Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods     

Tomasz Niedzielski  Wiesław Kosek 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(2):83-92

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.  相似文献   

Distances to planetary nebulae with [WR]-type central stars     

Sławomir K. Górny 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,238(1):79-82

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Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines     

Ewa GłOwacka 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):121-132

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.  相似文献   

The Ms = 6.2, June 15, 1995 Aigion earthquake (Greece): evidence for low angle normal faulting in the Corinth rift     

P. Bernard  P. Briole  B. Meyer  H. Lyon-Caen  J.-M. Gomez  C. Tiberi  C. Berge  R. Cattin  D. Hatzfeld  C. Lachet  B. Lebrun  A. Deschamps  F. Courboulex  C. Larroque  A. Rigo  D. Massonnet  P. Papadimitriou  J. Kassaras  D. Diagourtas  K. Makropoulos  G. Veis  E. Papazisi  C. Mitsakaki  V. Karakostas  E. Papadimitriou  D. Papanastassiou  M. Chouliaras  G. Stavrakakis 《Journal of Seismology》1997,1(2):131-150

We present the results of a multidisciplinary study of the M_s = 6.2, 1995, June 15, Aigion earthquake (Gulf of Corinth, Greece). In order to constrain the rupture geometry, we used all available data from seismology (local, regional and teleseismic records of the mainshock and of aftershocks), geodesy (GPS and SAR interferometry), and tectonics. Part of these data were obtained during a postseismic field study consisting of the surveying of 24 GPS points, the temporary installation of 20 digital seismometers, and a detailed field investigation for surface fault break. The Aigion fault was the only fault onland which showed detectable breaks (< 4 cm). We relocated the mainshock hypocenter at 10 km in depth, 38 ° 21.7 N, 22 ° 12.0 E, about 15 km NNE to the damaged city of Aigion. The modeling of teleseismic P and SH waves provides a seismic moment M_o = 3.4 10¹⁸ N.m, a well constrained focal mechanism (strike 277 °, dip 33 °, rake – 77°), at a centroidal depth of 7.2 km, consistent with the NEIC and the revised Harvard determinations. It thus involved almost pure normal faulting in agreement with the tectonics of the Gulf. The horizontal GPS displacements corrected for the opening of the gulf (1.5 cm/year) show a well-resolved 7 cm northward motion above the hypocenter, which eliminates the possibility of a steep, south-dipping fault plane. Fitting the S-wave polarization at SERG, 10 km from the epicenter, with a 33° northward dipping plane implies a hypocentral depth greater than 10 km. The north dipping fault plane provides a poor fit to the GPS data at the southern points when a homogeneous elastic half-space is considered: the best fit geodetic model is obtained for a fault shallower by 2 km, assuming the same dip. We show with a two-dimensional model that this depth difference is probably due to the distorting effect of the shallow, low-rigidity sediments of the gulf and of its edges. The best-fit fault model, with dimensions 9 km E–W and 15 km along dip, and a 0.87 m uniform slip, fits InSAR data covering the time of the earthquake. The fault is located about 10 km east-northeast to the Aigion fault, whose surface breaks thus appears as secondary features. The rupture lasted 4 to 5 s, propagating southward and upward on a fault probably outcropping offshore, near the southern edge of the gulf. In the shallowest 4 km, the slip – if any – has not exceeded about 30 cm. This geometry implies a large directivity effect in Aigion, in agreement with the accelerogram aig which shows a short duration (2 s) and a large amplitude (0.5 g) of the direct S acceleration. This unusual low-angle normal faulting may have been favoured by a low-friction, high pore pressure fault zone, or by a rotation of the stress directions due to the possible dip towards the south of the brittle-ductile transition zone. This fault cannot be responsible for the long term topography of the rift, which is controlled by larger normal faults with larger dip angles, implying either a seldom, or a more recently started activity of such low angle faults in the central part of the rift.  相似文献   

