Stochastic simulations of the Madden�CJulian oscillation activity     

Charles Jones  Leila M. V. Carvalho 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(1-2):229-246

The Madden?CJulian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do interannual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948?C2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880?C2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948?C1972 (3.4?events?year^?1) and two regimes of high activity in 1973?C1989 (3.9 events) and 1990?C2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880?C1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896?C1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918?C1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880?C1895), 0.076 (1896?C1917), 0.197 (1918?C1947) and 0.193 (1948?C1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973?C1989) and 0.510 (1990?C2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.  相似文献   

The South Atlantic dipole and variations in the characteristics of the South American Monsoon in the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model simulations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Rodrigo J. Bombardi  Leila M. V. Carvalho 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(11-12):2091-2102

This study investigates relationships between Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the variability of the characteristics of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), such as the onset dates and total precipitation over central eastern Brazil. The observed onset and total summer monsoon precipitation are estimated for the period 1979?C2007. SST patterns are obtained from the Empirical Orthogonal Function. It is shown that variations in SST on interannual timescales over the South Atlantic Ocean play an important role in the total summer monsoon precipitation. Negative (positive) SST anomalies over the topical South Atlantic along with positive (negative) SST anomalies over the extratropical South Atlantic are associated with early (late) onsets and wet (dry) summers over southeastern Brazil and late (early) onset and dry (wet) summers over northeastern Brazil. Simulations from Phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3) are assessed for the 20th century climate scenario (1971?C2000). Most CMIP3 coupled models reproduce the main modes of variability of the South Atlantic Ocean. GFDL2.0 and MIROC-M are the models that best represent the SST variability over the South Atlantic. On the other hand, these models do not succeed in representing the relationship between SST and SAMS variability.  相似文献   

Distribution of metals in soils and plants around mineralized zones at Cartagena-La Unión mining district (SE,Spain)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

O. Gonzalez-Fernandez  I. Queralt  J. I. Manteca  G. Garcia  M. L. Carvalho 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,63(6):1227-1237

A geochemical and mineralogical characterization of three zones (namely oxides zones, hydrothermal alteration zone and mining wastes zone) from a mineralized zone in the upper part of the Cartagena-La Unión range was carried out by analysing rocks, soils and three plant species (Piptatherum miliaceum, Ditrichia viscosa and Hirsfeldia incana). The transference and bioavailability of some metals (especially Pb, Zn, As and Fe) from soils to plants was also checked. Results show that rocks have a large content of Fe and Pb which are transferred to surrounding soils also highly enriched in these elements (Fe ranges from 9 to 35% and Pb 1 to 2.9%). Regarding soil to plant transfer, it was shown a differential behaviour for both the three plant species and the soil zones, with a higher level of metal accumulation rates for Piptatherum miliaceum in the hydrothermal alteration zone. Values of accumulation rates obtained for Pb in Piptatherum miliaceum allow considering it a good choice for phytoremediation purposes.  相似文献   

Chemistry of the Ferraria thermal water, S. Miguel Island, Azores: mixing and precipitation processes   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Maria do Rosário Carvalho  António Mateus  Jo?o C. Nunes  José M. Carvalho 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(2):539-547

The Ferraria thermal water emerges at the sea level in the Ferraria lava delta (western edge of S. Miguel Island, Azores) with temperature of ca. 60°C and pH varying between 5.4 and 6.2. It is of sodium chloride type, resulting from ca. 50% seawater mixing with an acid brackish, at ≈100°C, denoting the presence of significant CO₂(g) and the progress of water–rock interactions in open system conditions. The thermal Na–Cl water is strongly enriched with Sr and Mn and, comparatively, has low concentrations in Al, Fe and As. These elements are removed from the solution as critical conditions for the formation of several neo-formed mineral phases are gradually attained. Thermodynamic equilibrium calculations are consistent with this interpretation, showing that the thermal fluid can precipitate Fe³⁺-(hydr-)oxides, kaolinite and non-crystalline silica. Wells logging show fracture planes and pores fully/partly filled up with polyphase botryoidal aggregates mostly composed of goethite + ferrihydrite and displaying variable adsorbed contents of Si, P and As. These neo-formed phases result from the pristine fluid oxidation due to seawater mixing; its precipitation is easily affected by pH and redox variations of the brackish, due to volcanic gases pressure alterations, and fluid pressure or flow-velocity oscillation in the fractured aquifer.  相似文献   

