Can radiative forcing be limited to 2.6 Wm−2 without negative emissions from bioenergy AND CO2 capture and storage?     

James Edmonds  Patrick Luckow  Katherine Calvin  Marshall Wise  Jim Dooley  Page Kyle  Son H. Kim  Pralit Patel  Leon Clarke 《Climatic change》2013,118(1):29-43

Combining bioenergy and carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) technologies (BECCS) has the potential to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere while producing useful energy. BECCS has played a central role in scenarios that reduce climate forcing to low levels such as 2.6 Wm^?2. In this paper we consider whether BECCS is essential to limiting radiative forcing (RF) to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 using the Global Change Assessment Model, a closely coupled model of biogeophysical and human Earth systems. We show that BECCS can potentially reduce the cost of limiting RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 but that a variety of technology combinations that do not include BECCS can also achieve this goal, under appropriate emissions mitigation policies. We note that with appropriate supporting land-use policies terrestrial sequestration could deliver carbon storage ranging from 200 to 700 PgCO₂-equiavalent over the 21st century. We explore substantial delays in participation by some geopolitical regions. We find that the value of BECCS is substantially higher under delay and that delay results in higher transient RF and climate change. However, when major regions postponed mitigation indefinitely, it was impossible to return RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100. Neither finite land resources nor finite potential geologic storage capacity represented a meaningful technical limit on the ability of BECCS to contribute to emissions mitigation in the numerical experiments reported in this paper.  相似文献   

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector     

Hermann Held  Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe  Tobias Pardowitz  Joaquim G. Pinto  Uwe Ulbrich  Kai Born  Markus G. Donat  Melanie K. Karremann  Gregor C. Leckebusch  Patrick Ludwig  Katrin M. Nissen  Hermann Österle  Boris F. Prahl  Peter C. Werner  Daniel J. Befort  Olaf Burghoff 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):195-207

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.  相似文献   

Analysis of internal solitary waves observed in Davis Strait     

Patrick F. Cummins  Paul H. LeBlond 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):173-192

Abstract

Current meters and a thermistor chain deployed in the proximity of a drill‐ship over the continental shelf off Baffin Island revealed the presence of large amplitude internal waves. This paper reviews the properties of the internal waves, observed to propagate away from the coast and to coincide with the local low water phase of the tide at the drill‐ship. The observations are considered in terms of internal solitary wave models. A detailed comparison is presented of wave properties with a long‐wave model incorporating continuous stratification and shear.  相似文献   

Single‐Grain Luminescence Dating of Sediment Surrounding a Possible Late Pleistocene Artifact from the Wenas Creek Mammoth Site,Pacific Northwest,USA     

Patrick M. Lubinski  James Feathers  Karl Lillquist 《Geoarchaeology》2014,29(1):16-32

Excavations at the Wenas Creek Mammoth Site yielded mammoth, bison, and two possible artifacts in a single colluvial stratum, with radiocarbon bone dates ∼17 ka. Eight infrared‐stimulated luminescence (IRSL) samples were collected to establish general ages of site strata, returning multi‐grain estimates consistent with stratigraphic integrity and the radiocarbon dates. Four additional IRSL samples were collected to estimate the depositional age of one artifact found in place. These produced a pooled total of 94 single‐grain estimates from near the artifact, 80% averaging 16.8 ± 0.9 ka, and 20% averaging 5.1 ± 0.5 ka. These results could be interpreted to demonstrate pre‐Clovis age artifact deposition consistent with the bone dates, or a mid to late Holocene intrusion into older deposits, possibly by bioturbation. The single‐grain IRSL dates do not provide proof of pre‐Clovis presence beyond reasonable doubt at this site, but do show that this technique is valuable in assessing the stratigraphic integrity needed for any such claim.  相似文献   

Use of Fossil Bryozoans in Sourcing Lithic Artifacts     

Marcus M. Key  Patrick N. Wyse Jackson  Lauren W. Falvey  Barbara J. Roth 《Geoarchaeology》2014,29(5):397-409

This study reviews the occurrence and potential of bryozoans within lithic artifacts and also sets out a methodology for their use in sourcing and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this approach. We present case studies from our own research and from the literature on using bryozoans in sourcing archaeological lithic artifacts. Fossil bryozoans of different ages and clades can be effectively used to determine the material source of lithic artifacts from a variety of prehistoric ages. The case studies included in this report span the stratigraphic range of bryozoans from the Ordovician to the Neogene. The bryozoans came from four different orders: trepostome, fenestrate, cyclostome, and cheilostome. The use of these lithic artifacts ranged back to 25 ka. Although the majority of the fossil bryozoans were incidental in the artifacts, the bryozoans were still useful for determining their original source rock. The improved searchable online paleontologic databases allow for more efficient use of fossil bryozoans to constrain the stratigraphic and paleogeographic distribution of source outcrops. Although generally underutilized in sourcing prehistoric lithic artifacts, it is clear that by analyzing bryozoans, an increased understanding of the lithologic nature of these materials could be gained by the archaeological community.  相似文献   

