Linking the Recurrence Time of Earthquakes to Source Parameters: A Dream or a Real Possibility?     

Andrea Bizzarri  Paola Crupi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(10):2537-2553

By using a single-degree-of-freedom spring-slider analog fault model, we generate a synthetic catalog of nearly 500 different seismic sequences. We explore the parameter space by assuming different values of constitutive parameters and tectonic environment. We also consider three different versions of the rate-dependent and state-dependent friction laws [the Dieterich-Ruina (DR), the Ruina-Dieterich (RD) and the Chester-Higgs (CH) models], and different approximations of the behavior of the friction at high sliding speeds, as well as the radiation damping effects. Our results indicate that for all the considered models, the recurrence time (T _cycle) exhibits an inverse proportionality on the loading rate; a linear, positive dependence on the effective normal stress; and a linear, negative dependence on the characteristic distance controlling the state variable evolution. These results confirm and generalize previous studies. Remarkably, we found here that the coefficients of proportionality strongly depend on the adopted friction model, on the high speed behavior and on the reference set of parameters. Notably, we also found that the positive proportionality between T _cycle and the difference b – a, confirmed for DR and RD laws, does not hold in general for the CH law. Overall, we conclude that even in the simplest (and idealized) case of characteristic earthquakes considered here, in which the limiting cycle is reached by the system, and even in the framework of a very simplified fault model, the possibility to a priori predict, through an universal analytical relation, the inter-event time of an impending earthquake still remains only a dream. On the other hand, a numerical prediction of T _cycle would require the exact knowledge of the rheological model (and its parameters at all times over the entire life of the fault) and the actual state of the fault, which indeed are often unknown.  相似文献   

Earthquakes from 1820 to 1936 in Grahamstown and surroundings (Eastern Cape Province,South Africa)     

Paola Albini  Fleur O. Strasser  Nicolette S. Flint 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(1):45-78

The seismicity of Grahamstown, in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, for the years between 1820 and 1936 is investigated with recourse to contemporaneous documentary sources, leading to the development of a seismic history incorporating consideration of the broader geo-political context. Individual studies of five regional events that were felt in Grahamstown during that period, and of one that was not, are presented. Each study includes the development of a full set of intensity data points, which are used to determine reappraised epicentral locations and magnitudes, some of which differ significantly from previously listed parameters. The results thus obtained highlight the value of seeking out additional contemporary sources from different language groups when revisiting the source parameters of earthquakes for which no or only very limited instrumental information is available.  相似文献   

P-wave Velocity,Density, and Vertical Stress Magnitude Along the Crustal Po Plain (Northern Italy) from Sonic Log Drilling Data     

Paola Montone  Maria Teresa Mariucci 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(6):1547-1561

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40Ar–39Ar dating of volcanogenic products from the AND-2A core (ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Sound Project, Antarctica): correlations with the Erebus Volcanic Province and implications for the age model of the core     

Gianfranco Di Vincenzo  Laura Bracciali  Paola Del Carlo  Kurt Panter  Sergio Rocchi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(4):487-505

The AND-2A drillcore (Antarctic Drilling Program—ANDRILL) was successfully completed in late 2007 on the Antarctic continental margin (Southern McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea) with the aim of tracking ice proximal to shallow marine environmental fluctuations and to document the 20-Ma evolution of the Erebus Volcanic Province. Lava clasts and tephra layers from the AND-2A drillcore were investigated from a petrographic and stratigraphic point of view and analyzed by the ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar laser technique in order to constrain the age model of the core and to gain information on the style and nature of sediment deposition in the Victoria Land Basin since Early Miocene. Ten out of 17 samples yielded statistically robust ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages, indicating that the AND-2A drillcore recovered ≤230 m of Middle Miocene (∼128–358 m below sea floor, ∼11.5–16.0 Ma) and >780 m of Early Miocene (∼358–1093 m below sea floor, ∼16.0–20.1 Ma). Results also highlight a nearly continuous stratigraphic record from at least 358 m below sea floor down hole, characterized by a mean sedimentation rate of ∼19 cm/ka, possible oscillations of no more than a few hundreds of ka and a break within ∼17.5–18.1 Ma. Comparison with available data from volcanic deposits on land, suggests that volcanic rocks within the AND-2A core were supplied from the south, possibly with source areas closer to the drill site for the upper core levels, and from 358 m below sea floor down hole, with the “proto-Mount Morning” as the main source.  相似文献   