Joule heating of Io's ionosphere by unipolar induction currents     

Floyd Herbert  Bernard R. Lichtenstein 《Icarus》1980,44(2):296-304

The unexpectedly large scale height of Io's ionosphere (Kliore, A., et al., 1975, Icarus24, 407–410) together with the relatively large molecular weight of the likely principal constituent, SO₂ (Pearl, J., et al., 1979, Nature280, 755–758), suggest a high ionospheric temperature. Electrical induction in Io's ionosphere due to the corotating plasma bound to the Jovian magnetosphere is one possible source for attainment of such high temperatures. Accordingly, unipolar induction models were constructed to calculate ionospheric joule heating numerically. Heating rates produced by highly simplified models lie in the range 10^?9 to 10^?8 W/m³. These heating rates are lower than those determined from uv photodissociative heating models (Kumar, S., 1980, Geophys. Res. Lett.7, 9–12) at low levels in the ionosphere but are comparable in the upper ionosphere. The low electrical heating rate throughout most of the ionosphere is due to the power limitation imposed by the Alfvén wings which complete the electrical circuit (Neubauer, F.M., 1980, J. Geophys. Res.85, 1171–1178). Contrary to the pre-Voyager calculations of Cloutier, P. A., et al. (1978, Astrophys. Space Sci.55, 93–112), our numerical results show that the J × B force density due to unipolar induction currents in the ionosphere is much less than the gravitational force density when the combined mass of the neutral species is included. The binding and coupling of the ionosphere is principally due to the relatively dense (possibly localized) neutral SO₂ atmosphere. In regions where the ions and neutrals are collisionally coupled the ionosphere will not be stripped off by the J × B forces. However at a level above that (to which the ions move by diffusion only) the charged species would be removed. Thus there appears to be no need to postulate the existence of an intrinsic Ionian magnetic field as suggested by Kivelson, M. G., et al. (79, Science 205, 491–493) and Southwood, S. J., et al. (1980, J. Geophys. Res., in press) in order to retain the observed ionosphere.  相似文献   

Circumstellar dust and variability of carbon stars     

Janina Krempeć-Krygier  Bernard Krygier 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,168(1):111-117

A sample of 35 variable carbon stars has been considered. The stellar temperatures, radii, absolute luminosities, masses, and mass loss rates have been estimated. Then the spherical circumstellar dust shells around the analysed stars are discussed and the differences in the infrared properties between semi-regular, irregular, and long-period variables are indicated.  相似文献   

Évolution de l'onde semi-diurne M2 de la marée à Brest de 1846 à 2005     

Nicolas Pouvreau  Belén Martin Miguez  Bernard Simon  Guy Wöppelmann 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(11):802-808

The work of searching, recovering and quality control of ancient sea-level measurements at Brest is presented. This work enables us to complete a study carried out by Cartwright in 1972, which showed a decrease in the tidal M2 semi-diurnal amplitude of 1% per century. After including these ancient data, as well as the last four decades of observations in the analysis, our results show an increase of the amplitude of M2 after 1960 and a decrease before 1880, suggesting a long-period oscillation rather than a steady secular trend. To cite this article: N. Pouvreau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

Assessment of mercury mobility and bioavailability by fractionation method in sediments from coastal zone inundated by the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Thailand     

Leonard Boszke  Artur Kowalski  Witold Szczuciński  Grzegorz Rachlewicz  Stanisław Lorenc  Jerzy Siepak 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(4):527-536

