Comparing the Correlative Holdridge Model to Mechanistic Biogeographical Models for Assessing Vegetation Distribution Response to Climatic Change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David N. Yates  Timothy G. F. Kittel  Regina Figge Cannon 《Climatic change》2000,44(1-2):59-87

A well-established and widely used correlative climate-vegetation model (Holdridge Life Zone model) was compared to three mechanistic simulation models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary climate and a set of future climates prescribed by three Global Circulation Model experiments. Output from the mechanistic models were from the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) intercomparison. Holdridge modeling approaches, using a Simple implementation (vegetation distribution based on biotemperature and precipitation alone) or a Full implementation (vegetation distribution based on biotemperature, precipitation, altitudinal region, latitudinal belt, and transitional vegetation zones), represented current potential natural U.S. vegetation poor to fair, respectively. The more sophisticated mechanistic models were superior at reproducing potential vegetation under current climate compared to Holdridge, although there was significant variability among these models. The Holdridge implementations generally showed similar or greater climate sensitivity with respect to spatial redistribution of vegetation compared to the mechanistic models run both with and without doubled CO₂ levels; however, the sensitivity of the Holdridge model depended on the implementation. Reduced sensitivity of the mechanistic models arises from direct (physiological) CO₂ effects and other compensating feedbacks not captured by the Holdridge model. The greater degree of physical realism in the mechanistic models makes them the model class of choice for climate impact assessment. However, under circumstances of limited data availability, computation resources, and access to mechanistic models and model expertise, simple correlational models such as Holdridge may be the only method that can be applied. The paper makes some recommendations on the use of the Holdridge model for impact assessment if it is the only available model.  相似文献   

The exceptional Oder flood in summer 1997 — distribution patterns of the oder discharge in the Pomeranian Bight     

Herbert Siegel  Wolfgang Matthäus  Regina Bruhn  Monika Gerth  Günther Nausch  Thomas Neumann  Christa Pohl 《Ocean Dynamics》1998,50(2-3):145-167

The exceptional Oder flood in summer 1997 was a unique event in order to investigate the impacts on and the consequences for the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea of about 6.5 km³ additional water loaded with nutrients and contaminants and discharged within only 5 weeks. About 15 institutions participated in this investigation in both the Szczecin Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bight. The Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde studied the water and nutrient inflow, the spreading of the Oder discharge, and the impact of the discharge on the ecosystem. The main topic of the presented investigations is a detailed study of the spatial and temporal spreading of the extreme river discharge in the Pomeranian Bight and the southern Baltic Sea by satellite data, ship observations and continuous buoy measurements as well as numerical modelling. The meteorological conditions were characterized by mainly easterly winds which guided the outflowing riverine water along the German coast into the Arkona Sea. The spatial and temporal development of the distribution patterns of the Oder discharge was monitored by about 80 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) images of NOAA satellites. Shipborne measurements showed that the vertical extent of the Oder plume ranged between 5 and 7 metres. The concentrations of inorganic nutrients, except higher silicate, were comparable to typical winter/early spring values (seasonal maximum) in this region. The high dilution effect of the flood water reduced the concentration of contaminants and thus, prevented a direct negative impact of trace metals and chlorinated organic compounds on the marine environment. Coupled physical-biochemical modelling in combination with SST-images demonstrated the temporal development and satellite data in the visible spectral range delivered the maximum extent of discharged river water into the southern Arkona Sea where a further western transport was limited by the upwelling region off Hiddensee. Thus, all detected effects of the Oder flood were confined to the Pomeranian Bight and the southern Arkona Sea, without long-term consequences for the ecosystem.  相似文献   

Multi-segment earthquakes and tsunami potential of the Aleutian megathrust     

Ian Shennan  Ronald Bruhn  George Plafker 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(1-2):7-13

Large to great earthquakes and related tsunamis generated on the Aleutian megathrust produce major hazards for both the area of rupture and heavily populated coastlines around much of the Pacific Ocean. Here we use paleoseismic records preserved in coastal sediments to investigate whether segment boundaries control the largest ruptures or whether in some seismic cycles segments combine to produce earthquakes greater than any observed since instrumented records began. Virtually the entire megathrust has ruptured since AD1900, with four different segments generating earthquakes >M8.0. The largest was the M9.2 great Alaska earthquake of March 1964 that ruptured ～800 km of the eastern segment of the megathrust. The tsunami generated caused fatalities in Alaska and along the coast as far south as California. East of the 1964 zone of deformation, the Yakutat microplate experienced two >M8.0 earthquakes, separated by a week, in September 1899. For the first time, we present evidence that earthquakes ～900 and ～1500 years ago simultaneously ruptured adjacent segments of the Aleutian megathrust and the Yakutat microplate, with a combined area ～15% greater than 1964, giving an earthquake of greater magnitude and increased tsunamigenic potential.  相似文献