Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mauro?Bernardi  Fabrizio?DuranteEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Piotr?Jaworski  Lea?Petrella  Gianfausto?Salvadori 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(1):203-211

We present a novel methodology to compute conditional risk measures when the conditioning event depends on a number of random variables. Specifically, given a random vector \((\mathbf {X},Y)\), we consider risk measures that express the risk of Y given that \(\mathbf {X}\) assumes values in an extreme multidimensional region. In particular, the considered risky regions are related to the AND, OR, Kendall and Survival Kendall hazard scenarios that are commonly used in environmental literature. Several closed formulas are considered (especially in the AND and OR scenarios). An application to spatial risk analysis involving real data is discussed.  相似文献   

An erosional origin for drumlins of NW Poland     

Piotr Hermanowski  Jan A. Piotrowski  Izabela Szuman 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(10):2030-2050

Drumlins are landforms essential to understanding of ice sheet movement over soft beds, sediment transport along the ice/bed interface, and the formation of a wide range of glacial deposits. Although investigated more than any other glacial landform, the origin of drumlins remains contentious. Using high-resolution LiDAR imagery and field data, we investigate the geomorphology and internal composition of one of the biggest drumlin fields in the North European Lowland. The Stargard drumlin field consists of over 1300 drumlins and related streamlined subglacial bedforms in a terminal part of a major Weichselian palaeo-ice stream of the southern Scandinavian Ice Sheet. The drumlins are typically 600-800 m long, 200-250 m wide, 3-6 m high and have axial elongation ratios ~2 but in some cases exceeding 15. Several subzones inferred from drumlin morphometry exist reflecting different ice flow dynamics. The most elongated drumlins occur in areas where ice moved down-slope and where thick fine-grained deposits of low hydraulic conductivity occur in the substratum. The largest portion of land occupied by drumlins and the greatest frequency density of drumlins occur where the ice moved up-slope. Stargard drumlins are composed of a wide variety of glacial deposits including various types of tills and meltwater sediments, which range from undisturbed to heavily deformed. There is no correlation between the deposits in the drumlins and the drumlin forms indicating that the deposits pre-date the drumlinizing process. It is suggested that the drumlin field was generated by a combination of direct glacial erosion and subglacial meltwater erosion by removing antecedent material from the inter-drumlin areas and streamlining the resultant bumps. Our data support the search for a unifying theory of drumlin formation and suggest erosion as the most plausible single mechanism generating drumlin landscapes. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic parameters in a flood impacted boulder block ramp: Krzczonówka mountain stream,Polish Carpathians     

Artur Radecki-Pawlik  Karol Plesiński  Bartosz Radecki-Pawlik  Piotr Kuboń  Russell Manson 《山地科学学报》2018,15(11):2335-2346

Boulder block ramps are river engineering structures used to stabilise river beds. Block ramps provide a semi-natural and aesthetically pleasing solution to certain river engineering problems in mountain streams. When constructing block ramps,one can use the dissipative behaviour of large macroroughness elements randomly placed on the river bed to enhance fish migration in an upstream direction thus, in this sense, meeting the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive. Block ramps are often designed and constructed to replace damaged drop hydraulic structures in the channels of mountain streams. This paper investigates the resilience of a particular block ramp placed in the Krzczonówka stream(Polish Carpathians) in terms of the engineering design function and its durability against damaging. A hydrodynamic analysis of a block ramp is presented before and after a flood event that changed the configuration of the blocks. The seminatural unstructured hydraulic structure was built on the Krzczonowka stream to protect gas pipes which are located beneath it. As a result of several floods, the boulder block chute described in this paper was damaged, and some boulders were dislodged and transported downstream. Our post-flood investigations of bathymetry and velocity revealed that even damaged boulder blocks, removed from the chute and displaced downstream of the structure, still provide significant energy dissipation of the flowing water. The novel of our paper is for the first time showing very detailed analysis of unstructured block ramp hydrodynamics parameters done in the field.Also the novel finding of our investigations shows that before and after the flood event the unstructured block ramp structure, is still fish friendly in terms of hydrodynamics.  相似文献   

