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ABSTRACTThe impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
73.
We tested attenuation relations obtained for different regions of the world to verify their suitability to predict strong-motion data recorded by Medellín and Aburrá Valley Accelerographic Networks. We used as comparison criteria, the average of the difference between the observed and the predicted data as a function of epicenter distance and its standard deviation. We also used the approach developed by Sherbaum et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 94:2164–2185, 2004) that provides a method to evaluate the overall goodness-of-fit of ground-motion prediction equations. The predictive models selected use a generic focal depth. We found that this parameter has an important influence in the ground-motion predictions and must be taken into account as an independent variable. We also found important to characterize the local soil amplification to improve the attenuation relations. We found empirical relations for peak horizontal acceleration PGA and velocity PGV based on the Kamiyama and Yanagisawa (Soils Found 26:16–32, 1986) approach. $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} (PGA)=0.5886M_L -1.0902\log _{10}(R)-0.0035H+C_{st}\pm 0.\text{29} \end{aligned}$$ $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} (PGV)=0.7255M_L -1.8812\log _{10}(R)-0.0016H+C_{st}\pm 0.36 \end{aligned}$$ where PGA is measured in cm/s $^{2}$ and PGV in cm/s, $M_{L}$ is local magnitude in the range 2.8–6.5, $R$ is epicentral distance up to 290 km, $H$ is focal depth in km and $C_{st}$ is a coefficient that accounts for the site response due to soil conditions of each recording station. The introduction of focal depth and local site conditions as independent variables, minimize the residuals and the dispersion of the predicted data. We conclude that $H$ and $C_{st}$ are sensitive parameters, having a strong influence on the strong-motion predictions. Using the same functional form, we also propose an empirical relation for the root mean square acceleration a $_\mathrm{rms}$ : $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} \left( {a_{rms} } \right)=0.4797M_L -1.1665\log _{10} (R)-0.00201H+C_{st}\pm 0.40 \end{aligned}$$ where a $_\mathrm{rms}$ is measured in cm/s $^{2}$ , from the S-wave arrival and using a window length equal to the rupture duration. The other variables are the same as those for PGA and PGV. The site correction coefficients $C_{st}$ found for PGA, PGV and a $_\mathrm{rms}$ show a similar trend indicating a good correlation with the soil conditions of the recording sites. 相似文献
74.
Benjamín Villalobos-Castañeda Raúl Cortés-Martínez Nuria Segovia Otoniel Buenrostro-Delgado Ofelia Morton-Bermea Ruth Alfaro-Cuevas-Villanueva 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(23):1490
Lerma River is one of the largest rivers in Mexico. Over the past 20 years, unplanned population growth occurred along its course and the river has been used as the only outlet for industrial and domestic wastewater disposal. The aim of the present study was to determine trace metals such as Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Fe, Pb, and arsenic concentrations at the upper layer of sediments of the Lerma River meander in La Piedad, Michoacan, Mexico. Sediment samples were collected from eight different sites during the rainy and dry seasons. All samples were physically characterized, and concentration values of trace metals and As were determined. On the basis of protection criteria for freshwater sediments, concentrations of Fe, Zn, Cu, Ni, and Pb were found to exceed the lowest effect level; moreover, the concentrations were found to exceed the severe effect level at some sites, particularly for Cu. Statistical analyses showed significant differences between sampling seasons for Fe and As, and among sites for Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb. In addition, the enrichment factor indicates the following order Zn > Cr > Cu > Ni > Pb > As, and the geoaccumulation index (I geo) indicates contamination in the following order Zn > Cr > Cu > Ni > As > Pb. The Lerma River meander in La Piedad shows a reduction in pollution by trace metals and arsenic near the drain area and downstream of the meander. However, there are significantly higher concentrations of these elements in sediments of sites located in the middle part of the city. 相似文献
75.
Maria Cortès Maria Carmen Llasat Joan Gilabert Montserrat Llasat-Botija Marco Turco Raül Marcos Juan Pedro Martín Vide Lluís Falcón 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(1):39-60
This contribution explores the evolution of the flood risk in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (MAB; Northeast Spain) from 1981 to 2015, and how it has been affected by changes in land use, population and precipitation. To complete this study, we analysed PRESSGAMA and INUNGAMA databases to look for all the information related to the floods and flash floods that have affected the chosen region. The “Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros”, a state insurance company for extraordinary risks, provided data on economic damage. The extreme precipitation trend was analysed by the Fabra Observatory and El Prat-Airport Observatory, and daily precipitation data were provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Population data were obtained from the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (IDESCAT). Changes in land use were estimated from the land use maps for Catalonia corresponding to 1956, 1993, 2000, 2005 and 2009. Prevention measures like rainwater tanks and improvements to the drainage system were also been considered. The specific case of Barcelona is presented, a city recognised by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction as a model city for urban resilience to floods. The evolution of flood events in the MAB does not show any significant trend for this period. We argue that the evolution in floods can be explained, at least in part, by the lack of trend in extreme precipitation indices, and also by the improvements in flood prevention measures. 相似文献
76.
