Inclusive Multiple Models(IMM) for predicting groundwater levels and treating heterogeneity     

Rahman Khatibi  Ata Allah Nadiri 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(2):713-724

An explicit model management framework is introduced for predictive Groundwater Levels(GWL),particularly suitable to Observation Wells(OWs)with sparse and possibly heterogeneous data.The framework implements Multiple Models(MM)under the architecture of organising them at levels,as follows:(i)Level 0:treat heterogeneity in the data,e.g.Self-Organised Mapping(SOM)to classify the OWs;and decide on model structure,e.g.formulate a grey box model to predict GWLs.(ii)Level 1:construct MMs,e.g.two Fuzzy Logic(FL)and one Neurofuzzy(NF)models.(iii)Level 2:formulate strategies to combine the MM at Level 1,for which the paper uses Artificial Neural Networks(Strategy 1)and simple averaging(Strategy 2).Whilst the above model management strategy is novel,a critical view is presented,according to which modelling practices are:Inclusive Multiple Modelling(IMM)practices contrasted with existing practices,branded by the paper as Exclusionary Multiple Modelling(EMM).Scientific thinking over IMMs is captured as a framework with four dimensions:Model Reuse(MR),Hierarchical Recursion(HR),Elastic Learning Environment(ELE)and Goal Orientation(GO)and these together make the acronym of RHEO.Therefore,IMM-RHEO is piloted in the aquifer of Tabriz Plain with sparse and possibly heterogeneous data.The results provide some evidence that(i)IMM at two levels improves on the accuracy of individual models;and(ii)model combinations in IMM practices bring‘model-learning’into fashion for learning with the goal to explain baseline conditions and impacts of subsequent management changes.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal analysis of road traffic accident fatality in Bangladesh integrating newspaper accounts and gridded population data     

Munshi Khaledur Rahman  Thomas Crawford  Thomas W. Schmidlin 《GeoJournal》2018,83(4):645-661

Road traffic accidents pose serious threats to human lives and often cause premature deaths, disabilities, and socioeconomic impacts. The objective of this study is to analyze the fatal road traffic accidents in Bangladesh by performing a space–time characterization of fatality rates involving an innovative newspaper-based method in concert with gridded population data to construct a road traffic fatality database. Kernel density estimation, temporal data plots and space–time pattern mining tools that combine the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic with the Mann–Kendall test are used to describe spatio-temporal hotspots/coldspots and trends. Results show different patterns between the urban and rural areas of Bangladesh and higher rates of road traffic accidents occur in the metropolitan regions (Dhaka) and in a northern region centered on Sirajganj area. Most of the road traffic accidents took place in between 9:00 and 12:00 pm while the accident rates remain low between 12:00 and 3:00 am. Spacetime analysis results reveal a core region of persistently high rates along with four smaller regions with high and intensifying rates. The output of this study could be useful to reduce road traffic fatalities, injuries, increase awareness, and adopt necessary interventions for public safety through integrating both the local, regional, and central level decision makers of public transportation policy and issues in Bangladesh. The approach has potential to be translated to other developing countries.  相似文献   

FEG-EPMA mapping and Fe-Ti oxide mineral chemistry of Brahmaputra River sediments in Bangladesh: provenance and petrogenetic implications     

A. S. M. Mehedi Hasan  Ismail Hossain  Md. Aminur Rahman  Md. Sazzadur Rahman  Mohammad Nazim Zaman  Pradip Kumar Biswas 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(18):567