Validation and application of an ensemble Kalman filter in the Selat Pauh of Singapore   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jun Wei  Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(2):395-401

The effectiveness of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is assessed in the Selat Pauh of Singapore using observing system simulation experiment. Perfect model experiments are first considered. The perfect model experiments examine the EnKF in reducing the initial perturbations with no further errors than those in the initial conditions. Current velocity at 15 observational sites from the true ocean is assimilated every hour into the false ocean. While EnKF reduces the initial velocity error during the first few hours, it fails after one tidal cycle (approximately 12 h) due to the rapid convergence of the ensemble members. Successively, errors are introduced in the surface wind forcing. A random perturbation ε is applied independently to each ensemble member to maintain the ensemble spread. The assimilation results showed that the success of EnKF depends critically on the presence of ε, yet it is not sensitive to the magnitude of ε, at least in the range of weak to moderate perturbations. Although all experiments were made with EnKF only, the results could be applicable in general to all other ensemble-based data assimilation methods.  相似文献   

Stratigraphic constraints for explosive activity in the past 100 ka at Etna Volcano, Italy     

Mauro Coltelli  Paola Del Carlo  Luigina Vezzoli 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2000,89(3):665-677

The pyroclastic deposits of Etna have been correlated over the whole volcanic edifice for the first time, allowing the construction of a continuous record of tephra-producing events, which extends from approximately 100 ka to the Present. In this interval, five main periods of explosive activity have been identified: (a) ~100-ka strombolian to subplinian activity; (b) 80- to 100-ka plinian benmoreitic activity; (c) 16- to 80-ka strombolian to subplinian from basaltic to mugearitic activity; (d) 15.5- to 15-ka plinian benmoreitic activity accompanying the caldera-forming eruptions of the Ellittico Volcano; and (e) the most recent 13-ka basaltic explosive activity of strombolian and subplinian type of the present edifice that also includes the 122-B.C. plinian eruption. This study results in a semi-quantitative and in some cases quantitative definition of the intensity and chronology of the explosive activity at Etna. Moreover, this work gives a new significance to the volcanic hazards of Etna, a volcano generally considered to be the site of gentle effusive eruptions.  相似文献   

Testing geomorphic signal of active normal faulting: The case of the Cittanova Fault (Calabria,southern Italy)          下载免费PDF全文

Edoardo Peronace  Marta Della Seta  Francesco Troiani  Paolo Galli  Biagio Giaccio  Paolo Messina  Paola Fredi 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(10):2256-2270

Extracting tectonic signals from the landscape is an important challenge for constraining the style and rate of deformation associated with active faults, especially where their displacement history cannot be independently determined. Based on previous paleoseismological data coupled with new geomorphological field work and ¹⁴C dating of geomorphic markers, we analysed the geomorphic signal of the along‐strike differential throw of the Cittanova Fault in southern Calabria (Italy), the recent activity of which is already well documented and constrained. Through DTM‐derived stream power law parameters (SL and χ), we provide evidence of drainage network disequilibrium and reorganization in response to fault growth and deformation style. Furthermore, a methodological test of the reliability of the χ metric as a proxy for the differential throw along the strike of active normal faults provided good preliminary results, consistent with a strong inverse linear correlation with fault throw. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Earthquakes in southern Dalmatia and coastal Montenegro before the large 6 April 1667 event     

Paola Albini  Andrea Rovida 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(3):721-754