The 1989 May outburst of the soft X-ray transient GS 2023+338 (V404 Cyg)     

Piotr T. &#;ycki  †  Chris Done †  David A. Smith 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,309(3):561-575

We reanalyse archival Ginga data of the soft X-ray transient source GS 2023+338 covering the beginning of its 1989 May outburst. The source showed a number of rather unusual features: very high and apparently saturated luminosity, dramatic flux and spectral variability (often on ∼1 s time-scale), and generally very hard spectrum, with no obvious soft thermal component characteristic for soft/high state.
We describe the spectrum obtained at the maximum of flux and we demonstrate that it is very different from spectra of other soft X-ray transients at similar luminosity. We confirm previous suggestions that the dramatic variability was the result of heavy and strongly variable photoelectric absorption. We also demonstrate that for a short time the spectrum of the source did look like a typical soft/high state spectrum but that this coincided with very heavy absorption.  相似文献   

Transit time determination for a riverbank filtration system using oxygen isotope data and the lumped-parameter model     

Krisztina Kármán  Piotr Maloszewski  József Deák  István Fórizs  Csaba Szabó 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1109-1116

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Mapping the porosity of international border to pedestrian traffic: a comparative data classification approach to a study of the border region in Austria,Italy, and Slovenia     

Nao Hisakawa  Piotr Jankowski  Gernot Paulus 《制图学和地理信息科学》2013,40(1):18-27

National borders play an important role in everyday life. Interest in border studies has increased with recent changes in geographical locations of the border or the fluctuation of the permeability of the border between some countries, such as in the European Union. Whether the nations are trying to increase traffic flow of the border or to implement stricter border control, having appropriate information of the border is crucial for effective policymaking.

The objective of this research was to identify areas of high porosity, or high permeability, for pedestrians along the southern national border region in Carinthia, Austria using terrain, land use, and road data along with geocomputational methods. Two unsupervised classification methods, the fuzzy K-means clustering and the Self-Organizing Map, were applied to segment the border into homogeneous zones according to topographic and infrastructural attributes. The fuzzy K-means clustering method was chosen for its ability to allow for a continuous approach to classification. With this method, an object can belong, with different degrees of membership, to multiple classes, which is a more realistic reflection of the natural world than discrete clustering, where each object can only belong to one class. However, the fuzzy K-means clustering method does have disadvantages, i.e. the user must determine the number of classes and the input parameters are required to be in continuous format. The second classification method, the Self-Organizing Map, is a type of artificial neural network and was chosen for its ability to automatically determine the number of classes and handle categorical data. The Self-Organizing Map is unique because it can transform high dimensional data into low dimensional display while preserving the topology and spatial distribution of the input parameters. The results of the two classification methods suggest that the fuzzy K-means classification is more effective than the Self-Organizing Map for this situation. However, more research is needed to determine the fit of these algorithms for particular spatial data classification tasks.

The results obtained from this research provide an insight into the permeability of the border region of Carinthia, Slovenia, and Italy to pedestrian traffic and can be potentially useful for decision making processes for tourism development and road transportation management in that region. Furthermore, the approach presented in this article can be applied to other national borders to identify zones permeable to pedestrian traffic.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of catastrophic flood: the case study of hypothetical failure of the Bielkowo hydro-power plant reservoir     

Michał Szydłowski  Wojciech Szpakowski  Piotr Zima 《Acta Geophysica》2013,61(5):1229-1245

The numerical modeling of flood wave propagation following the hypothetical breaks of the embankments of the Bielkowo hydro-power plant storage reservoir (Kolbudy II Reservoir) on the Radunia River in Poland has been presented. The results of computations were used to estimate the parameters of the flood waves, which are indispensable for the flood zone determination and mapping and then for the flood risk analysis. When estimating the reach and area of the inundation, related to the embankments failures, digital terrain model, and mathematical model of flood wave propagation are necessary. For the numerical simulations of flood, the mathematical model of free surface, two-dimensional unsteady water flow was applied. Four locations of potential breaks of the reservoir embankments were considered. The computed flood zones were presented on the flood hazard maps. The maps have been used by the local authorities and the dam owner to manage the flood risk related to hydro-power plants operations on the Radunia River. This type of research has been done for the first time for the water plant managed by the ENERGA Elektrownie Straszyn.  相似文献   

