On using a generalized linear model to downscale daily precipitation for the center of Portugal: an analysis of trends and extremes     

Mário Pulquério  Pedro Garrett  Filipe Duarte Santos  Maria João Cruz 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,120(1-2):147-158

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POLARIX: a pathfinder mission of X-ray polarimetry     

Enrico Costa  Ronaldo Bellazzini  Gianpiero Tagliaferri  Giorgio Matt  Andrea Argan  Primo Attinà  Luca Baldini  Stefano Basso  Alessandro Brez  Oberto Citterio  Sergio Di Cosimo  Vincenzo Cotroneo  Sergio Fabiani  Marco Feroci  Antonella Ferri  Luca Latronico  Francesco Lazzarotto  Massimo Minuti  Ennio Morelli  Fabio Muleri  Lucio Nicolini  Giovanni Pareschi  Giuseppe Di Persio  Michele Pinchera  Massimiliano Razzano  Luigia Reboa  Alda Rubini  Antonio Maria Salonico  Carmelo Sgro’  Paolo Soffitta  Gloria Spandre  Daniele Spiga  Alessio Trois 《Experimental Astronomy》2010,28(2-3):137-183

Since the birth of X-ray astronomy, spectral, spatial and timing observation improved dramatically, procuring a wealth of information on the majority of the classes of the celestial sources. Polarimetry, instead, remained basically unprobed. X-ray polarimetry promises to provide additional information procuring two new observable quantities, the degree and the angle of polarization. Polarization from celestial X-ray sources may derive from emission mechanisms themselves such as cyclotron, synchrotron and non-thermal bremsstrahlung, from scattering in aspheric accreting plasmas, such as disks, blobs and columns and from the presence of extreme magnetic field by means of vacuum polarization and birefringence. Matter in strong gravity fields and Quantum Gravity effects can be studied by X-ray polarimetry, too. POLARIX is a mission dedicated to X-ray polarimetry. It exploits the polarimetric response of a Gas Pixel Detector, combined with position sensitivity, that, at the focus of a telescope, results in a huge increase of sensitivity. The heart of the detector is an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) chip with 105,600 pixels each one containing a full complete electronic chain to image the track produced by the photoelectron. Three Gas Pixel Detectors are coupled with three X-ray optics which are the heritage of JET-X mission. A filter wheel hosting calibration sources unpolarized and polarized is dedicated to each detector for periodic on-ground and in-flight calibration. POLARIX will measure time resolved X-ray polarization with an angular resolution of about 20 arcsec in a field of view of 15 × 15 arcmin and with an energy resolution of 20% at 6 keV. The Minimum Detectable Polarization is 12% for a source having a flux of 1 mCrab and 10⁵ s of observing time. The satellite will be placed in an equatorial orbit of 505 km of altitude by a Vega launcher. The telemetry down-link station will be Malindi. The pointing of POLARIX satellite will be gyroless and it will perform a double pointing during the earth occultation of one source, so maximizing the scientific return. POLARIX data are for 75% open to the community while 25% + SVP (Science Verification Phase, 1 month of operation) is dedicated to a core program activity open to the contribution of associated scientists. The planned duration of the mission is one year plus three months of commissioning and SVP, suitable to perform most of the basic science within the reach of this instrument. A nice to have idea is to use the same existing mandrels to build two additional telescopes of iridium with carbon coating plus two more detectors. The effective area in this case would be almost doubled.  相似文献   

Marine debris review for Latin America and the wider Caribbean region: from the 1970s until now, and where do we go from here?   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ivar do Sul JA  Costa MF 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(8):1087-1104

The available literature on marine debris from Latin America and the Wider Caribbean Region was collected and linked, reviewing their methodologies and principal results (quantities, composition and spatial-temporal patterns). The study region comprises 52 coastal countries of which only 14 had registers of works on marine debris. A total of 70 works were available and 69 had their full contents accessed. Brazil dominated the available literature with 70% of the documents. Beaches were the most studied environment, and plastics the prevalent form of contamination in the whole region. The exposure of marine biota (species, type of contact, consequences) was highlighted. The studied region, although still little exploited by this sort of research, shows the same contamination patterns observed world-wide. We also contacted 40 researchers in the area, collecting scientific contributions, opinions and suggestions for improvement of this research field. Further advances and new (urgently needed) lines of research are also discussed.  相似文献   

Recent Developments in the Analysis of the Black Mat Layer and Cosmic Impact at 12.8 ka     

William C. Mahaney  Leslie Keiser  David H. Krinsley  Allen West  Randy Dirszowsky  Chris C.R. Allen  Pedro Costa 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2014,96(1):99-111