The fourteenth to seventeenth century seismicity of southern Dalmatia (Croatia) and coastal Montenegro deserved to be fully reappraised because of the ascertained imperfect knowledge offered by modern seismological studies and of the awareness of the smokescreen effect due to the large 6 April 1667 M 6.4 earthquake that impacted exactly the area of study. The investigation consisted of (i) a reconsideration of earthquake records made available by previous studies and (ii) a systematic analysis of historical sources contemporary to the earthquakes, especially those not yet taken into account in seismological studies. The 168 contemporary and independent records collected cast a different light on more than 300 years of seismicity of this area. Records are reckoned to be unevenly distributed among the 39 studied earthquakes, out of which 15 still rely upon a single testimony. Each record has been reevaluated with respect to its content and attributed a level of reliability, which for those reporting other 14 events was so low to prevent us from confirming their real occurrence. Completely unreliable records have been identified and discussed, to conclude that they are at the root of five fake earthquakes. Altogether, 34 intensity values in EMS-98 were assessed related to 15 moderate and five damaging earthquakes. Existing and newly obtained data contributed to putting the pre-1667 seismicity of southern Dalmatia and coastal Montenegro into a substantially different perspective.  相似文献   

The thin blue line: A review of shoreline dynamics across time scales and environments     

Vaughan R. Voller  John B. Swenson  Chris Paola 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(1):96-108

A major thread of theoretical research on the response of shorelines to changing boundary conditions has adapted the moving-boundary approach from heat transfer and solidification/melting. On sufficiently short time scales, shorelines respond to changes in relative sea level in a simple, geometrically predictable way. On longer time scales, their behaviour becomes far more complex and interesting, because the surface over which the shoreline moves is itself continually modified by morphodynamics that depend sensitively on shoreline location. This makes the shoreline the archetype of moving-boundary problems in morphodynamics, and subject to potentially counterintuitive behaviours over time scales on which the sediment surface modifies itself as relative sea level changes. We review existing moving-boundary theories and propose two significant extensions to allow inclusion of first-order effects of waves and tides. First, we show how wave effects can be included via planform diffusion linked to river-mouth location, which results in shoreline smoothing during delta-lobe growth and localized transgression after channel abandonment. Tides produce a low-gradient region in which the sea and land overlap; we show how this can be treated in a moving-boundary framework by replacing the shoreline with a ‘mushy region' so that the handoff from land to water occurs over a zone rather than a line. We also propose that the moving-boundary approach can be readily generalized to other dynamic moving boundaries, such as those separating different regimes of river transport. The shoreline thus serves as a prototype for modelling dynamic facies boundaries along the whole source–sink system. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

A baroclinic coastal trapped wave event in the Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea)     

Paola de Ruggiero  Ernesto Napolitano  Roberto Iacono  Stefano Pierini  Giancarlo Spezie 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(12):1683-1694

In this study, a baroclinic coastal trapped wave, with period ~?4.5 days and cross-shore scale ~?3 km, is identified in the outputs of a very-high-resolution ocean circulation model of the Campania coastal system (central Tyrrhenian Sea; including the Gulfs of Salerno, Naples, and Gaeta). The outputs are from a simulation spanning June 2003, a month in which the surface winds were always weak, except for a strong northeasterly wind event that lasted 1 day (20 June). This event is found to generate a strong upwelling along the Campania coasts, whose relaxation—virtually free, because of the weakness of the winds—produces coastal current fluctuations that propagate to the north, spanning the three gulfs. The dynamics (analyzed with a focus on the Gulf of Naples) is found to share important features with baroclinic Kelvin waves in a two-layer model, such as the sharp cross-shore decrease of the perturbation amplitude and the vertical reversal of the long-shore current velocities. The simulated phase speed, cross-shore extension, and wavelength of the perturbation are also close to those obtained using a two-layer approximation of the dynamics. Moreover, the propagation described by the models is shown to be compatible with current measurements that were made in June 2003 at the southern entrance of the Gulf of Naples. Experimental implications related to the specific oceanographic problem are finally discussed, and an experimental strategy—inspired by our modeling approach—aimed at identifying the phenomenon is proposed.  相似文献