Ocean–atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO     

Hye-Mi Kim  Carlos D. Hoyos  Peter J. Webster  In-Sik Kang 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(5):771-784

The influence of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the simulation and prediction of the boreal winter Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and atmospheric—only model (AGCM). The AGCM is forced with daily SSTs interpolated from pentad mean CGCM SSTs. Forecast skill is examined using serial extended simulations spanning 26 different winter seasons with 30-day forecasts commencing every 5 days providing a total of 598 30-day simulations. By comparing both sets of experiments, which share the same atmospheric components, the influence of coupled ocean–atmosphere processes on the simulation and prediction of MJO can be studied. The mean MJO intensity possesses more realistic amplitude in the CGCM than in AGCM. In general, the ocean–atmosphere coupling acts to improve the simulation of the spatio-temporal evolution of the eastward propagating MJO and the phase relationship between convection (OLR) and SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. Both the CGCM and observations exhibit a near-quadrature relationship between OLR and SST, with the former lagging by about two pentads. However, the AGCM shows a less realistic phase relationship. As the initial conditions are the same in both models, the additional forcing by SST anomalies in the CGCM extends the prediction skill beyond that of the AGCM. To test the applicability of the CGCM to real-time prediction, we compute the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and compared it with the index computed from observations. RMM1 (RMM2) falls away rapidly to 0.5 after 17–18 (15–16) days in the AGCM and 18–19 (16–17) days in the CGCM. The prediction skill is phase dependent in both the CGCM and AGCM.  相似文献   

Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change     

Mauro Dall’Amico  Peter A. Stott  Adam A. Scaife  Lesley J. Gray  Karen H. Rosenlof  Alexey Yu. Karpechko 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):399-417

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.  相似文献   

Participatory modeling in dairy farm systems: a method for building consensual environmental sustainability using seasonal climate forecasts     

Victor E. Cabrera  Norman E. Breuer  Peter E. Hildebrand 《Climatic change》2008,89(3-4):395-409

Dairy farmers face increasing pressure to decrease environmental impact while remaining economically viable. Adaptation of farm management practices in response to seasonal climate forecasts may be one means of achieving these objectives. This paper describes the interactive and iterative process by which farmers, researchers, extension agents, regulatory agencies, and other stakeholders collaborated to create, calibrate, and validate the Dynamic North Florida Dairy Farm model (DyNoFlo), a whole-farm decision support system to decrease nitrogen leaching while maintaining profitability under variable climate conditions. Participatory modeling may enhance the creation of adoptable and adaptable user-friendly models that include environmental, economic and biophysical components. By providing farmers, policy makers, and other stakeholders with a more holistic view of current practices, common ground among them was more easily identified and collaboration was fostered. Farmer values included willingness to be good environmental stewards when they are profitable. The participatory research and development process enhanced understanding of and potential adaptation to seasonal climate variability conditioned to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases in light of increasing environmental regulations and economic challenges. Adoption of the collaboratively-developed DyNoFlo is expected to be higher than usual because stakeholders feel greater ownership of the final product.  相似文献   

A robust sequential CO2 emissions strategy based on optimal control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations     

Andrew J. Jarvis  Peter C. Young  David T. Leedal  Arun Chotai 《Climatic change》2008,86(3-4):357-373

This paper formally introduces the concept of mitigation as a stochastic control problem. This is illustrated by applying a digital state variable feedback control approach known as Non-Minimum State Space (NMSS) control to the problem of specifying carbon emissions to control atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the presence of uncertainty. It is shown that the control approach naturally lends itself to integrating both anticipatory and reflexive mitigation strategies within a single unified framework. The framework explicitly considers the closed-loop nature of climate mitigation, and employs a policy orientated optimisation procedure to specify the properties of this closed-loop system. The product of this exercise is a control law that is suitably conditioned to regulate atmospheric CO₂ concentrations through assimilating online information within a 25-year review cycle framework. It is shown that the optimal control law is also robust when faced with significant levels of uncertainty about the functioning of the global carbon cycle.  相似文献   

Editorial: Special Issue on Regional Climate Studies     

Lance M. Leslie  Yuqing Wang  Dong-Kyou Lee  Peter J. Lamb 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2008,100(1-4):1-1

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Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Bert de Vries  Arthur Beusen  Peter S.C. Heuberger 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(4):635

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.  相似文献   

Relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change     

Jeffery R. Scott  Andrei P. Sokolov  Peter H. Stone  Mort D. Webster 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(5):441-454

The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO₂ forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO₂-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO₂-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO₂ stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.  相似文献   

Preface: Workshop on matter,astrophysics, gravitation,ions and cosmology—MAGIC23     

César A. Zen Vasconcellos  Dimiter Hadjimichef  Magno Machado  Benno Bodmann  Marcelo Netz-Marzola  Geovane Naysinger  Mariana Vargas Magaña  Peter O. Hess  Horst Stöcker  Steven Gullberg  Remo Ruffini 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2024,345(2-3):e240029

We outline our experience in organizing the first edition of the Workshop on Matter, Astrophysics, Gravitation, Ions and Cosmology, held in virtual and in-person format, denominated MAGIC23, held from 6 to 10 March, 2023, in Praia do Rosa, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The event aimed to bring together leading academic scientists, professors, students, and research scholars for exchanging experiences and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, practical challenges, and experimental and theoretical solutions adopted in the investigation fields within the scope of the meeting. The workshop offered to the participants a platform for scientific and academic projects, partnerships, and presentation of high-quality research contributions describing original and unpublished results on topics related to matter, astrophysics, gravitation, ions, and cosmology.  相似文献   

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Till Kuhlbrodt  Stefan Rahmstorf  Kirsten Zickfeld  Frode Bendiksen Vikebø  Svein Sundby  Matthias Hofmann  Peter Michael Link  Alberte Bondeau  Wolfgang Cramer  Carlo Jaeger 《Climatic change》2009,96(4):489-537

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.  相似文献   

Connection between ozone concentration and atmosphere circulation at peak Moussala     

Peter Nojarov  Peter Ivanov  Ivo Kalapov  Ilia Penev  Mirolujba Drenska 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,98(1-2):201-208

Connection between ozone concentration and atmosphere circulation is investigated based on measurements at BEO station, peak Moussala (2,925 m a.s.l.), for the period 09 August 2006 to 29 January 2008. Ozone concentration data are collected with UV-analyzer “Environnement O₃ 42” and meteo data with weather station “Vaisala”. There are measurements of ⁷Be. Data from NOAA HYSPLIT model for particle trajectories are also used. Eight wind directions and three ranges of wind velocities are employed in the analysis. A comparison of ozone concentrations in upward and downward air transport according to HYSPLIT model is made. The number of cases with ozone concentration above 63 ppb has been counted. Mann–Whitney nonparametric test is employed as a basic statistical method. Correlation between atmosphere pressure and tropospheric ozone content is made. The same is done for ⁷Be and ozone. The main conclusion is that there is not any local or regional pollution effect detectable at peak Moussala, but most of the ozone measured is due to emissions of hydrocarbons and NO _x over a larger region. There could be some regional sources of ozone building substances in southwest direction from peak Moussala. Air transported from the north quarter has higher ozone concentrations compared to the south quarter. In vertical direction, upward transport of air masses shows higher values of ozone concentration. Higher wind velocity is associated with low ozone concentrations at peak Moussala. The annual course of ozone concentration has summer maximum and winter minimum. There is right connection between air pressure and ozone concentration. The same is valid for the correlation between ⁷Be and ozone. Diurnal ozone course shows daytime maximum in winter and nighttime maximum in summer.  相似文献