Recent analyses of sediment samples from “black mat” sites in South America and Europe support previous interpretations of an ET impact event that reversed the Late Glacial demise of LGM ice during the Bølling Allerød warming, resulting in a resurgence of ice termed the Younger Dryas (YD) cooling episode. The breakup or impact of a cosmic vehicle at the YD boundary coincides with the onset of a 1‐kyr long interval of glacial resurgence, one of the most studied events of the Late Pleistocene. New analytical databases reveal a corpus of data indicating that the cosmic impact was a real event, most possibly a cosmic airburst from Earth's encounter with the Taurid Complex comet or unknown asteroid, an event that led to cosmic fragments exploding interhemispherically over widely dispersed areas, including the northern Andes of Venezuela and the Alps on the Italian/French frontier. While the databases in the two areas differ somewhat, the overall interpretation is that microtextural evidence in weathering rinds and in sands of associated paleosols and glaciofluvial deposits carry undeniable attributes of melted glassy carbon and Fe spherules, planar deformation features, shock‐melted and contorted quartz, occasional transition and platinum metals, and brecciated and impacted minerals of diverse lithologies. In concert with other black mat localities in the Western USA, the Netherlands, coastal France, Syria, Central Asia, Peru, Argentina and Mexico, it appears that a widespread cosmic impact by an asteroid or comet is responsible for deposition of the black mat at the onset of the YD glacial event. Whether or not the impact caused a 1‐kyr interval of glacial climate depends upon whether or not the Earth had multiple centuries‐long episodic encounters with the Taurid Complex or asteroid remnants; impact‐related changes in microclimates sustained climatic forcing sufficient to maintain positive mass balances in the reformed ice; and/or inertia in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation system persisted for 1 kyr.  相似文献   

Evaluating the fitness for use of spatial data sets to promote quality in ecological assessment and monitoring     

Isabel Pôças  João Gonçalves  Bruno Marcos  Joaquim Alonso  Pedro Castro  João P. Honrado 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(11):2356-2371

This article proposes and illustrates a practical methodological framework to evaluate the fitness for use of spatial data sets for environmental and ecological applications, focusing on user requirements for specified application contexts. The methodology is based on the use of metadata to analyze similarity between the data characteristics and the user’s needs or expectations for several quality indicators. Additionally, the concept of ‘critical factors’ is introduced in this framework, allowing users to define which quality indicators have greater importance given their own requirements or expectations and the specified application contexts. The proposed methodology further allows integrating and interconnecting the spatial data quality (SDQ) evaluation methodology with metadata geoportals in WebGIS platforms, facilitating its operation by users from non-spatial disciplines and with often limited expertise on this subject. Examples of the evaluation of fitness for use for specific application contexts within the project BIO_SOS (‘Biodiversity Multi-SOurce Monitoring System: From Space To Species’ FP7 project) are presented. By providing a prompt and straightforward evaluation tool, the proposed methodology can encourage the implementation of SDQ evaluation routines in ecological assessment and monitoring programs, promoting a more adequate use of geospatial data and ultimately contributing to well-supported policy and management decisions.  相似文献   

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates     

Jean Pierre Ometto  Ana Paula Aguiar  Talita Assis  Luciana Soler  Pedro Valle  Graciela Tejada  David M. Lapola  Patrick Meir 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):545-560

As land use change (LUC), including deforestation, is a patchy process, estimating the impact of LUC on carbon emissions requires spatially accurate underlying data on biomass distribution and change. The methods currently adopted to estimate the spatial variation of above- and below-ground biomass in tropical forests, in particular the Brazilian Amazon, are usually based on remote sensing analyses coupled with field datasets, which tend to be relatively scarce and often limited in their spatial distribution. There are notable differences among the resulting biomass maps found in the literature. These differences subsequently result in relatively high uncertainties in the carbon emissions calculated from land use change, and have a larger impact when biomass maps are coded into biomass classes referring to specific ranges of biomass values. In this paper we analyze the differences among recently-published biomass maps of the Amazon region, including the official information used by the Brazilian government for its communication to the United Nation Framework on Climate Change Convention of the United Nations. The estimated average pre-deforestation biomass in the four maps, for the areas of the Amazon region that had been deforested during the 1990–2009 period, varied from 205?±?32 Mg ha^?1 during 1990–1999, to 216?±?31 Mg ha^?1 during 2000–2009. The biomass values of the deforested areas in 2011 were between 7 and 24 % higher than for the average deforested areas during 1990–1999, suggesting that although there was variation in the mean value, deforestation was tending to occur in increasingly carbon-dense areas, with consequences for carbon emissions. To summarize, our key findings were: (i) the current maps of Amazonian biomass show substantial variation in both total biomass and its spatial distribution; (ii) carbon emissions estimates from deforestation are highly dependent on the spatial distribution of biomass as determined by any single biomass map, and on the deforestation process itself; (iii) future deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is likely to affect forests with higher biomass than those deforested in the past, resulting in smaller reductions in carbon dioxide emissions than expected purely from the recent reductions in deforestation rates; and (iv) the current official estimate of carbon emissions from Amazonian deforestation is probably overestimated, because the recent loss of higher-biomass forests has not been taken into account.  相似文献   