The present research deals with the FEG-EPMA mapping and Fe-Ti oxide mineral chemistry of Brahmaputra River sediments in Bangladesh. Major heavy minerals in the sediments consist of garnet (8.5–21.3%), kyanite (5.35–11.9%), monazite (2.3–5.3%), sillimanite (1.8–4.7%), zircon (3.6–9.1%), and a considerable amount of opaques mainly Fe-Ti oxide minerals (23.1–35.4%). The detrital Fe-Ti oxide minerals carry significant clues to the parent rocks or sources. In these contexts, detrital opaques (Fe-Ti oxides) have been analyzed with an electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA). These opaques (Fe-Ti oxide) display six types of textural patterns, dominantly seriate with granular, emulsion, and acicular sandwich structures and trellis type of textural patterns. These textural patterns belong to five intergrowths of Fe-Ti oxide minerals such as (1) ilmenite-hematite, (2) magnetite-ilmenite, (3) hematite-rutile, (4) ilmenite-hematite-rutile, and (5) ilmenite-rutile, where ilmenite-hematite intergrowth is common. Alteration is seen in both exsolved and unexsolved ilmenites. Textural patterns and mineral chemistry of the studied ilmenite minerals provide lines of evidence of low-temperature magmatic inheritance, later modified by diffusional processes. The estimated temperature and oxygen fugacity from the magnetite-ilmenite exsolution range from 547.6 to 558.2 °C and from 10^?21.4 to 10^?21.7, respectively. The data are also consistent with hematite-ilmenite temperature (between 537 and 540 °C) and oxygen fugacity (10^?21.7 to 10^?21.9) measurements in Cox’s Bazar beach placers. These temperatures and oxygen fugacities specify Fe-Ti oxide assemblages equilibrated in a T-fO₂ field very near to the FMQ buffer curve suggesting a crustal source (magmatic and/or metamorphic), which is modified significantly by metamorphic processes.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal analysis of temperature variability,trend, and magnitude in the Hindu Kush region using Monte Carlo and Sen’s slope approaches     

Muhammad Dawood  Atta-ur Rahman  Sami Ullah  Ghani Rahman  Kamran Azam 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(16):471

The present study explores the spatial and temporal deviations in temperature using Monte Carlo (MC) and Sen’s slope (SS) approaches in the Hindu Kush (HK) region. Climate change holds sturdy association against the temperature trend that has generated adverse impacts in the form of floods. In this attempt, for trend analysis, temperature has been selected as a meteorological parameter. This study mainly focuses on exploring the tendency in average temperature with respect to time and the consequential flood recurrences in the region. For the current study, data regarding temperature were typically collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department. In the study region, there are a total of seven meteorological station falls namely Dir, Chitral, Drosh, Saidu, Malam Jabba, Kalam, and Timergara. The temperature time series data was calculated and analyzed using MC and SS approaches for trend detection in order to demonstrate the kind of fluctuation in the Hindu Kush region. The resultant analysis further revealed that in the meteorological station of Dir, a more significant positive trend (α?=?0.0001) was found in mean monthly maximum, minimum, and monthly normal temperature. Likewise, at Drosh, a positive trend is detected in mean monthly maximum (α?=?0.04), monthly minimum (α?=?0.003), and monthly average (α?=?0.0005). Moreover, at Saidu met station, there is also a trend detected in temperature sub-variables such as monthly maximum (α?=?0.0001) and monthly minimum (α?=?0.001). In addition to these, at Kalam, there is a temperature trend noted for monthly minimum (α?=?0.01) and monthly average (α?=?0.02). Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that there is no trend detected in the remaining stations, i.e., Chitral, Malam Jabba, Drosh, and Timergara. The overall analysis discovered that there is a sturdy relationship between climate change phenomenon and temperature variability. After using SS test to the temperature data of mean monthly maximum (TMMMax), the results explored that Kalam station grips the highest magnitude, i.e., Q?=?0.76; however, Timergara shows the lowermost, i.e., Q?=???0.34. For the monthly minimum temperature (TMMMin), at Kalam again, the highest value (Q?=?0.005) was detected; however, other stations revealed a negative trend, except Drosh which express no change in terms of magnitude. Similarly, in terms of monthly normal temperature (TMNor), Timergara station (Q?=???0.4) verified a negative trend magnitude and Malam Jabba station again trendless. Among all, the met station of Malam Jabba which holds an altitude of 2591 m is a hilly station just followed by Kalam having 2103 m height; however, Dir holds 1375 m height and the rest of the met stations show low elevation. The main reason for the temperature difference is the altitude of the study region.  相似文献   