The 26 December 2004 tsunami covered significant portion of a coastal zone with a blanket of potentially contaminated sediments. In this report are presented results on mercury concentrations in sediments deposited by the tsunami in a coastal zone of Thailand. Since the total mercury concentrations are insufficient to assess mercury mobility and bioavailability in sediment, its fractionation was applied. Sediments were sampled within 50 days after the event and analyzed by sequential extraction method. The procedure of sequential extraction involved five subsequent stages performed with solutions of chloroform, deionized water, 0.5 M HCl, 0.2 M NaOH, and aqua regia. The mean concentration of total mercury in sediments was 119 ± 50 ng g⁻¹ dry mass (range 66–230). The fractionation revealed that mercury is mainly bound to the least bioavailable sulphides 75 ± 6% (range 62–86), organomercury compounds 14 ± 7% (range 4–26), and humic matter 9 ± 7% (range 1–27). The lowest contributions bring fractions of water-soluble mercury 0.8 ± 1.0% (range 0.1–3.6) and acid soluble mercury 0.9 ± 0.5% (range 0.2–2.1). Although, the total mercury content is similar in a reference sample and in the tsunami sediments, the highly toxic organomercury fraction contribution is higher in the latter. The results were compared with chemical and sedimentological properties of the sediments but no significant correlations were obtained between them.  相似文献   

Impacts of Holocene climatic variations on alluvial fan activity below snowpatches in subarctic Québec     

Violaine Lafortune  Louise Filion  Bernard Htu 《Geomorphology》2006,76(3-4):375-391

In the Lake Guillaume-Delisle area of subarctic Québec, storm-generated alluvial fans have been active sporadically throughout the Holocene. In this study, we propose that the persistence of late-lying snowpatches in fan catchments during Holocene cold episodes promoted alluvial fan activity by lowering the precipitation threshold required to trigger a torrential event. This hypothesis was tested by characterizing the depositional processes responsible for alluvial fan formation below snowpatches, and by reconstructing the Holocene alluvial fan activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentary analyses conducted on seven alluvial fans revealed that they were deposited by torrential activity leading to waterlaid, transient, or hyperconcentrated deposition. The chronology of the storm-generated alluvial fans — based on 22 radiocarbon dates — indicates that torrential activity was enhanced during the cooler Late Holocene (i.e., after ca. 3500 cal. yr BP). Snowier winters and cooler summers were beneficial to nival activity, allowing the persistence of larger snowpatches throughout the summer and fall seasons. Rainfall-induced thaw of such snowpatches during rainstorm events is inferred to have contributed to alluvial fan activity by increasing water availability. Three peaks of alluvial activity occurred during the Late Holocene (2950–2750, 1900–1400, and 800–300 cal. yr BP) and are indicative of increased storminess resulting in higher fan activity. Increased fan activity during cooler episodes was concurrent with increased runoff activity in the immediate pronival area. This stresses the importance of nivation below snowpatches and pinpoints the role of nivation in enhancing geomorphological activity during period of cooler and more humid climate in subarctic environments.  相似文献   

Surface temperature differences between minerals in crystalline rocks: Implications for granular disaggregation of granites through thermal fatigue   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Miguel Gmez-Heras  Bernard J. Smith  Rafael Fort 《Geomorphology》2006,78(3-4):236-249

Thermal expansion differences between minerals within rocks under insolation have previously been assumed to drive breakdown by means of granular disaggregation. However, there have been no definitive demonstrations of the efficacy of this weathering mechanism. Different surface temperatures between minerals should magnify thermal expansion differences, and thus subject adjacent minerals to repeated stresses that might cause breakdown through fatigue failure. This work confirms the existence of surface temperature differences between minerals in granitic rocks under simulated short-term temperature fluctuations so as to discriminate their potential for initiating granular disaggregation. The influence of colour, as a surrogate for albedo, and crystal size, as a function of thermal mass are specifically identified because of their ease of quantification. Four rock types with a range of these properties were examined, and subjected to repeated short-term temperature cycles by radiative heating and cooling under laboratory conditions. Results show that while albedo is the main control for overall and individual maximum temperatures, crystal size is the main factor controlling higher temperature differences between minerals. Thus, stones with large differences of mineral sizes can undergo magnified stresses due to thermal expansion differences.  相似文献