Geochemistry of granites and metasediments of the urban area of Vila Real (northern Portugal) and correlative radon risk   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

M. E. P. Gomes  L. J. P. F. Neves  F. Coelho  A. Carvalho  M. Sousa  A. J. S. C. Pereira 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(2):497-502

Radon concentration was evaluated in dwellings of the urban area of Vila Real (Northern Portugal). The area is mainly composed of Hercynian granites and Cambrian metasediments, and CR-39 passive detectors (n = 112) were used for the purpose. The results obtained in winter conditions suggest that the most productive geological unit is the Hercynian granite G1 (geometric mean of 364 Bq/m³), while Cambrian metasediments of the Douro Group show the lowest average indoor radon concentration (236 Bq/m³). The geological, geochemical and radiological data obtained suggest that the most effective control on the radon concentrations of the area is related with the uranium content of the rocks; indeed, the highest contents were observed in granite G1 (21 ppm) and the lowest in the metasediments (3 ppm). This is also confirmed by the results obtained for groundwater, where granites present the highest concentrations of dissolved radon (up to 938 Bq/l), uranium (5–18 ppb) and gross α activities (0.47–0.92 Bq/l). No important radiometric anomalies were found in relation with geological structures such as faults, veins and contacts, but a moderate increase of the uranium content can occur locally in such structures. Petrographic observations and SEM studies show that uranium is mainly contained within the rock in heavy accessory minerals (apatite, zircon, monazite, xenotime), which reduces radon emanation. Notwithstanding, due to the high U contents granites show a significant potential to induce indoor radon concentrations in dwellings in excess of the recommended value of 400 Bq/m³. Overall, we can conclude that the region of Vila Real presents a moderate to high radon risk in dwellings and groundwater.  相似文献   

Seasonal variability in somatic and reproductive investment of the bivalve Scrobicularia plana (da Costa, 1778) along a latitudinal gradient     

Sílvia Santos  Joana F.M.F. Cardoso  Célia Carvalho  Pieternella C. Luttikhuizen  Henk W. van der Veer 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

Monthly investment in soma and gonads in the bivalve Scrobicularia plana is described for three populations along its distributional range: Minho estuary, Portugal; Westerschelde estuary, The Netherlands and Buvika estuary, Norway. Seasonal cycles in body mass (BMI), somatic mass (SMI) and gonadal mass (GMI) indices were observed for all populations. In Portugal, BMI and SMI peaked in mid-autumn, while in The Netherlands both indices were at their highest in mid-spring. Norway showed a different pattern with two distinct peaks: one in mid-autumn and a second peak in spring. GMI reached maximum values in July in Portugal and Netherlands and in June in Norway. Overall, mean BMI and SMI were lower in Portugal while mean GMI was lower in Norway. The spawning period lasted the whole summer in Portugal, but was shorter (only two months) in The Netherlands and Norway. The reproductive investment in The Netherlands was significantly higher than in Portugal and Norway, with the lowest values being observed in Norway. Differences in annual cycles between populations were attributed to environmental factors, namely temperature and food availability. Temperature seems important in shaping the reproductive pattern with more northern populations showing shorter reproductive periods starting later in the year, and a lower reproductive output. In addition, winter water temperatures can explain the lower mean body and somatic mass values observed in Portugal. Food availability influenced the physiological performance of the species with peaks in somatic mass coinciding with phytoplankton blooms. This relation between physiological performance and environmental factors influences S. plana distribution, densities and even survival, with natural consequences on its commercial importance.  相似文献   

Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters     

Giovanni Dolif  Andre Engelbrecht  Alessandro Jatobá  Antônio José Dias da Silva  José Orlando Gomes  Marcos R. S. Borges  Carlos A. Nobre  Paulo Victor R. de Carvalho 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1831-1847

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.  相似文献   

Removal of Copper,Nickel and Zinc Ions from Aqueous Solution by Chitosan‐8‐Hydroxyquinoline Beads     