Examining the rainfall–topography relationship using non-stationary modelling technique in semi-arid Aseer region,Saudi Arabia     

Javed Mallick  Ram Karan Singh  Roohul Abad Khan  Chander Kumar Singh  Nabil Ben Kahla  Essam Ibrahim Warrag  Saiful Islam  Atiqur Rahman 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(9):215

The mountainous region of Aseer, corresponding to the Afromontane phytogeographic region, is an eco-sensitive zone and has complex relationship between topography and rainfall. The region is located inland of the red sea escarpment edge in the west. Therefore, rainfall can occur during any month of the year in the mountain of the high Aseer region when moist air forces up the escarpment from the red sea. Monitoring the rainfall data and its topographical elevation variable in Aseer region is an essential requirement for feasible and accurate rainfall-based data for different applications, such as hydrological and ecological resource management in rugged terrain and remote areas. The relationship of elevation and rainfall are spatially non-stationary, non-linear, scale dependent, and often modelled by conventional regression models. Therefore, a local modelling technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR), was applied to deal with non-stationary, non-linear, scale-dependent problems. The GWR using topoclimatic data (elevation and rainfall) to analyse the cumulative rainfall data for rainy months (March to June) of the 4 years estimated from CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations) product for Aseer region. The bandwidth (scale-size) of the Aseer region rainfall–elevation relationship has stabilised at round off 12 km. By selecting the suitable bandwidth, the spatial pattern of the rainfall–elevation relationship was significantly enhanced by using the GWR than the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model. GWR local modelling techniques estimated well in terms of accuracy, predictive power and decreased residual autocorrelation. Additionally, GWR assesses the significance of local statistic at each location and identified the location of spatial clusters with local regression coefficients significantly improved as compared with global OLS model, thereby highlighting local variations. Therefore, the GWR, local modelling approach managed to produce more accurate estimates by taking into account local characteristics.  相似文献   

The Perception and Impact of Natural Hazards on Fishing Communities of Kutubdia Island,Bangladesh   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Munshi Khaledur Rahman  Thomas W. Schmidlin 《Geographical review》2014,104(1):71-86

Natural hazards lead to unexpected and often dire situations for people who have few resources and little control over the environment in which they live. Kutubdia, an island in the southeastern part of Bangladesh, experiences frequent natural hazards that impact the livelihoods of its people and put them in vulnerable situations. The research elaborated here is the result of 300 household surveys collected from persons in Kutubdia's fishing communities. The surveys investigated the perception and consequences of natural hazards on the fishing communities. The results indicated that the experience of natural hazards—cyclones, erosion, and flooding are examples—have increased over the years. Coastal erosion displaced seventy‐two (24 percent) fishers, forcing them to relocate their houses several times and imposing multiple challenges on their lives. Literacy was not associated with perceptions of environmental changes or changes in fishing. However, young fishers—less than forty years of age—perceived that environmental changes had affected fish catch more than their older colleagues.  相似文献   

Distribution of tritium and stable isotopes in precipitation in Syria     

Abdul Rahman Al Charideh  Boulos Abou Zakhem 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):832-843

Abstract

The paper discusses aspects of the isotopic composition (tritium and stable isotopes) of precipitation, which was monitored from 2000 to 2003 at 12 stations in Syria. The seasonal variations in δ¹⁸O are smaller at the western stations than at the eastern ones due to low seasonal temperature variations. A good correlation between δ²H and δ¹⁸O was obtained for each station, and the slopes of the local meteoric water lines are significantly lower than the Global Meteoric Water Line. Values of d-excess decrease from 19‰ at the western stations to 13‰ at the eastern ones, indicating the influence of precipitation generated by air masses coming from the Mediterranean Sea. A reliable altitude effect represented by depletion of heavy stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ²H), of about??0.21‰ and??1.47‰ per 100 m elevation, respectively, was observed. Monthly tritium contents in precipitation, and seasonal variations, are less at the western stations than at the eastern ones. The weighted mean tritium values are between 3 and 9 TU, and increase with distance from the Syrian coast by 1 TU/100 km.

