Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications     

Patricia Fortes  Sofia Simões  Júlia Seixas  Denise Van Regemorter  Francisco Ferreira 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):285-304

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.  相似文献   

A proposed Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point for the base of the Middle Ordovician Series： The Niquivil section, Precordillera of San Juan, Argentina     

Guillermo L. Albanesi Marcelo G. Carrera Fernando L. Canas Matthew Saltzman 《《幕》》2006,29(1):1-15

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Active galactic nuclei and galaxy interactions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Sol Alonso  Diego G. Lambas  Patricia Tissera  Georgina Coldwell 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,375(3):1017-1024

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Long-term variation of macroinvertebrate assemblages in Apalachee Bay,Florida     

Patricia J. Dugan  Robert J. Livingston 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1982,14(4):391-403

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IWC—bargaining and compromise     

Patricia Birnie 《Marine Policy》1981,5(1):79-84

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Inverse problem in hydrogeology   总被引：14，自引：6，他引：8  

Jesús Carrera  Andrés Alcolea  Agustín Medina  Juan Hidalgo  Luit J. Slooten 《Hydrogeology Journal》2005,13(1):206-222

The state of the groundwater inverse problem is synthesized. Emphasis is placed on aquifer characterization, where modelers have to deal with conceptual model uncertainty (notably spatial and temporal variability), scale dependence, many types of unknown parameters (transmissivity, recharge, boundary conditions, etc.), nonlinearity, and often low sensitivity of state variables (typically heads and concentrations) to aquifer properties. Because of these difficulties, calibration cannot be separated from the modeling process, as it is sometimes done in other fields. Instead, it should be viewed as one step in the process of understanding aquifer behavior. In fact, it is shown that actual parameter estimation methods do not differ from each other in the essence, though they may differ in the computational details. It is argued that there is ample room for improvement in groundwater inversion: development of user-friendly codes, accommodation of variability through geostatistics, incorporation of geological information and different types of data (temperature, occurrence and concentration of isotopes, age, etc.), proper accounting of uncertainty, etc. Despite this, even with existing codes, automatic calibration facilitates enormously the task of modeling. Therefore, it is contended that its use should become standard practice.

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Resumen Se sintetiza el estado del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas. El énfasis se ubica en la caracterización de acuíferos, donde los modeladores tienen que enfrentar la incertidumbre del modelo conceptual (principalmente variabilidad temporal y espacial), dependencia de escala, muchos tipos de parámetros desconocidos (transmisividad, recarga, condiciones limitantes, etc), no linealidad, y frecuentemente baja sensibilidad de variables de estado (típicamente presiones y concentraciones) a las propiedades del acuífero. Debido a estas dificultades, no puede separarse la calibración de los procesos de modelado, como frecuentemente se hace en otros campos. En su lugar, debe de visualizarse como un paso en el proceso de entendimiento del comportamiento del acuífero. En realidad, se muestra que los métodos reales de estimación de parámetros no difieren uno del otro en lo esencial, aunque sí pueden diferir en los detalles computacionales. Se discute que existe amplio espacio para la mejora del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas: desarrollo de códigos amigables al usuario, acomodamiento de variabilidad a través de geoestadística, incorporación de información geológica y diferentes tipos de datos (temperatura, presencia y concentración de isótopos, edad, etc), explicación apropiada de incertidumbre, etc. A pesar de esto, aún con los códigos existentes, la calibración automática facilita enormemente la tarea de modelado. Por lo tanto, se sostiene que su uso debería de convertirse en práctica standard.

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Résumé Létat du problème inverse des eaux souterraines est synthétisé. Laccent est placé sur la caractérisation de laquifère, où les modélisateurs doivent jouer avec lincertitude des modèles conceptuels (notamment la variabilité spatiale et temporelle), les facteurs déchelle, plusieurs inconnues sur différents paramètres (transmissivité, recharge, conditions aux limites, etc.), la non linéarité, et souvent la sensibilité de plusieurs variables détat (charges hydrauliques, concentrations) des propriétés de laquifère. A cause de ces difficultés, le calibrage ne peut être séparé du processus de modélisation, comme cest le cas dans dautres cas de figure. Par ailleurs, il peut être vu comme une des étapes dans le processus de détermination du comportement de laquifère. Il est montré que les méthodes dévaluation des paramètres actuels ne diffèrent pas si ce nest dans les détails des calculs informatiques. Il est montré quil existe une large panoplie de techniques d ‹inversion : codes de calcul utilisables par tout-un-chacun, accommodation de la variabilité via la géostatistique, incorporation dinformations géologiques et de différents types de données (température, occurrence, concentration en isotopes, âge, etc.), détermination de lincertitude. Vu ces développements, la calibration automatique facilite énormément la modélisation. Par ailleurs, il est souhaitable que son utilisation devienne une pratique standardisée.

