Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Fatemeh Jalayer  Raffaele De Risi  Francesco De Paola  Maurizio Giugni  Gaetano Manfredi  Paolo Gasparini  Maria Elena Topa  Nebyou Yonas  Kumelachew Yeshitela  Alemu Nebebe  Gina Cavan  Sarah Lindley  Andreas Printz  Florian Renner 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):975-1001

Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.  相似文献   

Segmented, curved faults: the example of the Balduini Thrust Zone, Northern Apennines, Italy     

Paola Vannucchi 《Journal of Structural Geology》1999,21(12):51

Meso- and micro-structural studies of the well-exposed Balduini Thrust (Northern Apennines, Italy) indicate that the structure formed during a single folding event, contemporaneous with diagenesis, and is a zone comprising curved, en-échelon fault segments. The geometry of each segment is arcuate with pure compression at one end and right-lateral displacement along the other. The thrust developed during the Tortonian within a single mud-rich formation, the Upper Eocene–Upper Oligocene Scaglia Cinerea, but rheological variations within the unit led to differences in deformation style; zones of scaly fabric are discontinuous and calcite veins vary in abundance. The mesoscopic morphology of the veins and the distribution of calcium carbonate along the formation indicate variations in the distribution of fluids at the time of deformation, which affected both diagenesis and the structural response of the material. Systematic variations of mechanical properties within the thickness of the Scaglia Cinerea Formation account for the curvature of the propagating thrust. Together with the heterogeneity of the stress field, the confinement of the arcing thrust to this single, weak unit lead to repeated initiation of new fractures and hence segmentation of the propagating thrust. Geometric analysis of the calcite veins and their microscopic characters suggests that hydrofracturing was involved, with the Scaglia Cinerea Formation experiencing high fluid pressure followed by rapid water expulsion. The Balduini Thrust is therefore an example of a fluid-driven, refracted compound shear zone. The analysis presented here provides insights into the three-dimensional arrangement of fault zones and fluid-migration patterns during regional faulting.  相似文献   

From flood risk mapping toward reducing vulnerability: the case of Addis Ababa     

De Risi  Raffaele  Jalayer  Fatemeh  De Paola  Francesco  Carozza  Stefano  Yonas  Nebyou  Giugni  Maurizio  Gasparini  Paolo 《Natural Hazards》2020,100(1):387-415

Natural Hazards - Flood risk maps for the built environment can be obtained by integrating geo-spatial information on hazard, vulnerability and exposure. They provide precious support for strategic...  相似文献   

Evaluation of liquefaction potential in an intermountain Quaternary lacustrine basin (Fucino basin,central Italy)     

Paolo Boncio  Sara Amoroso  Giovanna Vessia  Marco Francescone  Mauro Nardone  Paola Monaco  Daniela Famiani  Deborah Di Naccio  Alessia Mercuri  Maria Rosaria Manuel  Fabrizio Galadini  Giuliano Milana 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(1):91-111

In this study, we analyse the susceptibility to liquefaction of the Pozzone site, which is located on the northern side of the Fucino lacustrine basin in central Italy. In 1915, this region was struck by a M 7.0 earthquake, which produced widespread coseismic surface effects that were interpreted to be liquefaction-related. However, the interpretation of these phenomena at the Pozzone site is not straightforward. Furthermore, the site is characterized by an abundance of fine-grained sediments, which are not typically found in liquefiable soils. Therefore, in this study, we perform a number of detailed stratigraphic and geotechnical investigations (including continuous-coring borehole, CPTu, SDMT, SPT, and geotechnical laboratory tests) to better interpret these 1915 phenomena and to evaluate the liquefaction potential of a lacustrine environment dominated by fine-grained sedimentation. The upper 18.5 m of the stratigraphic succession comprises fine-grained sediments, including four strata of coarser sediments formed by interbedded layers of sand, silty sand and sandy silt. These strata, which are interpreted to represent the frontal lobes of an alluvial fan system within a lacustrine succession, are highly susceptible to liquefaction. We also find evidence of paleo-liquefaction, dated between 12.1–10.8 and 9.43–9.13 kyrs ago, occurring at depths of 2.1–2.3 m. These data, along with the aforementioned geotechnical analyses, indicate that this site would indeed be liquefiable in a 1915-like earthquake. Although we found a broad agreement among CPTu, DMT and shear wave velocity “simplified procedures” in detecting the liquefaction potential of the Pozzone soil, our results suggest that the use and comparison of different in situ techniques are highly recommended for reliable estimates of the cyclic liquefaction resistance in lacustrine sites characterized by high content of fine-grained soils. In geologic environments similar to the one analysed in this work, where it is difficult to detect liquefiable layers, one can identify sites that are susceptible to liquefaction only by using detailed stratigraphic reconstructions, in situ characterization, and laboratory analyses. This has implications for basic (Level 1) seismic microzonation mapping, which typically relies on the use of empirical evaluations based on geologic maps and pre-existing sub-surface data (i.e., age and type of deposits, prevailing grain size, with particular attention paid to clean sands, and depth of the water table).  相似文献   

