 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2195-2209

Strong ground motions recorded on the sedimentary deposits of the Po River alluvial plain during the Emilia (Northern Italy) Mw 5.7 earthquake of May 29, 2012 are used to assess the vertical profile of shear-wave velocity above the limestone basement. Data were collected by a linear array installed for site effect studies after the Mw 5.9 mainshock of May 20, 2012. The array stations, equipped with both strong and weak motion sensors, are aligned in the South–North direction, at distances ranging from 1 to 26 km from the epicenter. The vertical components of ground motion show very distinctive, large-amplitude, low-frequency dispersive wave trains. Wavelet analysis yields group-velocity dispersion curve in the 0.2–0.7 Hz frequency band. The availability of a long ambient noise record allows estimates of the site resonance frequency along with its stability among stations. The joint inversion of dispersion of surface waves and ellipticity curves derived from ambient noise H/V allows extending investigations down to the sediment-limestone interface, at a depth of about 5,000 m. Our results add new information about the velocity structure at a scale that is intermediate between the local scale already investigated by other authors with small-aperture arrays using ambient noise and the regional scale inferred from modeling of seismogram waveforms recorded at hundreds of kilometers from the source.  相似文献   

Study of the Interaction Mechanism in the Biosorption of Copper(II) Ions onto Posidonia oceanica and Peat     

Marta Izquierdo  Paula Marzal  Carmen Gabaldón  Margherita Silvetti  Paola Castaldi 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2012,40(4):428-437

A systematic approach was used to characterize the biosorption of copper(II) onto two biosorbents, Posidonia oceanica and peat, focusing on the interaction mechanisms, the copper(II) sorption–desorption process and the thermal behavior of the biosorbents. Sorption isotherms at pH 4–6 were obtained and the experimental data were fitted to the Langmuir model with a maximum uptake (q_max) at pH 6 of 85.78 and 49.69 mg g^?1, for P. oceanica and peat, respectively. A sequential desorption (SD) with water, Ca(NO₃)₂, and EDTA was applied to copper‐saturated biosorbents. Around 65–70% copper(II) were desorbed with EDTA, indicating that this heavy metal was strongly bound. The reversibility of copper(II) sorption was obtained by desorption with HCl and SD. Fourier transform IR spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis detected the presence of peaks associated with OH groups in aromatic and aliphatic structures, CH, CH₂, and CH₃ in aliphatic structures, COO^? and COOH groups and unsaturated aromatic structures on the surface of both biosorbents, as well as peaks corresponding to Si? O groups on the surface of peat. The results of SEM‐EDX and FTIR analysis of copper‐saturated samples demonstrated that ion exchange was one of the mechanisms involved in copper(II) retention. Thermal analysis of biosorbent samples showed that copper(II) sorption–desorption processes affected the thermal stability of the biosorbents.  相似文献   

Somma-Vesuvius’ activity: a mineral chemistry database     

Redi  Daniele  Cannatelli  Claudia  Esposito  Rosario  Lima  Annamaria  Petrosino  Paola  De Vivo  Benedetto 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,111(1):43-67

Mineralogy and Petrology - Clinopyroxene and olivine are ubiquitous phases in Somma-Vesuvius (SV) volcanics and for the first time they were systematically studied in several products younger than...  相似文献   

Constraining Holocene sea levels using U‐Th ages of phreatic overgrowths on speleothems from coastal caves in Mallorca (Western Mediterranean)     

Paola Tuccimei  Michele Soligo  Joaquin Ginés  Angel Ginés  Joan Fornós  Jan Kramers  Igor Maria Villa 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(7):782-790

Phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) are carbonate formations deposited at the water table of caves in unique karstic coastal settings having morphologies that can be directly related to sea level at the time of formation. The U‐Th ages of calcite and aragonite overgrowths collected from the modern water table in coastal caves on Mallorca (Cova de Cala Varques A and Cova des Pas de Vallgornera) were determined using high‐precision MC‐ICPMS techniques. U‐Th ages indicate that phreatic carbonate deposition occurred between ca 2·8 and at least 0·6 ka BP and are in accord with an archeologically estimated age of 3·7–3·0 ka BP for a drowned prehistoric construction at a depth of 1 m below current sea level in a cave from the same area. Speleothem δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O and chemical composition of cave pools provide supportive evidence that POS reflect mixing between seawater and brackish water table. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献