Francisco C. F. Barros  Francisco W. Sousa  Rivelino M. Cavalcante  Tecia V. Carvalho  Francisco S. Dias  Danilo C. Queiroz  Luiz C. G. Vasconcellos  Ronaldo F. Nascimento 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2008,36(3):292-298

In this work, 8‐hydroxyquinoline is used as the active sites in cross‐linked chitosan beads with epichlorohydrin (CT‐8HQ). The CT‐8HQ material was shaped in bead form and used for heavy metal removal from aqueous solution. The study was carried out at pH 5.0 with both batch and column methods and the maximum adsorption capacity of metal ions by the CT‐8HQ was attained in 4 h in the batch experiment. The adsorption capacity order was: Cu²⁺ > Ni²⁺ > Zn²⁺ for both mono‐ and multi‐component systems with batch conditions. From breakthrough curves with column conditions, the adsorption capacity followed the order Cu²⁺ > Zn²⁺ > Ni²⁺ for both mono‐ and multi‐component systems. The CT‐8HQ beads maintained good metal adsorption capacity for all five cycles with absorbent restoration achieved with the use of 1.0 mol L^–1 HCl solution, with 90% regeneration.  相似文献   

Improving reservoir description by using geostatistical and multivariate data analysis techniques     

Henrique Garcia Pereira  António Costa e Silva  Amilcar Soares  Luis Ribeiro  Justino de Carvalho 《Mathematical Geosciences》1990,22(8):879-913

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Geochemical evolution of laterites from two areas of the semiarid region in Bahia State, Brazil     

Ilson Guimaraes Carvalho  Suely S.P. Mestrinho  Vanice M.S. Fontes  Om P. Goel  Francisco de A. Souza 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》1991,40(1-3)

Lateritic covers developed during the Pleistocene in two distinct areas (Gentio do Ouro District and Sento Sé) of the State of Bahia, Brazil, have been investigated geochemically. Samples of the bedrock (gabbros, from the Gentio do Ouro District, and silicate facies iron formation and associated iron-rich banded carbonates, from the Sento Sé Area) and the lateritic products (latosols, cuirasses and pisolites) were analyzed for major and selected trace elements (Co, Cu, Cr, Ni, V, Pb, Ba, Au and ree). The purpose of the research was to study the geochemical evolution of the laterites and the relationship of weathering processes to secondary gold mineralization.Four types of element mobilities are recognized, defined by progressive depletion (type A) or enrichment (type C) in the sequence latosol-cuirasse-pisolite or by extreme enrichment (type B) or depletion (type D) in the cuirasse. Cr and V have similar behavior (type C), whatever the type of parent rock: however, when the original rocks are gabbros, Co, Cu and Ni demonstrate behavior A, B and A, respectively. Also Ti has the same type of mobility (type A), whatever the type of parent rock.The concentrations of some residual elements, e.g., Ti, V, Mn, Fe and Au, are inherited from the original rocks, that is, they exhibit higher values in the lateritic materials on parent rocks in which their contents are high.The enrichment of ree in the lateritic materials on iron-rich carbonates is attributed to relatively basic and reducing conditions at depth. This environment allowed the ions of these elements (Ce, Sm, Eu and Yb in the reduced ionic form) to stay in solution along with Fe²⁺. At shallow depht, under oxidizing conditions, the iron oxyhydroxides adsorbed the ree ions. This adsorption was more effective for La, Ce and Yb ions.The ree contents in the lateritic products from gabbros indicate a depletion of hree plus Eu, Nd and Sm are also depleted in cuirasses and Ce is depleted in pisolites. The loss of these ree and the slight concentration of lree in the red latosol of the Gentio do Ouro District are attributed to partial leaching of ree by a relatively acidic solution. The adsorption of ree by iron oxyhydroxides was less intense here than in the weathering of the iron-rich carbonates at Sento Sé Area. It was also more effective for La and Ce (ions). This type of weathering solution may be generated from oxidation of the accessory pyrite present in the gabbros of the Gentio do Ouro District. It may dissolve primary gold which then precipitates on encountering basic conditions at depth.  相似文献