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Introductory review of specific factors influencing urban groundwater, an emerging branch of hydrogeology, with reference to Barcelona, Spain   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

E. Vázquez-Suñé  X. Sánchez-Vila  J. Carrera 《Hydrogeology Journal》2005,13(3):522-533

A number of specific factors must be considered when dealing with groundwater in urban areas. Urbanization significantly affects the natural water cycle, both in terms of quantity and quality. In particular, the main contributors to recharge and discharge clearly differ from those in natural systems. Moreover, water can affect underground structures and infrastructure characteristics of cities such as basements, public transport services (trains, underground railways, etc.), and utility conduits. As a result, urban groundwater is emerging as a distinct branch of hydrogeology. The objective of this paper is to review some of the topics that are specific to urban groundwater. These include (1) fluctuations in groundwater levels caused by changes in land and water uses; (2) pollution problems caused by point or non-point sources in urban areas; (3) characterization and quantification of the components contributing to groundwater recharge and discharge; (4) specific characteristics of groundwater flow and solute transport models in urban areas; and (5) integration of data for sustainable urban water management. Some of these issues are illustrated for the particular case of Barcelona, where a comprehensive hydrogeological study has been carried out during the last few years by both the public and the private sectors.

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Resumen Se debe considerar una serie de factores específicos al tratar las aguas subterráneas en áreas urbanas. El proceso de urbanización afecta el ciclo natural del agua de manera significativa tanto en lo que se refiere a cantidad como a calidad. En particular, los contribuyentes principales a la recarga y descarga claramente difieren de aquellos aplicables a los sistemas naturales. Es más, el agua puede afectar los estructuras subterráneas de las ciudades tales como sótanos, servicios de transporte público (trenes, trenes subterráneos) y los servicios básicos. Como resultado de esto, la hidrogeologia urbana está emergiendo como una rama específica de la hidrogeología. El objectivo de este artículo es revisar algunos de los temas que son específicos al agua subterránea urbana. Estos incluyen: 1) Fluctuaciones en los niveles de agua subterránea causados por cambios en los usos de terreno y del agua; 2) Problemas de contaminación causados por fuentes puntuales o no puntuales en áreas urbanas; 3) Caracterización y cuantificación de los componentes que contribuyen a la recarga y descarga de agua subterránea; 4) Características especificas de flujo de agua subterránea y modelos de transporte de solutos en áreas urbanas; y 5) Integración de datos para el manejo sostenible de agua urbana. Algunos de estos puntos se han ilustrados para el caso particular de Barcelona en donde se ha llevado a cabo un estudio hidrogeológico amplio durante los últimos años tanto por el sector privado como el público.

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Résumé Une série de facteurs spécifiques doit être considérée lorsque leau souterraine en région urbaine est étudiée. Lurbanisation affecte significativement le cycle naturel de leau, autant du point de vue quantitatif que qualitatif. Plus particulièrement, les zones de recharge et de décharge diffèrent considérablement des systèmes naturels. Leau souterraine peut affecter les structures souterraines ainsi que les infrastructures municipales telles que les sous-sols, les systèmes de transport publique (trains, métros, ...) et les conduits de service. De ce fait, lhydrogéologie en milieu urbain émerge comme une branche distincte de lhydrogéologie classique. Lobjectif de cet article est de revoir certaines notions qui sont spécifiques à létude de leau souterraine en milieu urbain. Parmi ces notions : 1) les fluctuations de la nappe phréatique causées par des changements dans lutilisation du territoire et de leau, 2) les problèmes de pollution causés par des sources ponctuelles ou diffuses en milieu urbain, 3) la caractérisation et quantification des composants qui contribuent à la recharge et décharge des aquifères, 4) les caractéristiques spécifiques des modèles découlement de leau souterraine et de transport de solutés en milieux urbain, et 5) lintégration des données pour la gestion durable de leau en milieu urbain. Certaines de ces questions sont étudiées pour le cas particulier de la ville de Barcelone où une étude hydrogéologique complète a été menée au cours des dernières années par les secteurs privé et public.