Tomography of crustal seismic attenuation in Metropolitan France: implications for seismicity analysis     

Jessie Mayor  Paola Traversa  Marie Calvet  Ludovic Margerin 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2195-2210

In this work, we map the absorption properties of the French crust by analyzing the decay properties of coda waves. Estimation of the coda quality factor \(Q_{c}\) in five non-overlapping frequency-bands between 1 and 32 Hz is performed for more than 12,000 high-quality seismograms from about 1700 weak to moderate crustal earthquakes recorded between 1995 and 2013. Based on sensitivity analysis, \(Q_{c}\) is subsequently approximated as an integral of the intrinsic shear wave quality factor \(Q_{i}\) along the ray connecting the source to the station. After discretization of the medium on a 2-D Cartesian grid, this yields a linear inverse problem for the spatial distribution of \(Q_{i}\). The solution is approximated by redistributing \(Q_{c}\) in the pixels connecting the source to the station and averaging over all paths. This simple procedure allows to obtain frequency-dependent maps of apparent absorption that show lateral variations of \(50\%\) at length scales ranging from 50 km to 150 km, in all the frequency bands analyzed. At low frequency, the small-scale geological features of the crust are clearly delineated: the Meso-Cenozoic basins (Aquitaine, Brabant, Southeast) appear as strong absorption regions, while crystalline massifs (Armorican, Central Massif, Alps) appear as low absorption zones. At high frequency, the correlation between the surface geological features and the absorption map disappears, except for the deepest Meso-Cenozoic basins which exhibit a strong absorption signature. Based on the tomographic results, we explore the implications of lateral variations of absorption for the analysis of both instrumental and historical seismicity. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) current local magnitude \(M_{L}\) can be over(resp. under)-estimated when absorption is weaker(resp. stronger) than the nominal value assumed in the amplitude-distance relation; (2) both the forward prediction of the earthquake macroseismic intensity field and the estimation of historical earthquake seismological parameters using macroseismic intensity data are significantly improved by taking into account a realistic 2-D distribution of absorption. In the future, both \(M_{L}\) estimations and macroseismic intensity attenuation models should benefit from high-resolution models of frequency-dependent absorption such as the one produced in this study.  相似文献   

Selecting time windows of seismic phases and noise for engineering seismology applications: a versatile methodology and algorithm     

Vincent Perron  Aurore Laurendeau  Fabrice Hollender  Pierre-Yves Bard  Céline Gélis  Paola Traversa  Stéphane Drouet 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2211-2225

Seismic signal windowing is the preliminary step for many analysis procedures in engineering seismology (standard spectral ratio, quality factor, general inversion techniques, etc.). Moreover a noise window is often necessary for the data quality control through the signal-to-noise verification. Selecting the noise window can be challenging when large heterogeneous datasets are considered, especially when they include short pre-event noise signals. This study proposes a fully automatic and configurable (i.e., with default parameters that can also be user-defined) algorithm to windowing the noise and the P, S, coda and full signal once the P-wave (T _P ) and S-wave (T _S ) first arrivals are known. An application example is given on a KiK-net dataset. A Matlab language implementation of this algorithm is proposed as an online resource.  相似文献   

Exploration tree approach to estimate historical earthquakes Mw and depth,test cases from the French past seismicity     

Paola Traversa  David Baumont  Kévin Manchuel  Emmanuelle Nayman  Christophe Durouchoux 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2169-2193

The estimation of the seismological parameters of historical earthquakes is a key step when performing seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions as France. We propose an original method to assess magnitude and depth of historical earthquakes using intensity data points. A flowchart based on an exploration tree (ET) approach allows to apply a consistent methodology to all the different configurations of the earthquake macroseismic field and to explore the inherent uncertainties. The method is applied to French test case historical earthquakes, using the SisFrance (BRGM, IRSN, EDF) macroseismic database and the intensity prediction equations (IPEs) calibrated in the companion paper (Baumont et al. Bull Earthq Eng, 2017). A weighted least square scheme allowing for the joint inversion of magnitude and depth is applied to earthquakes that exhibit a decay of intensity with distance. Two cases are distinguished: (1) a “Complete ET” is applied to earthquakes located within the metropolitan territory, while (2) a “Simplified ET” is applied to both, offshore and cross border events, lacking information at short distances but disposing of reliable data at large ones. Finally, a priori-depth-based magnitude computation is applied to ancient or poorly documented events, only described by single/sporadic intensity data or few macroseismic testimonies. Specific processing of “felt” testimonies allows exploiting this complementary information for poorly described earthquakes. Uncertainties associated to magnitude and depth estimates result from both, full propagation of uncertainties related to the original macroseismic information and the epistemic uncertainty related to the IPEs selection procedure.  相似文献   