Landforms and landscape evolution in the Mylliem Granite Area,Meghalaya Plateau,Northeast India     

Piotr Migoń  Paweł Prokop 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2013,34(2):206-228

The Mylliem granite is one of many igneous bodies within the basement complex of the Meghalaya Plateau, northeast India. Although relatively small in size at c. 90 km², it is very diverse geomorphologically and shows a range of distinctive landscapes within its limits. Relict flat watershed ridges and topographic basins characterize the northern and eastern part of the pluton, whereas to the southwest the relief becomes higher, with steeper hillslopes and deeply incised valleys. Deep weathering and thick saprolites are abundant, as are residual landforms resulting from stripping of the saprolite: domes, tors and boulders. The major reason behind the diversity of granite landscape of the Mylliem pluton is the progress of headward erosion, initiated at the Dauki fault in the south of the Meghalaya. Headward erosion enhances local relief and hence, weathering systems. Multi‐concave morphology is gradually transformed into multi‐convex one, which is hypothesized to be the specific mode of plateau evolution and scarp retreat in granite bedrock.  相似文献   

Integrating geographical information systems and multiple criteria decision-making methods     

Piotr Jankowski 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(3):251-273

Abstract

Many spatial decision-making problems, such as site selection or land use allocation require the decision-maker to consider the impacts of choice-alternatives along multiple dimensions in order to choose the best alternative. The decision-making process, involving policy priorities, trade-offs, and uncertainties, can be aided by Multiple Criteria Decision making (MCDM) methods. This paper presents a framework for integrating geographical information systems (GIS) and MCDM methods. In this framework the MCDM methods are classified and matched with choice heuristics used by the decision-makers in the presence of competing alternatives and multiple evaluation criteria. Two strategies for integrating GIS with MCDM are proposed. The first strategy suggests linking GIS and MCDM techniques using a file exchange mechanism. The second strategy suggests integrating GIS and MCDM functions using a common database. The paper presents the implementation of the first strategy using PC-ARC/INFO, a file exchange module, and four different MCDM computer programs.  相似文献   

Lidar and the mobile Scene Modeler (mSM) as scientific tools for planetary exploration     

Gordon R. Osinski  Timothy D. Barfoot  Matt Izawa  Piotr Jasiobedzki  Robert Richards  Haley Sapers  Roberta Flemming 《Planetary and Space Science》2010,58(4):691-700

With the continued success of the Mars Exploration Rovers and the return of humans to the Moon within the next decade, a considerable amount of research is being done on the technologies required to provide surface mobility and the tools required to provide scientific capability. Here, we explore the utility of lidar and the mobile Scene Modeler (mSM) - which is based on a stereo camera system - as scientific tools. Both of these technologies have been, or are being considered for, technological applications such as autonomous satellite rendezvous and rover navigation. We carried out a series of field tests at the 23 km diameter, 39 Ma, Haughton impact structure located on Devon Island in the Canadian Arctic. Several sites of geological interest were investigated, including polygonal terrain, gullies and channels, slump/collapse features, impact melt breccia hills, and a site of impact-associated hydrothermal mineralization. These field tests show that lidar and mSM provide a superior visual record of the terrain, from the regional (km) to outcrop (m to cm) scale and in 3-D, as compared to standard digital photography. Thus, a key strength of these technologies is in situ reconnaissance and documentation. Lidar scans also provide a wealth of geometric and structural information about a site, accomplishing the equivalent of weeks to months of manual surveying and with much greater accuracy than traditional tools, making this extremely useful for planetary exploration missions. An unexpected result of these field tests is the potential for lidar and mSM to provide qualitative, and potentially quantitative, composition information about a site. Given the high probability of lidar and mSM being used on future lunar missions, we suggest that it would be beneficial to further investigate the potential for these technologies to be used as science tools.  相似文献