Citation Al Charideh, A. R. & Abou Zakhem, B. (2010) Distribution of tritium and stable isotopes in precipitation in Syria. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 832–843.  相似文献   

First Record of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Porpita porpita</Emphasis> (Cnidaria: Hydrozoa) from the coral reef ecosystem,Bangladesh     

M. Shah Nawaz Chowdhury  S. M. Sharifuzzaman  Sayedur Rahman Chowdhury  Md. Rashed-Un-Nabi  M. Shahadat Hossain 《Ocean Science Journal》2016,51(2):293-297

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Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique for flood estimation for two catchments in New South Wales,Australia     

Wilfredo Llacer Caballero  Ataur Rahman 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):1475-1488

The currently adopted rainfall-based design flood estimation method in Australia, known as design event approach (DEA), has a flaw that is widely criticized by the hydrologists. The DEA is based on the assumption that a rainfall depth of a certain frequency can be transformed to a flood peak of the same frequency by adopting the ‘representative values’ of other model input variables, such as temporal patterns and losses. To overcome the limitation associated with the DEA, this paper develops stochastic model inputs to apply Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCST) for design flood estimation. This uses data from 86 pluviograph stations and six catchments from eastern New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to regionalize the distributions of various input variables (e.g., rainfall duration, inter-event duration, intensity and temporal patterns and loss and routing characteristics) to simulate thousands of flood hydrographs using a nonlinear runoff routing model. The regionalized stochastic inputs are then applied with the MCST to two catchments in eastern NSW. The results indicate that the developed MCST provide more accurate flood quantile estimates than the DEA for the two test catchments. The particular advantage of the new MCST and stochastic design input variables is that it reduces the subjectivity in the selection of model input values in flood modeling. The developed MCST can be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries.  相似文献   

Effect of biodiesel on particulate numbers and composition emitted from turbocharged diesel engine     

A. N. Shah  G. Yun-shan  F. H. Shah  H. U. Mughal  Z. u. Rahman  A. Naveed 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2014,11(2):385-394

In present study a turbocharged, medium duty compression ignition engine was alternatively fuelled with biodiesel to investigate the changes in particulate matter composition, relative to that taken with diesel fuel. The engine was operated on an AC electrical dynamometer in accordance with an 8-mode, steady-state cycle. The numbers of particles were estimated through electrical low pressure impactor, while sulfates and trace metals were analyzed by ion chromatography and inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy, respectively. Nitric oxides and nitrogen dioxides were measured separately using SEMTECH-DS. Experimental results revealed that, on account of elevated ratios of nitrogen dioxide to nitrogen oxides, mean accumulation mode particles were 42 % lower with biodiesel. On the other hand, nuclei mode particles were higher with biodiesel, owing to heterogeneous nucleation and accounting for an increase in sulfate emissions up to 8 % with biodiesel as compared to diesel. On the average, trace metal emissions were significantly reduced showing 65–85.4 % reduction rates with biodiesel, relative to its counterpart. Further to this, individual congeners such as iron, calcium, and sodium were the predominant elements of the trace metals emitted from engine. The mean relative decrease in iron and calcium was 89–97.8 and 77.6–87 %, respectively, while the relative rise in sodium was in the range of 29–46 % with biodiesel. Further, elements such as zinc, chromium, and aluminum showed substantial abatement, whereas potassium, magnesium, and manganese exhibited irregular trends on account of variable engine loads and speeds during the various modes of cycle.  相似文献