A multi‐performance design method for seismic upgrading of existing RC frames by BRBs          下载免费PDF全文

Francesca Barbagallo  Melina Bosco  Edoardo M. Marino  Pier Paolo Rossi  Paola R. Stramondo 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(7):1099-1119

In the world, many existing buildings with RC framed structure were designed according to old seismic standards and present structural deficiencies. Buckling Restrained Braces (BRBs) can be effective for seismic upgrading of these structures, as pointed out by many studies. Nevertheless, Eurocode 8 (EC8) does not provide any rules for design of BRBs. This lack represents a big obstacle for application of this seismic upgrading technique in Europe. For this reason, a method for the design of seismic upgrading interventions by BRBs is proposed in this paper. The method is obtained as the best between two variants developed, investigated and compared in this paper. Based on a numerical investigation, the parameters that control the design method are calibrated to ensure the fulfillment of the Near Collapse performance objective stipulated in EC8. Finally, the capability of the proposed design method in fulfilling also performance objectives not explicitly considered in design is investigated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An ordered probit model for seismic intensity data     

Michela?CamelettiEmail author  Valerio?De Rubeis  Clarissa?Ferrari  Paola?Sbarra  Patrizia?Tosi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1593-1602

Seismic intensity, measured through the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) scale, provides an assessment of ground shaking level deduced from building damages, any natural environment changes and from any observed effects or feelings. Generally, moving away from the earthquake epicentre, the effects are lower but intensities may vary in space, as there could be areas that amplify or reduce the shaking depending on the earthquake source geometry, geological features and local factors. Currently, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia analyzes, for each seismic event, intensity data collected through the online macroseismic questionnaire available at the web-page www.haisentitoilterremoto.it. Questionnaire responses are aggregated at the municipality level and analyzed to obtain an intensity defined on an ordinal categorical scale. The main aim of this work is to model macroseismic attenuation and obtain an intensity prediction equation which describes the decay of macroseismic intensity as a function of the magnitude and distance from the hypocentre. To do this we employ an ordered probit model, assuming that the intensity response variable is related through the link probit function to some predictors. Differently from what it is commonly done in the macroseismic literature, this approach takes properly into account the qualitative and ordinal nature of the macroseismic intensity as defined on the MCS scale. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we estimate the posterior probability of the intensity at each site. Moreover, by comparing observed and estimated intensities we are able to detect anomalous areas in terms of residuals. This kind of information can be useful for a better assessment of seismic risk and for promoting effective policies to reduce major damages.  相似文献   

Connectivity as an emergent property of geomorphic systems     

Ellen Wohl  Gary Brierley  Daniel Cadol  Tom J. Coulthard  Tim Covino  Kirstie A. Fryirs  Gordon Grant  Robert G. Hilton  Stuart N. Lane  Francis J. Magilligan  Kimberly M. Meitzen  Paola Passalacqua  Ronald E. Poeppl  Sara L. Rathburn  Leonard S. Sklar 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(1):4-26

Connectivity describes the efficiency of material transfer between geomorphic system components such as hillslopes and rivers or longitudinal segments within a river network. Representations of geomorphic systems as networks should recognize that the compartments, links, and nodes exhibit connectivity at differing scales. The historical underpinnings of connectivity in geomorphology involve management of geomorphic systems and observations linking surface processes to landform dynamics. Current work in geomorphic connectivity emphasizes hydrological, sediment, or landscape connectivity. Signatures of connectivity can be detected using diverse indicators that vary from contemporary processes to stratigraphic records or a spatial metric such as sediment yield that encompasses geomorphic processes operating over diverse time and space scales. One approach to measuring connectivity is to determine the fundamental temporal and spatial scales for the phenomenon of interest and to make measurements at a sufficiently large multiple of the fundamental scales to capture reliably a representative sample. Another approach seeks to characterize how connectivity varies with scale, by applying the same metric over a wide range of scales or using statistical measures that characterize the frequency distributions of connectivity across scales. Identifying and measuring connectivity is useful in basic and applied geomorphic research and we explore the implications of connectivity for river management. Common themes and ideas that merit further research include; increased understanding of the importance of capturing landscape heterogeneity and connectivity patterns; the potential to use graph and network theory metrics in analyzing connectivity; the need to understand which metrics best represent the physical system and its connectivity pathways, and to apply these metrics to the validation of numerical models; and the need to recognize the importance of low levels of connectivity in some situations. We emphasize the value in evaluating boundaries between components of geomorphic systems as transition zones and examining the fluxes across them to understand landscape functioning. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献