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Effects of hydrocarbon contamination on a free living marine nematode community: results from microcosm experiments     

Mahmoudi E  Essid N  Beyrem H  Hedfi A  Boufahja F  Vitiello P  Aissa P 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(11):1197-1204

Anthropogenic inputs of crude and refined petroleum hydrocarbons into the sea require knowledge of the effects of these contaminants on the receiving assemblages of organisms. A microcosm experiment was carried out to study the influence of diesel on a free living nematode community of a Tunisian lagoon. Sediments were contaminated by diesel that ranged in concentration from 0.5 to 20 mg diesel kg⁻¹ dry weight (dw), and effects were examined after 90 days. Gradual changes in community structure were revealed depending on the quantity of diesel administrated. In the medium (1 mg diesel kg⁻¹ and 5 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw)) and high (10 mg diesel kg⁻¹, 15 mg diesel kg⁻¹ and 20 mg kg⁻¹ (dw)) treated microcosms, most univariate measures, including diversity and species richness, decreased significantly with increasing level of diesel contamination whereas nematode assemblage from the low treated microcosm (0.5 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw)) remained unaffected. Results from multivariate analyses of the species abundance data demonstrated that responses of nematode species to the diesel treatments were varied: Chaetonema sp. was eliminated at all doses tested and seemed to be intolerant species to diesel contamination; Pomponema sp. and Oncholaimus campylocercoïdes were significantly affected at all diesel contamination levels but they were not eliminated, these species were categorized as “diesel-sensitive”; Hypodontolaimus colesi, Daptonema trabeculosum and Daptonema fallax which significantly increased respectively at 0.5, 1 and 5 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw) concentrations and appeared to be “opportunistic” species at these doses whereas Marylynnia stekhoveni which increased at all high doses (10, 15 and 20 mg diesel kg⁻¹ (dw)) seemed to be a “diesel-resistant” species.  相似文献   

Molluscs as multidisciplinary models in environment toxicology     

Rittschof D  McClellan-Green P 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(4):369-373

The primary goal of this paper is to stimulate discussion and promote the use of mollusc models and multidisciplinary research approaches in the field of environmental toxicology. Molluscs are effective models because they are ubiquitous, have highly conserved control and regulatory pathways that are often homologous to vertebrate systems, and are extremely sensitive to anthropogenic inputs. We have attempted to provide initial references as an avenue into the literature and as a means for researchers to expand their thoughts to regions outside of their own area of expertise. The authors are particularly interested in developing multidisciplinary international collaborative efforts.  相似文献   

Investigation of natural and anthropogenic hydrocarbon inputs in sediments using geochemical markers. I. Santos, SP--Brazil   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Medeiros PM  Bícego MC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,49(9-10):761-769

A study on the inputs of organic matter to marine sediments of Santos Bay and Estuary, located in southeastern S?o Paulo State, Brazil, is presented here. The following geochemical markers were identified and quantified: aliphatic hydrocarbons (normal and isoprenoid alkanes), petroleum biomarkers, linear alkylbenzenes (LABs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Sediment samples, collected at 15 sites in the bay and surrounding channels, were extracted and analyzed by gas chromatography with flame ionization and mass spectrometer detectors. Total concentrations varied from 0.17 to 107.80 microg g(-1) for aliphatics, from 47.2 to 2560.1 ng g(-1) for petroleum biomarkers, from 16.9 to 430.6 ng g(-1) for LABs and from 79.6 to 15389.1 ng g(-1) for PAHs. Anthropogenic contributions were apparent, indicating the influences of the Cubatao industrial complex, sewage outfalls along the area, the waste deposit of Santos city and storage facilities for petroleum and derivatives, based on the higher concentrations of geochemical markers detected.  相似文献