Impact of improved assimilation of temperature and salinity for coupled model seasonal forecasts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mei Zhao  Harry H. Hendon  Oscar Alves  Yonghong Yin 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2565-2583

We assess the impact of improved ocean initial conditions for predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) coupled seasonal prediction model for the period 1982–2006. The new ocean initial conditions are provided by an ensemble-based analysis system that assimilates subsurface temperatures and salinity and which is a clear improvement over the previous optimal interpolation system which used static error covariances and was univariate (temperature only). Hindcasts using the new ocean initial conditions have better skill at predicting sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with ENSO than do the hindcasts initialized with the old ocean analyses. The improvement derives from better prediction of subsurface temperatures and the largest improvements come during ENSO–IOD neutral years. We show that improved prediction of the Niño3.4 SST index derives from improved initial depiction of the thermocline and halocline in the equatorial Pacific but as lead time increases the improved depiction of the initial salinity field in the western Pacific become more important. Improved ocean initial conditions do not translate into improved skill for predicting the IOD but we do see an improvement in the prediction of subsurface temperatures in the Indian Ocean (IO). This result reflects that the coupling between subsurface and surface temperature variations is weaker in the IO than in the Pacific, but coupled model errors may also be limiting predictive skill in the IO.  相似文献   

ENSO,the IOD and the intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA-2     

Christopher J. White  Debra Hudson  Oscar Alves 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):1791-1810

The simulation and prediction of extreme heat over Australia on intraseasonal timescales in association with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is assessed using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The analysis is based on hindcasts over 1981–2010 and focuses on weeks 2 and 3 of the forecasts, i.e. beyond a typical weather forecast. POAMA simulates the observed increased probabilities of extreme heat during El Niño events, focussed over south eastern and southern Australia in SON and over northern Australia in DJF, and the decreased probabilities of extreme heat during La Niña events, although the magnitude of these relationships is smaller than observed. POAMA also captures the signal of increased probabilities of extreme heat during positive phases of the IOD across southern Australia in SON and over Western Australia in JJA, but again underestimates the strength of the relationship. Shortcomings in the simulation of extreme heat in association with ENSO and the IOD over southern Australia may be linked to deficiencies in the teleconnection with Indian Ocean SSTs. Forecast skill for intraseasonal episodes of extreme heat is assessed using the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index. Skill is highest over northern Australia in MAM and JJA and over south-eastern and eastern Australia in JJA and SON, whereas skill is generally poor over south-west Western Australia. Results show there are windows of forecast opportunity related to the state of ENSO and the IOD, where the skill in predicting extreme temperatures over certain regions is increased.  相似文献   

Avalanche and landslide simulation using the material point method: flow dynamics and force interaction with structures   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Carter M. Mast  Pedro Arduino  Gregory R. Miller  Peter Mackenzie-Helnwein 《Computational Geosciences》2014,18(5):817-830

In this paper, the material point method (MPM) is presented as a tool for simulating large deformation, gravity-driven landslides. The primary goal is to assess the interaction of these flow-like events with the built environment. This includes an evaluation of earthen mounds when energy dissipating devices are placed in the path of a snow avalanche. The effectiveness of the embankments is characterized using displacement, velocity, mass, and energy measures. A second example quantifies the force interaction between a landslide and a square rigid column. Multiple slide approach angles are considered, and various aspects of the impact force are discussed.  相似文献   

Iron ore mining promotes iron enrichment in sediments of the Gualaxo do Norte River basin,Minas Gerais State,Brazil     

Aline Sueli de Lima Rodrigues  Guilherme Malafaia  Adivane Terezinha Costa  Hermínio Arias Nalini Júnior 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(9):4177-4186

The objective of the present study is to assess the influence of iron ore mining on Fe concentrations in fluvial sediments of the Gualaxo do Norte River basin (Minas Gerais State, Brazil). Initially background values were determined for Fe by means of the boxplot representation, the iterative 2σ technique and the calculated distribution function, using geochemical data obtained for alluvial terraces. Geochronologic analyses in carbonaceous materials attested for the proposed background values. After that, chemical analyses of active drainage sediments collected along the entire basin were carried out and a geochemical map of the study area was prepared. The mean background value for Fe is relatively high (8.2 wt %), when compared to the Fe concentration in the Earth’s crust (5.6 wt %). Such background value is strongly associated with the geological characteristics of the region. It was observed that most of the high Fe concentrations were detected in active sediments collected in the main river of the basin and not in its tributaries. This suggests that Fe enrichment is not only linked to the local geology but also to possible increase resulting from accidental leakage of iron ore mining tailings from containment dams and lakes upstream. It is suggested that measures that help stop or minimize such impact be adopted. The large capacity of Fe to adsorb and form complexes with toxic metals implicates in environmental hazards that may not be restricted only to the Gualaxo do Norte river basin, but may affect the other basins downstream.  相似文献