September 2003     

Patrick R. Galloway 《Environmental Geology》2003,44(6):745-747

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The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change     

Neil White  Robert W. Sutherst  Nigel Hall  Patrick Whish-Wilson 《Climatic change》2003,61(1-2):157-190

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.  相似文献   

Racialised representations in British and American advertising     

James Taylor 《Area》1997,29(2):160-171

Summary This paper discusses the relationship between advertising and 'race', using as its foundation the replication of a study conducted in the US which used content analysis to examine the representation of Black characters in television advertisements. The replication facilitates a comparison of the British and American cases, revealing significant differences in the frequency and perceived importance of such representations. It can also help draw out the specificities of the UK situation. The paper attempts to convey the complexity of the interplay between advertising and racialisation, and emphasises that while such quantitative, textual studies offer a useful basis for further research, they are limited by their failure to address the motivations of producers and how advertisements are read by different groups in different places.  相似文献   

Quantification and characterization of regional seismic signals from cast blasting in mines: a linear elastic model     

Sridhar Anandakrishnan  Steven R. Taylor  Brian W. Stump 《Geophysical Journal International》1997,131(1):45-60

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Induced stresses and fault potential in eastern Canada due to a realistic load: a preliminary analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Patrick Wu  Henry S. Hasegawa 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,127(1):215-229

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Measurement of natural stresses in a Provence mine (Southern France)     

Patrick Gaviglio  Pascal Bigarre  Hafid Baroudi  Jack-Pierre Piguet  Raymond Monteau 《Engineering Geology》1996,44(1-4):77-92

Stress measurements were carried out in the Arc syncline using drifs in a lignite mine. Eleven sites were investigated using the flat jack and hydraulic fracturing (or stimulating) methods. Two stress states were found to coexist, one isotropic, the other highly anisotropic. The orientations of the principal stresses are not homogeneous and an orientation ranging from E-W to NE-SW predominates locally. This does not accord with the regional stress field. The vertical stresses are systematically underestimated.  相似文献   

The Maltese Islands: climate, vegetation and landscape   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Patrick J. Schembri 《GeoJournal》1997,41(2):1-11

The Maltese Islands, situated in the central Mediterranean, occupy an area of only some 316 km². The climate is typically Mediterranean: the average annual rainfall is c. 530 mm of which some 85% falls during the period October to March; the mean monthly temperature range is 12--26 °C, and the islands are very windy and sunny. Although small, the Maltese Islands have a considerable diversity of landscapes and ecosystems which are representative of the range and variety of those of the Mediterranean region. The islands are composed mainly of limestones, the soils are young and are very similar to the parent rocks, and there are no mountains, streams or lakes, but only minor springs; the main geomorphological features are karstic limestone plateaux, hillsides covered with clay taluses, gently rolling limestone plains, valleys which drain runoff during the wet season, steep sea-cliffs on the south-western coasts, and gently sloping rocky shores to the Northeast. The main vegetational assemblages are maquis, garigue and steppe; minor ones include patches of woodland, coastal wetlands, sand dunes, freshwater, and rupestral communities; the latter are the most scientifically important in view of the large number of endemic species they support. Human impact is significant. Some 38% of the land area is cultivated, c. 15% is built up, and the rest is countryside. The present landscape is a result of the interaction of geology and climate, coupled with the intense human exploitation of the environment over many thousands of years, which has altered the original condition of the vegetation cover, principally through the diversion of vast tracts of land to cultivation, the construction of terraces, water catchment devices, irrigation channels and drainage ditches, the grazing of animals on uncultivated land, and the development of land for buildings and industry. The scantiness of the soil, combined with the erratic rainfall and the periodic disturbance of the vegetation cover, has resulted in extensive erosion. As a consequence it is now difficult for the original vegetation to reassert itself, affecting the landscape drastically and permanently. Much of the original native flora has been lost or marginalised and the present day non-urban landscape is now dominated by vegetation consisting mainly of ruderal and introduced species. As the population increases, and human pressure on the environment mounts, such trends are likely to continue and it is only very recently that some important initiatives have been taken to manage the environment and halt the deterioration of the landscape.  相似文献   

Reply to comments by R. Pucher and T. Wonik     

P.T. Taylor  D. Ravat 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》1997,36(4):217-219

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Caractéristiques et signification d'un niveau coquillier majeur à brachiopodes,marqueur événementiel dans l'évolution dévonienne de la Saoura (Sahara du Nord-Ouest,Algérie)     

Abdelkader Ouali Mehadji  Serge Elmi  Patrick Rachebœuf  Larbi Mekahli 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2004,336(14):1283-1292

In the Saoura, the brachiopod shell beds, so-called niveau coralligène, correspond to a major shell deposit dated to the Late Emsian. Brachiopods and crinoids dominate the benthic assemblage that contains also corals, bryozoans, trilobites, goniatites, and orthocones. This major level has a large geographic distribution and it is characterized by a wide brachiopod diversity due to time-averaging, taphonomic feedback and alternate bottom conditions changing from soft to shelly and firm. This kind of brachiopod association is linked to a transgressive onlap system. At regional extent, we can correlate this major shell bed to similar shell deposits from the Ahnet-Mouydir, Tindouf, and Zemmour areas. It indicates an important transgressive event underlined by change in the sedimentation from detritic deposits to carbonate sediments. To cite this article: A. Ouali Mehadji et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).  相似文献   

Atlantic sources of the Arctic Ocean surface and halocline waters   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Bert Rudels  E. Peter Jones  Ursula Schauer  Patrick Eriksson 《Polar research》2004,23(2):181-208

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