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy,active-margin coasts     

Patrick L. Barnard  Maarten van Ormondt  Li H. Erikson  Jodi Eshleman  Cheryl Hapke  Peter Ruggiero  Peter N. Adams  Amy C. Foxgrover 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):1095-1125

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.  相似文献   

Dependence of the non-linear mass power spectrum on the equationof state of dark energy     

Patrick McDonald  Hy Trac  Carlo Contaldi 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,366(2):547-556

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Dwarf nova oscillations and quasi-periodic oscillations in cataclysmic variables – I. Observations of VW Hyi     

Patrick A. Woudt  Brian Warner 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,333(2):411-422

From archived and recent high-speed photometry of VW Hyi we find dwarf nova oscillations (DNOs) occasionally present throughout outburst, evolving from a 14.06-s period at maximum to >40 s near the end of outburst. A relatively slow increase of period is followed by a rapid increase and a subsequent decrease.
Quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) are seen at periods of hundreds of seconds. For the first time, the evolution of a QPO period is seen, increasing steadily during the final decline of an outburst. The occasional presence of two DNOs, separated in frequency by the QPO frequency, suggests reprocessing of the rotating DNO beam by a 'wall' rotating progradely in the disc at the QPO period.  相似文献   

Role of temporal resolution of meteorological inputs for process‐based snow modelling          下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad M. Sohrabi  Daniele Tonina  Rohan Benjankar  Mukesh Kumar  Patrick Kormos  Danny Marks 《水文研究》2018,32(19):2976-2989

Accurate snow accumulation and melt simulations are crucial for understanding and predicting hydrological dynamics in mountainous settings. As snow models require temporally varying meteorological inputs, time resolution of these inputs is likely to play an important role on the model accuracy. Because meteorological data at a fine temporal resolution (~1 hr) are generally not available in many snow‐dominated settings, it is important to evaluate the role of meteorological inputs temporal resolution on the performance of process‐based snow models. The objective of this work is to assess the loss in model accuracy with temporal resolution of meteorological inputs, for a range of climatic conditions and topographic elevations. To this end, a process‐based snow model was run using 1‐, 3‐, and 6‐hourly inputs for wet, average, and dry years over Boise River Basin (6,963 km²), which spans rain dominated (≤1,400 m), rain–snow transition (>1,400 and ≤1,900 m), snow dominated below tree line (>1,900 and ≤2,400 m), and above tree line (>2,400 m) elevations. The results show that sensitivity of the model accuracy to the inputs time step generally decreases with increasing elevation from rain dominated to snow dominated above tree line. Using longer than hourly inputs causes substantial underestimation of snow cover area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) in rain‐dominated and rain–snow transition elevations, due to the precipitation phase mischaracterization. In snow‐dominated elevations, the melt rate is underestimated due to errors in estimation of net snow cover energy input. In addition, the errors in SCA and SWE estimates generally decrease toward years with low snow mass, that is, dry years. The results indicate significant increases in errors in estimates of SCA and SWE as the temporal resolution of meteorological inputs becomes coarser than an hour. However, use of 3‐hourly inputs can provide accurate estimates at snow‐dominated elevations. The study underscores the need to record meteorological variables at an hourly time step for accurate process‐based snow modelling.  相似文献   

Impact of an unsealed forest road stream crossing: water quality and sediment sources     

Patrick N. J. Lane  Gary J. Sheridan 《水文研究》2002,16(13):2599-2612

Turbidity monitoring and rainfall and runoff simulation experiments were conducted at a newly constructed unsealed road stream crossing to determine the quantity and sources of sediment entering the stream. Continuous measurements of turbidity and estimation of total suspended solids (TSS) concentration upstream and downstream of the stream culvert were taken over a 5 month period. There was a statistically significant difference in turbidity and TSS downstream of the crossing during baseflow conditions, but the quality of the water column remained good during non‐rain periods. Rainfall events comprised around 20% of the observation period and led to decreases in water quality downstream of the crossing. Water quality could be considered as degraded for 10% of the observations. This was during a period when the rainfall was 65% of the long‐term average. Calculated suspended sediment loads were 0·78 t upstream and 2·77 t downstream, an increase of 3·5. It was estimated that at least 2–3 t of bedload material was also added to the stream during the crossing construction and from subsequent erosion. This material is a deposit on the cobble stream bed, and is most likely to degrade aquatic ecosystem values. Rainfall and runoff simulation revealed the principal sediment sources to be a fillslope that contributed coarse bedload material through rill erosion and unprotected toe scour, and the unmetalled road verge that provided fines. Although the quality of water column was good for the majority of the observations, the new Australian and New Zealand Water Quality Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Waters suggest this site exceeded ‘trigger levels’ that would warrant further investigation for both the water column and the bed deposits. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献