Dresing Nina Gómez-Herrero Raúl Heber Bernd Müller-Mellin Reinhold Wimmer-Schweingruber Robert Klassen Andreas 《Solar physics》2009,256(1-2):409-425
The period between 21 June and 8 October, 2007 (Carrington rotations 2058 to 2061), comprising the Ulysses ecliptic plane crossing, was characterized by low solar activity. Excluding the small solar energetic particle events observed during July, the ion increases observed in the inner heliosphere between 100?keV/n and 10?MeV/n were associated with Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs). In this work, we investigate CIR-related ion increases using multipoint observations from Ulysses, ACE, and the twin STEREO spacecraft. The ballistic backmapping technique has been used to correlate in situ observations of these spacecraft and remote-sensing observations of coronal holes. Although the radial, longitudinal and latitudinal separation of the spacecraft (except Ulysses) are relatively small, we find discrepancies when a detailed comparison of narrow structures like stream interfaces and CIR-associated shocks is performed. Therefore we concentrate on the two CIR events from day 5 to day 10 of August 2007 and from day 25 to day 31 of August 2007, which lend themselves to a more undisturbed comparison. Using the multi-spacecraft measurements we could determine a radial gradient of 230±30% AU?1, which is consistent with previous results by van Hollebeke et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 83, 4723, 1978) of ～?350% AU?1 using Helios and Pioneer data.
相似文献77.
Evaluation of drill cuttings in prediction of penetration rate by using coarseness index and mean particle size in percussive drilling 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Raşİt Altindag 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2004,22(3):417-425
Penetration rate of rocks is influenced by geological parameters, machine parameters and operating parameters. This paper
presents a study on the coarseness index (CI) and mean particle size (d) to evaluate the penetration rate (PR) in percussive drilling in a limestone and in a marl quarry. The coarseness index was determined from sieve analysis. The
mean particle size (d) and specific surface area (SSA) were determined by using Rossin-Rammler-Sperling (RRS) graph for each hole samples. The relationships between PR and CI, d, SSA were investigated by regression analysis. The best lines were selected in these graphs. Reliable relations were found between
penetration rate and coarseness index and mean particle size. Finally, it was seen that the coarseness index and mean particle
size could be used in evaluating the penetration rate in percussive drilling operations.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
78.
Body-wave Attenuation in the Region of Garda, Italy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Raúl R. Castro Marco Massa Paolo Augliera Francesca Pacor 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(7):1351-1366
We analyzed the spectral amplitude decay with hypocentral distance of P and S waves generated by 76 small magnitude earthquakes (ML 0.9–3.8) located in the Garda region, Central-Eastern Alps, Italy. These events were recorded by 18 stations with velocity
sensors, in a distance range between 8 and 120 km. We calculated nonparametric attenuation functions (NAF) and estimated the
quality factor Q of both body waves at 17 different frequencies between 2 and 25 Hz. Assuming a homogeneous model we found that the Q frequency dependence of P and S can be approximated with the functions Q
P
= 65 f
0.9
and Q
S
= 160 f
0.6
, respectively. At 2 Hz the Q
S
/Q
P
ratio reaches the highest value of 2.8. At higher frequencies Q
S
/Q
P
varies between 0.7 and 1.7, suggesting that for this frequency band scattering may be an important attenuation mechanism
in the region of Garda. To explore the variation of Q in depth, we estimated Q at short (r ≤ 30 km) and intermediate (35–90 km) distance paths. We found that in the shallow crust P waves attenuate more than S (1.3 < Q
S
/Q
P
< 2.5). Moreover, P waves traveling along paths in the lower crust (depths approximately greater than 30 km) attenuate more than S waves. To quantify the observed variability of Q in depth we considered a three-layer model and inverted the NAF to estimate Q in each layer. We found that in the crust Q increases with depth. However, in the upper mantle (~40–50 km depth) Q decreases and in particular the high frequency Q
S
(f > 9 Hz) has values similar to those estimated for the shallow layer of the crust. 相似文献
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80.
Bottom sediments near shipyards are often susceptible to receiving accidental spills of TBT and metals or their degradation products from hull scraping of antifouling system paints applied prior to 2008, when the AFS Convention 2001 was not in force. We investigated TBT and metal contamination of sediments near the shipyards of a small marina located in Busan, Korea and found that they were highly contaminated with TBT, Cu, and Zn. To better understand the environmental impacts and to make an optimal remediation plan, we characterized individual antifouling fragments in terms of metal and TBT contents, magnetic properties, and grain-size. Coarse-sized individual antifouling fragments exhibited simultaneously high levels of TBT, metals and high magnetic susceptibility, and appeared to be a major source of pollution in the sediment. Therefore, magnetic separation in combination with size-separation appears to be a cost-effective remediation method to remove the TBT and metals from contaminated shipyard sediments. 相似文献